Duquette's Trades in 20/20 (2012 Season)

Dan Duquette has been pretty active on the trade market since taking over the helm.  Most of those trades have been for rather minor pieces with Duquette giving up fringe prospects.  This series of articles is trying to illustrate exactly what the Orioles have lost and acquired in their deals during the Duquette era.  Perhaps by doing this exercise, we can see how well he has performed in the past and maybe what it means for any deals that may go down in the coming weeks.  I will be splitting them into the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons.


December 1, 2011
C Taylor Teagarden for RHRP Randy Henry and INF Greg Miclat
The Orioles were in need of a backup catchers after years of organizational neglect.  The Rangers wanted to reorganize their resources, had Yorvit Torrealba and Geovanny Soto as backups, and were willing to dangle the once promising Teagarden.  The Rangers agreed on receiving a promising relief arm in Henry and a Rule 5 survivor in Miclat.

The result has been somewhat inconsequential on both sides.  Teagarden was often injured and a poor performer when healthy although he did occaisionally come through with a much needed hit now and then.  Henry followed solid minor league relief campaigns in 2012 and 2013 with a horrible beginning to 2014.  Miclat has had injuries and poor performance chase him.  He is currently doing poorly in AA for the Cardinals.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: I would prefer John Hester backing up Wieters and keeping both Henry and Miclat.  I may disagree with the deal, but it is not worth making much fuss over.
Conclusion: -0.7 bWAR; Push.

December 8, 2011
LHP Dana Eveland for INF Tyler Henson and LHSP Jarret Martin
The Orioles were in need for starting pitching and their new scouting talent supposedly noted that Eveland had developed into a different pitcher.  The Dodgers had an abundance of starting pitchers and knew they could not hold onto him, so he was dealt Henson, organizational filler, and an interesting southpaw in Martin.

Eveland did not become the new pitcher that the Orioles hoped he would be.  He spot started a couple times and moved into relief where he was not particularly effective.  He then went to Korea.  This year, he has appeared out of the Mets' bullpen and has done well in middle relief.  For the Dodgers, Henson provided good organizational depth in AAA.  For the past two years, he has done the same for the Phillies.  He has yet to see the Majors.  Jarret Martin still remains an interesting pitcher, but he has almost no control of his pitches and hopes are faint that he ever will.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: I am not particularly impressed with Eveland and find it rare that players all of a sudden break out.  That said, the value being exchanged here between these teams is minimal.
Conclusion: 0.2 bWAR; Push.

February 6, 2012
Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom
The Orioles were falling out with Guthrie and wanted to spend the 8.2 MM he would get in arbitration in other ways.  The Rockies wanted a proven veteran in their rotation to be a capstone piece and we were to deal a marginal backend arm and a good reliever.  In other words, it was a quantity for quality deal with some savings for Baltimore.

What happened was that Guthrie completely fell apart for the Rockies and was eventually dealt to Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez, who also exploded in Colorado.  In Kansas City, Guthrie found himself again and has strung two of his best seasons in the Majors.  For the Orioles, Jason Hammel was a revelation when healthy.  He found another level with his two seamer and was often dominant on the mound.  Although injured through the stretch run, he was a major reason why the Orioles made the playoffs.  Lindstrom was rather dominant in the pen as well and was a decent enough chip for the Orioles to secure Joe Saunders in August as a replacement for Hammel.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: If you take the above to heart and find Hammel and Guthrie equivalent then a second control year of Hammel and Matt Lindstrom are just gravy. 
and for the Saunders deal...
This is certainly not a game changing trade.  Few deals in August are game changers.  However, the Orioles have been able to convert their abundance of relief talent into improving the talent available for starting pitching.  As long as the player to be named later is no one of great importance, this is a solid deal looking to go as deep as possible this year. 
Conclusion: 5.4 bWAR; Orioles

April 21, 2012
Josh Bell for Mike Belfiore

By April 2012, Josh Bell was no longer viewed as the future of third base for the Orioles.  The promise he showed the summer he was traded for with George Sherrill had not be duplicated in the two following seasons.  His ability to tee off of left handed pitchers in AAA did not translate to the Majors and he could never tough right handers.  Add to that some questionable defense and there really was not much for him to offer the club.  The Orioles cashed him in for the Diamondback's low minors relief arm, Mike Belfiore.

After the trade went through, Bell continued to be decent in AAA play and horrendous in the Majors.  Mike Belfiore made one appearance in the Majors and pitched admirably for the club in the minors.  Faced with a roster crunch in April 2014, the Orioles designated him for assignment and the Detroit Tigers picked him up.  In Toledo, the strikeouts have decreased and the walked have inched upwards, but few batters are crossing the plate.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment or, at least, none that I could find.
Conclusion: 0.3; Push

June 30, 2012
Jim Thome for Gabriel Lino and Kyle Simon

At the time, the Orioles needed some help when Nick Markakis went down and Chris Davis had to trot out to right field.  The team was underwhelmed with what Nick Johnson was doing at the plate.  The fading Phillies had Jim Thome.  Thome turned heads in June after smashing the Orioles in an interleague series.  The Orioles, amazingly in the playoff conversation, pulled the trigger and handed the Phillies a relief pitcher with an interesting arm (Kyle Simon) and a defensive catcher with some pop (Gabriel Lino).

Jim Thome was largely a non-factor with the Orioles as he was a substandard DH who played in only 28 games over the final three months of the season.  On the Phillies side, Simon was put into a relief role and has had trouble achieving success at the AA level.  That is better than Lino, who still has some defense, but his bat is incapable of hitting HiA pitchers.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: In all likelihood, I see this as happening.  Thome hits pretty well and leaves the team at the end of the year.  The Orioles will likely finish in fourth or fifth place, but with a record that is about 15th to 18th best in the league.  Kyle Simon will fade out in AAA at some point.  Gabriel Lino will eventually get a cup of coffee, impressing people on his defense and making them wish he could square up more.
Conclusion: 0.0; Push

August 13, 2012
Carlos Rojas for JC Romero

With conversations about to result in Matt Lindstrom being sent away, the Orioles needed more depth in their pen.  The Orioles added to their pen a lefty who had once been successful, but was struggling with the Indians.  The cost was a career minor league infielder who was essentially organization filler.  It was a minor deal with a minor outcome.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment.
Conclusion: 0.0; Push

Final Tally
5.2 bWAR

Almost all of the value Dan Duquette acquired in his deals were the products of his trades for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom and the later deal for Joe Saunders.  These acquisitions, somewhat arguably, are the reason why the Orioles made the playoffs.  It could be argued as well that someone not named Duquette would have kept Jeremy Guthrie and not acquired Wei-Yin Chen, who was a free agent.  Perhaps someone not named Duquette also would not have signed Nate McLouth.  These were the final strokes that brought this club over the top.

The cost has been for a large number of players who are either no longer in baseball or may be able to pull out a couple years middle relievers.  In other words, he gave up pretty much nothing.  Ignore the release of Alfredo Simon and the signing of Tsuyoshi Wada, Duquette was flawless.

The Cost and Value of Joe Saunders

by Stuart Wallace
How Do I Baseball | @tclippardsspecs

If there is a phrase that can sum up the 2012 offseason, it could be The Offseason of the Three Year Deal. From so-so relievers, middle of the pack starters, and what seems to be every free agent target of the Boston Red Sox, unless your name is Adam LaRoche, and there’s a signing, it is of the three year variety.

While the signing of Joe Saunders remains a high priority for the Orioles as they prepare for pitchers and catchers reporting to Sarasota on February 12th, there is some reluctance on the Orioles part to sign Saunders to one of the these en vogue three year deals. In spite of an inspired stretch of pitching wearing the orange and black, offering Saunders the three year deal he desires remains a risky proposition for the Orioles, not only in terms of the money involved for what amounts to a back end of the rotation starter, but also regarding his production during the end of his potential deal, which would come in his age 34 season.

While signings of the multiyear variety are inherently risky, are the risks involved with locking up Saunders to the deal he is looking for palatable for the Orioles? Are there other options should a multiyear deal for Saunders not be the right fit for Baltimore?

To answer those questions, let’s compare Saunders to a couple of pitchers who were also mentioned in the linked article who have been on the receiving end of some generous contracts this offseason, Jeremy Guthrie and Edwin Jackson. As you may recall, Guthrie is the proud owner of a 3 year (see?), $25 million deal from the Kansas City Royals, while EJax just had the ink dry on his 4 year, $52 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. Let’s start with the career numbers, courtesy of Fangraphs:

                                                                       

	Yrs	W	L	GS	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Saunders	8	78	65	189	1161.1	9.58	5.13	2.74	1.12	1.37	0.292	10.6 %	4.15	4.56	4.48	12
Guthrie	9	55	77	183	1202	9.13	5.44	2.65	1.26	1.31	0.276	10.6 %	4.28	4.74	4.63	12
Jackson	10	70	71	204	1268.2	9.41	6.87	3.53	1.01	1.44	0.306	10.0 %	4.4	4.26	4.29	16.9

In general, all three players have had similar careers in terms of stats and overall production, with the only glaring difference between the three being career winning percentage, with Saunders being the only player with a winning record for their career.

OK, so we are barking up the right tree comparing these three with one another, let’s go a little further and see how their 2012 seasons fared, since this is what will make or break a player’s leverage for signing the contract of his liking. I also included Saunders’ Baltimore split season stats for perusal, since this is what the Oriole front office is more than likely using as their ground truth, with respect to projecting stats in accordance to making a decision on how many years to offer Saunders. Guthrie himself had a 2012 split season, between Colorado and KC, but those splits will be left out of the argument, for the sake of clarity and brevity.

                                                                       

	Team	W	L	GS	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Jackson	WSH	10	11	31	189.2	8.21	7.97	2.75	1.09	1.22	0.278	11.7 %	4.03	3.85	3.79	2.7
Saunders	- - -	9	13	28	174.2	10.05	5.77	2.01	1.08	1.34	0.305	10.2 %	4.07	4.08	4.25	2.5
Guthrie	- - -	8	12	29	181.2	10.21	5	2.48	1.49	1.41	0.294	13.5 %	4.76	5.1	4.75	1
Saunders	BAL	3	3	7	44.2	9.87	4.63	1.61	0.81	1.28	0.302	7.1 %	3.63	3.77	4.44	0.8

So here is what the O’s powers that be are looking at with Saunders - a 44+ inning sampling as an Oriole to figure whether the ghosts of small sample size will haunt their dreams if they were to give him a multiyear deal, in the hopes that he mimics the numbers he had for the team in 2012, or whether they pat themselves on the backs for a job well done in the evaluation of Saunders’ chances of being a capable backend starter for the foreseeable future.  From the table, we see that Saunders did a good job preventing the big inning as an Oriole, with the help of the solid O’s defense. His Baltimore numbers more or less look similar to his career numbers, in that he doesn’t strike many people out, or walk many in the process; he is your standard pitch to contact lefty. We also see that he did a better job than his career average in preventing walks and the big fly in those Baltimore innings.

So, what is a pitch to contact, keep it in the ballpark type of pitcher worth to Baltimore? Is there value in this type of player in the rotation? In the right situation, you can do a lot worse than Saunders as your #4 or #5 guy for the next three years. If a team is going to give him the three years he so desires, they do so knowing that his success lies in outpitching his peripheral stats, which can be a precarious proposition. However, with the likes of J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones behind him to scoop and snag most of the mistakes he leaves over the plate to hitters, it isn’t a completely unbearable proposition to give Saunders three years, especially if he is agreeable to an average annual value closer to what Guthrie makes in his new deal (~$8 million) than Jackson’s ($13 million). Even at $8 million, Saunders would be seeing a reasonable raise from his last contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and its $5.75 million AAV.

As encouraging as the stats might be, there is the reality that the courting of Saunders could have both parties walk away unfulfilled, in the form of Saunders walking away from an Oriole offer that’s less than three years, and the team searching for other options to take Saunders’ slot in the rotation.

Enter Chris Capuano.

For better or worse, the LA Dodger lefty is a spitting image of Saunders in terms of productivity, as his 2012 numbers...

	W	L	GS	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Capuano	12	12	33	198.1	8.53	7.35	2.45	1.13	1.22	0.284	11.1%	3.72	3.95	3.97	2.1
Saunders	9	13	28	174.2	10.05	5.77	2.01	1.08	1.34	0.305	10.2 %	4.07	4.08	4.25	2.5

...and career stats...   

                                                           

	W	L	GS	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Saunders	78	65	189	1161.1	9.58	5.13	2.74	1.12	1.37	0.292	0.11	4.15	4.56	4.48	12
Capuano	67	72	184	1129	9.19	7.54	2.85	1.27	1.34	0.298	0.12	4.26	4.31	4.11	11.8

...can attest.

With Capuano, we again have a lefty that hits his spots, and makes the most of the defense behind him to get outs. One thing Capuano has an advantage over Saunders is his higher K/9; however, this is offset by a slightly higher HR/9 and BB/9 compared to Saunders, so in some respects, the added ability to get the strikeout is a wash. Beyond performance, another perk that Capuano has over Saunders, which is probably more attractive to the Orioles front office, is his contract status. The deal he signed with the Dodgers has under team control for 2013, with an option year for 2014; compared to giving Saunders a three year deal, it’s a bargain. If the Orioles were to look to trade for Capuano, whom the Dodgers are looking to move, they would be on the hook for $6 million in 2013, with a 2014 option paid to the tune of $8 million, or a $1 million buyout. Overall, Capuano’s contract is fairly team friendly, if Baltimore were to look for other pitching options in light of lukewarm negotiations with Saunders.

How would a possible deal look from the LA side? Their need for a right handed outfielder and backup first baseman still has Los Angeles as active buyers this offseason, and an attractive potential trade partner for Baltimore, considering the glut of talent the O’s have at the corner outfield positions, as well as at first base and designated hitter. Players like WilsonBetemit, or the newly acquired Trayvon Robinson, along with an additional piece, could be an alluring offer to take Capuano off of the Dodgers hands, should Saunders’ time as an Oriole be over before it had really begun.

So far, the 2012 offseason has been highlighted by small, measured moves for the Orioles, which flies in the face of what many other teams have done with their offseason moves. However, for the first time in many years, the successes of last season didn’t require much tinkering or overhauling of the roster to keep the team in hot in pursuit of an AL East title and World Series run in 2013. Thus far for Baltimore, it was definitely has not been the Offseason of the Three Year Deal.

Much to the chagrin of Joe Saunders.