tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post2786150119005200302..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: The Final Move: Fister Or Jackson?Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-15693205292346414422016-01-31T10:22:08.192-05:002016-01-31T10:22:08.192-05:00Also...my focus is more on college player translat...Also...my focus is more on college player translations.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-66254178785559484922016-01-31T10:21:39.843-05:002016-01-31T10:21:39.843-05:00Regarding Walker. He is a fringe prospect and the ...Regarding Walker. He is a fringe prospect and the Rays have Bauer. Guys like Walker are not exactly a rarity.<br /><br />Rays also have 29 other teams to entertain with Jennings with various needs. I just fail to see how this is compelling to the Rays. Add to that their front office has casually mentioned that they prefer not to deal in division because they assume having a team in their division resolving a situation puts them at a competitive disadvantage.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-4362503103168626972016-01-31T10:19:17.110-05:002016-01-31T10:19:17.110-05:00Re Matusz...last year Orioles had trade lined up f...Re Matusz...last year Orioles had trade lined up for Matusz and a AAAA player who wound up being released a couple times last year. The trade fell apart because the other team requested the Orioles to put in a million on Matusz' salary. That should inform you a great deal about Matusz' value.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-21534520586469220112016-01-31T10:01:59.466-05:002016-01-31T10:01:59.466-05:00Jon, I think you're oversimplifying my trade r...Jon, I think you're oversimplifying my trade recommendation without looking at specifics. Read the reports. Rays had no faith in McGee's health - Matusz has no health issues and still a lot of potential value. Every other team seems to make treasures out of the Orioles' junk. Further Jennings is another risk the Rays may not want to take because of injury issues. And they need a 1B and Walker is still a "prospect" who could at least return replacement value if not better - also with no health issues. All over the news it's "how could the Rockies possibly trade Dickerson for McGee". The Rockies preferred the risk of McGee's health over that of Dickerson. And when healthy McGee was more valuable to the Rockies than the Rays. But not the Rays do need a strong lefty in the pen and Jennings's salary is higher than Matusz's. They have an excess of OF since they signed Pearce and got Dickerson so Jennings is on the block. Plus the O's could throw in money.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-56957852850312967662016-01-31T09:43:06.061-05:002016-01-31T09:43:06.061-05:00I have no idea right now how to do a trade model b...I have no idea right now how to do a trade model because aspects can be so specific. With a free agent model industry value tends to emerge, but trades are a much more closed system and highly context dependent. Maybe I could start with offseason trades and see where that goes. In season seems incredibly volatile.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-84629161312635015522016-01-31T09:35:54.024-05:002016-01-31T09:35:54.024-05:00I know you've built a model predicting free ag...I know you've built a model predicting free agent salaries with reasonable success. Have you built a model measuring potential trade returns that explain real-life trades?<br /><br />I just find it interesting. Free agent salaries largely make sense and are able to be predicted. I find that trades often look lopsided. It's hard for me to say what teams would want in trades because I feel like teams make irrational and bad trades often. It seems like teams are willing to accept junk for quality often.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-19251163164589322692016-01-31T08:52:52.586-05:002016-01-31T08:52:52.586-05:00Why would the Rays want Walker or an expensive LOO...Why would the Rays want Walker or an expensive LOOGY? Teams want more than another teams junk.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-21058395337877125732016-01-30T23:50:32.764-05:002016-01-30T23:50:32.764-05:00Rumors about Desmond Jennings being on the block n...Rumors about Desmond Jennings being on the block now and Rays need a 1B. And that they had no faith in McGee's health. How about Matusz and Walker for Jennings? O's would have to take a chance on his knee but he's the kind of fielder and player overall that the O's love.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-81835568402404042912016-01-30T09:08:00.659-05:002016-01-30T09:08:00.659-05:00Looks like Fister might not have passed the O'...Looks like Fister might not have passed the O's physical.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-38074039463441486802016-01-29T06:56:01.958-05:002016-01-29T06:56:01.958-05:00Matusz has often earned his salary. Not always, bu...Matusz has often earned his salary. Not always, but often. McGee's arm is not like Matusz' arm. Matusz is a bit succeptible to the long ball in a way that conventional wisdom says would not work at Coors. A trade needs to be ideal for both parties.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-11787396225008087522016-01-29T06:54:35.016-05:002016-01-29T06:54:35.016-05:00Fowler for 30?
Pearce is 33, has one decent seaso...Fowler for 30?<br /><br />Pearce is 33, has one decent season, and does not listen to coaches or training staff when injured. I can understand why that might make them seek out another player.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-86592543619768370802016-01-29T06:53:01.298-05:002016-01-29T06:53:01.298-05:00It was well covered that Orioles inquired on the C...It was well covered that Orioles inquired on the Colorado outfielders.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-48967828024128107372016-01-28T21:29:57.710-05:002016-01-28T21:29:57.710-05:00So here's an honest question: would we rather ...So here's an honest question: would we rather have Austin Jackson for 7, Fowler for 30 plus losing a pick, or Steve Flippin' Pearce for 4.75??<br />Why, in God's sweet name, did Dan make exactly zero effort to retain a very solid player?Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-16486041412992786632016-01-28T20:31:55.364-05:002016-01-28T20:31:55.364-05:00Fine - they are not far apart. But Wright is also...Fine - they are not far apart. But Wright is also better than Marquez and closer to major league ready. I do think Blackmon is better than Dickerson, but Dickerson would have been just fine and the O's could have added more. At any rate, we are not even hearing that the O's are interested in the prime players available for a fit. They must think they've done enough. I sure hope Reimold plays brilliantly and Bundy becomes an ace pretty darn quickly.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-37250363465190894582016-01-28T20:29:02.081-05:002016-01-28T20:29:02.081-05:00Matusz has never earned his salary. He is only hel...Matusz has never earned his salary. He is only held onto because they don't want to admit another failure.... Rowell, Snyder, Blobgood, Loewen, as Steven Bishop would say: "On and on"!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-78692403700735886302016-01-28T18:46:42.231-05:002016-01-28T18:46:42.231-05:00No, McGee and Matusz are not the same. No, McGee and Matusz are not the same. Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-60951115369428585152016-01-28T17:01:00.106-05:002016-01-28T17:01:00.106-05:00DAMN, Rays took Dickerson for McGee and minor leag...DAMN, Rays took Dickerson for McGee and minor leaguer. McGee is a replica of Matusz. Orioles could have had him for Matusz and Wright easy. What is wrong with DD!!!!!!Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-48114750274450176862016-01-28T14:59:09.096-05:002016-01-28T14:59:09.096-05:00Problem with Jackson, again, is that he's RH. ...Problem with Jackson, again, is that he's RH. Orioles are looking for LH RF. Still going with the Rockies trade. Also. I looked at the stats and he has declined over the last two year and hasn't shown much outside of DET. I mentioned a few articles back that I believe there is an effect on some players leaving their original team - they are just never the same. Don't see Jackson posting a .700+ OPS since he left DET.<br /><br />Also, Fister took a 7M one year deal (up to 12M with incentives). Does that change the recommendations in the analysis? If the O's could have gotten him for one year up to 12M, would he have been worth it?<br /><br />With regard to Mr. Negative up there, Matusz is one of the few Orioles who is actually earning his salary in WAA. There is value there. I only advocate trading him because he has value and his role is replaceable.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-43716321599249111962016-01-28T13:50:20.796-05:002016-01-28T13:50:20.796-05:00Sorry swap the fields... Kim's arm puts him in...Sorry swap the fields... Kim's arm puts him in LF.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-34977584623166519032016-01-28T13:48:29.893-05:002016-01-28T13:48:29.893-05:00Your Jackson analysis seems off. Steamer's pro...Your Jackson analysis seems off. Steamer's projection is using current depth chart data and projects him for only about 400 PA's. If the O's are addressing an everyday need and not a platoon bat then he would easily be more like 1.5 WAR/600. He just put up a 2 win season and has been worth 18 wins over six seasons and is still on the right side of 30. As a CF he could easily slot into LF with Kim in RF and in OPACY I would expect him to maintain around the league average bat.<br /><br />Now that the big FA's are signed I expect interest in him will ramp up and he is going to require more than a $7M pillow contract. I would think a one year deal will be in the $12M range, especially when a win is worth between $7M and $8M for multi-year contracts.<br /><br />I think he is a good investment and I think we can try out Worley and hope his health stays around long enough for a Wright/Wilson platoon to get us through the end of the season.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-35335564063768325002016-01-28T13:01:16.988-05:002016-01-28T13:01:16.988-05:00Welp. There goes Fister. Latos anyone?Welp. There goes Fister. Latos anyone?Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-43901123132177852262016-01-27T20:43:55.852-05:002016-01-27T20:43:55.852-05:00There needs to be at least 2 more moves! Billingsl...There needs to be at least 2 more moves! Billingsly or Latos. David murphy and/or Pedro Alvarez, done, trade Matusz for a bag of baseballs! Wright looked like a BPP his last few starts! Can we stop with the .196 and Adderal hating? Nope!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-66243507941515738782016-01-27T16:38:28.455-05:002016-01-27T16:38:28.455-05:00Now that the front office has extended Davis, they...Now that the front office has extended Davis, they might as well go all in and sign BOTH Fister and Jackson... since it's only a matter of money, and any marginal upgrade is still better than nothing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-92060337952925898322016-01-27T11:59:05.935-05:002016-01-27T11:59:05.935-05:00Very nice article, enjoyed it.
Although I agree co...Very nice article, enjoyed it.<br />Although I agree completely about Fister I wonder if the period in which your comps played doesn't skew that comparision a bit? <br />I agree with Roger that if we're getting another OF, might as well trade for a meaningful upgrade.<br />But re: pitching. Surely Fister isn't the o my FA worth a look?<br />I don't like Latos at all and I can't imagine Buck wanting him around, but what about looking through 6th and 7th starters around the league, or even Johnson or Billingsly or another candidate for a deal like Arroyo just signed.<br />Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-37647533928696608702016-01-27T11:10:39.167-05:002016-01-27T11:10:39.167-05:00Good article. Thanks for shooting holes in the Fi...Good article. Thanks for shooting holes in the Fister idea - he seems like the best option out there. I would have liked to have seen Latos included in the analysis since he is the youngest with the best projection and he is available and no one else seems to be willing to invite him in - could be had extra cheap.<br /><br />Jackson is a nice option - not sure why more teams are not in on him. Personally, I am stuck on Jon's suggestion of Rockies OFs right now. Jackson as a stop-gap is nice but I sure would prefer a long term solution and Blackmon/Dickerson would be just that. I also think that Matusz might be a part of any deal and the O's are telling people to wait until after the arb trial.<br /><br />The more we talk about it the better Wilson/Wright looks to me. I'd rather see an up-and-comer with no history rather than a down-and-outer with a statistical record.<br /><br />Also, can we stop with the Davis hating? "Dead money"? That's the future anyway - maybe he will be mini-Thome.....Rogernoreply@blogger.com