03 August 2012

2012 Playoffs: Who Gets In? (8/2/2012)

This is an update on the 2012 Playoff series.  There really has not been much of a difference with the second wild card still being up in the air and Detroit/Chicago shaping up as knock down drag out fight.  As a reminder, projected wins are based on the fWAR for each team.

Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * Change
NYY  61 34 95 East -2
TEX  60 35 95 West -3
CHW  57 29 86 Central +2
 LAA  57 32 89 WC1 +1
 OAK  56 28 84 wc2 +1
 BAL  55 23 78 6 GB +1
 DET  55 29 84 wc2 -2
 TBR  55 28 83 1 GB +2
 BOS  53 30 83 1 GB -2
 TOR  51 27 78 6 GB +3
 CLE  50 25 75 9 GB -6
 SEA  50 25 75 9 GB +6
 MIN  44 25 69 16 GB 0
 KCR  43 26 69 16 GB -3

Based on news reports, the Rays and Red Sox were entertaining the idea of being sellers.  Neither did.  That alleged decision may pay off well for one of those teams.


Bret said...

Is the most likely scenario really the O's going 23-34 over the next 57? Understand they have gotten fortunate, understand the run differential is bad but they are going to play like a 65 win team from here on out?

They have 6 against Seattle, 9 against Toronto (6 at home), 4 against KC at home and of the 9 with Boston 6 are at home. If they take care of business there they would have to totally collapse against NY, Texas, Detroit, Tampa to lose that many. Certainly I wouldn't be totally shocked but don't see 23 wins as the likely scenario.

Bret said...

By the way, Mason Williams done for year.

By my count that leaves NY with 2 prospects (Sanchez and Austin) worth worrying about.

Jon Shepherd said...

Williams' shoulder injury should not be a concern to his prospect status.

The Orioles' record has remained rather consistent in relation to being a 78 win team. So, eh.

PTCello said...

Jon, I think you and Nick are both ignoring some variable that isn't quantifiable.
The Orioles-and A's, for that matter-should be awful, but they aren't.
On the other hand, the Jays, Rays and Red Sox should be great, but they aren't.
The Mariners and A's should be bottom feeders, but the As are stellar, and the Ms are improving.
Your pre-season projection was for about 70 wins.
Like those who "...have not seen and yet Believe" isn't it obvious that something is carying the Orioles beyond their raw abilities?

Fatigue is going to catch up with the Orioles, and I doubt they'll qualify for the playoffs because their lack of depth will exacerbate their fatigue, and because Tigers/White Sox/Angels are much better.

The Orioles lost Hammel, Roberts, Thome, Markakis for a big chunk of time, Avery, Arrietta and Matuzs were unsuccesful, and have maintained a busy shuttle between home and the minors, and the waiver wire. but have managed to remain above .500 so far, despite all the negatives.

Surely 82-83 wins is reasonable... more reasonable than a collapse to only 23 more wins?

I know you hope I'm right, because you're a fan, too... can you show me why I'm wrong?


Jon Shepherd said...

Philip - I cannot prove whether you are wrong or right. Simply, the projection is based on previous performance. The Orioles great success has been largely built upon their record in one run games and extra inning games. Winning percentage in these typically is not related to overall winning percentage and is typically referred to as "luck." The point to using fWAR to project value (which in my posting ignores player movement via trade or DL) is to provide a neutral context to determine what is expected of the team.

Simply put, the offense looks to be the worst in baseball. The pitching is about average, but has been tailing downward over the past month. It is difficult to be so poor in these areas and win more games than you lose.

If there is some intangible that maintains the Orioles level of success in one run games and extra inning games, then maybe they keep the dream alive. However, this team looks like one that has been more fortunate than good.

As life long Oriole fans, the hope is that the team continues to avoid what the peripheral statistics suggest is an inevitable downfall.

Two months left. Game on.

philip Taggart said...

Is it worthwhile to redo your figures considering the personnel changes?
I didn't know who Nate Mclouth was until his first at bat.

Quintanilla seems to have done well.
Thome is a wash, it seems, though I'm glad such a nice guy still has a chance to play.
Are changes like these worth figuring?


Jon Shepherd said...

I really don't think the personnel changes mean much. Maybe a game or two for teams that really improved themselves. I would not expect much difference at all from the Orioles' additions.