Duquette's Trades in 20/20 (2012 Season)

Dan Duquette has been pretty active on the trade market since taking over the helm.  Most of those trades have been for rather minor pieces with Duquette giving up fringe prospects.  This series of articles is trying to illustrate exactly what the Orioles have lost and acquired in their deals during the Duquette era.  Perhaps by doing this exercise, we can see how well he has performed in the past and maybe what it means for any deals that may go down in the coming weeks.  I will be splitting them into the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons.


December 1, 2011
C Taylor Teagarden for RHRP Randy Henry and INF Greg Miclat
The Orioles were in need of a backup catchers after years of organizational neglect.  The Rangers wanted to reorganize their resources, had Yorvit Torrealba and Geovanny Soto as backups, and were willing to dangle the once promising Teagarden.  The Rangers agreed on receiving a promising relief arm in Henry and a Rule 5 survivor in Miclat.

The result has been somewhat inconsequential on both sides.  Teagarden was often injured and a poor performer when healthy although he did occaisionally come through with a much needed hit now and then.  Henry followed solid minor league relief campaigns in 2012 and 2013 with a horrible beginning to 2014.  Miclat has had injuries and poor performance chase him.  He is currently doing poorly in AA for the Cardinals.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: I would prefer John Hester backing up Wieters and keeping both Henry and Miclat.  I may disagree with the deal, but it is not worth making much fuss over.
Conclusion: -0.7 bWAR; Push.

December 8, 2011
LHP Dana Eveland for INF Tyler Henson and LHSP Jarret Martin
The Orioles were in need for starting pitching and their new scouting talent supposedly noted that Eveland had developed into a different pitcher.  The Dodgers had an abundance of starting pitchers and knew they could not hold onto him, so he was dealt Henson, organizational filler, and an interesting southpaw in Martin.

Eveland did not become the new pitcher that the Orioles hoped he would be.  He spot started a couple times and moved into relief where he was not particularly effective.  He then went to Korea.  This year, he has appeared out of the Mets' bullpen and has done well in middle relief.  For the Dodgers, Henson provided good organizational depth in AAA.  For the past two years, he has done the same for the Phillies.  He has yet to see the Majors.  Jarret Martin still remains an interesting pitcher, but he has almost no control of his pitches and hopes are faint that he ever will.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: I am not particularly impressed with Eveland and find it rare that players all of a sudden break out.  That said, the value being exchanged here between these teams is minimal.
Conclusion: 0.2 bWAR; Push.

February 6, 2012
Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom
The Orioles were falling out with Guthrie and wanted to spend the 8.2 MM he would get in arbitration in other ways.  The Rockies wanted a proven veteran in their rotation to be a capstone piece and we were to deal a marginal backend arm and a good reliever.  In other words, it was a quantity for quality deal with some savings for Baltimore.

What happened was that Guthrie completely fell apart for the Rockies and was eventually dealt to Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez, who also exploded in Colorado.  In Kansas City, Guthrie found himself again and has strung two of his best seasons in the Majors.  For the Orioles, Jason Hammel was a revelation when healthy.  He found another level with his two seamer and was often dominant on the mound.  Although injured through the stretch run, he was a major reason why the Orioles made the playoffs.  Lindstrom was rather dominant in the pen as well and was a decent enough chip for the Orioles to secure Joe Saunders in August as a replacement for Hammel.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: If you take the above to heart and find Hammel and Guthrie equivalent then a second control year of Hammel and Matt Lindstrom are just gravy. 
and for the Saunders deal...
This is certainly not a game changing trade.  Few deals in August are game changers.  However, the Orioles have been able to convert their abundance of relief talent into improving the talent available for starting pitching.  As long as the player to be named later is no one of great importance, this is a solid deal looking to go as deep as possible this year. 
Conclusion: 5.4 bWAR; Orioles

April 21, 2012
Josh Bell for Mike Belfiore

By April 2012, Josh Bell was no longer viewed as the future of third base for the Orioles.  The promise he showed the summer he was traded for with George Sherrill had not be duplicated in the two following seasons.  His ability to tee off of left handed pitchers in AAA did not translate to the Majors and he could never tough right handers.  Add to that some questionable defense and there really was not much for him to offer the club.  The Orioles cashed him in for the Diamondback's low minors relief arm, Mike Belfiore.

After the trade went through, Bell continued to be decent in AAA play and horrendous in the Majors.  Mike Belfiore made one appearance in the Majors and pitched admirably for the club in the minors.  Faced with a roster crunch in April 2014, the Orioles designated him for assignment and the Detroit Tigers picked him up.  In Toledo, the strikeouts have decreased and the walked have inched upwards, but few batters are crossing the plate.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment or, at least, none that I could find.
Conclusion: 0.3; Push

June 30, 2012
Jim Thome for Gabriel Lino and Kyle Simon

At the time, the Orioles needed some help when Nick Markakis went down and Chris Davis had to trot out to right field.  The team was underwhelmed with what Nick Johnson was doing at the plate.  The fading Phillies had Jim Thome.  Thome turned heads in June after smashing the Orioles in an interleague series.  The Orioles, amazingly in the playoff conversation, pulled the trigger and handed the Phillies a relief pitcher with an interesting arm (Kyle Simon) and a defensive catcher with some pop (Gabriel Lino).

Jim Thome was largely a non-factor with the Orioles as he was a substandard DH who played in only 28 games over the final three months of the season.  On the Phillies side, Simon was put into a relief role and has had trouble achieving success at the AA level.  That is better than Lino, who still has some defense, but his bat is incapable of hitting HiA pitchers.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: In all likelihood, I see this as happening.  Thome hits pretty well and leaves the team at the end of the year.  The Orioles will likely finish in fourth or fifth place, but with a record that is about 15th to 18th best in the league.  Kyle Simon will fade out in AAA at some point.  Gabriel Lino will eventually get a cup of coffee, impressing people on his defense and making them wish he could square up more.
Conclusion: 0.0; Push

August 13, 2012
Carlos Rojas for JC Romero

With conversations about to result in Matt Lindstrom being sent away, the Orioles needed more depth in their pen.  The Orioles added to their pen a lefty who had once been successful, but was struggling with the Indians.  The cost was a career minor league infielder who was essentially organization filler.  It was a minor deal with a minor outcome.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment.
Conclusion: 0.0; Push

Final Tally
5.2 bWAR

Almost all of the value Dan Duquette acquired in his deals were the products of his trades for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom and the later deal for Joe Saunders.  These acquisitions, somewhat arguably, are the reason why the Orioles made the playoffs.  It could be argued as well that someone not named Duquette would have kept Jeremy Guthrie and not acquired Wei-Yin Chen, who was a free agent.  Perhaps someone not named Duquette also would not have signed Nate McLouth.  These were the final strokes that brought this club over the top.

The cost has been for a large number of players who are either no longer in baseball or may be able to pull out a couple years middle relievers.  In other words, he gave up pretty much nothing.  Ignore the release of Alfredo Simon and the signing of Tsuyoshi Wada, Duquette was flawless.

Here comes Thome!

Yesterday I posted an opinion piece where I stated that the Orioles are ripe for a downfall.  That the team has been overachieving with holes at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and SP.  These were too many holes to be aggressive in trading.  I doubt anyone in the front office read anything I wrote yesterday, but they sort of met halfway to nowhere with my perspective yesterday as they acquired DH Jim Thome for a pair of minor leaguers in RHP Kyle Simon and C Gabriel Lino.

Jim Thome
DH
Jim Thome is an excellent hitter.  He has always been an excellent hitter.  Age has ruined many of his skills and his ability to stay healthy, but he still has a great eye and enough bat speed to punish any pitch that enters his zone.  He probably has about 250 plate appearances left in him this summer where he will likely hit in the .820 to .860 OPS range.  That should be worth about 1 WAR coming from him.  The other 100 plate appearances will come from existing players and produce about an additional 0.1 or 0.2 WAR.  That stands as an improvement of about 0.7 WAR over what Mark Reynolds, Wilson Betemit, Nick Johnson, and Chris Davis have managed at the position (.781 OPS).  A 0.7 value for about 700k is a $ per win rate of 1MM.  Current market value puts it around 4.5MM per win.  In a vacuum, this is a very efficient trade.  If you think this team is truly a .550 winning percentage team, then it is also likely an effective move.  Every little bit that pushes you in the right direction is worth a great deal or, at least, can be worth a great deal when the playoffs are involved.

However, this deal was not completed in a vacuum nor was it completed in a 5x5 league.  These guys have to put some collection of players on the field.  As it stands the Orioles have 5 DHs on the roster.  Mark Reynolds is a butcher in the field even though the press has heralded his defensive aptitude these past two offseasons.  He dropped some weight in the offseason, but it did nothing to affect his range and his rushed throwing mechanics.  His dives and snags look good, but the misses and throwaways mean more to his defensive value.  First base limits his ability to adversely affect the game, but he still rates poor over there.  His bat barely makes up for this deficiency.  Unfortunately, he has stated time and time again that he does not have the mindset to succeed as a DH.

Chris Davis is another player who makes some nice plays and gets some accolades for defense, but simply does not have the range or throws to make him an average first or third baseman.  His bat, when hot, makes up for these problems.  His bat is not always hot, so, like Reynolds, he often waivers between being above average and being below replacement level.  Like Reynolds, Davis is likely to be worth about as much as a bench player or a fill in when the rest of the team is much stronger in the lineup and on the field.

Wilson Betemit's bat has always shone great promise.  The hope was that his fielding would come around.  It never has and it simply gets worse as he ages and his agility decreases.  He still hammers righties and that is where his value comes from.  Unfortunately...that is what Chris Davis does and Nick Johnson does.  Nick is currently on the DL.  He has a good eye and some remnants of power, but he is not likely to be in the team's plans anymore because Thome is a better version of Nick Johnson.

So, what we have here are 5 DHs with none of them able to play the field and one on the DL, likely to be released.  This deal slightly improves the DH position and forces DHs to remain on the field.  Mind you, this does not make the Orioles' defense worse because these DHs were playing the field to begin with.  It does make it seem less likely that players will be acquired to push Reynolds, Davis, and Betemit to DH where they belong.  I think that would truly be the playoff run move.  It would also likely be a move that would require more than Kyle Simon and Gabriel Lino.


Kyle Simon
RHP
Simon was drafted in the 4th round in last year's draft.  At the time of the draft, Nick surmised:

Simon throws from a low, almost side-armed, slot, relying primarily on a fastball/change-up pairing. Like Wright, he is a big-bodied righty with some arm strength and a chance to start if things break right. Inconsistencies in his release and his low-angle make it difficult for him to command his slider right now -- improving that offering will be key in determining whether or not he ultimately ends up in the pen. Like Wright, he's tough to lift because of the sink on his heater and his change, allowing him to go 128.2 IP while allowing just two homeruns. He doesn't miss may bats right now, but the hope is that he will once he finds a more consistent breaker.

That is basically what he still is.  He is a groundball pitcher who does not miss bats.  A sinker that gets contact in A ball is not likely to be a solid pitch unless he is able to improve upon it.  He has been about league average this year and his stuff plays pretty similarly to both righties and lefties.  I have yet to see him throw, but to me he seems to have the makings of a fringe MLB reliever.  It would not surprise me if he peters out in AA with some splashes in AAA.  Considering Thome was last traded for a small transaction fee and before that a no hit minor league utility player, this would have been a perfectly fine price to pay for his services.

Gabriel Lino
C
Lino was also in the deal, which in my opinion technically makes this an overpay.  It is easy to get high on Lino because he is a 19 year old in full season ball with exceptional potential as a defensive catcher and a lot of pop.  It is important to remember that Lino does not have much of a contact tool and is being overwhelmed at the plate this season.  We had him rated as the 16th best prospect in the Orioles' system before the year began:

Backstop Gabriel Lino has some offensive upside and a strong arm behind the dish, but may lack the lateral quickness needed to stick at catcher long term, particularly if he gets any bigger. He has soft hands but lets his glove float a little too often when receiving, which he'll need to tighten. The power is still raw, and does not project particularly well to a corner infield spot. Just 18-years old this year, he has time to work on his problem areas. Should his power tool emerge, he could shift to first base in order to allow more developmental focus on his bat. He is on the large side for a catcher, and it still remains to be seen how he will hold up physically over the stress of a long full season ball season.

The projection was that he would become a fringe back up catcher, but that his ceiling was as a starting catcher on a first division team.  This is the kind of player I would not like to give up.  My perspective with prospects is that if you have any high ceiling catchers, short stops, or centerfielders that you do what you can to keep them.  To simply find an average player out of those positions is worth a great deal in value.  If (and it is a big if) Lino can find his bat, he could easily be a top 50 prospect.  There simply are not many catchers who can put that package together.  That said, he is not a top 50 catcher.  He is not a top 200 catcher.  There is promise there though.  Some, like Kevin Goldstein, agree that there is potential there.  Others, like Keith Law, do not see the ceiling.

The Likely Outcome
In all likelihood, I see this as happening.  Thome hits pretty well and leaves the team at the end of the year.  The Orioles will likely finish in fourth or fifth place, but with a record that is about 15th to 18th best in the league.  Kyle Simon will fade out in AAA at some point.  Gabriel Lino will eventually get a cup of coffee, impressing people on his defense and making them wish he could square up more.

What Can Change All of This
Another deal could be coming and this may change the outlook.  The team has five DHs.  Nick Johnson will likely be DFA'd.  With Thome on board, he serves no role.  It may be the end of the line for him.  I could see Davis being moved for a piece.  He does not have much value, but I could still see someone dream on him.  I do not think this would bring in a top tier talent, but it could bring something decent.  I cannot think of an obvious target though at the moment for him.  Maybe Arizona if they think he can play third (does anyone believe that he can?).  Maybe the Dodgers.  I do not know.