At the end of 5 weeks, the Orioles are not wildly over or underperforming based on the initial predictions of Camden Depot and the PECOTA forecasting. The Depot has seen a bump of 0.8 games and PECOTA is showing a drop of 0.4 games. Roughly eyeing it, I would say 5 games would be a major shift. We are not seeing that here. There have also been no surprises so far based on what my projections indicate for the rest of the AL East. Although, the Yankees and BoSox have flipped to first and second, respectively.
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PECOTA has the Orioles with a 5.5% chance to reach the playoffs. I have them at 1.89%.
If you prefer odds, that would be about 1 in 18 for PECOTA and 1 in 52 for the Depot.