Camden Depot's Orioles' Top 10 Prospects: 1 through 5

In the past year, we lost an amazing resource, Nick Faleris, to Baseball Prospectus.  It will be difficult to replace the skills he had for talent evaluation, but we will soldier on as best we can while suggesting that you should head over to Baseball Prospectus and take a look at his work.  Sadly, his responsibilities and new readership are more broad, so his Orioles' work there is not as immediately detailed as it was here.  However, ask him about something and he does well to get back to you with his thoughts.

That said, this year we are moving forward with a group approach.  I will now be producing the prospect rankings list along with new writers, Jeremy Strain and Joe Reisel.  Jeremy's opinion are largely formed by the regional scouting trips he makes, the scouts he knows, and being generally well read in all of the trade journals.  Joe takes in quite a many games in Norfolk and provides datacasting for BIS and their fielding metrics.  My background is heavily bent toward statistics (which often are of little use when assessing minor league play), video work, some personal scouting nearby, and my connections.  I want to be transparent here with our backgrounds to let you know how we are informed to make our decisions.  So much of internet prospecting is a black box and it really does not need to be that.

The methodology for this post was that each of the three writers would identify their own top twelve players.  Weighted scores would be derived from those rankings, which then would result in the final composite system.  Here is the ranking:

No. 1 - RHP Dylan Bundy
Ht/Wt - 6'1", 200
B/T - B/R
Age at 6/13 - 20y 7m
Drafted 1:4 by Baltimore in 2011
Prospect Grade - A (65)

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2012	19	Baltimore	MLB	0	0	0.00	2	0	3.0	0	2	3	9.0	0.0	6.6	9.0
2012	19	Delmarva	A	1	0	0.00	8	8	30.0	0	2	40	1.5	0.0	0.6	12.0
2012	19	Frederick	A+	6	3	2.84	12	12	57.0	5	18	66	7.6	0.8	2.8	10.4
2012	19	Bowie	AA	2	0	3.24	3	3	16.2	1	8	13	7.6	0.5	4.3	7.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

In 2011, the draft was rich with elite pitching prospects.  Dylan Bundy was the fourth overall selection as well as the fourth pitcher selected.  Before him were Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Trevor Bauer.  A year and a half later, Baseball America ranks them as Bundy (2nd overall), Cole (7th), Bauer (14th - who was traded by the Diamondbacks for a somewhat limited ceiling SS prospect), and Hultzen (29th).  Baseball Prospectus saw them slightly differently with Cole (3rd) leading, Bundy in 4th, Bauer 24th, and Hultzen 50th.  Needless to say, the Orioles did pretty well for themselves selecting fourth as the two prominent prospect evaluation sources rate him as either the best or second best pitching prospect in baseball.

Most readers of the site likely saw him during his two appearances in relief with Baltimore last season and perhaps you have noted the many pictures that make their way through Twitter illustrating his incredible work ethic.  However, it might be useful to brush up on his abilities.  Bundy was noted as an amateur for his clean delivery and two signature pitches.  He threw a loud upper 90s fastball and had a devastating cutter.  Both profiled as plus plus caliber pitches.  Once in the midst of a professional schedule with less rest between outing, his fastball lost a couple ticks and he now works in the mid 90s.  It still is a plus pitch, but Bundy began to mix in a two seamer last Summer that very effectively gives a look different from his four seamer.  He has excellent command of both pitches.

The Orioles organization decided that Bundy would not use his cutter professionally.  Though, once he establishes himself in the Majors, it has been mentioned that the Orioles will let him reintroduce the pitch to his repertoire.  Not throwing it in such a long time is a bit of a risk, but typically once you have a pitch, it is probably still there.  Why did the team tell him to get rid of it?  There is some organizational thought that the cutter hurts arm strength and that it is so effective in the minors that it can prevent pitchers from learning to develop acceptable breaking balls and change ups.

Speaking of breaking balls and change ups, Bundy is ahead with his curve ball in comparison to his change up.  The curve has been very uneven (as you may recall from his cup of coffee last September).  When he throws it well, it has the makings of a plus pitch with great 12 to 6 drop.  The change up does not look like it will be as kind to him, but he does show some understanding of it to make it an average pitch.

We expect Dylan to dominate Norfolk and be in Baltimore some time in June when the club can keep him an additional year of service.  The only thing derailing that time table would be solid performance by the opening day rotation, absence of injuries to the rotation, or Kevin Gausman breaking out and surpassing Bundy.

No. 2 - RHP Kevin Gausman
Ht/Wt - 6'4", 185
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 22y 5m
Drafted 1:4 by Baltimore in 2012
Prospect Grade - A- (60)

Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
21	Aberdeen	NYPL	A-	0	0	0.00	2	2	6.0	0	0	5	1.5	0.0	0.0	7.5
21	Frederick	CARL	A+	0	1	6.00	3	3	9.0	3	1	8	10.0	3.0	1.0	8.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Selecting fourth in the draft, the Orioles selected Gausman, who we viewed as the top talent.  Before Gausman (BA: 26th, BP: 13th), were Carlos Correa (Houston; BA:13th, BP: 26th), Byron Buxton (Minnesota; BA: 10th, BP: 8th), and Mike Zunino (Seattle; BA: 17th, BP: 33rd).

You may have also noted that despite all of the powdered donuts he partakes in, that Gausman has a lean yet strong athletic build with an easy delivery.  His most notable strength is his fast ball that peaks at 100 mph, which has been on display during his outings this Spring.  However, like Bundy's fastball, the velocity is expected to regress with a greater workload.  As it stands now, it is a plus plus offering with a plus floor with any velocity loss.  Gausman has excellent command of the pitch.  He also uses a two seamer for an effective, different look.  His slider is inconsistent, but flashes plus.  His change up looks ahead of Bundy's, but also rates as average.  Gausman's arm action looks better to me when throwing it, so it might become a plus pitch (which is something others have also communicated to me as well).

I expect Gausman to wind up in Baltimore sometime this Summer.  The speed at which he harnesses the change up will determine whether he or Bundy goes up first.  If Gausman can turn his change and curve into consistent plus pitches then he might be the better pitcher in the long term.  Regardless, if both pan out, they will provide the Orioles with one of the best front of the rotations in baseball.  That said, pitchers tend to be a difficult commodity to project.  Gausman's A- grade was the product of Jeremy and myself being comfortable with Gausman's lack of professional experience while Joe conservatively waits for him to prove his college success will be replicated.  From my perspective, the quality of his pitches and the quality of his command provide me with enough assurances that he will continue to be a successful pitcher.

No. 3 - 2B/3B Jonathan Schoop
Ht/Wt - 6'1", 185
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 21y 8m
International Free Agent - Curacao
Prospect Grade - B (54)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2009	17	Orioles	DOSL	FRk	68	284	7	3	0	11	3	24	39	.239	.320	.291
2010	18	3 Teams	3 Lgs	Rk-A+	62	240	18	1	5	1	1	20	25	.290	.350	.453
2011	19	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A+-A	128	567	24	5	13	12	7	42	76	.290	.349	.432
2012	20	Bowie	EL	AA	124	555	24	1	14	5	3	50	103	.245	.324	.386

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Schoop has earned a great honor by serving as the starting second baseman for the Netherlands 2013 World Baseball Classic team.  At the time of this writing, he had played in three games, going 1 for 9 with a home run and a walk.  You can see that there is a pretty good baseball player developing, but he is still a season or two away from being a useful role player in Baltimore.

In the long run, third base is Schoop's home.  From the WBC games, you can see that he has a poor reaction time, but makes up for it with solid close body skills and a strong, accurate arm.  To put it another way, if you ignore the accurate arm part of it, it should be a description that sounds eerily familiar to Mark Reynolds.  Reynolds looked good, but his shoes appeared anchored to the ground.  It often wound up with balls going by him or him being put in an awkward position.  Schoop appears to have significantly better reactions than Reynolds to work at third base, but not at second where it combines with his poor speed to leave him with only a small range that he can cover.

That said, his bat looks good enough to play third base, but it is not certain that it can actually play at the major league level.  Again, as coincidentally shown in the WBC, watch the following video:

The outside part of the plate is where much of Scope's power shows up.  That coincides with a bit of a bat wrap that makes his swing long.   The catcher sets up Dushan Ruzic outside on a fat pitch that Schoop takes advantage of.  It is also apparent on the second video that popped up on YouTube as well:

Whether he is back in Bowie this year or moves on to Norfolk, he will have to work to eliminate the wrap.  With more advanced pitchers, Schoop will have to show he can adjust or simply peter out in the high minors.

I think the skills are there and I think he can work to protect the inner part of the plate while keeping power when he gets full extension on the outer part of the plate.  It is not ideal, but it will be good enough for him to develop into a low end first division third baseman.  I expect that he may see Baltimore in September or, perhaps, partway through 2014.

No. 4 - LF/CF L.J. Hoes
Ht/Wt - 6'1", 185
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 23y 1m
Draft 3:4 in 2008 Draft
Prospect Grade - B (50)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2008	18	Orioles	GULF	Rk	48	191	4	3	1	10	0	30	22	.308	.416	.390
2009	19	Delmarva	SALL	A	119	465	19	0	2	20	5	23	80	.260	.299	.318
2010	20	3 Teams	3 Lgs	A+-A--AA	108	454	24	3	4	11	9	55	72	.290	.383	.397
2011	21	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A+	136	566	24	1	9	20	9	53	81	.285	.354	.390
2012	22	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AAA-AA	133	586	23	7	5	20	12	65	76	.287	.372	.388

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

L.J. Hoes has had hopes and dreams pinned on him by many after his 2008 stint in the Gulf Coast League.  There he showed an incredibly advanced approach at the plate, good speed, and incredibly hard and consistent contact.  The first thing you hear about Hoes from anyone you talk to is how hard he hits the ball.  It sounds great with excellent exit speed, but the swing plane does not generate the needed power.

The initial hope would be that Hoes would be able to come in from the outfield and learn to play second base well enough in order to make up for the bat if it did not develop.  However, he simply did not have a loose enough lower body to react quickly to balls hit to him at second.  In the outfield, he finds a more natural fit and could even manage an adequate centerfield if needed.  To play left, he needs to maintain a high contact rate and increase his secondary power performance.  Neither of those are a given.

Hoes appeared in two games at the end of last season.  Both he and Xavier Avery could perform well right now as fourth outfielders for the Orioles.  The expectation is that Avery is more versatile with his plus plus speed is a better fit as a late inning replacement.  The B grade, perhaps a bit to high, for Hoes is tied entirely to his ability to develop that power to a level where he can produce a 280/350/380 line with plus defense.  That would be worth about 2.5 fWAR.  It may not be what you would typically expect out of a LF, but it would be useful.

No. 5 - LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
Ht/Wt - 6'2", 175
B/T - L/L
Age at 6/13 - 20y 2m
International Free Agent from Venezuela
Prospect Grade - C+ (45)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2010	17	Orioles 1	DOSL	FRk	3	4	2.33	12	12	65.2	0	28	62	6.7	0.0	3.8	8.5
2011	18	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Rk-A-	1	1	2.22	12	11	48.2	1	18	50	6.3	0.2	3.3	9.2
2012	19	Delmarva	SALL	A	5	7	3.70	22	22	107.0	4	30	73	8.7	0.3	2.5	6.1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

When Andy MacPhail came to the Orioles, the state of international scouting concerned him.  He was not one to spend big on 16 year foreign talent, but he thought it was essential to get scouts on the ground to effectively scoop up tertiary talent with occasional movement on second tier free agents.  Rodriguez was one of those second tier signings (at 175k, he was signed for more than any reported Orioles signing during this IFA season which began July 1, 2012).

Rodriguez was one of the younger players in A ball.  He managed to keep up against the competition with an ERA that was 15% better than the league average.  In seasons past, we were excited about Rodriguez, but were concerned that this high 80s fastball and slow slider pitchability southpaw simply would not be able to generate swing and misses out of the zone as he faced more advanced hitters.  Delmarva saw him increase his velocity into the low 90s on his fastball and low 80s on the slider.  His changeup was also mentioned as having greatly improved, but inconsistent.

So the ranking, for me at least, comes to this: the scouts who their eyes on the player like him more than my familiarity with the history of the player and his peripheral statistics.  You can argue this is a weak place for me to stand, but my concerns are tied to a few things:

• Rodriguez' HR rate is too low for a pitcher who is not a ground ball pitcher.  He gave up 4 homeruns last year.  I think he should have given up 9.  SIERA takes these things more into consideration and pegs him around 5% under league average, which is good for his age.
• My general belief that low minors batters are more susceptible to excellent command lefties.  With this issue, I think contact rates and ISO will increase with more advanced hitters.
• My final concern is that his strikeout rate is 20% below average for the league and, again, he is not a ground ball pitcher.

With those things in mind, Rodriguez will really have to prove to me that he can succeed at each level.

ESPN3: College Baseball to watch Feb 22-24th

Well, the college baseball season is upon us, which means that each weekend ESPN3 will be airing a schedule of games every weekend that I plan on highlighting each week. I'll try to give you a rundown of games to watch and the players to keep an eye on in those games as it pertains to the draft.

Up this week on the schedule are: (all times EST)

Fri, Feb 22	4 p.m.	St. John’s at No. 21 Georgia Tech						ESPN3
Sat, Feb 23	2 p.m.	South Florida at No. 9 Florida State
	2 p.m.	St. John’s at No. 21 Georgia Tech
Sun, Feb 24	1 p.m.	South Florida at No. 9 Florida State

Players to keep an eye on:
Georgia Tech
SP - Buck Farmer 
1B/OF - Daniel Palka (Whose grandfather, Eugene Palka, played 2 years in the Orioles org.)
OF - Brandon Thomas

Florida State
LHP - Brandon Liebrandt (Son of former ML Charlie Liebrandt)
2B/SS - Justin Gonzalez

2013 World Baseball Classic: USA

This is the second in a series to introduce everyone to teams participating in 2013's World Baseball Classic.  As this series progress, you will find all of the articles under this key world: 2013 World Baseball Classic.  Previously, we reviewed Previously, we reviewed Australia, Canada, Cuba, and Puerto Rico.

The body of the United States article was written by Jeremy Strain.

United States
IBAF Ranking (out of 74)	2nd
2013 Pool	Mexico
	Italy
	Canada
2013 Players of Note	R.A. Dickey, SP
	Ryan Vogelsong, SP
	Joe Mauer, C
	Adam Jones, OF
	Giancarlo Stanton, OF
2009 Record	4 - 4, 4th
2009 All WBC	Jimmy Rollins, SS
2006 Record	3 - 3, 2nd Round
2006 All WBC	Derek Jeter, SS
	Ken Griffey, Jr.

Baseball has often been referred to as “America’s Pastime” for generations, which makes sense because ball and bats games have had an impact in many communities.  As far back as 1791, there were local ordinances in the Northeast banning the game within 80 yards of the town meeting house was made.  Much of the early history of baseball was discussed on Camden Depot's book club over a year ago. Briefly, the game bounced around in various forms over the next hundred years.  The first team to play under modern rules were the New York Knickerbockers, which was a social club founded in 1845. By 1857, the New York area had grown to 16 clubs and founded an organization, the National Association of Base Ball Players to govern the sport and introduce a championship. With help from the Civil War, players all over the country were soon adopting these rules and ways as they were exposed to players from various states, who would then take them back to their home states and spread the game.

The next 50 years saw the end of open ball parks and the rise of the home run.  The American and National Leagues established themselves as the premier leagues with hundreds of minor teams in dozens of leagues at any one time playing across the country.  This includes Negro Leagues, whose members were barred from joining the American or National Leagues or any league aspiring as a feeder league or competitor.

The great innovator, Branch Rickey, truly brought baseball into the modern era.  He led the slow charge to develop better ways to measure talent in players.  He championed the use of on base percentage and isolated power.  He hired a statistician to be part of his front office.  He saw the benefit in an organization owning minor league teams to raise their own talent.  Rickey also saw utility in harmonizing the teaching in his system in what some fans around Baltimore call the Oriole Way.  Rickey also was the first to put money into developing a permanent Spring Training facility.  More importantly, he saved baseball from itself by forcing through desegregation by giving Jackie Robinson the opportunity to show that he belonged in Major League Baseball.  

Over the years, the American professional game has remained the strongest in the world.  Major League teams have aggressively set up academies in other countries to spread the game in hopes of finding elite players.  As of 2012, 71.6% of MLB rosters were American-born, while 52% of all minor league players were born in the US. While this number moves around a bit year to year, it has stayed within 3% for the past 4 years.

MLB is a game dominated by the US, however international competition has been more uneven with professional players preferring not to play for the national teams.  In Olympic play, minor league talent led the US to a gold in 2000 and a bronze in 2008.  The International Olympic Committee decided after China to drop the game altogether from Olympic play.

For the WBC, the United States saw participation from many major stars from the Major Leagues.  They did not place.  In 2009 a younger group of largely less accomplished finished 4^th. USA also won a silver medal in the Pan American games in 2011 with a team full of minor league talent. The 2013 team features an interesting mix of youth and veteran leadership with the strength of the team in a mashing OF of Adam Jones, Ryan Braun and Giancarlo Stanton. Other standouts such as David Wright, Mark Teixeira, and Joe Mauer join a pitching staff with some great relievers such as Craig Kimbrel, Luke Gregerson, and Chris Perez, but the weakness of the team for this season has to be the starting pitching. R.A. Dickey leads the staff, but young potential star Kris Medlen dropped out of the WBC leaving only Derek Holland as the other sound starter. Rumors have swirled this past week that Justin Verlander may consider playing for the USA which would be a HUGE gain to this squad’s chances this year.

USA will always continue to dominate the population of the sport housed within it’s borders, but part of that success has been the draw of foreign born players that would like to compete in the best league in the world. Players from various countries have been defecting or placing themselves for sale in order to get to the ML and compete against the best. With little league teams transitioning to travel teams, to high school teams and on to college before getting to the minor league systems, there is a pipeline of US talent constantly flowing, with only the cream of the crop ever making it to the Major Leagues. Players are being groomed for ML play from the first time they can hit off of a tee in the US, and while the sport has taken a hit in popularity over the years, it still produces thousands of ML hopefuls every year. With young talent showing an interest in representing the team, such as Stanton, Medlen, Jones, Braun, Kimbrel etc. it bodes well for other young talented players wanting to represent the country and keep the USA in contention each competition. Players such as Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Mike Moustakas and others lend a bright future to team USA potential, if they are willing to play.