30 May 2011

Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 9

The Orioles were involved in two sweeps this past week.  They took the Royals to task during the weekday series finishing with a three wins.  However, things skid to a halt (including a rare dismantling of Zach Britton) in Oakland where they had three straight games taken from them.  In response, they have junked three-fifths of their rotation with Brad Bergesen and Chris Tillman being relegated to Norfolk where they will undoubtedly dominate AAA batters.  If they are not in the rotation, they are probably best served in the MLB bullpen.  I imagine their stay will be short.  Brian Matusz will be pitching for them on Wednesday.  It is assumed that Alfredo Simon will be given a shot at the five slot in the rotation.  I should have made sure you were sitting for that.

Anyway, the projection models are hovering around the 78 and 79 wins with the changes becoming less significant as you can see in the graph at the end of this post.  The team will need to finish 69-42 to get to 93 game won and a likely playoff berth.

Here are also a few links from the past week that might be of interest:

Nick's summary of potential Baltimore Oriole targets in the first round.
The latest thoughts of mine for wishing to do away with collisions on the base paths.
A post on some less discussed players of interest in the later rounds of this year's draft.

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