At Last! A Look at Tsuyoshi Wada

Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei-Yin Chen were Dan Duquette's major Far East signings in the 2011-2012 offseason. Wada, a successful veteran pitcher in the Japanese league, was the more highly-touted signing, but he was injured in spring training. He made a rehabilitation appearance for Norfolk in Gwinnett on April 19, and was ineffective - he gave up 6 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in 2 2/3 innings. Immediately thereafter, he was diagnosed as needing Tommy John ligament replacement surgery and missed the rest of 2012.

Wada had signed a two-year contract with the Orioles, and continued his rehabilitation into 2013. He made his first rehabilitation appearance of 2013 on May 16 against Lehigh Valley. This was a weekday day game, and so I wasn't able to work the game. Wada pitched adequately for someone who hadn't pitched in a game in over a year; he gave up 4 runs (3 earned) in four innings, giving up three hits and two walks. He made his second start against Durham on May 21, and I worked that game for BIS, marking the first time I had seen Wada pitch since his signing.

Wada is not a big man. He's listed at 5'11'', 180 pounds, and he looks slighter than that. His fastball was consistently at 85 or 86 mph according to the Harbor Park radar gun, although he did reach 88 a couple of times. His curveball was generally recorded in the low 70's. Wada faced 21 batters in 4-plus innings; he left after facing three batters in the fifth. He was the losing pitcher in a 3-2 game, surrendering two runs on six hits, with two walks and one strikeout. Both runs scored after he left the game; he left with the bases loaded and no outs. Reliever Chris Jones allowed one inherited runner to score on a sacrifice fly and another on a pop-fly single; it's more fair to charge those runs to Wada than to blame Jones for letting the inherited runners score.

A look at his pitches:

Called Balls: 35
Called Strikes: 14
Swinging Strikes: 3
Fouls: 13
In Play: 17
Hit By Pitch: 1

And the number of pitches he threw with different counts:

0-0: 21
1-0: 12
0-1: 8
2-0: 6
1-1: 9
0-2: 4
3-0: 1
2-1: 9
1-2: 4
3-1: 4
2-2: 5
3-2: 0

At first glance, it looks like Wada might be struggling with his control upon return from injury. But there was a sequence that leads me to believe that Wada's apparent lack of control is a tactical decision. In the third inning, he hit the first batter and gave up a double to the second, putting runners on second and third with no out. The next batter fouled off two pitches and was called out on strikes on the third; the next batter fell behind 0-2 before hitting a soft liner to second. Then, with two outs, he reverted to his nibbling ways, retiring the batter on a 2-2 count.

This sequence tells me that when Wada has to, he is capable of throwing strikes and getting ahead of hitters. The rest of the game, he wasn't throwing pitches all over the place; they were going where he wanted them to. As a result, I believe that Wada's approach is to get aggressive batters to chase pitches out of the strike zone, either inducing weak contact or swings-and-misses.

Tsuyoshi Wada would have been more effective twenty-five years ago, before working counts and plate discipline had become as important as they are now. Even today, he might be an effective #4 or #5 starter on a team that includes other overpowering pitchers and pitchers who can go deep into games. That's not the 2013 Orioles, and I don't have faith that Wada will be able to help the 2013 Orioles' starting rotation.

Discussing the Orioles and Japanese Baseball with Yakyu Baka

The past off season there was a flurry of moves involving players from Japan without the Orioles winding up with any of them.  This was quite different from Dan Duquette's first off season when he signed Taiwanese pitcher Wei-Yin Chen to a three year contract and Japanese pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada.  That effort rewarded the Orioles greatly as Chen provided them with an above average pitcher on a below market contract.  Even when you factor in the 4 MM paid to Wada, who was out all year injured, an above average pitcher for 8 MM in expenditures is still a net positive deal.  Anyway, Duquette's engagement with Japanese baseball was perhaps the greatest move he made last off season.

This left me wondering about this year's class.  I have seen a good deal of video, gone over Pitch f/x, and read the assessments by several evaluators (i.e. Patrick Newman).  However, I thought it might be good to contact Gen again from Yakyu Baka to discuss the current crop, future players who might cross the Pacific, and how the Orioles are perceived in Japan.

Jon: Kyuji Fujikawa, a 32 right handed reliever, signed with the Cubs in early December for two years and nine million.  He is a fastball / forkball pitcher, similar in ways to J.J. Putz.  How well do you think his success in Japan will translate over to Major League Baseball?

Gen: Most think that Fujikawa will do fine in the Majors.  History has also been fairly kind to Japanese relievers as well.  My only concern with him, as well as with any Japanese players going to the Majors, is how well he will fair over the course of a full MLB season.

Over the last couple of years, it seems he lost a little something.  There have been questions about whether or not he can handle a heavy workload off and on over the last couple of years.  Again, if there there's one thing I would be concerned about it, it would be his stamina.  Otherwise, I think he'll be fine.

J: In Baltimore, Wei-Yin Chen was warmly embraced and even had his own celebratory night with fans being given free shirts.  It made many here pay more attention to the Japanese game.  Do you notice more mention of the Orioles in Japan now?

G: I don't really notice a huge presence, but then I don't pay as much attention to the MLB as I used to.  In general, it probably hurt that Wada missed the year.  If he was healthy and pitched, then TV news shows would have show highlights from his starts.  He would have have showed up more often in the newspapers.  Chen, I'm not really sure how much of a following he has in the Kanto region.  I also noticed that many of the online sites didn't provide updates on his starts as they do with other Japanese players.

J: Last year, the Orioles were embroiled in the Kim Seong-min incident (which the Depot wrote extensively about last year and was the first news source that actually asked journalists in South Korea for their perspective).  Did that affect how the team was viewed in Japan?

G: I don't really know how NPB teams are looking at the incident.  I know NPB teams are concerned about losing young players to the Majors.  A lot of eyes were on Shohei Otani.  I think you could almost hear a collective sigh of relief when he decided to start his career in Japan.  Personally, I don't see a reason why a teenage Japanese pitcher would avoid signing with the Orioles.  And I'm not sure if anyone in the NPB feels the Orioles should be singled out as a bad team because of the incident.

J: Who do you think are the Japanese players in the future to keep in mind?  Players who will perform as well as Ichiro Suzuki and Yu Darvish.

G: Hard to say.  Players like Ichiro and Darvish don't really come around too often.  Otani could end up getting posted to the Majors within the next five years, depending on how he develops.  Rakuten's Masahiro Tanaka is a name I'm sure more people around the world will become familiar with after the WBC.  Nippon Ham's Yoshio Itoi wanted to be posted, but the Fighters turned him down.  He might be an interesting player to keep an eye on during the WBC as well.  Softbank's Masahiko Morifuku has expressed an interest in playing in the Majors, but not right away.  He's also on the preliminary WBC roster.

O's Targeting Other Japanese Pitchers?

Wei-Yin Chen in '08 Olympics

I was told the other day that the Orioles are more interested in three Japanese starting pitchers who are not named Yu Darvish and do not need to be posted.  I was not told the names of these players, but I think it is fair to assume they are the following: Hisashi Iwakuma (RHSP, Rakuten Golden Eagles), Wei-Yin Chen (LHSP, Chunichi Dragons), and Tsuyoshi Wada (LHSP, Softbank Hawks). 

Hishashi Iwakuma (31 years old)
You may remember Hisashi Iwakuma's name.  He was posted last year by the Golden Eagles and the Oakland Athletics won the right to negotiate with him for the conditional amount of 18 MM.  The Athletics failed to sign him after allegedly offering him a three year deal worth 10 MM total with the agreement that they could not use arbitration with him at the end of the deal.  Unsurprisingly, Iwakuma who had made 4 MM in 2010 as a member of the Golden Eagles did not see the point in locking himself in a multi-year contract at that amount.  By staying in Japan, he signed a one year deal at 4 MM, which was more than what the A's offered.  He now is able to enter the MLB market as a free agent without the restrictions imposed by the slotting system.

Iwakuma throws five pitches in the JPL: four seamer, two seamer, split finger, slider, and curve.  In 2010, his four seamer sat around 90-91 mph.  In 2011, he saw it lose some speed which might be connected to shoulder issues he suffered this past year.  Toward the end of the season, he was up in the high 80s.  His two-seamer is a typical shuuto in that there is not much difference in velocity between it and the four seamer.  I figure that will disappear stateside.  His split finger actually looked like a very good pitch last year, but has been less useful to him in 2011.  He throws it around 83 mph this year and the difference in speed between that pitch and his four seamer has narrowed.  I think that is why is now less useful.  Iwakuma's slider comes in the high 70s now and his curve in the low 70s.  Both look very hittable.

My guess is that a stateside Iwakuma will be a below average high eighties fastball, an above average split finger in the low eighties, and an average high 70s slider with a mix of a few curves.  This is likely to be someone who would be hit pretty hard as a starter.  Prior to his injury, he looked like a potential 4 or maybe 3 slot pitcher.  He has lost about 4-5 mph on that fastball and it completely changes the outlook on him.  I think he might be best suited as a relief pitcher where he might be able to get back into the 90s with his four seamer and may be able to live primarily off the four seamer and his split finger.  The more he has to depend on his other offerings, the more trouble he is likely to have.

The projection system I developed for Yu Darvish actually is very kind to Iwakuma.  In large part I think this is due to him probably being a different pitcher in years prior to 2011.  Over 200 IP, it projects Iwakuma to throw 137 strikeouts while giving up 77 walks and 17 home runs.  This would be good enough for a 4.12 FIP.  I think the current version of Iwakuma with his reduced velocity would be more of a 5.00 to 5.50 FIP pitcher.  If someone thinks he can regain his arm strength back, I could see someone putting down a 2 year, 10 MM deal on the table.  He might be able to get 3 MM on a one year deal as a relief pitcher.  The latter would probably result in him staying in Japan.

Wei-Yin Chen (27 years old)
Chen is a rather young to qualify as a free agent as he has finished his age 26 season.  He was paid 2.25 MM for Chunichi in 2011 and would be up for a significant raise in either side of the Pacific.  The lefty had been known for pitching in the low 90s and racking up strikeouts in Japan.  However, things seems to change in 2011.  Based on the information I have, it appears he has become a completely different pitcher.  His average velocity dropped from the low 90s into the high 80s and he wound up throwing 50 more innings this year.  This gives the appearance that he threw with less effort to go deeper into games.  With a new ball this year and power evaporating league-wide, it may have been a conscious effort on his part.  It concerns me slightly, but I have heard nothing of any injury.

Chen has a four seamer, two seamer, split finger, slider, and curve.  He primarily sticks to his four seamer, split finger, and slider.  He has similar offerings as Iwakuma, but has concentrated more on those three pitches than Iwakuma.  Chen also rarely throws his two seamer while Iwakuma has lately depended on it heavily.  The pre-2011 version of Chen threw around 91-92 mph often throwing mid 90s in the first couple innings and then dropping down to 88-90 after the third inning.  This season it stays and remains in the 88-90 range.  His split finger comes around in the mid 80s.  His slider used to be slightly faster than the split finger, but has appeared a tick slower this year.  Chin finished the season coming out of the bullpen for an important game.  He managed to add three mph to his fastball and stuck with his splitfinger with a couple sliders mixed in.

I think Chen has a better chance to stick as a starter than Iwakuma.  His decrease in velocity looks more like a conscious that will be quickly changed in the States.  At worst, I think his current repertoire will play as a below average to average starter.  As a relief pitcher, I think his increased velocity coming in from the left side could make him an incredibly valuable set up or left handed long reliever.  The projection system sees Chen in a negative light.  Over 200 IP, it projects him to strike out 150 while giving up 87 walks and 21 home runs for a 4.42 FIP.  That is five or maybe four slot pitcher in the Majors and could work well for a reliever.  I would be willing to give him a 2 year, 10 MM deal and see where it would lead while starting him out as a starter.  Of course, I would get my scouts to review him first. 

Tsuyoshi Wada (31 years old)
Wada will be entering his age 31 year in 2012 and has just made 4.35 MM for the Softbank Hawks.  He has been rather prolific at striking out batters and reminds me slightly of Koji Uehara in that he is a light tosser that relies on speed change and command to rack up Ks.  Like Uehara, he is also prone to giving up the occasional long ball.  I would not put him in the same caliber as Koji though.  I actually find it surprising if he can muster much more money out of American clubs than Japanese ones.

Wada lives off three pitches: a mid 80s fastball, a 80 mph changeup, and a 80 mph slider.  Based on the pitch f/x data, it looks like he works his fastball between 82 and 88 mph while coming in with a slider occasionally.  His changeup is a pitch he tosses in for good measure against righties.  Otherwise, you only see fastballs that vary widely in speed and his slider.  I imagine to be as successful as he is in Japan, he must utilize a pretty deceptive motion.

It will be difficult for Wada to be successful in the United States as a starter.  With his average velocity of 85 mph, he would have exceeded only four other starting pitchers last year: Livan Hernandez, Jeff Francis, Tim Wakefield, and RA Dickey.  Two of those guys are knuckleball pitchers.  No relievers throwing more than 50 IP would have used a lesser velocity.  However, when Wada has been used in relief he actually averages around 90 mph.  I think he could be a very useful middle reliever for someone.  As a starter, the system projects him over 200 IP with 128 strikeouts while giving up 77 walks and 16 home runs with a 4.55 FIP.

I cannot see Wada making more than five million on this side of the Pacific.  The receiving team would have to be overly optimistic about him being able to start.  I know we were fully behind acquiring Uehara here a few years back, but, even though he was right handed and showed similar speeds, he showed incredible command.  I just do not see that in Wada.  Wada's walk rate is more than twice was Uehara's was in Japan.  I just cannot see giving him more than what he made in Japan.

Conclusion
Compares to what they could earn in Japan, Wei-Yin Chen is the only pitcher who I think shows good value to the Orioles.  He has an outside chance of being a 4/5 slot pitcher working as a 90 mph left hander or he could come out from the bullpen with a little more heat.  His pitch f/x data just looks more like what I expect from MLB quality pitchers.  Iwakuma appears as if his shoulder is a problem.  I have severe reservations spending several million on someone who looks similar to several of our own right handers who were shuttled back and forth between Norfolk and Baltimore.  Wada looks interesting as a reliever, but I just cannot see matching what he makes in Japan in the US.  What works there does not necessarily work here.  It should be noted though that I have not evaluated these pitchers on video.  I have seen Iwakuma and Yada pitch, but have not really focused on them.