I think the Orioles uniform suits him pretty well, actually.
You can follow Hunter on Twitter here!
Showing posts with label 2013 Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013 Draft. Show all posts
10 June 2013
Sunday, er, Monday Comics: Welcome, Hunter Harvey!
My main job at Aerys Sports is to cover the MLB Draft every year. Between the draft and my thyroid flaring up this weekend, I didn't get a chance to upload this little doodle of the Orioles' top draft pick this year, RHP Hunter Harvey.
I think the Orioles uniform suits him pretty well, actually.
You can follow Hunter on Twitter here!
I think the Orioles uniform suits him pretty well, actually.
You can follow Hunter on Twitter here!
08 June 2013
Review of the Orioles’ Second Day of the Draft
In yesterday’s article,
I wrote some scouty things about the team’s first three selections and
then spoke more about the process of those selections. Maybe a better
way to put it, is that I mentioned the overriding theme. For the first
two picks, I had something similar in mind by choosing Ervin over Hart
(taking a higher probability of low level stardom over a lower
probability of mid-level stardom…being incredibly simplistic there) in
order to take advantage of what I thought were a number of abundant arms
available in the competitive balance portion of the draft that were, in
my mind, equal to the Harvey pick. It is a gripe, but one that is
pretty minimal. You have your scouts and scouting director for a
reason, so trust in them. To be clear, I think they went against the
supply side and still wound up with solid selections.
Chance Sisco was taken in the second round. I think that was a little too aggressive considering the other talent that was available. I do not know much about Sisco, but I have general misgivings about placing high picks on high school catchers. I think they are difficult to project. They certainly are difficult for me. I would have stayed with what I saw was a bevy of high ceiling arms and go in that direction.
For day two, I think more emphasis needs to be made on the theme as it is developing. Much was made of the Tigers’ going six straight on pitchers, which was a little overkill. However, it played to the strengths of this relatively weak draft. Arms, to some degree, were there. The Orioles took three pitchers, a couple corner infielders, and three additional catchers. I’m not exactly saying the team went overboard with catching, but I don’t think it was a strength of the draft class as the draft wore on (the team passed on the clear top three catchers in the draft) and I don’t think the explanation that the Orioles organizational catching being atrocious is a proper explanation.
To drill down into this, I will make note of what information I have been able to gather on the four catchers the team chose:
Based on that information, I see two players who probably will have MLB defensive catcher skills: Sisco and Wynns. Both have hurdles with the lumber. I also see Heim and Murphy as players who will catch as long as possible before having to take up a position elsehwere. I see Murphy leaving the catching ranks first if I am underestimating his hitting. His arm will play well out in the field.
I do not see this as meaningfully improving the quality of catching in the minors. Simply picking up a number of guys with a C next to their name does not mean that the organization is flush with useful catchers. You can also fill catching slots by signing more experienced catch and throw guys to fill in slots. Organizational filler is pretty much what you tend to get past the top rounds, so my preference would be to try to find guys with raw, loud tools. I think you can argue that Jonah Heim has some loud tools for a catcher and you can hope to turn him into a professional behind the plate.
So maybe I am really only arguing against the idea of catchers being drafted to solve the gaping hole in the system as being false, but also saying that the Murphy and Wynn picks are fine. The team is likely going to be able to save money on those slots and apply it elsewhere (thinking Tarpley).
This boils down my complaint, a meager one, to being that I think there were high ceiling arms available in the third through fifth rounds that should have been targeted. Tarpley was a good addition (I think the makeup concerns are overblown…as they tend to be), but a second high potential arm should have been selected. For me, it was RHP Bobby Wahl who eventually went to the Athletics. Admittedly, I saw nothing but a few videos of him this year, but I loved what I saw last year. Last year, he looked like a first rounder to me and I would have selected him a few rounds earlier than he went. However, it was not just Wahl. Other guys were available. In the grand scheme of things, a pitcher with a 2% chance of breaking out versus a catcher with a 1% chance of being useful is going to be a difficult difference to discern.
I hold with conviction that my strategy would have been superior to the apparent strategy the Orioles used, but that the difference between those strategies vary so slightly in likely outcomes that those differences are not discernible in the final tally. Be happy, it was a draft with little to fault if anything.
Chance Sisco was taken in the second round. I think that was a little too aggressive considering the other talent that was available. I do not know much about Sisco, but I have general misgivings about placing high picks on high school catchers. I think they are difficult to project. They certainly are difficult for me. I would have stayed with what I saw was a bevy of high ceiling arms and go in that direction.
For day two, I think more emphasis needs to be made on the theme as it is developing. Much was made of the Tigers’ going six straight on pitchers, which was a little overkill. However, it played to the strengths of this relatively weak draft. Arms, to some degree, were there. The Orioles took three pitchers, a couple corner infielders, and three additional catchers. I’m not exactly saying the team went overboard with catching, but I don’t think it was a strength of the draft class as the draft wore on (the team passed on the clear top three catchers in the draft) and I don’t think the explanation that the Orioles organizational catching being atrocious is a proper explanation.
To drill down into this, I will make note of what information I have been able to gather on the four catchers the team chose:
Chance Sisco – HS – Profiles as a definite catcher with a fringe bat
Jonah Heim – HS – Raw, decent chance to remain catcher, good potential for bat if mechanics addressed
Alex Murphy – HS – Raw, better defensive tools than Heim, bat is limited
Austin Wynns – 4Y – Solid tools behind the plate, but no bat to mention
Based on that information, I see two players who probably will have MLB defensive catcher skills: Sisco and Wynns. Both have hurdles with the lumber. I also see Heim and Murphy as players who will catch as long as possible before having to take up a position elsehwere. I see Murphy leaving the catching ranks first if I am underestimating his hitting. His arm will play well out in the field.
I do not see this as meaningfully improving the quality of catching in the minors. Simply picking up a number of guys with a C next to their name does not mean that the organization is flush with useful catchers. You can also fill catching slots by signing more experienced catch and throw guys to fill in slots. Organizational filler is pretty much what you tend to get past the top rounds, so my preference would be to try to find guys with raw, loud tools. I think you can argue that Jonah Heim has some loud tools for a catcher and you can hope to turn him into a professional behind the plate.
So maybe I am really only arguing against the idea of catchers being drafted to solve the gaping hole in the system as being false, but also saying that the Murphy and Wynn picks are fine. The team is likely going to be able to save money on those slots and apply it elsewhere (thinking Tarpley).
This boils down my complaint, a meager one, to being that I think there were high ceiling arms available in the third through fifth rounds that should have been targeted. Tarpley was a good addition (I think the makeup concerns are overblown…as they tend to be), but a second high potential arm should have been selected. For me, it was RHP Bobby Wahl who eventually went to the Athletics. Admittedly, I saw nothing but a few videos of him this year, but I loved what I saw last year. Last year, he looked like a first rounder to me and I would have selected him a few rounds earlier than he went. However, it was not just Wahl. Other guys were available. In the grand scheme of things, a pitcher with a 2% chance of breaking out versus a catcher with a 1% chance of being useful is going to be a difficult difference to discern.
I hold with conviction that my strategy would have been superior to the apparent strategy the Orioles used, but that the difference between those strategies vary so slightly in likely outcomes that those differences are not discernible in the final tally. Be happy, it was a draft with little to fault if anything.
07 June 2013
Review of the Orioles First Day of the Draft
After looking at a few comments on the message board, I figured it
might be a good time to hit the reset button and think about these
selections in a somewhat constructive manner. At least, constructive
within my own mind. Perhaps the way I think about these amateurs could
help spur some conversation.
1:22 (22)
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (Catawba, NC)
The first thing people mention about Hunter is his father, Bryan Harvey. The second thing they mention is Hunter’s oft-stated preference to never have to open a college textbook. The third thing they mention is that Hunter is a solid pitching prospect. His pitches have been largely inconsistent, which is not surprising for a high school pitcher. However, they tend to grade out well with him projected to have a fringe plus fastball, a plus curve, and an average change. Hunter also has some room left on his frame to add another 20-30 lbs, which could help add another couple miles per hour and that could greatly improve his fastball and change. His ceiling is a mid-rotation arm, but he has shown plus plus velocity in short stints that may play up as a reliever. This could give the team options if he struggles as a starter.
Why do I like the pick?
Although he went earlier to the Dodgers, I had some concern about the team picking up a “safe” college starting pitcher like Chris Anderson. That profile is of a guy who would sit at the back end of a rotation and chew up innings. Anderson is not a sure thing to be that, but it basically is his ceiling and a likely one to hit (as prospects go). My preference when we are talking about hit draft picks is that you need to select for stardom. As we look around in free agency, we see innings chewers available on the market. Guys like Joe Saunders or Jeremy Guthrie are there every year. They can be acquired and be somewhat overpaid. Star players rarely hit the market anymore. To acquire a star, you typically have to pay a king’s ransom in prospects and then give the player a contract close to what the free market would suggest. The scarcity of those star players means, to me, that you have to go gonzo.
Harvey qualifies as a gonzo selection. If he can use his frame to add weight and, therefore, some velocity to his fastball then he may wind up becoming an upper mid-rotation arm. If that fails, his fastball and curve should play well as a late inning arm. So what we have is a solid upside with a rather safe floor. This does not mean you can write him a ticket for the big leagues, but that the risk is diversified and he stands to be a name we will be getting used to in Baltimore in some fashion.
Why would I have selected someone else?
There are two players I would have chosen instead of Harvey depending on the perspective. If we choose to look at this from a pitching perspective, I would have taken Rob Kaminsky (LHP, St. Joseph HS, Montvale NJ). There are two big strikes against him: velocity around 90 mph and has no room in his frame for growth. The two big things in his favor are that he is a lefty and he has the best curveball in the draft. Additionally, he probably uses his curveball better than anyone else in the draft and it works well against both sides of the plate. As a polished lefty with a big curve, he would likely move quickly through the minors. However, it is difficult for me to look at the pluses and minuses with the conclusion that Kaminsky is significantly better of a selection than Harvey.
My inclination would have been to lean towards a college bat. I like Phillip Ervin (OF, Samford). Another little guy at 5’10 and 200 lbs, but he flat out performs well. He is not quite the wonder that I thought Jackie Bradley Jr. was a few years back, but I look at him similarly. In terms of overall value, I thought Bradley was worthy of the 5th pick in the draft. I think Ervin was worth the 10th. His plate coverage, solid eye, and good power places him somewhere in center or right field with a high floor. I think his ceiling is that of a 3-4 WAR player out there.
1s:4 (37)
Josh Hart, OF, Parkview HS (Lilburn, GA)
Hart is, more or less, the high school version of the Ervin selection. He is a little further away from being fully baked, so you can forgive some of his flaws that may turn him into more of a tweener like Ervin. You can basically cut and paste my thoughts on Ervin here with the caveat that there may be some unlocked potential with Hart.
Why do I like the selection?
Hart plays into the potential all star model that I think you need to have at the top of the draft. You need to find these potentially very good players here. Hart should be able to play center well or a corner slot very well. His bat can develop into something that works well for left or center and you can envision him becoming a somewhat traditional lead off hitter.
Why would I have chosen someone else?
The way I saw the draft unfolding was that by this point it would be thick with arms. I think that play out to be the case. It was one of the reasons why I leaned heavily on a college bat with that first pick. When we arrived at this one, we had several arms that I thought were equivalent of Harvey’s, such as Devin Williams (RHP, Hazelwood West HS MO), Bobby Wahl (RHP, Ole Miss), and Hunter Green (LHP, Warren East HS, KY). I think Josh Hart probably had the best available profile of the remaining outfielders, but that he pales in comparison to Ervin while those pitchers all look just as promising to me.
2:22 (61)
Chance Sisco, C, Santiago HS (Corona, CA)
What do I know about Sisco? Not much. I have difficulty projecting high school catchers. Receiving skills do not seem exactly intuitive for me from an analytical standpoint. That said, I am told he is athletic, but raw behind the plate with a bat that could wind up being above average. He is considered to be a very slow climber up the ladder due to the development he will need from both his glove and bat.
Why do I like the pick?
The organization simply lacks catchers the profile as major league starters. It makes sense that some planning needs to be made to beef up that position within the franchise because Wieters is unlikely to be the team’s catcher six years from now. Guys like Sisco, but maybe not Sisco, need to be drafted and signed to provide greater depth. I have no issues with the selection. Some people may point to him being in the 100s according to Baseball America’s rankings, but that is not exactly a great way to use that tool. There is a great deal of variability on that table to the point that it is common for many mid-100 players to be ranked above guys in the 50s for several teams. In other words, if you dislike this pick then focus on the player and not on some list.
Why would I have chosen someone else?
At this point in the draft, I have selected Ervin and an upside pitcher. I think my strategy was better tailored for the strengths of this draft, but the difference between the two strategies is not that great. I only think that Ervin is a far better prospect than Hart. At this point, my focus would remain on pitchers with Jake Brentz (LHP, Parkway South HS, Manchester MO), Bobby Wahl (RHP, Ole Miss), and A.J. Puk (LHP, Washington HS, Cedar Rapids, IA) available. Of course, I find it surprising that a couple of these guys are available. I have Brentz and Wahl pretty high on my board, so I am wondering if there are bonus requests that I am unaware of. Brentz might be set on college and Wahl might be convinced a healthy junior year will reward him with a couple million more. That said, a signable high upside arm here is what I would focus on instead of generating positional depth where there are weaknesses in the organization. In other words, I think there are Siscos available later on.
Moving Forward
The Orioles have set themselves up with three high schoolers who should be easy signings. None appear to be reaches, although that may be the case with Sisco. If Sisco is a pre-draft deal kind of guy, then the team may be looking for talent that drifts today. Although, saving money at a second round slot does not really give you a lot of extra cash to spend later. For today, I would look at Wahl, of course, but also power bats like Rowdy Tellez (1B, Elk Grove HS, Elk Grove, CA), Trey Michalczewski (3B, Jenks HS, Jenks OK), and Conrad Gregor (1B, Vanderbilt). My focus at this point would have been to look at middle infielders and catchers today along with a potential bat like Gregor.
Anyway, on with the festivities of day 2.
1:22 (22)
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (Catawba, NC)
The first thing people mention about Hunter is his father, Bryan Harvey. The second thing they mention is Hunter’s oft-stated preference to never have to open a college textbook. The third thing they mention is that Hunter is a solid pitching prospect. His pitches have been largely inconsistent, which is not surprising for a high school pitcher. However, they tend to grade out well with him projected to have a fringe plus fastball, a plus curve, and an average change. Hunter also has some room left on his frame to add another 20-30 lbs, which could help add another couple miles per hour and that could greatly improve his fastball and change. His ceiling is a mid-rotation arm, but he has shown plus plus velocity in short stints that may play up as a reliever. This could give the team options if he struggles as a starter.
Why do I like the pick?
Although he went earlier to the Dodgers, I had some concern about the team picking up a “safe” college starting pitcher like Chris Anderson. That profile is of a guy who would sit at the back end of a rotation and chew up innings. Anderson is not a sure thing to be that, but it basically is his ceiling and a likely one to hit (as prospects go). My preference when we are talking about hit draft picks is that you need to select for stardom. As we look around in free agency, we see innings chewers available on the market. Guys like Joe Saunders or Jeremy Guthrie are there every year. They can be acquired and be somewhat overpaid. Star players rarely hit the market anymore. To acquire a star, you typically have to pay a king’s ransom in prospects and then give the player a contract close to what the free market would suggest. The scarcity of those star players means, to me, that you have to go gonzo.
Harvey qualifies as a gonzo selection. If he can use his frame to add weight and, therefore, some velocity to his fastball then he may wind up becoming an upper mid-rotation arm. If that fails, his fastball and curve should play well as a late inning arm. So what we have is a solid upside with a rather safe floor. This does not mean you can write him a ticket for the big leagues, but that the risk is diversified and he stands to be a name we will be getting used to in Baltimore in some fashion.
Why would I have selected someone else?
There are two players I would have chosen instead of Harvey depending on the perspective. If we choose to look at this from a pitching perspective, I would have taken Rob Kaminsky (LHP, St. Joseph HS, Montvale NJ). There are two big strikes against him: velocity around 90 mph and has no room in his frame for growth. The two big things in his favor are that he is a lefty and he has the best curveball in the draft. Additionally, he probably uses his curveball better than anyone else in the draft and it works well against both sides of the plate. As a polished lefty with a big curve, he would likely move quickly through the minors. However, it is difficult for me to look at the pluses and minuses with the conclusion that Kaminsky is significantly better of a selection than Harvey.
My inclination would have been to lean towards a college bat. I like Phillip Ervin (OF, Samford). Another little guy at 5’10 and 200 lbs, but he flat out performs well. He is not quite the wonder that I thought Jackie Bradley Jr. was a few years back, but I look at him similarly. In terms of overall value, I thought Bradley was worthy of the 5th pick in the draft. I think Ervin was worth the 10th. His plate coverage, solid eye, and good power places him somewhere in center or right field with a high floor. I think his ceiling is that of a 3-4 WAR player out there.
1s:4 (37)
Josh Hart, OF, Parkview HS (Lilburn, GA)
Hart is, more or less, the high school version of the Ervin selection. He is a little further away from being fully baked, so you can forgive some of his flaws that may turn him into more of a tweener like Ervin. You can basically cut and paste my thoughts on Ervin here with the caveat that there may be some unlocked potential with Hart.
Why do I like the selection?
Hart plays into the potential all star model that I think you need to have at the top of the draft. You need to find these potentially very good players here. Hart should be able to play center well or a corner slot very well. His bat can develop into something that works well for left or center and you can envision him becoming a somewhat traditional lead off hitter.
Why would I have chosen someone else?
The way I saw the draft unfolding was that by this point it would be thick with arms. I think that play out to be the case. It was one of the reasons why I leaned heavily on a college bat with that first pick. When we arrived at this one, we had several arms that I thought were equivalent of Harvey’s, such as Devin Williams (RHP, Hazelwood West HS MO), Bobby Wahl (RHP, Ole Miss), and Hunter Green (LHP, Warren East HS, KY). I think Josh Hart probably had the best available profile of the remaining outfielders, but that he pales in comparison to Ervin while those pitchers all look just as promising to me.
2:22 (61)
Chance Sisco, C, Santiago HS (Corona, CA)
What do I know about Sisco? Not much. I have difficulty projecting high school catchers. Receiving skills do not seem exactly intuitive for me from an analytical standpoint. That said, I am told he is athletic, but raw behind the plate with a bat that could wind up being above average. He is considered to be a very slow climber up the ladder due to the development he will need from both his glove and bat.
Why do I like the pick?
The organization simply lacks catchers the profile as major league starters. It makes sense that some planning needs to be made to beef up that position within the franchise because Wieters is unlikely to be the team’s catcher six years from now. Guys like Sisco, but maybe not Sisco, need to be drafted and signed to provide greater depth. I have no issues with the selection. Some people may point to him being in the 100s according to Baseball America’s rankings, but that is not exactly a great way to use that tool. There is a great deal of variability on that table to the point that it is common for many mid-100 players to be ranked above guys in the 50s for several teams. In other words, if you dislike this pick then focus on the player and not on some list.
Why would I have chosen someone else?
At this point in the draft, I have selected Ervin and an upside pitcher. I think my strategy was better tailored for the strengths of this draft, but the difference between the two strategies is not that great. I only think that Ervin is a far better prospect than Hart. At this point, my focus would remain on pitchers with Jake Brentz (LHP, Parkway South HS, Manchester MO), Bobby Wahl (RHP, Ole Miss), and A.J. Puk (LHP, Washington HS, Cedar Rapids, IA) available. Of course, I find it surprising that a couple of these guys are available. I have Brentz and Wahl pretty high on my board, so I am wondering if there are bonus requests that I am unaware of. Brentz might be set on college and Wahl might be convinced a healthy junior year will reward him with a couple million more. That said, a signable high upside arm here is what I would focus on instead of generating positional depth where there are weaknesses in the organization. In other words, I think there are Siscos available later on.
Moving Forward
The Orioles have set themselves up with three high schoolers who should be easy signings. None appear to be reaches, although that may be the case with Sisco. If Sisco is a pre-draft deal kind of guy, then the team may be looking for talent that drifts today. Although, saving money at a second round slot does not really give you a lot of extra cash to spend later. For today, I would look at Wahl, of course, but also power bats like Rowdy Tellez (1B, Elk Grove HS, Elk Grove, CA), Trey Michalczewski (3B, Jenks HS, Jenks OK), and Conrad Gregor (1B, Vanderbilt). My focus at this point would have been to look at middle infielders and catchers today along with a potential bat like Gregor.
Anyway, on with the festivities of day 2.
06 June 2013
Waiting for the draft...
Here are some items for the draft regarding the Orioles.
Mocks!
Jim Callis: Chris Anderson, RHP
Patrick Ebert: Nick Ciuffo, C
Keith Law: Premium...just pay the man and find out.
Jonathan Mayo: Chris Anderson, RHP
Kiley McDaniel: Eric Jagielo, 3B
First off, the predominant projection is Chris Anderson. In a nutshell, not a very inspired selection. He does not have much projection, has shaky secondary options, and is often handed the ceiling of backend innings eater.
Nick Ciuffo is the Goldilocks catcher of the first round. He profiles as average with the bat and average with the glove.
The Eric Jagielo pick is made by the guy who worked in the previous Orioles' front office. Whether or not this selection was informed by his connections there...I don't know. Jagielo is a college bat with power and a decent likelihood to remain at third. I wrote about him here.
If you are following along tonight, feel free to pepper me with questions on this post. Any major analysis of the Orioles will be handled over at Baltimore Sports and Life. I will provide links if such things are written.
Update (Shadow Draft):
1 - Phillip Ervin, CF
1s - Devin Williams, RHP
2 - Bobby Wahl, RHP
3 - Jake Brentz, LHP
3s - Conrad Gregor - 1B
4 - Cory Thompson, SS
5 - Brian Naverreto, C
6 - James Ramsay, OF
7 - Drew Dosch, 3B
8 - Billy Waltrip, LHP
9 - JT Riddle, 2B
10 - Spencer Navin, C
Mocks!
Jim Callis: Chris Anderson, RHP
Patrick Ebert: Nick Ciuffo, C
Keith Law: Premium...just pay the man and find out.
Jonathan Mayo: Chris Anderson, RHP
Kiley McDaniel: Eric Jagielo, 3B
First off, the predominant projection is Chris Anderson. In a nutshell, not a very inspired selection. He does not have much projection, has shaky secondary options, and is often handed the ceiling of backend innings eater.
Nick Ciuffo is the Goldilocks catcher of the first round. He profiles as average with the bat and average with the glove.
The Eric Jagielo pick is made by the guy who worked in the previous Orioles' front office. Whether or not this selection was informed by his connections there...I don't know. Jagielo is a college bat with power and a decent likelihood to remain at third. I wrote about him here.
If you are following along tonight, feel free to pepper me with questions on this post. Any major analysis of the Orioles will be handled over at Baltimore Sports and Life. I will provide links if such things are written.
Update (Shadow Draft):
1 - Phillip Ervin, CF
1s - Devin Williams, RHP
2 - Bobby Wahl, RHP
3 - Jake Brentz, LHP
3s - Conrad Gregor - 1B
4 - Cory Thompson, SS
5 - Brian Naverreto, C
6 - James Ramsay, OF
7 - Drew Dosch, 3B
8 - Billy Waltrip, LHP
9 - JT Riddle, 2B
10 - Spencer Navin, C
2013 Draft Coverage at the Depot
This year has been a pretty light year for the Depot on discussion of the 2013 Draft. Nick Faleris became a major force with Baseball Prospectus. Nick has put up videos of a lot of the prospects here at BP Unfiltered (no subscription required). However, a subscription gets you access to a lot more interesting material here. Trust me, it is worth it.
Me, on the other hand, my Orioles writing is now over at Baltimore Sports and Life. I have written one piece over there about first round college bats. I will also be providing some analysis of the actual Oriole selections. I was hoping to get out some pieces on the statistical metrics that I sometimes use to inform me of elite college hitters, but like a lot of things...it simply did not get done. Who knew getting a promotion, buying a house, and getting ready for a first child would be such a heavy time commitment?
Here, I will be continuing the grand tradition of our shadow draft. The exercise where we draft in real time along with the Orioles and make our own selection as we see fit and within the constraints of budget.
Me, on the other hand, my Orioles writing is now over at Baltimore Sports and Life. I have written one piece over there about first round college bats. I will also be providing some analysis of the actual Oriole selections. I was hoping to get out some pieces on the statistical metrics that I sometimes use to inform me of elite college hitters, but like a lot of things...it simply did not get done. Who knew getting a promotion, buying a house, and getting ready for a first child would be such a heavy time commitment?
Here, I will be continuing the grand tradition of our shadow draft. The exercise where we draft in real time along with the Orioles and make our own selection as we see fit and within the constraints of budget.
03 June 2013
The Orioles’ First Round Pick and College Bats
Not as much attention has been paid to the Orioles’ draft this year.
Part of that is likely a consequence of the team putting a product out
on the field that can give people hope for back-to-back post seasons.
Another part of it is, due to the team’s great success last year, that
they have the 22nd pick in the draft instead of one in the top five.
Simply put, when you are in the top five, you are looking at potentially
elite prospects. Anyone can watch those players and see how amazing
they look. When you get to the 22nd pick, it becomes more difficult for
the lay person to discern differences between current and potential
talent levels.
When I look at a draft class, I tend to keep to one approach. Is there a justifiable college position players? If not, find a high ceiling. At the top end of the draft, you will often come into a scenario where the best player available clearly is not a college position player. However, deeper down, it becomes more muddled and I become more comfortable going with college talent. So how do I identify the college talent? I ask my contacts who scout and then look at the grab bag, apply statistics to my level of comfort, and rank them.
2013 College Bats (as ranked by Jon Shepherd)
Numbers are park and conference adjusted. They can be found on College Splits.
When I look at a draft class, I tend to keep to one approach. Is there a justifiable college position players? If not, find a high ceiling. At the top end of the draft, you will often come into a scenario where the best player available clearly is not a college position player. However, deeper down, it becomes more muddled and I become more comfortable going with college talent. So how do I identify the college talent? I ask my contacts who scout and then look at the grab bag, apply statistics to my level of comfort, and rank them.
2013 College Bats (as ranked by Jon Shepherd)
Numbers are park and conference adjusted. They can be found on College Splits.
1. Colin Moran, 3B (362/493/596; 19.0% BB, 2.75 BB/K, .234 ISO)
Top five pick.
Moran has been one of the statistical diamonds during his college years. He always performs well on the metrics I look at (i.e., walk rate, walk to strikeout ratio, batting average, and isolated power). He has shown a smooth and advanced approach at the plate with solid defense at third. I think he is the safest pick in the draft and is borderline elite. Why do I think he falls short of elite? His power potential has not shown up, yet. I think it will, but it will take time.
2. Kris Bryant, 3B (340/503/860; 22.4% BB, 1.55 K/BB, .520 ISO)
Top five pick.
Bryant is lauded as a top 3 pick. Most evaluators appear to rank him above Moran. This past season, he has shown his power tool and has silenced critics with respect to him being more than just a first baseman (which would hurt because it would place a great deal of pressure on his bat having to play very high…think of Justin Smoak). Nick Faleris actually articulated the concern over Bryant in this premium Baseball Prospectus article (buy a subscription, it is well worth it and pretty cheap). To be brief and to leave much to that article, there are concerns whether the power will continue to show as he progresses up the ranks.
3. D.J. Peterson, 3B (344/472/684; 18.0% BB, 1.44 BB/K, .340 ISO)
Top ten pick.
College position players are pretty heavy with respect to third base this year. However, we are talking about college third basemen, which do not always remain at the hot corner as they mature and more is expected of their defense. Peterson is a bat first guy and one that moves well enough to see himself in left field as a pro. The bat looks special, he has a good approach, and I think he should be a pretty safe selection.
4. Phillip Ervin, OF (337/459/597; 16.6% BB, 1.56 BB/K, .260 ISO)
Selection 20-30.
Ervin is a tweener outfielder. Not quite a center fielder and not quite a left fielder. He is athletic though and shows a solid approach to the plate according to the statistics I am looking at. However, my ranking of him here seems to contrast with the trade journals. I see him as a 10-15 pick, which shows a bit of helium from me (but, honestly, is not that much different from him going 10-15 picks later). Ervin has had some knee and ankle injuries over the years, but I doubt they have any long term impact on his play.
5a. Hunter Renfroe, OF (352/450/652; 13.9% BB, 0.92 BB/K, .300 ISO)
Selection 10-20.
Renfroe might be benefiting slightly from my chances of seeing him play in the summer with Bethesda. He is the only player on this list that I have had the opportunity to see often in person. Renfroe was clearly the best player on the field whenever I saw him and would fit well in right field. At the collegiate level, he showed good contact, power, and discipline. My only concern would be that he was a little too easy to strike out to be called a great hitter. Of course, many a great hitter has struck out a decent amount in college only to be quite successful at the MLB level, but it is a red flag.
5b. Eric Jagielo, 3B (378/494/622; 15.2% BB, 1.06 BB/K, .244 ISO)
Selection 10-20.
Jagielo has slightly more positional use being a potential 3B than Renfroe’s RF. He also looks like he has more power potential in his swing. That said the only thing Renfroe really showed above Jagielo was power, but it was all pretty even. The main reason why he resides at 5b instead of 5a is simply due to my familiarity with Renfroe.
7. Hunter Dozier, SS (434/516/816; 13.8% BB, 0.97 BB/K, .382 ISO)
Supplemental Round.
Dozier should be available to the Orioles in the first round. He might be available to them with their supplemental selection (37th overall). Dozier has shown a solid collegiate bat with great contact, discipline, and power. He may be pushed off short and may not have enough speed to handle 2B and perhaps not enough arm for 3B. I think you play out the infield string with him until you are forced to play him in left where his bat should have value.
8. Aaron Judge, OF (364/457/650; 14.5% BB, 0.66 BB/K, .282 ISO)
Selection 20-30.
I see a great distance between Dozier and Judge. The difference for me is how often Judge strikes out. Additionally, at 6’7″, MLB simply does not have a large number of individuals who have been that tall and become successful. Arms are long and take a while to get the bat through the zone. Additionally, the strike zone is a tad bit larger. In the history of baseball only two players 6’7″ have been successful: Frank Howard (37.6 bWAR) and Tony Clark (12.5 bWAR). With other, relatively equal, options available, do you really want to challenge the historical record?
9. Michael Lorenzen, OF/RHP (320/407/515; 8.4% BB, 0.53 BB/K, .195 ISO)
Second Round.
Lorenzen, like Judge, would be a difficult pick to make at 1:22. He has hit well, but not exceptionally so. The key here would be for his bat to develop to make him a useful corner outfielder. However, he has a somewhat safe floor. Like Mychal Givens, Lorenzen has shown the capacity to throw the ball well. He throws in the mid 90s and has a good breaking ball. It would be difficult to take him solely on his potential as a bullpen arm, but it does decrease risk. I think there will be plenty of arms available to select at 1:22 with more promise than Lorenzen.
10. Austin Wilson, OF (297/394/483; 9.9% BB, 0.72 BB/K, .186 ISO)So, to review. I expect the players in bold to be available when the Orioles pick.
Selection 20-30.
Wilson looks like an amazing baseball player. He has not done anything much amazing on the field though. Teams are supposedly tantalized by his potential, but I see not much reason to believe in him. The is an everpresent Stanford refrain when others talk about him (the overblown issue of how Stanford changes batting mechanics and approach), but it is difficult to get a solid list of guys who became something significantly more once leaving campus. I think part of Wilson’s poor production has to be laid as his own doing. As such, I see him as a third rounder.
Colin MoranAs you could expect, my choice would be Ervin. That said, it is pretty easy to argue for college arms or high upside high schoolers here as well.
Kris Bryant
DJ Peterson
Phillip Ervin
Hunter Renfroe
Eric Jagielo
Hunter Dozier
Aaron Judge
Michael Lorenzen
Austin Wilson
29 April 2013
Collegiate Diamonds in the Rough: Review of 2011
As mentioned before, I will occasionally make an appearance here with my non-Orioles related work (my Orioles writing is found at Baltimore Sports and Life). In this instance, it will be about the simple, somewhat arbitrary criteria I created to look at college amateurs in the 2011 and 2012 drafts. This will be a multi-part series with today's article focusing on how well the identified players have performed from the 2011 draft. In future pieces, I will also review the 2012 targets and write a bit about the 2013 draft.
I created a system that could uses collegiate performance to identify players who would be useful in the minors. I scanned over batting lines and employed strength of schedule adjustments of players in the college ranks using College Baseball Splits. The devised system was designed to identify a subset of useful talent, not all useful talent. The criteria:
In 2011, eight players were identified as fitting this criteria at the time of my assessment. Those players were Anthony Rendon, Kolten Wong, Joe Panik, Rob Kral, Matt Duffy, Taylor Dugas, Matt Skole, and Dan Gamache.
Anthony Rendon, 3B
23 years old, R/R
Drafted 1:6 (2011, Nationals)
Selected After: Bubba Starling
Selected Before: Archie Bradley
Baseball America (19th, 2012; 30th, 2013)
MLB.com (27th, 2012; 28th, 2013)
Rendon was not a difficult selection to make for this system as he was Baseball America's number one prospect entering the 2011 draft. He fell to the Nationals at 6 due to injury concerns that have continued to haunt him and left him with only 160 minor league plate appearances and now a handful in the Majors. He looks like a potential star. That said, the criteria worked no better than how evaluators viewed him.
Kolten Wong, 2B
22 years old, L/R
Drafted 1:22 (2011, Cardinals)
Drafted After: Tyler Beede
Drafted Before: Alex Meyer
Baseball America (93rd, 2012; 84th, 2013)
MLB.com (83rd, 2013)
Wong was also not an interesting hit with the criteria as he was also well identified through qualitative measures as a late first round selection. He has been making a good year to year progression through the minors. Wong is showing good plate discipline, defense, and gap power. He will likely appear in the Majors sometime this year or next. He profiles as an above average second baseman. That is certainly better value than what the Jays got as Tyler Beede did not sign. The Nationals taking Alex Meyer has been turned into Denard Span. Meyer's potential as a top of the rotation arm is higher than Wong's ceiling, but Wong's success, I think, is more of a sure thing.
I would also call this a hit, but one that is only slightly more impressive than Rendon.
Joe Panik, 2B
22 years old, L/R
Drafted 1:29 (2011, Giants)
Drafted After: Sean Gilmartin
Drafted Before: Levi Michael
Panik was rated as a late first round to supplemental selection and that is where he went. The knock on him was that he really was not a shortstop and that his bat would become more important with a switch off that position. Two years later, he is now a second baseman in AA ball. He has shown a strong contact rate, good plate discipline, and an inkling of power. He too profiles as an average 2B at this point. Levi Michael, the SS taken behind Panik, was expected to have a better shot at sticking, but has not begun his move over to second as well. He is currently repeating HiA. At this point, Panik looks like the better selection.
I would call this a hit as well and one that is beginning to look more impressive with the major split in opinion on him when he was drafted.
Matt Skole, 1B/3B
23 years old, L/R
Drafted 5:6 (2011, Nationals)
Drafted After: Patrick Leonard
Drafted Before: Will Roberts
What we are seeing again and again is this: players who excel in competitive college environments with respect to contact, discipline, and power tend to also perform well in the low minors. Baseball America may not have Skole as a top 100 prospect, but they called him the 4th best prospect in the Nationals' system. He looks to be an average 1B or better if he can actually stick at third.
This could be contrived as a hit.
Dan Gamache, 2B
22 years old, L/R
Drafted 6:1 (2011, Pirates)
Drafted After: Mitch Walding
Drafted Before: James Zamarripa
Gamache played in the Auburn band box, which was a concern in that many thought it was inflating his numbers and encouraging an approach that would not work as a professional. In 2012, he showed in low A ball that he had a sufficient bat with decent contact rates, plate discipline, and doubles power. He is a long shot at being a MLB quality 2B. He is more of an organizational type.
This selection seems about average as sixth round picks go.
Rob Kral, C/DH
24 years old, L/R
Drafted 10:22 (2011, Padres)
Drafted After: Cody Koback
Drafted Before: Joe Maloney
Kral has not been a wonder behind the plate, which was expected. However, he has been solid at the plate in the low minors. At 24, he is a bit old to be in HiA, but a slash of 333/429/1075 in HiA is pretty solid for a 10th round pick. If things break right for him (the hill is pretty steep to climb), he may be able to find himself in the Majors in 2015. You really cannot be too upset over finding a guy who has decent power, good plate discipline, and good contact. The Rangers' Joe Maloney is a decent person to compare Kral to as he too is a catcher who likely will not be a catcher. Similar to Kral, Maloney is also doing his best at killing the ball. This takes the shine off of Kral a little bit, but both guys would be solid gets for a team in the tenth.
The jury is still out on this selection.
Matt Duffy, 3B/1B
24 years old, R/R
Drafted 20:9 (2011, Astros)
Drafted After: Ben Klafcynski
Drafted Before: Brandon Williamson
In round 20, you find dreams of players and organizational filler. Duffy did not make the top 100 rankings for anyone after he completed his age 23 season in A ball, but it was a pretty solid year with him slashing 280/387/447. Good contact, good plate discipline, and a smack of power. This is the kind of hit that makes me think maybe there is something to this approach. He is still off of many people's radar and probably for good reasons, but if you need filler in the minors for your star prospects to play around...this is probably the kind of filler you want.
I would call this a somewhat non-consequential hit. He provides usefulness in the system, but nothing beyond that.
Taylor Dugas, OF
23 years old, L/L
Drafted 8:29 (2012, Yankees)
Drafted After: Cody Kendall
Drafted Before: Josh Ludy
Dugas was actually drafted in the 8th round by the Cubs, but they could not agree on a price. He went back to school and then wound up with the Yankees. As a professional, he has not been recognized as a valuable prospect, but he has performed well. He has shown excellent contact and plate discipline though nothing else. As he advances up the ladder, the lack of power or speed will likely become issues.
This could be contrived as a hit in terms of providing an organizational type.
Conclusions So Far
I am not sure this system has done a great job of finding true prospects, but it certainly has done a solid job at finding players who are able to hold their own in the low minors. This is not much of a surprise given their experience in competitive conferences. The performance of this criteria may indicate that if a team is simply looking for solid contributions of low minors players in the organization that a tool like this might work. We should take this all rather suspiciously as there really is not a great deal of information backing this data set up.
In the next article, I will review the targets identified in 2012: James Ramsay, Kevin Plawecki, Christian Walker, and Devon Travis.
I created a system that could uses collegiate performance to identify players who would be useful in the minors. I scanned over batting lines and employed strength of schedule adjustments of players in the college ranks using College Baseball Splits. The devised system was designed to identify a subset of useful talent, not all useful talent. The criteria:
Plate discipline - I measure plate discipline by the walk rate and the ratio of walks to strikeouts. I have arbitrarily set these lines as a walk rate >15% and a >1.5 BB:K ratio. The thought behind this is to target players who have a good understanding of hittable pitches and their ability to work for a walk.
Contact rate - I also look for batting averages greater than .300. From an anecdotal perspective, players with good plate discipline AND poor contact rates in college have trouble progressing through the minors. As they face a greater number of pitchers with more command of their pitches, the opportunities for walks will decrease. Pitchers are more likely to pitch in the zone and for a player to make contact. Collegiate players who do not have good contact rates tend to get eaten up by pro-quality offerings.
Power - Good contact rate and plate discipline are a great foundation for a hitting skill set. However, slapping the ball in professional leagues with players who field better is not as useful. There are just not many Ichiro Suzukis out there. In the pro game, there needs to be some power to go along with these skills. Otherwise, pitchers will go at hitters and give them pitches to hit, knowing that there is unlikely to be much damage. For this criteria, I set an ISO of .180.
In 2011, eight players were identified as fitting this criteria at the time of my assessment. Those players were Anthony Rendon, Kolten Wong, Joe Panik, Rob Kral, Matt Duffy, Taylor Dugas, Matt Skole, and Dan Gamache.
Anthony Rendon, 3B
23 years old, R/R
Drafted 1:6 (2011, Nationals)
Selected After: Bubba Starling
Selected Before: Archie Bradley
Baseball America (19th, 2012; 30th, 2013)
MLB.com (27th, 2012; 28th, 2013)
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 22 | 4 Teams | AA-A+-A--Rk | 160 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 23 | 29 | .233 | .363 | .489 |
| 2012 | 22 | Nationals | Rk | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .364 | .500 | 1.000 |
| 2012 | 22 | Auburn | A- | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | .259 | .375 | .444 |
| 2012 | 22 | Potomac | A+ | 32 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | .333 | .438 | .630 |
| 2012 | 22 | Harrisburg | AA | 82 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 16 | .162 | .305 | .368 |
| 2013 | 23 | Harrisburg | AA | 65 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 9 | .292 | .462 | .500 |
| 2 Seasons | 225 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 37 | 38 | .249 | .391 | .492 | |||
| AA (2 seasons) | AA | 147 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 25 | .216 | .374 | .422 | ||
| Rk (1 season) | Rk | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .364 | .500 | 1.000 | ||
| A- (1 season) | A- | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | .259 | .375 | .444 | ||
| A+ (1 season) | A+ | 32 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | .333 | .438 | .630 | ||
Rendon was not a difficult selection to make for this system as he was Baseball America's number one prospect entering the 2011 draft. He fell to the Nationals at 6 due to injury concerns that have continued to haunt him and left him with only 160 minor league plate appearances and now a handful in the Majors. He looks like a potential star. That said, the criteria worked no better than how evaluators viewed him.
Kolten Wong, 2B
22 years old, L/R
Drafted 1:22 (2011, Cardinals)
Drafted After: Tyler Beede
Drafted Before: Alex Meyer
Baseball America (93rd, 2012; 84th, 2013)
MLB.com (83rd, 2013)
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 20 | Quad Cities | A | 222 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 24 | .335 | .401 | .510 |
| 2012 | 21 | Springfield | AA | 579 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 44 | 74 | .287 | .348 | .405 |
| 2013 | 22 | Memphis | AAA | 87 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | .313 | .337 | .413 |
| 3 Seasons | 888 | 40 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 69 | 106 | .301 | .360 | .432 | |||
I would also call this a hit, but one that is only slightly more impressive than Rendon.
Joe Panik, 2B
22 years old, L/R
Drafted 1:29 (2011, Giants)
Drafted After: Sean Gilmartin
Drafted Before: Levi Michael
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 20 | Salem-Keizer | A- | 304 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 25 | .341 | .401 | .467 |
| 2012 | 21 | San Jose | A+ | 605 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 58 | 54 | .297 | .368 | .402 |
| 2013 | 22 | Richmond | AA | 102 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | .295 | .386 | .375 |
| 3 Seasons | 1011 | 42 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 99 | 87 | .310 | .380 | .419 | |||
Panik was rated as a late first round to supplemental selection and that is where he went. The knock on him was that he really was not a shortstop and that his bat would become more important with a switch off that position. Two years later, he is now a second baseman in AA ball. He has shown a strong contact rate, good plate discipline, and an inkling of power. He too profiles as an average 2B at this point. Levi Michael, the SS taken behind Panik, was expected to have a better shot at sticking, but has not begun his move over to second as well. He is currently repeating HiA. At this point, Panik looks like the better selection.
I would call this a hit as well and one that is beginning to look more impressive with the major split in opinion on him when he was drafted.
Matt Skole, 1B/3B
23 years old, L/R
Drafted 5:6 (2011, Nationals)
Drafted After: Patrick Leonard
Drafted Before: Will Roberts
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | Auburn | A- | 319 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 52 | .290 | .382 | .438 |
| 2012 | 22 | 2 Teams | A-A+ | 524 | 28 | 1 | 27 | 11 | 99 | 133 | .291 | .426 | .559 |
| 2012 | 22 | Hagerstown | A | 448 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 94 | 116 | .286 | .438 | .574 |
| 2012 | 22 | Potomac | A+ | 76 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | .314 | .355 | .486 |
| 2013 | 23 | Harrisburg | AA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .200 | .429 | .400 |
| 3 Seasons | 850 | 52 | 2 | 32 | 13 | 143 | 187 | .290 | .410 | .510 | |||
What we are seeing again and again is this: players who excel in competitive college environments with respect to contact, discipline, and power tend to also perform well in the low minors. Baseball America may not have Skole as a top 100 prospect, but they called him the 4th best prospect in the Nationals' system. He looks to be an average 1B or better if he can actually stick at third.
This could be contrived as a hit.
Dan Gamache, 2B
22 years old, L/R
Drafted 6:1 (2011, Pirates)
Drafted After: Mitch Walding
Drafted Before: James Zamarripa
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 20 | Pirates | Rk | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | .350 | .440 | .350 |
| 2011 | 20 | State College | A- | 72 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | .231 | .292 | .338 |
| 2012 | 21 | West Virginia | A | 502 | 40 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 41 | 95 | .285 | .350 | .430 |
| 2013 | 22 | Bradenton | A+ | 92 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | .287 | .315 | .345 |
| 3 Seasons | 691 | 47 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 52 | 133 | .282 | .343 | .406 | |||
Gamache played in the Auburn band box, which was a concern in that many thought it was inflating his numbers and encouraging an approach that would not work as a professional. In 2012, he showed in low A ball that he had a sufficient bat with decent contact rates, plate discipline, and doubles power. He is a long shot at being a MLB quality 2B. He is more of an organizational type.
This selection seems about average as sixth round picks go.
Rob Kral, C/DH
24 years old, L/R
Drafted 10:22 (2011, Padres)
Drafted After: Cody Koback
Drafted Before: Joe Maloney
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 22 | Padres | Rk | 54 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 | .275 | .463 | .425 |
| 2012 | 23 | Lake Elsinore | A+ | 68 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 13 | .315 | .426 | .574 |
| 2012 | 23 | San Antonio | AA | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | .160 | .371 | .200 |
| 2012 | 23 | Tucson | AAA | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | .385 | .556 | .462 |
| 2013 | 24 | Lake Elsinore | A+ | 51 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 7 | .356 | .431 | .733 |
| 3 Seasons | 227 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 44 | 39 | .299 | .438 | .520 | |||
| A+ (2 seasons) | A+ | 119 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 20 | .333 | .429 | .646 | ||
| AA (1 season) | AA | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | .160 | .371 | .200 | ||
| Rk (1 season) | Rk | 54 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 | .275 | .463 | .425 | ||
| AAA (1 season) | AAA | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | .385 | .556 | .462 | ||
Kral has not been a wonder behind the plate, which was expected. However, he has been solid at the plate in the low minors. At 24, he is a bit old to be in HiA, but a slash of 333/429/1075 in HiA is pretty solid for a 10th round pick. If things break right for him (the hill is pretty steep to climb), he may be able to find himself in the Majors in 2015. You really cannot be too upset over finding a guy who has decent power, good plate discipline, and good contact. The Rangers' Joe Maloney is a decent person to compare Kral to as he too is a catcher who likely will not be a catcher. Similar to Kral, Maloney is also doing his best at killing the ball. This takes the shine off of Kral a little bit, but both guys would be solid gets for a team in the tenth.
The jury is still out on this selection.
Matt Duffy, 3B/1B
24 years old, R/R
Drafted 20:9 (2011, Astros)
Drafted After: Ben Klafcynski
Drafted Before: Brandon Williamson
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 22 | Tri-City | A- | 266 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 41 | .298 | .370 | .417 |
| 2012 | 23 | Lexington | A | 587 | 32 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 48 | 106 | .280 | .387 | .447 |
| 2013 | 24 | Lancaster | A+ | 77 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 11 | .344 | .447 | .641 |
| 3 Seasons | 930 | 57 | 3 | 22 | 8 | 70 | 158 | .291 | .387 | .454 | |||
In round 20, you find dreams of players and organizational filler. Duffy did not make the top 100 rankings for anyone after he completed his age 23 season in A ball, but it was a pretty solid year with him slashing 280/387/447. Good contact, good plate discipline, and a smack of power. This is the kind of hit that makes me think maybe there is something to this approach. He is still off of many people's radar and probably for good reasons, but if you need filler in the minors for your star prospects to play around...this is probably the kind of filler you want.
I would call this a somewhat non-consequential hit. He provides usefulness in the system, but nothing beyond that.
Taylor Dugas, OF
23 years old, L/L
Drafted 8:29 (2012, Yankees)
Drafted After: Cody Kendall
Drafted Before: Josh Ludy
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 22 | Staten Island | A- | 276 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 35 | .306 | .465 | .373 |
| 2013 | 23 | Charleston | A | 94 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 4 | .293 | .426 | .373 |
| 2 Seasons | 370 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 65 | 39 | .303 | .455 | .373 | |||
Dugas was actually drafted in the 8th round by the Cubs, but they could not agree on a price. He went back to school and then wound up with the Yankees. As a professional, he has not been recognized as a valuable prospect, but he has performed well. He has shown excellent contact and plate discipline though nothing else. As he advances up the ladder, the lack of power or speed will likely become issues.
This could be contrived as a hit in terms of providing an organizational type.
Conclusions So Far
I am not sure this system has done a great job of finding true prospects, but it certainly has done a solid job at finding players who are able to hold their own in the low minors. This is not much of a surprise given their experience in competitive conferences. The performance of this criteria may indicate that if a team is simply looking for solid contributions of low minors players in the organization that a tool like this might work. We should take this all rather suspiciously as there really is not a great deal of information backing this data set up.
In the next article, I will review the targets identified in 2012: James Ramsay, Kevin Plawecki, Christian Walker, and Devon Travis.
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