16 May 2011

Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 7

The Orioles are quite the streaky team this year.  The last week has seen the Orioles sweep the Mariners in a three game set and going two and one against the Rays.  All three projection systems are still in line with each other, which is quite impressive to me.  Eventually, I expect a shift to occur.  I do not use the same system as PECOTA or runs given/earned.

Remember when thinking about playoffs, we are talking about somewhere around 92 wins.  The Orioles are currently far off that pace.  PECOTA puts the Orioles as having a 5% chance of hitting that.  My system has them at 1.3%.

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