An Interview with Jon Paley on his Miguel Sano film and the DR.

In case you have not heard, Jon Paley and his band of filmmakers are working hard to complete the sequel to Pelotero.  In the sequel, the focus is on one of the two prospects covered in the first film, the top 100 talent Miguel Sano.  The film shows his journey from the Dominican Republic and will end with his debut in the Majors Leagues which will be this year or next.  In order to put enough of the film together to entice established production companies, these independent filmmakers need money to give the powers that be something to be excited about.

This is where you come in.  They are about to finish up their Kickstarter campaign.  Kickstarter is a money contribution system where you give to them to help create this film and in exchange, you get not only the satisfaction of seeing this film to completion, but also a gift.  Based on your contribution, you could receive something like Rosewood headphones, a Miguel Sano signed bat, or even a tour provided by the film crew so you can meet the trainers and prospects as well as go to the academies.  It is a pretty exciting way to encourage helping them out.  The contribution period ends on April 17th at 2pm, so hurry.  Limited supplies are available on some of the items like the signed bat.

I talked to Jon recently about the first film and some of his experiences since he began this journey.

Jon Shepherd: When you first started out filming Pelotero, it was a more comprehensive look at several kinds of prospects in the Dominican.  Do you still keep in contact with the ones that wound up not being included in the final film in addition to Miguel and Jean Carlos?

Jon Paley: Miguel and Jean Carlos are in the minors and both making incredible progress. We have lost touch with the other three guys unfortunately. We try and catch up with them once a year or so when we are in the DR. One signed with the Astro's, but I think has been cut. I think the other two are out of baseball.

JS: One of the interesting parts in the first film is the deterioration of the relationship between Astin and Jean Carlos.  Have they been able to reconcile?

JP: Astin and Jean Carlos are still not on good terms. There was a major violation of trust there and I can see how that is difficult to overcome.

JS: After releasing the film last year, Bud Selig made a point to speak out against Pelotero.  Has there been any follow up to that?

JP: Bud Selig spoke out against the film saying it was out of date and they never had a chance to comment. Of course we had offered them a chance to comment and proved it to them, but they never seemed to correct the record on that one. As far as the out of date critique, if you talk to anyone on the ground in the Dominican things haven't improved at all since 2009. MLB has passed all kinds of reforms which are meant exclusively to protect themselves.

JS: There has been some consternation over nutritional habits of minor leaguers and that, perhaps, MLB teams need to be more focused on providing nutritional support.  What have been your experiences as you accompany Miguel Sano?

JP: There are certainly days where these kids, and ourselves for that matter, are eating out of the concession stands. More often though they are being fed by host families who cook for them or allow them to cook themselves. 

JS: You often see when MLB players go on rehabilitation assignments in the minors that they provide special items for the clubhouse (e.g., food spreads, flat screens, furniture, game stations).  With Sano's pay day, has there been any expectation for him to be generous with minor leaguers who did not sign for as much?

JP: Hardly! There is some pressure on Miguel because he is expected to succeed, but there is some understanding of where he is coming from and the extent of the family is responsible for supporting. 

JS: A hurdle for Sano in the United States is learning English.  How has he done?  How are the Twins are providing instruction?

JP: Every team has an english program although it varies how seriously they are taken. The Twins' are doing a good job though and after a few years Miguel's english has really turned a corner. I'll let this video from the Pioneer Press speak for itself. http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_22807939/minnesota-twins-prospects-dont-speak-english-well-help

JS: Would Dominican kids who may be talented at baseball stay in school longer if baseball was not an option or would they just as soon enter the workforce (e.g., cane fields)?

JP: The problem in the DR goes a lot deeper than baseball vs. school. Unemployment is incredibly high, the education system is a mess, and opportunity is scarce. Baseball is an opportunity even if it is a longshot and families recognize that. These aren't rash decisions made by 12 year olds with a glint in their eyes to drop out of school. Oftentimes this is a calculated family decision to try for the best opportunity available. They say 100,000 kids are training to try and sign at any given time. Of those only about 500 will sign a year. 

JS: Based on your connections, has the new soft international signing bonus cap affected the trainer business in the Dominican?

JP: It has dramatically lowered signing bonuses. MLB would say that is a huge success because they are concerned with maintaining the DR as a cheap source of talent. All it has done is make things better for MLB teams, and made the value double standard between Dominican and American players greater. 

JS: In the first film, there appeared to be some questionable things happening to Miguel with the age investigation.  Have you heard if the issues there have been straightened out?

JP: MLB and its member teams have two goals in the DR. To maintain low signing bonuses, and to protect teams from looking bad by signing players who lie about their age. There is absolutely no effort to protect players or trainers from things like what happened to Miguel. 

Discussing the Orioles and Japanese Baseball with Yakyu Baka

The past off season there was a flurry of moves involving players from Japan without the Orioles winding up with any of them.  This was quite different from Dan Duquette's first off season when he signed Taiwanese pitcher Wei-Yin Chen to a three year contract and Japanese pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada.  That effort rewarded the Orioles greatly as Chen provided them with an above average pitcher on a below market contract.  Even when you factor in the 4 MM paid to Wada, who was out all year injured, an above average pitcher for 8 MM in expenditures is still a net positive deal.  Anyway, Duquette's engagement with Japanese baseball was perhaps the greatest move he made last off season.

This left me wondering about this year's class.  I have seen a good deal of video, gone over Pitch f/x, and read the assessments by several evaluators (i.e. Patrick Newman).  However, I thought it might be good to contact Gen again from Yakyu Baka to discuss the current crop, future players who might cross the Pacific, and how the Orioles are perceived in Japan.

Jon: Kyuji Fujikawa, a 32 right handed reliever, signed with the Cubs in early December for two years and nine million.  He is a fastball / forkball pitcher, similar in ways to J.J. Putz.  How well do you think his success in Japan will translate over to Major League Baseball?

Gen: Most think that Fujikawa will do fine in the Majors.  History has also been fairly kind to Japanese relievers as well.  My only concern with him, as well as with any Japanese players going to the Majors, is how well he will fair over the course of a full MLB season.

Over the last couple of years, it seems he lost a little something.  There have been questions about whether or not he can handle a heavy workload off and on over the last couple of years.  Again, if there there's one thing I would be concerned about it, it would be his stamina.  Otherwise, I think he'll be fine.

J: In Baltimore, Wei-Yin Chen was warmly embraced and even had his own celebratory night with fans being given free shirts.  It made many here pay more attention to the Japanese game.  Do you notice more mention of the Orioles in Japan now?

G: I don't really notice a huge presence, but then I don't pay as much attention to the MLB as I used to.  In general, it probably hurt that Wada missed the year.  If he was healthy and pitched, then TV news shows would have show highlights from his starts.  He would have have showed up more often in the newspapers.  Chen, I'm not really sure how much of a following he has in the Kanto region.  I also noticed that many of the online sites didn't provide updates on his starts as they do with other Japanese players.

J: Last year, the Orioles were embroiled in the Kim Seong-min incident (which the Depot wrote extensively about last year and was the first news source that actually asked journalists in South Korea for their perspective).  Did that affect how the team was viewed in Japan?

G: I don't really know how NPB teams are looking at the incident.  I know NPB teams are concerned about losing young players to the Majors.  A lot of eyes were on Shohei Otani.  I think you could almost hear a collective sigh of relief when he decided to start his career in Japan.  Personally, I don't see a reason why a teenage Japanese pitcher would avoid signing with the Orioles.  And I'm not sure if anyone in the NPB feels the Orioles should be singled out as a bad team because of the incident.

J: Who do you think are the Japanese players in the future to keep in mind?  Players who will perform as well as Ichiro Suzuki and Yu Darvish.

G: Hard to say.  Players like Ichiro and Darvish don't really come around too often.  Otani could end up getting posted to the Majors within the next five years, depending on how he develops.  Rakuten's Masahiro Tanaka is a name I'm sure more people around the world will become familiar with after the WBC.  Nippon Ham's Yoshio Itoi wanted to be posted, but the Fighters turned him down.  He might be an interesting player to keep an eye on during the WBC as well.  Softbank's Masahiko Morifuku has expressed an interest in playing in the Majors, but not right away.  He's also on the preliminary WBC roster.

Following Up on Kim Seong-min and the Orioles

Lots of things happen behind closed doors.  As writers and fans, we try to piece together what is available for us to know about a situation and do our best to extrapolate reasonable actions and explanations where we do not know what occurred.  This extrapolation is difficult because most of us have never been in positions where these things occur.  We often do our best to understand what has transpired, but it is difficult when we are so outside of the actual profession and actual series of events.  This paragraph serves as a disclaimer that we all should carry with us when we assess the actions of a professional where we are so distant.

With that in mind, I want to discuss Kim Seong-min, the Orioles' attempt to sign him, and the resulting aftermath.  Last January, I wrote a couple articles on the fiasco that transpired.  Basically, the Orioles made a big splash by signing a Korean high schooler to a 550k signing bonus (which would roughly account for the half of the cost of annual signing bonuses in total for international amateur talent acquisition in years past).  It was a major move for a franchise that has stood by and watched others signing international talent for about a decade and a half.  Industry was relatively shocked by the move because no other MLB team had shown any interest in Kim Seong-min.  The Orioles reported rather rosey projections and suggested that he was bound to grow 3-4 inches as he matured.  Meanwhile, unnamed sources in the international scouting press suggested Seong-min was a non-prospect and that the signing bonus was a gross overpay.

Further complicating the perception of this move was that the Orioles did not consult the amateur baseball organization in South Korea, the KBA, before signing Kim Seong-min.  This violated the agreement that MLB had in place.  As a result of this violation, the Orioles were banned from scouting in KBA sanctioned events and MLB voided the contract.  Kim Seong-min was not allowed to have any contact with the Orioles for a few weeks and was banned from playing baseball in South Korea.  After Seong-min was allowed to come to the United States and communicate with the Orioles, he threw a session in Florida for a collection of evaluators.  The Orioles decided at that point to ship him back across the Pacific and elect not to sign him.  At the time of my writing, Seong-min is still banned from playing baseball in South Korea.

[Side Note - Essential reading on this topic also comes from Jon Bernhardt from a two part piece he wrote over at the Classical.  He is an excellent writer.  Follow him on twitter if you desire some discussion on baseball and a whole lot of peculiar retweets from all hours in the early early morning.]

Last week, Steve Melewski published an interview he had with Dan Duquette.  Go and read the whole interview, but there was one startling comment:

Steve: You mentioned a few minutes ago that one of the new markets the Orioles are in is Korea.  Weren't the Orioles banned from scouting Korea?

Duquette: "I didn't hear that. How are they enforcing that? I don't know."

Ladies and Gentlemen, that is the Dan Duquette all of New England came to know so well.  His somewhat heavy-handed, smartest-guy-in-the-room can come across a bit too strong at times.  I am not exactly sure what to make of the statement above.  The first sentence is obviously him being sarcastic and the second one...I am unsure.  I do not know what to make of it.  Maybe he literally took Melewski about being banned from Korea. 

The Orioles have not been banned from scouting in Korea.  If you remember, I have on a few occaissions taken Melewski to task for incorrectly writing this.  It is a ridiculous statement.  The Orioles are still free to attend non-KBA sanctioned events and hold their own tryouts.  So...maybe Duquette was responding to that.  I don't know.  I do know that it does not come off like that.  It comes off as him allegedly thumbing his nose at the KBA and, to some extent, MLB.  I hope, for his sake, it is about the annoyance of a question and not an outright declaration of ignoring a foreign amateur player ruling body.

To get a better handle on what has transpired since those initial interviews, I followed up with Yoo Jee-ho from the Yonhap News Agency.  As you remember from last winter, he was an excellent resource in finding out what was happening in South Korea and helped Camden Depot get the first story out with solid information.  Make sure you follow his twitter account if you have interest in Korean Sports.  If you have a question, my experience has been that he knows the answer.

Jon Shepherd: Has Baltimore's actions affected how MLB teams in general are perceived in Korea?  Or is it only Baltimore's reputation that has been tarnished?

Yoo Jee-ho: I am not sure Baltimore’s mishaps really affected MLB’s perception here much. People here still love their baseball, love watching Shin-Soo Choo of the Cleveland Indians whack extra-base hits, etc, etc. If anything, I think the Orioles’ image may have been tarnished, as you point out.

JS: What has been the reaction to Dan Duquette's interview with Steve Melewski?

YJ: I did read the interview. A Korean online paper carried that story as well. And readers’ reaction has ranged from anger (‘These guys are so arrogant!’) to almost bemusement (‘Hey, maybe that Duquette guy really doesn’t know.’). Others have questioned whether the Korea Baseball Association (KBA) can actually reinforce that ban. Are you going to check every foreign person’s ID at the gate? Should they ask anyone with a speed gun in seats behind the home plate to present their ID, or whatever proof that they may have showing they’re a major league scout? Now that I think of it, a few months after the ban was announced, it may have been put in place just for show. It may have been the KBA’s way of telling the angry/frustrated Korean public that, look, we’re doing something here.

JS: The Orioles had Kim Seong-min in Florida for a tryout and decided not to sign him.  What was your take on the reaction in South Korea?

YJ: Again, a wide range of reactions from the public. A lot of people obviously aren’t happy with the way Baltimore handled this. They say the Orioles essentially ruined the career of a teenage ballplayer (he’s still under that indefinite suspension for signing a pro contract as an underclass man) by violating the rule. On the other hand, a surprisingly large number of people also blame Kim for not having been more careful before signing (or at least attempting to sign) with the Orioles and for apparently being too greedy at that age. Kim’s parents have also taken some shots in cyberspace--after all, the kid is still in his teens. 

JS: What is Kim Seong-min currently doing?

YJ: He’s reportedly attending the same high school but is not playing ball at the moment. There’s been absolutely no indication when he will be able to play baseball again.

JS: What is the most important thing for Americans to understand about this situation?

YJ: A great number of Korean ball fans still throw around the term “exodus” when discussing MLB clubs’ signing of local players. Granted, there haven’t been that many players who signed in the last year or two, compared to, say, around 2007 and 2008. Fans here can be really protective of their homegrown talent. They want to see homegrown kids play for their hometown teams in the KBO, before they go overseas (if at all). KBO clubs can also be like that?wanting to sign local kids out of high school rather than losing them to MLB or Japanese clubs. That’s why the KBO has that rule in place where a player can only sign with a foreign team after playing seven seasons or their equivalent. Korean fans tend to have sort of an inferiority complex, compared to bigger baseball countries like the U.S. and Japan. ‘Those two countries have way more high school and college teams than we do, and they’ve obviously got bigger talent pools. But they want to take away our guys?' Those fans don’t see the other side of the equation--that seeing local guys do well overseas can be just as exciting from a fan’s perspective.

To me, it is a fascinating topic.  A solid conduit of information on Korean Baseball is Dan from the Korean Baseball Fansite MyKBO.net about their thoughts on the whole situation.  Dan actually grew up in Lancaster, PA and is sensitive to the Orioles plight.

 

JS: What is your opinion on how the Orioles have handled this situation?

Dan: The Orioles botched it completely by not status checking on Kim.  Had they waited until he began his final year and completed the status check with KBA, they could have signed him.  From my understanding at the time, and more obvious now, no other MLB club was interested in signing him. 

JS: What do you think about how the team has handled Kim Seong-min?

D: The Orioles probably feel that they do not owe Kim anything because MLB voided the contract.  It helped them get out of their mistake in signing him and saved the team money.  From an ethics and public relations perspective, the team should probably offer some degree of reconcilliation for Kim and his family.  For instance, they could go to KBO and KBA, declare the mistakes was their own and not Kim's, and ask for Kim's KBO and KBA ban to be lifted.

From what I have seen on the internet, there are some Orioles fans who think that Kim bears some responsibility.  That is correct, unless he was led to believer that the Orioles did everything by the book.  There's been speculation in Korea that Kim's family was allegedly told that the Orioles performed the check and did everything by the book.  Underclassmen rarely get signed in Korea, so Kim's family had no idea if what they were allegedly being told was accurate.  Kim likely did not have an agent providing advice who could have checked on this.

JS: You have read the Melewski interview with Duquette.  Any thoughts?

D: While Duquette may have a dry sense of humor, that does not translate well in Korean.  Basically saying that he has scouts there and questioning how KBA could enforce such a ban is only going to further upset KBA and, thus, possibly keeping the ban on the team for a longer period.  Additionally, it may hurt Kim's chance at getting his own ban lifted.  Honor and respect have a huge role in Korea.  The general sentiment is that the Orioles dishonored KBO/KBA by not status checking.  An honorable apology may not lift the ban, but it would help ease tensions.  There is talent in Korea and I see no benefit in upsetting the organizations that oversee baseball in the country.

JS: Do you have any lingering questions about the Orioles' effort in Korea?

D: An interesting person who has been a part of the Orioles effort has been Eun-chul Choi.  He is an older player, has barely had a cup of coffee in independent ball, and has been on the DL all year.  I wonder if he could be serving the Orioles as a player/scout.  I've heard that the Orioles used word of mouth and video to scout Kim and I wonder if Choi had input on the signing. 

 I am unsure whether or not the story of Kim Seong-min and the Orioles is over.  Certainly, he will not be in the organization, but he will likely have a presence as this situation has impacted how the Orioles operate.  Those changes will likely be clearer in the future.  

What strikes me here though is this:

1. The Orioles did not follow well known rules on status checking.
2. The Orioles signed a player no one else apparently wanted for 550k.
3. The Orioles are prohibited from attending KBA sanctioned events.
4. After being forced to null the original contract, the Orioles cross referenced their scouting and decided Kim Seong-min was not someone they wanted to sign.

From the outside, it just does not seem that this is how a team should operate.  The Orioles new desire to hit the international market is a great thing and it has been long needed as so many MLB players are found outside of this country.  However, this event and their recent absence of signing international talent well regarded by industry provides some doubt as to how effective they will be at implementing these changes.  It should be noted that the late start date for Duquette may have severely hampered scouting as many scouts had already signed on to new clubs, limiting what he had to choose to fill his organization.

Pelotero aka Os Almost Signed Sano for 5 Million

A little over two years ago, I posted an interview with Jon Paley on the documentary he was working on called Pelotero.  What drove me to seek out the makers of this film was that they were in an excellent position to ask questions about the inflow of baseball talent from the Dominican Republic.  I had thought, and still think, that this aspect of the talent market is grossly neglected and poorly understood here in the States. 

There have been a few attempts to bring to light how talent arrives from foreign countries.  The movie Sugar was an excellent, and somewhat accelerated, movie about the difficulties that a foreign born player faces when he is dropped in the middle of America and expected to perform with a scant support system.  However, that movie begins after the signing process has taken place.

A book that should be required reading is Venezuela Bust, Baseball Boom.  This book focuses on Andres Reiner's development of Venezuela as a major reservoir for highly talented baseball players.  However, if you read about Venezuela to understand what like is like for Dominican players, you will be mistaken.  The highly structured youth leagues of Venezuela do not exist in the Dominican Republic.  Talent simply develops differently in these countries.  To understand how it is developed in the Dominican Republic, Ballplayer: Pelotero is a great start to begin your education.

I will let the filmmakers of Ballplayer: Pelotero provide their own synopsis of the film:

In the run-up to the most important days of their lives, two young Dominican baseball players confront competition and corruption to achieve their Big League dreams.

For 16 year old Dominican baseball players, or peloteros, the only real chance to escape crushing poverty comes every July 2nd, the day they become eligible to sign professional baseball contracts.  Ballplyaer: Pelotero provides an intimate portrait of two prospects as they navigate the calculating, mercenary and often corrupt elements that surround Major League Baseball's recruitment of the island's top talent.

Ballplayer: Pelotero will be playing locally in Washington, DC at the West End Cinema from Friday, July 13th through Thursday, July 19th (buy tickets here).  During the week, the film will be shown three times a day and four times a day on the weekend.  You can also access it on iTunes.

I interviewed Jon Paley again this week briefly about the film.  I asked him about what drove him to make this film, Miguel Sano, the Orioles' presence, and what he hopes the film imparts on the audience.

When people ask where this project came from this is the story I always tell them.

I grew up in Pikesville as an Orioles fan. Four or five years ago in some of our darkest days I gave up on the big league team along with my fellow Baltimoron Josh Wolf and began to fixate on the farm system (as many of your readers I'm sure can identify with). It was seeing countless Dominican guys like Daniel Cabrera and Radhammes Liz come and go through the ranks that inspired the question of why Dominicans are so good at baseball. 

In regards to Miguel, the story I always tell is about the first time we met him. We had just arrived on the island and barely had any connections. We showed up at one of the biggest showcases with around 50 scouts and most of the islands top prospects. We were setting up the camera when we started hearing these booming thunderclaps. Prospects had been hitting BP continually since we arrived. But this just sounded different. We turned around and saw Miguel for the first time putting on a BP display like he was in the Home Run Derby. We knew he was something special even before we saw him. 

The O's were EXTREMELY close to signing Sano.  They had slow played their interest the whole time we were there. They brought Miguel in for two days of back to back tryouts just before July 2nd, the day he became eligible to sign. Stockstill was there and was high on the kid. At one point, the O's were ready to offer $5 Million for Miguel, but they were concerned about his investigation. They weren't willing to take a chance on it and lost out to the Twins. The O's had the inside track to secure a cornerstone player here and failed to act. Trust me, the vision of Miguel Sano wearing orange and black and how close they were has kept me up nights. 

What we found out making this film is that the baseball system in the DR is a lot more nuanced than we had ever thought. Its easy to write off every player as a liar and every trainer as an unscrupulous bloodhound but that is not the case. Baseball is good for the Dominican Republic, and we are not trying to reform or eradicate that system. We just want to make sure that Dominican players are treated equally and fairly to their American counterparts.

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Interview with an Arm Injury Researcher, Part II

 by Will Beaudoin

Will is a freelance writer who has written for Camden Depot previously.

Long Toss Mechanics (Picture from Dick Mills' site.)

During my discussion with Dr. Fleisig, I asked him for a few examples of compelling research in the field of biomechanics from the past year. Interestingly enough, he directed me towards two articles he had a hand in creaing—“Biomechanical Comparison of Baseball Pitching and Long-Toss: Implications for Training and Rehabilitation” (Fleisig, Bolt, et al, 2011; Ed. note: Camden Depot discussed this article briefly in a previous post) and “Risk of Serious Injury For Young Baseball Pitchers: A 10-Year Prospective Study” (Fleisig, Andrews, et al, 2011).

The first piece, concerning itself with the somewhat controversial training and rehabilitation practice known long-toss, Fleisig et al. (2011) set for the hypothesis that there are “kinetic…differences in the throwing shoulder and elbow” in long-toss when compared to pitching off a mound (p. 297). More than a dozen college-level pitchers were asked to long-toss from 37 meters, 55 meters, and from a “maximum distance”. For the 37 meter and 55 meter throws, the pitchers were required to throw with little to no arc, while no such restriction was placed on the “maximum distance” toss. Data from this session was collected using a motion capture device. On a separate occasion, the same pitchers were asked to throw their “standard” fastball from a mound, again whilst recorded by a motion capture device.

As Orioles fans, this is a study that should interest us considering the controversy surrounding Dylan Bundy’s own long-toss program around draft time and it’s potential long-term physical effects. While this particular study doesn’t provide any conclusive evidence in regard to long-term injury outlook, the study does show that both “shoulder and elbow torque increase with throwing distance” (p. 302). This leads the researchers to believe that long-toss, especially “maximum” distance long-toss may in fact be harmful to a pitcher—perhaps something to keep in mind when thinking about Bundy’s long-term health.

The article titled, “Risk of Serious Injury For Young Baseball Pitchers: a 10-Year Prospective Study”, focused on pitching injuries in young pitchers and seemingly dispels the widespread belief that youth pitchers shouldn’t throw breaking balls for fear of injury. A long-term study, the researchers monitored nearly 500 pitchers under the age of fourteen over a ten-year period. After hundreds and hundreds of interviews over the course of a decade, it was discovered that it wasn’t so much the pitch-type that led to injury, but rather the amount of pitches and innings thrown. Over the course of the study, Fleisig et al. discovered that pitchers who threw more than 100 innings in a single year “had about 3.5 times as much chance of serious injury as those who pitched less” while they couldn’t “determine whether pitchers who started throwing curveballs before age 13 years [had] a higher chance of injury” (p. 256). While not necessarily directly applicable to the major league level, research such as this only goes to show that so much of injury prevention lies within the rather simple philosophy of volume management.

I also had the chance to talk briefly with Will Carroll in regard to pitching injuries. Will, who got his start at Baseball Prospectus, now writes for Sports Illustrated, and has authored several books dealing with sports injuries, was kind enough to answer a couple of my questions.

A common theme when discussing pitching injuries on the Internet is the phrase “inverted w.”  Do you have any thoughts on the validity of inverted w's being dangerous to a pitcher's health?

I'm not a proponent of the Inverted W. Back when I was first learning about biomechanics, I talked to a lot of the top minds in the game and I felt like I knew enough to just look and see things. Well, as with umpires and the strike zone, sometimes our eyes lie. I want more than just observations - I want data. With biomechanics analysis, we can figure out how much stress a pitcher is actually putting on joints, how much force they're exerting, and then we need to move to fatigue and recovery. Few teams are doing the first part of this and fewer are doing the second. Should we wonder then why baseball has lost over a BILLION dollars to pitcher injuries in the last ten years? Moneyball talked about ASMI and their biomechanics lab, but you know how many teams use it now? Maybe two. 

Tommy John surgery has seemingly reached a point where we expect the pitcher to make a full recovery after 16-18 months. However, shoulder tears are still viewed as the boogey man of injuries. Will this always be the case? Can we expect to reach a point in the (relatively) near future in which pitchers who suffer labrum tears are expected to fully recover?

No. Dr. Neal ElAttrache was on a panel with me this summer and he's the guy for shoulders. (Once, Jim Andrews was asked what the first thing he does when he sees a torn labrum case and he said "call Neal for a consult.") Neal gave a great explanation which might still be up at the SABR site [Ed. Note: Audio of the panel can be found here] - the panel was at their annual convention - about how the shoulder is so complex, that its like putting together a puzzle without the box top. The elbow is a hinge. It moves one way. Look at how many things the shoulder can do and how many structures it takes to do it. Just move your shoulder around and pay attention to what it takes to move through various motions and you'll understand why it’s so tough to get it back to original condition.

An Interview with an Arm Injury Researcher, Part I

by Will Beaudouin

Will is a freelance writer who has written for Camden Depot previously.

Hayden Penn is now a Chiba Lotte Marines in JPL

Remember how we all used to pencil Chorye Spoone into future Orioles’ rotations? Can you recall the excitement surrounding Hayden Penn after he struck out 120 batters in 110 innings at Bowie? These were guys who were going to anchor the next great pitching staff in Baltimore. Unfortunately, both of their careers were hindered by various arm and shoulder injuries. Penn, along with falling down a set of stairs and being impaled by a broken bat, had elbow issues and went under the knife in 2007. Spoone suffered a labrum tear that appears to have ended any expectation of him becoming a Major League starter. If Penn and Spoone had stayed healthy, who knows what would have happened--it really can’t be over emphasized how important it is to keep your young pitchers healthy. Fortunately, there’s hope on the horizon that pitching injuries, as we know them, could be greatly diminished in the future.

Dr. Glenn Fleisig, research director at the American Sports Medicine Institute, is considered an expert in the field of pitching biomechanics and was kind enough to grant us an interview. At ASMI, Dr. Fleisig works with various pitchers—both professional and amateur—to correct flaws in their pitching mechanics with the ultimate goal of reducing injury. It’s his work that’s giving baseball fans hope that their favorite pitchers may soon have longer, healthier careers. A world in which a pitching prospects future is defined solely by their ability, rather than hearing the constant refrain of TINSTAAP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect)? I’d take that.

In the past you’ve worked with pitchers from the Mets, A’s, and Red Sox. What sort of information are you able to provide them?  How prevalent is it that teams request services like yours?

Pitchers of all levels – from youth league to Major Leagues – come to ASMI for biomechanical evaluation.  The purpose of the visit is usually two-fold: to minimize the risk of injury and maximize performance.  The pitcher’s biomechanics are compared against elite pitchers previously tested at ASMI and then we use our biomechanics knowledge to identify areas for improvement.  We are pretty much measuring motions and forces such as those discussed in [scholarly research] papers, but explaining it to the pitcher in coach in a much clearer way, with videos, pictures, and descriptions.  You can see what the process looks like at this link.

Several professional teams send players to ASMI, but we do not disclose the names of the teams or players to protect their privacy.  The team or player is welcomed to disclose that they came to ASMI, if they wish.  This is our privacy policy for professionals and for amateurs.

The key to successful evaluation is the coach (pitching coach and strength coach).  The biomechanical analysis is simply an evaluation of what is wrong and what should be fixed.  The evaluation is a diagnostic tool for the coach, as the coach is the one who works with the athlete.  I view this as analogous to an MRI for an injury.  An MRI doesn’t fix an injury; an MRI gives information to the medical professional who is the one who treats the injury.

What’s the future for the field of baseball and biomechanics?

Behind the scenes, many professional teams are now trying to use biomechanics to keep their pitchers healthy and successful.  Some of the teams work with ASMI on this, and others work with our biomechanists.  Biomechanics is helping some teams and some players, and I predict that this effort will continue to grow.  Think of this as “Moneyball, Part 2.”  As you know Michael Lewis’ Moneyball showed how the science of statistical trends can improve the performance of players and teams.  The science of biomechanics is now being used to improve the performance of players and teams.  “Moneyball, Part 2” is actually a very appropriate name for this phenomenon, as the Oakland A’s were the first pro team is use biomechanics as part of their program.  The A’s pitching coach Rick Peterson started bringing pitchers like Barry Zito and Tim Hudson to ASMI in 2002 (the season featured in the Moneyball movie). For more details of how this started in pro baseball, read this old interview.

So, to answer your question, I think biomechanics is being used more by some MLB teams than people realize.  I think the impact will become even greater in the near future.  I think the success depends on the following three issues:

1. The ability of biomechanists to clearly explain findings to coaches.

2. The ability of coaches to make changes in the mechanics of pitchers.

        3. The convenience of biomechanical testing. 

Note: up until now, a pitcher had to come to ASMI for an evaluation.  Pitchers still come to ASMI from all across the country, but ASMI now also has the capability to bring its lab to a team’s spring training facility.

In Part II we’ll talk about specific types of injuries, along with a look into some of Dr. Fleisig’s—and colleagues’—published research.

They lathe bats, don't they?: Making Bats for Orioles (Part II)

In part II, Allan Donato (DS Wood Bats (twitter)) and I discuss more on how bats are made.  This will include some information on what players ask for when ordering a bat and even a little bit on issues with bats breaking into splinters.

Jon Shepherd: When a player comes to you and asks for bats what specifications do they typically ask for? 

Allan Donato: When I speak to a player about their order, the important things are what wood type (ash, maple or birch), what bat model (a set model or custom model), length, weight, cup or no cup, finish, and engraving they would like.  There are a lot more variables than most people think.

JS: From your own experience, what makes for a good bat?

AD: Not only does the quality of the wood make a bat good, but making it exactly like the client wants makes it a good bat.  I see bats a lot of times that are not made exactly as the player asks and they are disappointed.  Majority of the time, this has to do with the bat being heavier than they would like.  Feel is a big thing in baseball.  Players want the bat to feel a certain way, and you must duplicate that feeling. 

JS: There has been a great deal of talk about wood types and the danger of shattering bats.  Is this something that has to be accepted as part of the game or not?  Have you looked into ways for making bats safer and what would they be?

AD: There definitely has been a great deal of talk about the shattering of maple bats lately.  I think it has been accepted as part of the game for a while now, but as of late I believe they are trying to educate the players and public more and show them this should not happen to the extent it has.  The testing done by a third party company through MLB has done a great job of showing what is causing the breakages and helping to educate and resolve the problem. 

 

JS: Not being a maker of bats, I imagine I am missing things that might be important with respect to making an excellent bat.  Is there anything you would like to add?

 

AD: I think one thing that gets over looked about the smaller companies like ourselves is the amount of handcrafting that goes into every bat.  We aren't the type of large company with numerous lathes and automatic sanders that has machines doing the vast majority of the work.  Every bat has hands touching it from the mill, to the lathe, to the finishing room.  Every aspect is done by hand in some fashion.  There is a lot of time and effort that goes into every single bat.

 

JS: Finally, this may be too technical for some, but what pieces of equipment do you use to make a bat and how long does it take to make one?

 

AD: We have three lathes that we use to cut and sand the bats.  One of our lathes is a Centauro which is used to duplicate and model that we turn by hand.  We also have a Jet lathe that is much smaller and used to turn our models by hand and make templates, along with a Delta that we use to sand our bats by hand.  For finishing the bats we also use a laser engraver to engrave the model, name and team into the bat.

They lathe bats, don't they?: Making Bats for Orioles

We here at Camden Depot enjoy looking at baseball in ways that we think are often overlooked.  Sometimes this includes interviews.  In the past we have interviewed a fellow evaluator of talent in A ball, a writer of Japanese baseball, the author of a book on baseball statistics, an agent that represented several Orioles players, a blogger of Cuban baseball, and a film maker who is putting together a documentary on baseball in the Dominican which featured Miguel Sano.  I typically do not go out of my way to grab interviews, but when something interesting falls into my lap . . . it makes sense to me.  

Website

A month or so ago, I was talking to one of my readers about the utility of the way I was evaluating college hitters.  In the midst of that conversation, he mentioned that one of his ex-teammates on Purdue's baseball team had recently started up a baseball bat wood working operation, DS Wood Bats (twitter).  To make it more relevant to the Baltimore Orioles, this outfit supplies several players in the organization with bats.  I contacted one of the founders, Allan Donato, and will share his answers about how he started his business and bat making in general.

Jon Shepherd: What led you to becoming a professional bat maker?  What is the proper name for someone who makes bats?

Allan Donato: I grew up in Harrisburg, PA where I didn't necessarily focus on baseball primarily, but always had a huge love for the game.  I was an all-state baseball player in high school and ended up taking a scholarship to play collegiately at Purdue University. I played for a bit after college in the Frontier League (Independent) before being approached with the idea to begin this business by my business partner, Richie Schwartz.  Rich played collegiately at Lebanon Valley College and was working in politics at the time and had decided he wanted to continue to be in baseball.  He had a true passion for hitting and loved bats.  He had some woodworking experience and sold me on the fact that he could make bats.  We bought a lathe that week and the rest is history.  It took a great deal of research, trial and error, and effort to get this point.  We have come a long way. 

JS: Interesting.  By the way, what is the proper term for someone who makes bats?  I'd hate to get this wrong.

AD: I have no idea what the proper term would be for a people who make bats, but I truly believe it is an art.  Most people don't understand the craftsmanship that goes into producing a bat for someone.  When people come visit our shop and watch us they really appreciate it afterwards.

JS: I have noticed that several players in the Orioles organization use bats you make.  How have you been able to take a small business and rapidly make such gains in the market?

AD: It took a few things to really take our small business and make us grow this rapidly.  First, the product itself has been amazing.  We are extremely confident in the wood and the craftsmanship, and truly believe we make the best bats on the market.  Not only the product, but it takes being approved for use in the major and minor leagues and also the relationships we have developed.  Once we became approved, myself and our VP of Operations, Jared Smith, traveled down to spring training and went camp to camp to develop the relationships we have established today.  Finally, it also takes flat out luck.  

 

We got in touch with Nick Markakis through luck.  Billy Rowell, one of our clients on the Bowie Baysox, ordered bats a few days before Bowie was in Harrisburg to play the Senators.  When Richie delivered the bats, he brought a few extras and happened to run into Jeff Fiorentino who tried our bats and loved them.  Jeff raved about our product, ordered from us, and then offered to contact his close friend Nick for us.  Once we got bats to Nick, he was very happy with them also and has continued to work with us to this day.  So as you can see, it definitely takes a great deal of skill and hard work, but it takes some luck also.

JS: Which players in the Orioles organization use your bats? 

AD: We have bats in the hands of Nick Markakis, Jake Fox, Brandon Snyder, Robert Andino, Billy Rowell, Joe Mahoney, as well as a few others.  I also have several other minor league players who have reached out to me to try our product as they have seen it at several levels.

 

JS: What are the future plans for DS Wood Bats?

 

AD: Our plans for the future have changed quite a bit over the past year because of how quickly we have grown.  Right now I would say our plans for the future are to continue to build the clientele in the major and minor leagues through showing the great quality of our product and ability to give the client exactly what they are looking for.  I think in turn, we will expand our amateur market drastically by showing the drastic rise in popularity of our product in the pro market.  Again, we have grown so much so quickly, that our plans can change quickly, but ultimately we definitely want to make sure we entrench ourselves in the pro market.

 

---

In part II (which will be posted on Thursday), Allan and I discuss focus more on how bats are made.  This will include some information on what players ask for when ordering a bat and even a little bit on issues with bats breaking into splinters.

Japanese Baseball Blog: Yakyu Baka (interview)

To many in the United States, Japanese baseball is a rather vague concept. We are aware every once in a while of an impressive player like Yu Darvish, but often only pay attention when an individual is being posted or is an unrestricted free agent. It is rare for most MLB fans to pay attention to any player's career as it unfolds. Difficulties include finding comprehensive analysis packaged for a reader of English as well as just a basic understanding in the differences between the game in Japan and in the United States.

The past few years, we have seen more interest in international baseball as MLB teams are reaching into Europe, India, and with a rapid influx of Cuban talent after Dayan Viciendo signed. Greater awareness has also turned to Japan where youth (Junichi Tazawa) is beginning to trickle into the States. This has created a much broader and informed group of fans that actively search out information about baseball in these regions.

Earlier we discussed the game in Cuba with Cubano and today we are interviewing Gen, the author of the Japanese Baseball Blog Yakyu Baka. This web site is a great source of information for those of us who are taking more of an interest in the Japanese game. I suggest everyone to check it out.

After the jump, Gen answers several questions quite extensively. It is a great read.


Camden Depot: Can you introduce yourself, your background, and explain what you do with your website?

Gen: My name is Gen. I was born and raised by Japanese parents in New York. I was a huge Yankee fan (since the 1980s) before moving to Japan 6 years ago. I now find that I'm spending less time following the Yankees / MLB and more time following Japanese baseball.

I started providing daily coverage on as much as I can about Japanese baseball (or yakyu) about a year ago, beginning with the WBC. It wasn't until later that I started doing it under the Yakyubaka title. I'm just a one man show so there are obviously limits in what I can do, but I try my best. I'm also not a professional analyst, just a really big fan of baseball.

CD: When the Orioles' Koji Uehara was signed, it was mentioned that he threw a shuuto. It was roughly explained to me that a shuuto is similar to a screwball. It also appears that any Japanese pitcher that throws one, abandons the pitch when he moves over to Major League Baseball. Is this accurate? Why do you think the pitch is more effective in Japan?

G: The shuto (or shuuto) is a tough pitch to put your finger on. Mostly because different people have different opinions on it. If you talk to baseball people in the US, they'll probably say that the shuto looks like a sinker or a two-seam fastball. If you talk to baseball people in Japan, some will probably say there is no US equivalent, while others might agree that it's similar to a two-seamer. You'd figure by now that there would be some sort of general consensus, but that doesn't really appear to be the case. To make things even more complicated is that not every pitcher throws it the same exact way.

I found this video that might help explain the shuto a bit more. It's in Japanese, but I think you can get a feel for what they're saying just by watching. This particular video explains the shuto as being something opposite to the slider. Incidentally, during the graphic where they show the grips, they also mentions that some pitchers don't use the seems at all.

As for why pitchers might abandon the pitch... There's a difference in the style of play between the MLB and the NPB. Perhaps the following will help illustrate the point a little better.

Yu Darvish (Nippon Ham Fighters), Hideaki Wakui (Seibu Lions), and Masahiro Tanaka (Rakuten Eagles) are likely in the top for pitchers in the NPB right now. They're also all under 25. I suppose it should also be noted that they pitch in the Pacific League.

Now, as for why I bring them up, it's because of the following stat (from the 2009 season):

Darvish threw his fastball 34% of the time. Wakui 36%. Tanaka 38%.

While there are pitchers in Japan that throw a lot of fastballs, the fact that three of Japan's top pitchers throw the fastball less than 40% of the time shows a different trend than in the US.

To extend the thought further, according to data posted at Data Stadium's blog [ http://www.plus-blog.sportsnavi.com/input/article/70 ], the fastball was thrown 46% of the time (the data is for 2009 and only through to July 1). In comparison, based on what I could gather at Fangraphs [ http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&&type=4&season=2009&month=0 ], the fastball was thrown close to 60% of the time in the Majors in 2009. It seems pitchers in the NPB also throw a lot more sliders as well: 25% vs the MLB's 14% or so.

Of course, this is over just one year. And not even a complete year for the NPB, but I think its a good start in terms of showing how differently the game is played in Japan.

One other thing: I wonder if it might be possible that the shuto is getting "lost in translation" when it hits the Majors. In other words, how do we know if Japanese pitchers are abandoning their shutos if they're throwing two-seamers and sinkers? Couldn't it be possible that those pitches are just re-packaged shutos?

Incidentally, that Baseball Stadium chart also lists the shuto at 6%.

* for those that don't know, Baseball Stadium is the company that records / stores baseball data for the NPB.

CD: It has been mentioned (most recently with Dice-K) that rest between starts, pitches thrown per game, and pitching loads differ between Japan and the US. Could you elaborate on the differences that a pitcher might face?

G: Most teams in Japan tend to go with a 6-man rotation. And with at least one day off each week, that means pitchers usually have one start per week. There's also usually no such thing as a pitch limit, unless there's concern for an injury. For example, during Spring camp this year, there were pitchers that threw 200+ pitches in one bullpen session. I'm guessing that's something you would never see happen in the US. But in Japan, it shows fighting spirit and is considered one of the best way to improve stamina.

There are other things to take into consideration like longer travel times, longer seasons, different timezones, different diets, different training programs, different cultures, language barriers... All of these things can add up and create fluctuations in a pitcher's stamina.

I think there's also something to be said of the size of the balls and the mounds as well.

While the basic requirements for baseballs between the two countries are basically the same, Japanese baseball makers (ZETT, Mizuno, ASICS, Kubota) tend to make baseballs based on the minimum values while the US baseball maker (Rawlings) tend to make them based on the maximum values. This is why you hear lot about MLB baseball being bigger than Japanese baseballs. MLB baseballs also tend to have smoother surfaces with stitching that more pronounced. Depending on the pitcher, they may abandon certain pitchers based on whether or not they can comfortably throw it.

For a comparison, take a look here:

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41AlFgveT-L.jpg

http://cobra65.org/CIMG2624.jpg

As for the mounds, based on things I've read, Japanese mounds tend to be softer than their MLB counterparts. I have no idea which is actually better for the leg, but it would seem a softer landing surface would be better suited to absorbing shock. I wouldn't be surprised if the harder mounds were causing more strain (or at least different kinds of strain) which could maybe explain why Japanese pitchers get tired more quickly.

These are just guesses though. Someone that knows more about muscles and surfaces would be better suited to diving further into this topic.

And to take all of this further, I think I might go so far as to say that NPB pitchers will never have pro-longed success AS STARTERS in the Majors. Age will of course determine length -- the older player is when they get to the Majors, the fewer years they'll have, in general, to have good years. But more than that, I think that by the time an NPB pitcher gets to the Majors, it's almost too late to re-program their bodies.

Maybe that's an extreme view to take. The jury is still out on Daisuke Matsuzaka. He could certainly break the mold.

A couple of players I'll be watching this season, with keen interest, will be Colby Lewis and Junichi Tazawa.

Lewis played under Marty Brown so there might not be much different with him (in terms of conditioning), but he did have success in Japan. I'm interested in seeing how that translates in the Majors. As for Tazawa, I hear the Red Sox might give him a look as a reliever. That could actually work out in favor of Tazawa. Let him get used to the rigors of the MLB as a reliever and once he does, shift him into the rotation when a spot opens up.

In fact, just on a whim, I think it might make more sense to start Japanese pitchers as relievers and then move them out once they get a hang of pitching in the Majors. It would take more time, but it would give them the prep time to make the conversion. Tazawa may be young, but he grew up playing baseball in Japan. If you think NPB practices can be tough, high school practices can sometimes be even tougher.

CD: What are your thoughts on the Gentleman's Agreement between the leagues in which MLB has agreed not to sign Japanese amateurs? From what I have seen (particularly with Junichi Tazawa) that teams will eventually ignore the agreement. What would that mean for Japanese baseball?

G: This is a tough one for me because I really love watching Japanese baseball. The last thing I want to see is the domestic talent pool drained because of the MLB. I don't know think that will necessarily happen, for a number of reasons which I won't get into here, but the fact that it can does bother me a little.

At the same time, I also understand why players would want to go the MLB -- more money, more security, better competition.

The biggest problem with the NPB faces right now is the 4 player limit on foreign players (you can also never have all four spots taken up by just pitchers or just position position players). If the NPB can either increase that number or get rid of the limit entirely, it would like boost the level of play across the board.

While I can't ever imagine the NPB removing the limit completely, I think even a slight increase, to say 6 players, could change things drastically.

CD: Long-term, what do you think will be the state of Japanese baseball? Some have compared it to the Pacific League in the 1940s and 1950s, which rivaled MLB until MLB relocated and established franchises on the West Coast of the United States.

G: This is a tough question. I think if nothing changes, the NPB will be in serious trouble (financially, it already sort of is). I tend to see the glass half-empty in these kinds of situations, so maybe things aren't quite as dark as I think they are, but I honestly do feel that what happens over the next 3-5 years will help determine which direction the NPB is really going. After all, there's only so many years a league can operate in the red. The NPB is hoping international tournaments can help bring in some extra revenue, just like the WBC did in 2009, but I think that's just a temporary solution to a much larger problem.

CD: Thanks again for your time, Gen.

Gen is the author behind the blog Yakyu Baka.

Beyond Batting Average and interview with author Lee Panas

As many of us who discuss sabermetrics and statistics in general and how they relate to baseball; it is a subject that carries a broad range of awareness and acceptance in conversations about the game. The most recent statistical discussions have occurred over the past decade and taken place on the internet. As conducive as the internet is to share information and quickly acclimate to new truths and create or discover new applications, it has some problems as it is a very ephemeral library. Little is written down and much is carried on in a digitalized form similar to Homer. Web sites close shop, people get hired and their work gets scrubbed, and many baseball critics do not follow rules of citation very well. It makes it difficult to get caught up to speed on the conversation even if you are interested in how to use metrics in baseball.

A problem I have often seen when a book is written about sabermetrics is that they are often grooved for those in the mid- to hi- level of competency in the field. Introductory level works are hard to find and are a major reason why many web sites are beginning to post running SABR 101 FAQ's on their sites. It has also led to SABR series on Yahoo! and other online publications. Thankfully, I think I have found an actual book that is somehow both a handy introduction to what statistics mean and their utility in baseball as well as a resource for more advanced users of metrics (which is quite needed as metrics are often used incorrectly). Lee Panas' Beyond Batting Average is this book.

Panas does well to present the historical time line of statistics from Chadwick's original descriptive statistics to Branch Rickey and his usage of ISO to present day concepts like linear and nonlinear metrics. One amusing side note indicates how folks complained about new metrics in the late 1800s just as people do now with stats like WAR or xFIP. Panas does well to give you the formulas for advanced stats if you wish to play around with them, but moreso they act as an illustration letting you know what each statistic accounts for and how they are weighted. In the text, he simply and straight-forwardly explains what the formulas mean and how that effects statistical outputs. He informs the reader what each stat does well and their limitations.

As you have noticed I rarely review a book, but this is one that I think merited that. It is a solid addition to anyone's library. The introductory baseball statistics reader who wants to learn more and be able to start engaging in conversations about metrics would find this most useful. More advanced readers will see this as being useful at times for the quick to grab metrics and have a solid citation when making a claim about repeatability for a certain statistic and how that might relate to a skill.

Lee was kind enough to take part in an interview with Camden Depot. It is shown in full after the jump.


Camden Depot: I often find it important when reading a book to understand who the author is and from where personal experience is he/she writing. I was hoping you could give us your background, information about the blog you write, and other items you think potential readers of your book would be interested in.

Lee Panas: I have been interested in sabermetrics since the early 1980s. Bill James was writing his Baseball Abstracts at the time and he was a big influence on me. In addition, I was studying mathematics and statistics in college and some of my classes required me to apply statistical methods to real data. So, I used baseball statistics in a few of my projects. This gave me the opportunity to prepare for my career as a research analyst while learning more about baseball at the same time.
I have been writing at DetroitTigerTales.com since 2005. I discuss a lot of topics besides statistics there - Tigers history, prospects, transactions, etc - but sabermetrics has always been the overriding theme. I have written a lot about baserunning and fielding statistics in particular. In addition to my blog , I am currently writing about the Tigers for John Burnson's Heater Magazine. I have also contributed to books such as Tigers Corner, Graphical Player and How Bill James Changed Our View of Baseball.

CD: From experience, I have found that taking on a large endeavor (i.e. a book) often comes from a moment of transcending excitement and then several months of trying to pay dues to that initial moment of inspiration. Was there a singular moment that convinced you that you had to write this book? If not, where do you think this urge originated?

LP: There was not really a single moment where I decided to write a book. It's something that has been building for a long time. I have avidly been discussing baseball on message boards and blogs for a couple of decades. Much of my time has involved explaining sabermetrics to people. In the early years, there wasn't a great deal of interest in the subject. However, I have noticed a lot more people getting curious about it in recent years. Blogging has been a good way to educate more people about the field but I can only give small does in that format. Thus, it became increasingly clear that I wanted to write a book where I could tie all the information together into a complete story.


CD: The sabermetric field has seemed to me that it is moving toward a goal that is to evaluate the true talent of a player. That is, a progression from simple descriptive statistics to predictive/evaluative ones. From what I have read in your book as well as the outline, it seems to me that you very much support this perspective on moving toward predictive statistics. Do you think anything (i.e. blind luck, MVPs) is lost or being lost (or devalued) in terms of appreciation by doing this and is that bad?

LP: For the most part, I think trying to evaluate a player with predictive statistics is a good thing. As you know, some of the more traditional statistics are based on things that are largely beyond a player's influence. It makes sense to eliminate as many outside factors as possible and to evaluate a player on things he can control most easily. I think that we are getting increasingly better at finding statistics which more accurately define a player's true talent.
There is, however, the potential for skills to get lost in this approach if we are not careful. I'll use ERA as an example. Statistics such as a strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball percentage and FIP are more predictive than ERA for most pitchers. However, they don't take into account the ability of a pitcher to pump up his fastball or to induce a double play ball with runners on base. It has been shown that this has more to do with overall pitcher quality than clutch pitching ability. However, I think more work needs to be done to identify pitchers who may have more ability to pitch in high impact situations than others. For these pitchers, ERA might be telling us something that the so called true talent stats are missing.

CD: One of the more fearsome aspects of writing a book on baseball statistics is that the community is internet based and the level of information progresses so quickly. I think you have done a great job is writing something that is rather resilient in light of that. How did your recognition of the blinding pace of statistical innovation direct you in writing this book?

LP: First, I think the fast pace of sabermetrics has left some people frustrated because they can't keep up. That is one of the reasons I wrote the book. By organizing all the information in one place, I think it helps people catch up. I also hope through reading the book, fans will understand more about the reasoning behind the statistics. This should help readers make sense of future measures more quickly.

One thing I have done throughout the book is to include a bit of history showing the evolution from simple traditional measures to the more advanced measures of today. I think this better prepares readers for the future advances in statistics than if I just dove into the present and talked about the statistics developed in the last two years.

CD: You have mentioned before that you largely relied on peer review for this book. Can you tell us some of the people you consulted in writing this book?

LP: I think peer review is essential in this kind of effort. It's a complex subject and I wanted make sure I got everything right. There are a couple of important sections of the book that might have been left out if it were not for the suggestions of others. There was also a matter of educating myself in certain areas. I had a good handle on most of the statistics coming in but there were a couple of instances where I was not interpreting statistics as accurately as I could. So, I was glad to have the developers of the statistics correct me. Finally, I think peer review helped me write the book in a way that would make it accessible to as many people as possible. For example, there were some sections in early drafts which reviewers felt were a little too mathematical for my target audience. I either eliminated those sections or wrote them more simply.

The reviewers ranged anywhere from very talented sabermetricians who know the field better than I do to intelligent baseball fans who are relatively new to sabermetrics. Some of the key contributors in alphabetical order are John Dewan, Brandon Heipp (aka U.S. Patriot), Chuck Hildebrandt, Justin Inaz, Mitchel Lichtman, Kurt Mensching, Pete Palmer, Samara Pearlstein, Tom Tango and Geoff Young. There were many others but I think this gets the point across that I got input from a lot of different kinds of people.

CD: Thanks again Lee. Very well done.

LP: Thanks very much for the interview.

Lee Panas' blog is Tiger Tales and has recently written, Beyond Batting Average.

Interview with agent Joshua Kusnick

In the past few weeks we have interviewed Jon Paley (one of the creative minds behind the baseball documentary Pelotero) and a local blog that focuses on amateur talent emerging from Cuba. Today, we are talking with Joshua Kusnick an agent who represents three players in the Baltimore Orioles organization: Jonathan Tucker, Vito Frabizio, and Joshua Bell. His approach is considered somewhat non-traditional in comparison to other agents. He is quite accessible. Kusnick runs a blog and even appears on message boards drumming up questions from fans. It is a style that appears to resonate well with many of the younger professional athletes including Bobby Cassevah, David Herndon, Zack Kroenke, Trayvon Robinson, Kenley Jansen, Michael Brantley, Darren Ford, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Periard and Phillippe Valiquette. Kusnick has also just signed on to write a column for Baseball Prospectus, which is quite exciting.



Tigers Prospect Scott Drucker and Joshua Kusnick at the Moves Magazine Super Bowl Party.

Camden Depot, among other blogs, often overlooks the contribution made by sports agents and their effect on the game. In response to that common oversight, we invited Joshua Kusnick here today to discuss the path he took in becoming an agent for baseball players, discuss Frabizio and Bell, and his beliefs in how an agent should represent his clients.

Entire interview after the jump.


Camden Depot: I have read that your start in scouting was rather unique in comparison to other agents. Could you introduce the reader to your background and how you think that helps you secure and well represent your clients?

Joshua Kusnick: My career in sports started when I was around 10 years old. I had the opportunity to be the batboy for the Orioles during spring training a couple of times when I was a kid so that was really my first exposure being around a big league club house. During my teenage years, actually when I was 14 years old, I began getting autographs of minor league baseball players. Most of the games I attended were in West Palm Beach watching Florida State League baseball, so I had the good fortune of watching guys like Vlad Guerrero, Brad Fullmer, Roy Halladay, Matt Morris, Freddy Garcia, Ramon Castro etc….

During one of these games, I believe it was my last year of getting autographs so that had to be the year 2000, I was sitting next to a scout who basically changed my life forever. We chatted the entire game, he gave me his card and over the course of several months we developed a pretty good friendship. He told me if I ever wanted a job in scouting to let him know so in time that’s exactly what I did. Back before everything was readily available on the internet I crunched all the draft figures for this scout every year in addition to doing some very low level unofficial bird dog work. After a couple of years of part time work I decided to start my company with my father and the rest is history.

I feel one of the advantages I have in this field is my ability to independently evaluate talent. Some agents rely on scouts and some even hire scouts to find players for them because they lack the ability to determine a player’s ultimate value. I am beyond fortunate that I don’t have to rely on anyone other than myself to scout players. The fact that I can scout does not mean I don’t talk to other people in the game to get their input on certain players and it doesn’t mean that I’m right far more than I’m wrong but what it does do for me is provide a slight edge on some of the competition. When you represent a player you have to know what you’re selling. You have to know your product better than anyone else because you’re making a long term commitment that will cost you ample time and money, so you better be damn sure you know what you’re getting yourself into and lucky for me, I usually do.

CD: Vito Frabizio is a client of yours who has also taken a unique route to the professional ranks. We here at Camden Depot first took note of Frabizio in Perfect Game's 2008 World Showcase. How did you come to represent him and how would you describe his current talent and his progression as a ball player since you can to represent him?

JK: I met Vito through a mutual friend during the 2008 off season. Vito was working out at my old high school American Heritage in plantation Florida, a school where I represented two players who were drafted that year (JC Sulbaran and Adrian Nieto). Vito is like a brother to me and we clicked instantly. Our personalities are quite similar and we’ve shared a lot of the same experiences in life so getting hired wasn’t terribly difficult fortunately. Vito has added some weight to his frame since we signed him which has made a world of difference on the field. His ability to throw multiple pitches for strikes has improved in addition to adding velocity to his fastball since we’ve represented him. Vito is a very special young man and the sky is the limit when it comes to his potential. It’s all going to come down to his attitude and his health.

CD: Your client, Josh Bell, has always been on the periphery of scouting lists, but really established himself as a prime prospect this past year by making great progress in his defense at third and his development from the left side of the plate. Keith Law mentioned that Bell has a promising career in front of him, but is still a work in progress. It was also mentioned that the Orioles have a better development program than the Dodgers, which took me by surprise. From your perspective, what new opportunities or benefits opened up for Bell when he was traded to the Orioles?

JK: I think very highly of both organizations with respect to player development. We have several Dodgers prospects in our company (Trayvon Robinson, Kenley Jansen, Justin Sellers) as well as several Orioles prospects (Josh Bell, Jonathan Tucker, and Vito Frabizio). I feel that all these kids have been given every chance to succeed in their respective organizations. The Dodgers always viewed Josh as a very special prospect and I know it was difficult for guys like [Assistant General Manager (Player Development)] De Jon Watson and [Assistant General Manager (Amateur/International)] Logan White to give up Josh in the Sherrill trade last season. I think Josh had a great chance to make an impact with the Dodgers over time but it seems he’s on the fast track to some extent now that he is with the Orioles. Baltimore seems to have a clear plan in place for Josh and I think this trade was the best thing to happen to Josh since signing his first contract out of high school.

CD: Another question about development . . . to what extent do you think an agent should encourage his client to disagree with his organization? For instance, in the Orioles system there have been alleged instances where a player's individual trainer/coach has provided contradictory instruction in comparison to the team's instructors. Do you think an agent should encourage third party instruction or evaluation? How do you handle such a situation as I imagine the organization likes to act with as few people in the decision making process as possible?

JK: My responsibility always is to the player. Obviously it is mutually beneficial for the player, the agent and the team to all be on the same page because ultimately all three parties are working towards the same goal but at the end of the day I will always side with my client. I think an agent should always work towards the best interests of his clients no matter what. I also think a player should always do what he feels is in his best interests regarding his career. An agent is the player’s voice to his organization and that comes with a great deal of responsibility. Do players and the teams see eye to eye on every issue? No, but that’s what an agent is there for, to bridge the gap and hopefully come to a mutually beneficial conclusion.

CD: A week or so ago on your personal blog you commented on the Tiger Woods apology press release. I thought it to be a very interesting and informative look behind the scenes in what an agent does for the player and how each partner in this relationship is dependent on the other for success. I was hoping that you could elaborate on how you, as an agent, are involved with a player and his family beyond the contracts and interviews with the press?

JK: I literally am on call 24 hours a day for all of my players regardless of what I am doing. The long term goals of my career are directly dependent on my clients and how they perform on and off the field. Personally, I try to get as involved as I can with a player and his family. I get to know players wives, girlfriends, mothers and fathers. I’ve been in fantasy baseball leagues with some clients and their families, I go to dinner with many clients’ parents, I stay in touch with the players wives, girlfriends and families as much as they allow me to. Every relationship is up to the player. Some guys prefer to keep it business only and other players appreciate how involved I am willing to get in their lives and careers. I’ve had several players live with me and I take great pride in being as hands on as I am with respect to my clients lives off the field.

CD: I would like to thank Joshua Kusnick for taking time to discuss his practice and some of the players he represents.