09 December 2009

Kevin Millwood is an Oriole

After a couple days of hashing it out. The Rangers and Orioles have agreed on a trade involving Kevin Millwood, with only the medicals needing approval.

Texas Rangers receive:
Chris Ray RHRP 2 years of service left, arbitration eligible (0.85MM in 2009)
46g 43.1ip 8.1k/9 4.8bb/9 2.01whip 6.14tRA

Baltimore Orioles receive:
Kevin Millwood (1/12MM)
31g 198.2ip 5.6k/9 3.2bb/9 1.34wip 5.61tRA

Some analysis and projections after the jump.

Rangers perspective
The Rangers will save about 7-8MM by making this deal. They have arguably excess pitching and no longer needed a backend arm like Millwood. They also could use another middle relief arm who may uptick to a solid setup option if he regains his past ability. Some pitchers take two years after Tommy John surgery to back into the fold. The extra money for the Rangers also opens up the possibility for them to sign Jermaine Dye to a contract. They have been linked to him for about a month now. This might be the chip that gets their DH (hopefully DH) problems solved.

Orioles Perspective
The team has been mentioning how they are in need of a veteran arm that will stabilize the staff and prevent blowups from crushing their relief corps. Millwood kind of answers that, but not really. He is basically a more expensive version of Jeremy Guthrie. Both are backend arms who have benefit at times from luck. His success last season seems suspiciously linked to an unsustainable BABIP. Normalize that to his career line and it seems that he would be looking at a low to mid 5 era in 2010. Such work may indeed give the pen some rest, but it would most like result in the Orioles not offering arbitration. A good season would translate into a deal at the deadline or an arbitration offer declined and a B level compensation in return. The worst case scenario would be for him to remember how he pitched nearly a decade ago and the Orioles resign him to a three year deal. I guess we will see.

My prediction?
30g 172ip 5.7k/9 3.3bb/9 5.24tRA
Maybe 10-12.

1 comment:

Jon Shepherd said...

Actually, it looks like the grand move is more like:

Millwood for Ray and Harden

No money is being saved. I guess that becomes the Orioles question . . . would you prefer having Harden over Millwood?