The Orioles are quite the streaky team this year. The last week has seen the Orioles sweep the Mariners in a three game set and going two and one against the Rays. All three projection systems are still in line with each other, which is quite impressive to me. Eventually, I expect a shift to occur. I do not use the same system as PECOTA or runs given/earned.
Remember when thinking about playoffs, we are talking about somewhere around 92 wins. The Orioles are currently far off that pace. PECOTA puts the Orioles as having a 5% chance of hitting that. My system has them at 1.3%.