09 August 2012

Who Gets In? (8/9/2012)

Here is the expected records update using fWAR,

Team Wins Proj. Wins Total *
TEX  65 31 96 East
NYY  64 31 95 West
CHW  60 26 86 WC2
 OAK  60 25 85 1 GB
 DET  60 27 87 Central
 BAL  60 21 81 5 GB
 TBR  58 25 83 3 GB
 LAA  59 28 87 WC1
 BOS  55 26 81 5 GB
 TOR  53 24 77 9 GB
 CLE  51 22 73 13 GB
 SEA  51 22 73 13 GB
 MIN  49 23 72 14 GB
 KCR  47 24 71 16 GB

The Orioles have improved themselves by three wins since last time.

Let's hope for that upward trend.


Anonymous said...

I am a bit new to these statistical tools, but I understand the basic point of what you are doing. This tool seems to say that the Orioles will be the worst team in the American League over the rest of the season (eg. the least wins). Can you break down briefly why that is? Thanks.

Jon Shepherd said...

They have the worst offensive fWAR in baseball and a slightly below average stable of pitchers. The projection is using descriptive statistics, so an assumption is that their performance will be similar in gross performance as what has already happened and that projected performance will be context neutral.

This means the linear 'luck' they have had so far is not included here.

Nick J Faleris said...

And to jump ahead in this conversation to its usual destination, if the Orioles were to perform better in the last third of the season than they have up to this point, the system would show their projected wins increasing along the way (which, I believe, is what happened last week?).

Jon, let me know if I butchered that -- math is hard for me.

Jon Shepherd said...

Yes. The more the Orioles win above expected levels the higher the projected totals will be. Additionally, if the performance is better, the predicted performance will increase.