03 May 2011

Collegiate Diamonds by the Numbers: SEC

The previous installment focused on introducing my criteria and players that fit them in the ACC.  Also, I want to remind you that I am using adjusted numbers from College Baseball Splits and not raw numbers.  This post will highlight players who match these criteria in the SEC.

Plate Discipline - Walk Rate (>15%) and BB:K ratio (>1.50)
Contact Rate - Batting Average (>.300)
Power - ISO (>.180)

Hitting All Four

Dan Gamache, INF, Auburn
363/462/562; 16% walk rate, 1.59 BB:K, .199 ISO
Not ranked by Diamond Scape Scouting, Keith Law, or Baseball America

Gamache is a Junior on the Auburn Tigers.  He might be the first diamond in the rough as I was unaware of him and have not found a recent scouting report.  He has shown an increase in power and plate discipline, but there is a question as to where exactly he will play as a pro.  I cannot say much more than that.  I look forward to Nick's thoughts in the comment section.  As Oriole fans know with Trent Mummey, future power is difficult to measure in Auburn because it can be rather easy to hit home runs there.

Taylor Dugas, OF, Alabama
333/439/539; 16% walk rate, 2.07 BB:K, .206 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: Not Ranked for OF, 177th best overall (pre-season)

Dugas might be taken anywhere from the fourth to seventh rounds.  He profiles as a speedy outfielder with good defensive skills.  He has shown a good success rate in the past for stolen bases, but has been largely ineffective this year with seven steals and four times caught.  His bat is also considered somewhat limited and there are questions if he can sustain a high level of doubles and a smattering of home runs at the next level.  For Oriole fans, Matt Angle might be a decent comp, but I think Dugas' bat profiles a little better than Angle's.

Matt Duffy, 3B, Tennessee
328/434/522; 16% walk rate, 1.56 BB:K, .194 ISO
Not Ranked by Diamond Scape Scouting, Keith Law, or Baseball America

Matt Duffy was not selected last year and is now in his senior season.  As yet, I have not found anyone releasing any scouting reports on him or ranking him.  This season he has maintained his high level of defensive play at third (or so it seems) while he has drastically reduce his strikeouts, increased his walks, and may be showing a little more power.  He may have some worth pas the eighth round for slot.  I don't know who to compare him to.

Passing Thoughts

The first review of talent in the ACC gave me hope that this series would be largely validated by the work of talent scouts as represented by Diamond Scape Scouting and Baseball America.  However, this collection of SEC talent is a bit unimpressive when compared to who these other groups are looking.  It will be interesting to see how this somewhat arbitrarily derived criteria performs as these players move on to the pros.


Nick J Faleris said...

I'm enjoying these, Jon. Regarding Gamache, you've definitely touched on a bit of an under-the-radar guy on the national scene (though the area guys are undoubtedly in on this kid, and have been for a couple of years).

Furthering your stat-analysis, check out the summer stats for the NECBL Newport Gulls:


Gamache's biggest hurdle is going to be showing he has the pop to play a pro 3B. If he can handle 2B, that might be a better fit. I think he's a 6-10 Rd guy but wouldn't be shocked to see him go in the 4th or 5th for somone evening out a higher-cost early draft. He'll likely be in the updated Top 300 posting this week.

Jon Shepherd said...

I am glad that there is emerging some sense of reasonableness as these lists are coming together. As I mentioned in the introduction piece, I tried to find skills for which we have decent statistical surrogates. I think using four different ones might help muting the small sample sizes. That said, this criteria is trying to find a subset of good players as opposed to the best players. It will be interesting to see how this group performs in the years to come. Another long-term project for me.