To make a different and potential better system, I compared that model's prediction to the actual performance of six recent transitions from JPL to MLB: Hiroki Kuroda. Dice-K, Kenshin Kawakami, Colby Lewis, Koji Uehara, and Ryota Igarashi. These six pitchers were given equal weight in the translation. Last time, I present the coefficients as values to divide. This time to make things less confusing in the future, these values are to be multiplied by the JPL numbers.
Original System Coefficients
K - 0.93
BB - 1.81
HR - 1.24
New System Coefficients
K - 0.98
BB - 2.6
HR - 1.93
15th Percentile Coefficients
K - 0.83
BB - 3.34
HR - 2.53
85th Percentile Coefficients
K - 1.13
BB - 1.83
HR - 1.33
One of the improvements here is that we now have a range that covers 70% of the possible outcomes. Here is what Darvish's projections look like now over 200 IP:
15th percentile - 177 K, 137 BB, 15 HR, 4.49 FIP
50th percentile - 209 K, 106 BB, 12 HR, 3.47 FIP
85th percentile - 240 K, 75 BB, 8 HR, 2.43 FIP
If Darvish maintains this performance over five years, these are the following WARs and associated values he would be worth:
15th percentile - 5.9 WAR, 29.5 MM
50th percentile - 13.9 WAR, 69.5 MM
85th percentile - 24 WAR, 120 MM
It appears that my first approximation of Darvish's value may have been a bit bullish. It was based on an aggressive projection and an aggressive assumption on contract inflation (about 10% as opposed to my normal 5% assumption). That said, it was a pretty decent approximation of value given that I did not think long about it. Now, I would say the a more reasonable approximation would be some a mix of 70 MM between the posting fee and a five year deal.
What will make it worth Yu Darvish's time?
Darvish made 6.6 MM last year for the Nippon Ham Fighters. If he does not agree to a contract after this year or next, Darvish would be a free agent after the 2013 season. If he was to stay in Japan, he could see 13 MM over the next two years and then come across the Pacific as a free agent. If he maintains his play, he should be worth about 15 MM in the open market. Over five years, he could earn 58 MM. If I was his agent, I would be floating 12 MM per year as what to expect in order to sign a contract, but be willing to accept something as low as 45 MM. There has to be some concern about getting injured in the next couple years.
Suggested move to get Darvish:
30 MM posting fee / 5 years, 40 MM
Likely move to get Darvish:
50 MM posting fee / 5 years, 50 MM