25 May 2011

2011 Depot Draft Preview - Finding 1:4 (Summary)

We began our draft preview with in-depth looks (links below) at the eight players we consider the top targets for Baltimore at 1:4 (1st Round, 4th Pick):

Anthony Rendon / 3b / Rice Univ.
Gerrit Cole / rhp / UCLA
Bubba Starling / of/rhp / Gardner Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Sonny Gray / rhp / Vanderbilt Univ.
Danny Hultzen / lhp / Univ. of Virginia
Dylan Bundy / rhp / Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.)
Taylor Jungmann / rhp / Univ. of Texas
Jed Bradley / lhp / Georgia Tech

Upon completing these reports Jon and I have set our preference list (list of targeted players in order of preference) as follows:

Anthony Rendon / 3b / Rice Univ.
Gerrit Cole / rhp / UCLA
Bubba Starling / of / Gardner Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Sonny Gray / rhp / Vanderbilt Univ.
Dylan Bundy / rhp / Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.)
Jed Bradley / lhp / Georgia Tech
Taylor Jungmann / rhp / Univ. of Texas
Danny Hultzen / lhp / Univ. of Virginia

Based on this list, assuming Baltimore's pref list is similar to ours, and assuming that Rendon and Cole will both be off of the board by 1:4, the choice for the O's might come down to bonus demands. Both Starling and Bundy are believed to be asking for near record bonuses for a high school position player and pitcher, respectively. Conversely, Gray is not believed to be a particularly difficult sign (though that does not necessarily mean he is a "slot" signing). To provide a broader context, the difference in scouting grades between Starling and Hultzen is not significant and certainly close enough that factors outside of Overall Future Potential need to be taken into consideration. The long and short being that the Orioles will have a half-dozen solid options -- they just need to figure out which approach best suits their desired direction for this particular draft with this particular pool of players.

Those readers that have been with us for a year or more are aware of the fact that we run a "Shadow Draft", wherein we make a selection for Baltimore in each of their draft slots through the first ten rounds. In last year's Shadow Draft, Camden Depot's 1st Round selection was Karsten Whitson (rhp, Chipley HS (Fla.)), who subsequently passed on pro ball and joined the Univ. of Florida baseball squad, stepping right into their weekend rotation where he has had much success already. Per draft rules, our Shadow Team is afforded a compensation pick this year, so our 2011 Shadow Draft will include two 1st Round picks -- 1:4 and 1:5. We will otherwise be selecting in the same spot as the Orioles through the first ten rounds.

Up next in our draft preview we will take a look at targets for rounds two through ten. That will begin tomorrow afternoon with ten brief reports on position players to target for rounds two through five. Friday afternoon we'll look at ten pitchers to consider for those same rounds. Next week we will run the same exercise for rounds six through ten. We'll conclude our pre-draft coverage with a description of our suggested overarching draft strategy for this pool of players, and perhaps a chat if readers find the topic interesting enough.

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