04 May 2010

Season Wins Update: Week 5

The sweep against the Red Sox has caused all of the prediction models to respond positively. For the PECOTA model, this reduces the Orioles 2011 Draft pick lead from 11.2 to 7.3 games. Based on how the season should shake out, I think that PECOTA will probably take us out of the number one position around June 20th.

Click picture to make larger.

After the jump, playoff odds.

PECOTA now is more pessimistic than Camden Depot.

PECOTA: 0.03% chance of making playoffs.
Camden Depot: 0.08% chance of making playoffs.

Regardless, no one should be making October plans.

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