28 May 2010

Shadow Draft: 2010 Game Plan

It’s just about that time of year when Camden Depot puts on its Shadow Draft hat and takes a stab at the Rule 4 Amateur Draft. As a reminder, Jon and I will be making a selection at each Orioles pick for the first ten rounds of this June’s draft. Thus far, Camden Depot has made fifteen selections (five in 2008 and increasing to ten in 2009). Here are the results thus far -- the current “Shadow System” (reminder, the system would include all O's picks except those that would have been made below -- so, for example, the Shadow System does not have Xavier Avery since Tim Melville was selected in the same slot):

Year (Round) - Player
2008 (1) - Brian Matusz, LHP, Univ. of San Diego
2008 (2) - Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS (MO)
2008 (3) - Roger Kieschnick, RF, Texas Tech
2008 (4) - Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA
2008 (5) - Brian Humphries, OF, Granite Hills HS (CA) (ATTENDING PEPPERDINE)
2009 (1) - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)
2009 (2) - Todd Glaesmann, OF, Midway HS (TX)
2009 (3) - Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville University
2009 (4) - Dustin Dickerson, 1B, Baylor Univ.
2009 (5) - Ian Krol, LHP, Neuqua Valley HS (IL)
2009 (6) - Brody Colvin, RHP, St. Thomas More HS (LA)
2009 (7) - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC)
2009 (8) - Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor Univ.
2009 (9) - Ryan Berry, RHP, Rice University
2009 (10)- Sam Dyson, RHP, Univ. of South Carolina (BACK TO SOU. CAROLINA/2010 ELIGIBLE)

After the jump, Jon and I will be laying-out what we think our strategy for the 2010 draft should be, focusing on areas of need and the best way to fill those while taking the best talent available..

Stotle’s Plan
This draft is heaviest on high school arms (RHP) and the big strategical question is how to best compensate for not having a 2nd Round pick this year. Looking at the Shadow System, the Shadow O’s need bats in a big way. Unfortunately, I don’t see a good fit for that in Round 1, which means we will need to get a little creative. My “wants” checklist for the draft is loosely set at the following:

2 MIF (best available; college/HS)
1 HS Catcher
1 Potential power bat at a corner (college/HS)
1 Potential CF (college/HS)
4 arms (mix upside HS and power college arms)

The Shadow Orioles are weak up-the-middle and there are some good opportunities for centerfielders at different points in the opening rounds. The HS catching crop is solid and should offer some value at multiple points, as well. Plenty of arms to pick from, so I expect to load-up on a couple in Rounds 7-10 (either power college arms profiling to relief of HS arms dropping for signability). The middle-infielders will be the biggest challenge, as both SS and 2B are thin. Still, I think there is the potential to grab at least one, and the goal should be to grab two if the opportunity is there. If not, the fall-back should be a second potential power corner bat. Of course, past pick 1:3, a lot will be determined by what players are available and we should not sacrifice quality simply to try and shoehorn picks from a particular group.

Crawdaddy’s Plan
I largely concur with Stotle's plan. Our system is in need of positional talent. A particular need is the middle infield and center field. As the draft appears to be rolling out, the smart money appears to be on pitching in the first round as opposed to positional talent. Waiting until next time before going too deep into it, I don't really buy into the Manny Machado evaluations that see him as a legit elite talent. The likely path will be focused on pitching in the first round and then seizing on any talent that may slip to rounds three to five due to signability. Although my belief is that you draft according to the talent available, my wants could be described as such:

3 MIF (which will be difficult in a thin class, at least one college level and one HS)
1 HS Catcher
1 Potential CF (college or HS)
4 arms (1-2 LHP college/HS, looking for falling talent)

Assuming that the Orioles draft budget is in the 9-10MM range, what happens in the first round will greatly affect what happens later. For instance, if the first round results in a 7-8MM signing, then the rest of the draft goes for slot. Drafting for slot could hurt our chances of securing any falling talent. I think this may not be all that bad as my feeling right now is that there will be a slightly lower amount of good high risk opportunity in this year's draft as opposed to last year. More than likely, what will happen is that we will be able to secure 4 arms (most or all right handed), 1 MIF, 1 HS catcher, and 3 OFs.

Monday (5/31) - Three Suggested Targets (1:3)
Tuesday (6/1) - Three Suggested Targets (3:3)
Wednesday (6/2) - Three Suggested Targets (4:3)
Thursday (6/3) - Three Suggested Targets (5:3)
Friday (6/4) - Quick Hits: Two Targets Each (6:3 - 10:3)

Monday Morning (6/7) - Dream Draft

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