27 January 2016

The Final Move: Fister Or Jackson?

by Jake Brintzenhofe

Jake Brintzenhofe contributes to our expanded roster freelance effort.  Feel free to email us with a sample article if you are interested in being a part of that.

By signing Chris Davis to his recent mega deal, the Orioles sent a message: the club is built to win. The contract was a mortgage on the future by saddling what is likely dead money five years down the line for the sole purpose of sustaining the competitive status of the team over the next two or three years. With more holes to fill, then what else can the club do during the back end of free agency? Rumors have the Orioles willing to spend as much as $15 million more on their payroll next year and two major holes to fill: one in the rotation and one in the corner outfield. Let us assume that to fit their budget, they are going to choose to fill one of these holes with a free agent at a salary in the $10 million per year ballpark. Two possible fits left on the market are Austin Jackson and Doug Fister – this article will examine which player would make more sense in Camden Yards.

Doug Fister
Steamer, Fangraphs’ projection model, projects that Fister will be worth 1.4 WAR next year. I like Steamer, but chose to also run my own projection using a weighted linear model and Baseball Reference’s similarity score feature. I used the ten most similar players to Fister and then weighted each of the ten’s contribution to the model based on how similar those players were to Fister. The ten players were Ray Washburn, Danny Cox, Mike Scott, Pat Zachry, Cy Blanton, Dutch Leonard, Dick Donovan, Craig Swan, Jack Kralick and Virgil Trucks. I was struck by the fact that these were old timers for the most part; we have not seen a player quite like Fister in a long time. It was also striking that their age 32 season’s WAR (Fister’s age next year) ranged as high as 6.9 and as low as -2.1; there really was not a cluster.

My projection ended up a bit less optimistic than Steamer at 1.235 WAR next year for Fister. This is a great time to say that a projection is different than a prediction. Projections are the average result of a range of outcomes – if our projection uses correct assumptions, it’s a coin flip for which side of it Fister lands on. While 1.235 WAR is a solid expected value, it’s likely that given the wide range of performances by the group we used to project Fister, he will fall on either side of it by a significant amount. There is a lot of possible variability. For the Orioles to succeed, they really need Fister to out perform that projection. To assess which side Fister would likely fall on, I took a look at his peripherals. The chart below describes several important numbers for predicting future performance.





 A few takeaways:
  • Fister’s fly ball rate and home runs per fly ball took a jump from 2013 to 2014 and stayed there in 2015. Fly balls account for the overwhelming majority of home runs. If fly balls are happening more often and leaving the park more frequently, that means A LOT more home runs allowed.
  • Fister’s line drive rate also took a jump. Line drives are bad for pitchers because they are difficult to turn into outs. Per Fangraphs, line drives result in a .685 average for hitters when they occur; given this, Fister will simply not be able to be effective if he continues to give up line drives at a high rate.
  • Fister’s fastball velocity has consistently declined for the last 5 years and 32 year old pitchers do not gain velocity back on their fastball. It’s highly likely that that velocity continues to drop and that hitters hit Fister more often with more hard contact going forward.
It is worthwhile to consider whether or not Fister’s declining performance the last two years is due to misuse after his move from Detroit to DC as many have suggested. This is certainly a possibility, but Fister’s fastball should be independent of this switch; its decline points more to Fister just getting worse at baseball .

Austin Jackson

Steamer projects that Jackson will be worth 1 WAR next year. I used the same weighted model system as explained above and got a projection of .863 WAR next year for Jackson. The ten players used were Brian McRae, Jim Piersall, Marquis Grissom, Gerardo Parra, Augie Galan, Al Cowens, Coco Crisp, Bobby Tolan, Lenny Dykstra and Johnny Groth. This group is significantly more modern than that of Fister and was much more consistent with performance. While their range went from -1.1 WAR up to 4.4 WAR; they were mostly between -1 WAR and 1.5 WAR.
Just as with Fister, I took a look at Jackson’s peripherals to see if we could learn anything about which side of the projection he’ll likely fall on.



A Few Takeaways · Other than a possible fall in line drive rate the last 3 years, there aren’t any clear trends in the data. · I took a look at Jackson’s splits versus lefties and righties and didn’t see an abnormal difference. As such, he doesn’t profile as a great platoon option. · Jackson has extremely high BABIP numbers; for a player of this age, that normally stays high until he ages and loses speed. Jackson being 29 next year means he probably has a few more years before this starts to steeply decline.

Recommendation:
Neither player inspires optimism for the type of big year the Orioles probably need to make themselves serious wildcard contenders. That said, if the Orioles are serious about contending next year, they need to make the savvy moves where they find a player who is going to really outperform his projection and thus his price.

On January 15, Jerry Crasnick reported that Fister was seeking a deal for 2 years and $22 million. I couldn’t find any reports on a possible contract for Jackson, but he played on a 1 year $7.7 million deal last year – it’s reasonable to think he would take a similar deal this year. While this isn’t exactly a scientific comparison, it’s fair to assume that Jackson will come a bit cheaper than Fister will. I can’t get past Fister’s fastball velocity decline or his increasing propensity to give up home runs; I see him as a bad gamble. This is especially true given that Camden Yards was the second most home run friendly park in baseball last year.

Jackson on a cheaper one year deal with little risk makes more sense. While his peripherals are all over the road, their randomness makes it hard to say for sure that he’ll decline. He was a plus defender last year and could give the Orioles outfield depth that they have sorely missed the last several years. I wouldn’t expect much more than 1 WAR, but it appears far more likely that he out does this number than that Fister does. If I were the Orioles GM, I would offer Jackson a one year deal to play at Camden Yards, the third best park for run production in the MLB last year, and maybe earn himself a big contract next offseason.

25 comments:

Roger said...

Good article. Thanks for shooting holes in the Fister idea - he seems like the best option out there. I would have liked to have seen Latos included in the analysis since he is the youngest with the best projection and he is available and no one else seems to be willing to invite him in - could be had extra cheap.

Jackson is a nice option - not sure why more teams are not in on him. Personally, I am stuck on Jon's suggestion of Rockies OFs right now. Jackson as a stop-gap is nice but I sure would prefer a long term solution and Blackmon/Dickerson would be just that. I also think that Matusz might be a part of any deal and the O's are telling people to wait until after the arb trial.

The more we talk about it the better Wilson/Wright looks to me. I'd rather see an up-and-comer with no history rather than a down-and-outer with a statistical record.

Also, can we stop with the Davis hating? "Dead money"? That's the future anyway - maybe he will be mini-Thome.....

P said...

Very nice article, enjoyed it.
Although I agree completely about Fister I wonder if the period in which your comps played doesn't skew that comparision a bit?
I agree with Roger that if we're getting another OF, might as well trade for a meaningful upgrade.
But re: pitching. Surely Fister isn't the o my FA worth a look?
I don't like Latos at all and I can't imagine Buck wanting him around, but what about looking through 6th and 7th starters around the league, or even Johnson or Billingsly or another candidate for a deal like Arroyo just signed.

Anonymous said...

Now that the front office has extended Davis, they might as well go all in and sign BOTH Fister and Jackson... since it's only a matter of money, and any marginal upgrade is still better than nothing.

Anonymous said...

There needs to be at least 2 more moves! Billingsly or Latos. David murphy and/or Pedro Alvarez, done, trade Matusz for a bag of baseballs! Wright looked like a BPP his last few starts! Can we stop with the .196 and Adderal hating? Nope!

Roger said...

Welp. There goes Fister. Latos anyone?

Anonymous said...

Your Jackson analysis seems off. Steamer's projection is using current depth chart data and projects him for only about 400 PA's. If the O's are addressing an everyday need and not a platoon bat then he would easily be more like 1.5 WAR/600. He just put up a 2 win season and has been worth 18 wins over six seasons and is still on the right side of 30. As a CF he could easily slot into LF with Kim in RF and in OPACY I would expect him to maintain around the league average bat.

Now that the big FA's are signed I expect interest in him will ramp up and he is going to require more than a $7M pillow contract. I would think a one year deal will be in the $12M range, especially when a win is worth between $7M and $8M for multi-year contracts.

I think he is a good investment and I think we can try out Worley and hope his health stays around long enough for a Wright/Wilson platoon to get us through the end of the season.

Anonymous said...

Sorry swap the fields... Kim's arm puts him in LF.

Roger said...

Problem with Jackson, again, is that he's RH. Orioles are looking for LH RF. Still going with the Rockies trade. Also. I looked at the stats and he has declined over the last two year and hasn't shown much outside of DET. I mentioned a few articles back that I believe there is an effect on some players leaving their original team - they are just never the same. Don't see Jackson posting a .700+ OPS since he left DET.

Also, Fister took a 7M one year deal (up to 12M with incentives). Does that change the recommendations in the analysis? If the O's could have gotten him for one year up to 12M, would he have been worth it?

With regard to Mr. Negative up there, Matusz is one of the few Orioles who is actually earning his salary in WAA. There is value there. I only advocate trading him because he has value and his role is replaceable.

Roger said...

DAMN, Rays took Dickerson for McGee and minor leaguer. McGee is a replica of Matusz. Orioles could have had him for Matusz and Wright easy. What is wrong with DD!!!!!!

Jon Shepherd said...

No, McGee and Matusz are not the same.

Anonymous said...

Matusz has never earned his salary. He is only held onto because they don't want to admit another failure.... Rowell, Snyder, Blobgood, Loewen, as Steven Bishop would say: "On and on"!

Roger said...

Fine - they are not far apart. But Wright is also better than Marquez and closer to major league ready. I do think Blackmon is better than Dickerson, but Dickerson would have been just fine and the O's could have added more. At any rate, we are not even hearing that the O's are interested in the prime players available for a fit. They must think they've done enough. I sure hope Reimold plays brilliantly and Bundy becomes an ace pretty darn quickly.

P said...

So here's an honest question: would we rather have Austin Jackson for 7, Fowler for 30 plus losing a pick, or Steve Flippin' Pearce for 4.75??
Why, in God's sweet name, did Dan make exactly zero effort to retain a very solid player?

Jon Shepherd said...

It was well covered that Orioles inquired on the Colorado outfielders.

Jon Shepherd said...

Fowler for 30?

Pearce is 33, has one decent season, and does not listen to coaches or training staff when injured. I can understand why that might make them seek out another player.

Jon Shepherd said...

Matusz has often earned his salary. Not always, but often. McGee's arm is not like Matusz' arm. Matusz is a bit succeptible to the long ball in a way that conventional wisdom says would not work at Coors. A trade needs to be ideal for both parties.

Roger said...

Looks like Fister might not have passed the O's physical.

Roger said...

Rumors about Desmond Jennings being on the block now and Rays need a 1B. And that they had no faith in McGee's health. How about Matusz and Walker for Jennings? O's would have to take a chance on his knee but he's the kind of fielder and player overall that the O's love.

Jon Shepherd said...

Why would the Rays want Walker or an expensive LOOGY? Teams want more than another teams junk.

Matt Perez said...

I know you've built a model predicting free agent salaries with reasonable success. Have you built a model measuring potential trade returns that explain real-life trades?

I just find it interesting. Free agent salaries largely make sense and are able to be predicted. I find that trades often look lopsided. It's hard for me to say what teams would want in trades because I feel like teams make irrational and bad trades often. It seems like teams are willing to accept junk for quality often.

Jon Shepherd said...

I have no idea right now how to do a trade model because aspects can be so specific. With a free agent model industry value tends to emerge, but trades are a much more closed system and highly context dependent. Maybe I could start with offseason trades and see where that goes. In season seems incredibly volatile.

Roger said...

Jon, I think you're oversimplifying my trade recommendation without looking at specifics. Read the reports. Rays had no faith in McGee's health - Matusz has no health issues and still a lot of potential value. Every other team seems to make treasures out of the Orioles' junk. Further Jennings is another risk the Rays may not want to take because of injury issues. And they need a 1B and Walker is still a "prospect" who could at least return replacement value if not better - also with no health issues. All over the news it's "how could the Rockies possibly trade Dickerson for McGee". The Rockies preferred the risk of McGee's health over that of Dickerson. And when healthy McGee was more valuable to the Rockies than the Rays. But not the Rays do need a strong lefty in the pen and Jennings's salary is higher than Matusz's. They have an excess of OF since they signed Pearce and got Dickerson so Jennings is on the block. Plus the O's could throw in money.

Jon Shepherd said...

Re Matusz...last year Orioles had trade lined up for Matusz and a AAAA player who wound up being released a couple times last year. The trade fell apart because the other team requested the Orioles to put in a million on Matusz' salary. That should inform you a great deal about Matusz' value.

Jon Shepherd said...

Regarding Walker. He is a fringe prospect and the Rays have Bauer. Guys like Walker are not exactly a rarity.

Rays also have 29 other teams to entertain with Jennings with various needs. I just fail to see how this is compelling to the Rays. Add to that their front office has casually mentioned that they prefer not to deal in division because they assume having a team in their division resolving a situation puts them at a competitive disadvantage.

Jon Shepherd said...

Also...my focus is more on college player translations.