The post will focus on a baseline that was suggested by a scout. So,
yes, the opinion of a single professional is how we will value Jones'
worth here. What is that worth? It was posited that Adam Jones would
be worth a top 25 player, a top 50 player, and a top 100 player. In
other words, I would translate this as meaning a A-, B+ and B level
player. One final way of looking at it, a 60, a 56, and a 52. That
means that some in this business think very highly of Adam Jones. We at
the Depot have not thought as highly of Jones in the past, but what
matters is who values him the most.
This third part will focus on packages from NL West teams.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tyler Skaggs, RHP
Matt Davidson, 1B/3B
A.J. Pollock, LF
The is likely just a simple exercise. Chris Young mans center for the Diamondbacks. He is, of course, a good center fielder. Backing him up now is Gerrard Parra, who should be a starting centerfielder on a first division club or a starting left fielder on a second division club. Adam Jones is just not a player of need for them.
Colorado Rockies
Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Dexter Fowler, CF
Kent Mathes, LF
Dexter Fowler is the Rockies' starting CF. His defense is less than impressive and Jones might be an upgrade. Jones' offensive production is also slightly greater than what Fowler is capable of. This package delivers a top notch pitcher, a replacement in center field with some potential upside, and a left fielder who has a slight chance to turn into something special. Pomeranz was acquired from the Indians and has a 2 slot ceiling. He throws in the low 90s with a plus curveball. He spent some time in the Majors last year, but could be served with some time in AAA. However, he may be one of those lefties whose stuff is so good and polished that the Minors are just not enough to challenge him to get better. This is similar to the issue with Matusz as he can take care of AAA hitters, but has troubles at the Major League level. Fowler has three years of control left and profiles as Adam Jones light. He does not have the raw power Jones has, but is able to use his speed on the base paths to work extra base hits. Kent Mathes is a prospect who has had to deal with reworking his swing and staying healthy over the past few years. He comes into AA as a 25 yo. There is a good upside there.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Nate Eovaldi, RHP
Allen Webster, RHP
Garrett Gould, RHP
Matt Kemp. No Benjamins.
San Diego Padres
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Jedd Gyorko, 3B
Casey Kelly, RHP
They like Cameron Maybin and also have a money issue.
San Francisco Giants
Gary Brown, CF
Tommy Joseph, C
Ehire Adrianza, SS
The Giants need someone like Jones badly. He could vastly improve their outfield. However, Brian Sabean has proven reluctant to deal what remains of his elite prospects, Gary Brown. Brown is a couple years off, but profiles as an average to above average center fielder with a solid offensive profile. The Giants appear to be so enamored with Brown that they may not see the need to get the 'now' value Jones would provide and instead opt for putting Brown in the fast lane to the Majors. It may be that the Giants are more comfortable dealing out Brandon Belt than Gary Brown. Joseph has a plus plus power, but is a bit too aggressive at the plate. The Giants have Posey and Susac in the system behind the plate and Belt at first, so Joseph may not be as highly valued. If Belt was dealt then Francisco Peguera would replace Joseph here. Adrianza would provide a plus defensive option at short stop for the Orioles. His bat is iffy, but he could be useful if Machado has to shift to third.
Conclusion
This is the division of center fielders. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres are set up the middle for a while. The Rockies could improve themselves, but have slightly less production at about half the price in Dexter Fowler. The Giants would be the team to improve the most from dealing for Adam Jones, but the question comes down to whether or not they would be willing to deal Gary Brown or Brandon Belt. However, doing so would largely remove young cheap talent from their 40 man roster. In the past, Sabean has not been afraid to go after the "proven" veteran instead of holding on to the prospect. In light of that, they are probably the only team that might be interested in dealing for Jones in this division and that interest may not be incredibly high as the Giants might believe that Gary Brown could be big league ready soon.
29 December 2011
28 December 2011
Expanded Roster: Was Earl Weaver correct about the 3 Run HR?
Sometimes, Camden Depot expands the rosters
beyond Nick Faleris and Jon Shepherd. This enables our audience to
speak directly outside of the comment box as well as shine a light on
other Orioles writers. This article is from Danny Black.
Was Earl Weaver correct
about the 3 Run HR?
By Danny Black
Note: This piece was completed
before the release of Mike Fast’s Baseball Prospectus article
“Spinning Yarn” which examines the hit and run.
Earl Weaver often talked about his
preference for the 3 run home run. In his book “Weaver on
Strategy”, Chapter Two is titled “The Offense, Praised Be the
Three-Run Homer!” Weaver talks about his approach to offense,
hitting, and his love of 3R Homers. The question I wanted to examine
is weather or not there is a correlation between 3R Homers and wins.
The Orioles have not won more than 69 games over the last 5 years. I
have chosen this time period to look at the success (or lack thereof)
of the 3R HR.
The following list shows the total
number of 3R HR hit by The Orioles and their ML rank:
Year 3R HR HIT ML RK WINS
2007 21 12t 69
2008 17 15t 68
2009 19 10t 64
2010 9 29t 66
2011 21 9 69
On its surface it would appear that
there is no direct correlation to 3R HR totals and total wins. The
Orioles went from 29th in the Majors in 3R HRs in 2010 to
9th in the majors in 3R HRs in 2011 but only won 3
additional games. Also, in 2008 The Orioles went from middle of the
league to 2009 when they were in the top 10 in 3R HRs. The result was
4 fewer wins with the additional HRs. So is it time to cancel the
bronze statue for Earl? Not necessarily. If hitting 3R HRs is good,
giving them up must be bad, right Earl?
Below is the same chart as above but
showing 3R HR allowed:
Year 3R HR ALLOWED ML RK WINS
2007 23 9t 69
2008 25 2 68
2009 26 2T 64
2010 31 1 66
2011 27 2 69
Finally a category The Orioles are in
the top of the league: 3R HR allowed! This chart is fascinating.
Consistently in the top 10 in HR against, there is a correlation
between those numbers and Orioles wins. Over the 5 year period of
2007-2011 The Orioles have a net of -47 in 3R HRs while never once
hitting more than they allowed. For comparison, The Yankees have a
net of +29 and The Red Sox have a net of +28 over the same time
frame.
Is Earl vindicated? Maybe. Clearly
hitting 3R HRs alone does not guarantee success, but avoiding them
avoiding them certainly helps.
26 December 2011
Trading Adam Jones: NL Central Edition
The post will focus on a baseline that was suggested by a scout. So,
yes, the opinion of a single professional is how we will value Jones'
worth here. What is that worth? It was posited that Adam Jones would
be worth a top 25 player, a top 50 player, and a top 100 player. In
other words, I would translate this as meaning a A-, B+ and B level
player. One final way of looking at it, a 60, a 56, and a 52. That
means that some in this business think very highly of Adam Jones. We at
the Depot have not thought as highly of Jones in the past, but what
matters is who values him the most.
This second part will focus on packages from NL Central teams. The first piece discussed NL East teams.
Chicago Cubs
Brett Jackson, CF
Trey McNutt, RHP
Josh Vitters, 3B
There is more value to this package than at first glance. I view Jackson similarly to Jones a few years back, but slightly underrated likely in how others view that comparison. Jackson could be a first division center fielder or he could be a fringe average left fielder. McNutt looks like a top end relief arm. He has move his fastball into the upper 90s in short stints and a plus slider. If he can improve his change up, then he might be a mid-rotational arm. Josh Vitters falls into what I call the Shea Hillenbrand mold. He has a poor ability to walk, but he does a good job meeting the ball. For me he profiles as a guy who will deliver a few solid average seasons with a couple 300/340/440 seasons ideally at third, but maybe at first or right. Regardless, I do not think Theo Epstein has any interest in trading for Adam Jones. Epstein needs a young group of players to build upon and someone like Jackson is that player. McNutt and Vitters are small pieces that Epstein has been willing in the past to hand out. I'm not sure the best use of Jones is pulling back a potential replacement, a backend bullpen arm, and a potentially average third baseman or a poor first baseman.
Cincinnati Reds
Billy Hamilton, SS/CF
Zach Cozart, SS/3B
Todd Frazier, 3B/LF
The Mat Latos deal removed a great deal of talent from the Reds system that would interest the Orioles. Hamilton would be the prize here. He is an 80 runner with raw hitting and fielding skills. He profiles as a first division shortstop or could be moved to center field. Hamilton needs to work on improving his skills, so that he can take advantage of his tool box. He would likely break into the Majors in 2014. Cozart could be the Orioles starting third basemen in 2012. He has good hands and an accurate arm and his hitting should be sufficient. His true value is likely as a first division utility infielder, but he should make a career as a second division third baseman. Frazier could also be the Orioles starting third baseman in 2012 or he could be in left field or even fill in at second. He has spent some time in the past year as a utility infielder. Frazier has been one of those players whose plus power plays well in the minors, but has questions surrounding it in the Majors. I used to think highly of him, but Nick would chide me commenting on Frazier's arm bar (a similar issue Nick had with Gordan Beckham). Frazier may never hit well enough to be a full time player in the Majors, perhaps being better suited as being a platoon player against lefties. This deal would help fill out the team a bit with more utlity/fringe second division types. It all basically hinges on your evaluation of Billy Hamilton.
Milwaukee Brewers
Wily Peralta, RHP
Scooter Gennett, 2B
Logan Schafer, CF
This is a poor man's version of the Cincinnati Reds deal. Peralta profiles as a top end closer or a potential 2/3 starting pitcher. He throws in the low 90s and primarily works off his fastball. He has average, perhaps less than average, offerings in his change up and slider. He had a successful stint in AAA last year and could open the year in Baltimore if given the chance. Scooter Gennett is a low minors second baseman. He reminds me a little bit of Brian Roberts and like Brian Roberts, Scooter will likely need to prove himself at every rung on the ladder. He has less speed than Roberts and is showing power at an earlier age. Schafer has lost a great deal of time in his minor league career due to injuries. However, he has shown the ability to play center and show above average power.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, RHP
Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B
Robbie Grossman, LF/RF
Click. I imagine that will be what Dan Duquette would hear upon mentioning Taillon. The Pirates do not need Adam Jones, so this is an exercise that likely is not realistic. Adrew McCutcheon is an very good center fielder. He will also be a very good left fielder when Starling Marte is promoted. Maybe the Pirates would want Jones to form an excellent defensive outfield of Marte, McCutcheon, and Jones, but that seems like overdoing the three center fielder idea. I do not think they would entertain Marte's inclusion here along with Taillon's. You could probably flip the two and maybe get traction. We are big fans of Jameson Taillon and openly wished for him to fall to the Orioles instead of Manny Machado. Taillon throws an easy plus fastball in the high 90s, a plus table drop curve, and a plus slider. He is a monster. Grossman profiles as an average to above average corner outfielder. He is competent defensively and shows a good understanding of the strike zone. There are some questions as to whether his 2011 performance was more a matter of repeating a level than actually improving to such a remarkable degree.
St. Louis Cardinals
Shelby Miller, RHP
Oscar Taveras, LF/RF
Zach Cox, 2B/3B
This is an interesting collection of players. Miller is as sure a bet to be a star as a pitching prospect can be (that will likely be the reason why the Cardinals would never consider having him included in a deal). He commands his fastball in the mid 90s with workable curve and change. Without his inclusion, I do not see how the Orioles could get a good return for Jones. Taveras holds a lot of promise and could be an excellent player as he matures. He makes great contact and has good secondary power. He is likely to play in AA this year as a 20 year old. Cox would provide sure mid-level value. He will likely profile as an average or above average bat at second or third with value coming from plus contact.
Conclusion
Pittsburgh has the least need for Adam Jones as they sport two above average centerfielders on their 40 man roster. Chicago is a club that is likely to be short on want as they will very much like to have a player like Brett Jackson who could provide production similar to Adam Jones for a lower cost and a long time frame (if he pans out). The Cardinals simply are not going to give away a prospect who is a short distance from the Majors and has ace potential. Although Jones would be of use, the cost seems too high for the Cardinals. Milwaukee could use Jones to help mitigate the loss of Prince Fielder. However, Nyjer Morgan and Logan Schafer are two internal options that will be cheaper and not impact the club in the long term as losing prospects might. Milaukee is dealing with a short window to bring in a World Series Championship, so a move here might make the most sense to them. For the Orioles, the package is underwhelming. It is, more or less, Peralta and odds and ends. The club needs more value here or a higher ceiling value. A mid-season deal involving both Peralta and Jungman/Bradley would be more suitable, but likely will be asking for too much for only a season and a half of Jones. That leaves Cincinnati who could use Jones, but would they leverage so many of their assets for 2012? Hamilton will not factor into their 2012 or 2013 plans and may in fact never be more than a loose set of impressive tools. Cozart and Frazier would be useful to their 2012 effort, but the Reds may be able to find other ways to fill them in with other players. It is possible they could add a Robert Andino and Drew Stubbs side deal in there. I could see a Cincinnati deal being workable on both sides, but prefer the options discussed in the NL East post.
This second part will focus on packages from NL Central teams. The first piece discussed NL East teams.
Brett Jackson, CF
Trey McNutt, RHP
Josh Vitters, 3B
There is more value to this package than at first glance. I view Jackson similarly to Jones a few years back, but slightly underrated likely in how others view that comparison. Jackson could be a first division center fielder or he could be a fringe average left fielder. McNutt looks like a top end relief arm. He has move his fastball into the upper 90s in short stints and a plus slider. If he can improve his change up, then he might be a mid-rotational arm. Josh Vitters falls into what I call the Shea Hillenbrand mold. He has a poor ability to walk, but he does a good job meeting the ball. For me he profiles as a guy who will deliver a few solid average seasons with a couple 300/340/440 seasons ideally at third, but maybe at first or right. Regardless, I do not think Theo Epstein has any interest in trading for Adam Jones. Epstein needs a young group of players to build upon and someone like Jackson is that player. McNutt and Vitters are small pieces that Epstein has been willing in the past to hand out. I'm not sure the best use of Jones is pulling back a potential replacement, a backend bullpen arm, and a potentially average third baseman or a poor first baseman.
Cincinnati Reds
Billy Hamilton, SS/CF
Zach Cozart, SS/3B
Todd Frazier, 3B/LF
The Mat Latos deal removed a great deal of talent from the Reds system that would interest the Orioles. Hamilton would be the prize here. He is an 80 runner with raw hitting and fielding skills. He profiles as a first division shortstop or could be moved to center field. Hamilton needs to work on improving his skills, so that he can take advantage of his tool box. He would likely break into the Majors in 2014. Cozart could be the Orioles starting third basemen in 2012. He has good hands and an accurate arm and his hitting should be sufficient. His true value is likely as a first division utility infielder, but he should make a career as a second division third baseman. Frazier could also be the Orioles starting third baseman in 2012 or he could be in left field or even fill in at second. He has spent some time in the past year as a utility infielder. Frazier has been one of those players whose plus power plays well in the minors, but has questions surrounding it in the Majors. I used to think highly of him, but Nick would chide me commenting on Frazier's arm bar (a similar issue Nick had with Gordan Beckham). Frazier may never hit well enough to be a full time player in the Majors, perhaps being better suited as being a platoon player against lefties. This deal would help fill out the team a bit with more utlity/fringe second division types. It all basically hinges on your evaluation of Billy Hamilton.
Milwaukee Brewers
Wily Peralta, RHP
Scooter Gennett, 2B
Logan Schafer, CF
This is a poor man's version of the Cincinnati Reds deal. Peralta profiles as a top end closer or a potential 2/3 starting pitcher. He throws in the low 90s and primarily works off his fastball. He has average, perhaps less than average, offerings in his change up and slider. He had a successful stint in AAA last year and could open the year in Baltimore if given the chance. Scooter Gennett is a low minors second baseman. He reminds me a little bit of Brian Roberts and like Brian Roberts, Scooter will likely need to prove himself at every rung on the ladder. He has less speed than Roberts and is showing power at an earlier age. Schafer has lost a great deal of time in his minor league career due to injuries. However, he has shown the ability to play center and show above average power.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, RHP
Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B
Robbie Grossman, LF/RF
Click. I imagine that will be what Dan Duquette would hear upon mentioning Taillon. The Pirates do not need Adam Jones, so this is an exercise that likely is not realistic. Adrew McCutcheon is an very good center fielder. He will also be a very good left fielder when Starling Marte is promoted. Maybe the Pirates would want Jones to form an excellent defensive outfield of Marte, McCutcheon, and Jones, but that seems like overdoing the three center fielder idea. I do not think they would entertain Marte's inclusion here along with Taillon's. You could probably flip the two and maybe get traction. We are big fans of Jameson Taillon and openly wished for him to fall to the Orioles instead of Manny Machado. Taillon throws an easy plus fastball in the high 90s, a plus table drop curve, and a plus slider. He is a monster. Grossman profiles as an average to above average corner outfielder. He is competent defensively and shows a good understanding of the strike zone. There are some questions as to whether his 2011 performance was more a matter of repeating a level than actually improving to such a remarkable degree.
St. Louis Cardinals
Shelby Miller, RHP
Oscar Taveras, LF/RF
Zach Cox, 2B/3B
This is an interesting collection of players. Miller is as sure a bet to be a star as a pitching prospect can be (that will likely be the reason why the Cardinals would never consider having him included in a deal). He commands his fastball in the mid 90s with workable curve and change. Without his inclusion, I do not see how the Orioles could get a good return for Jones. Taveras holds a lot of promise and could be an excellent player as he matures. He makes great contact and has good secondary power. He is likely to play in AA this year as a 20 year old. Cox would provide sure mid-level value. He will likely profile as an average or above average bat at second or third with value coming from plus contact.
Conclusion
Pittsburgh has the least need for Adam Jones as they sport two above average centerfielders on their 40 man roster. Chicago is a club that is likely to be short on want as they will very much like to have a player like Brett Jackson who could provide production similar to Adam Jones for a lower cost and a long time frame (if he pans out). The Cardinals simply are not going to give away a prospect who is a short distance from the Majors and has ace potential. Although Jones would be of use, the cost seems too high for the Cardinals. Milwaukee could use Jones to help mitigate the loss of Prince Fielder. However, Nyjer Morgan and Logan Schafer are two internal options that will be cheaper and not impact the club in the long term as losing prospects might. Milaukee is dealing with a short window to bring in a World Series Championship, so a move here might make the most sense to them. For the Orioles, the package is underwhelming. It is, more or less, Peralta and odds and ends. The club needs more value here or a higher ceiling value. A mid-season deal involving both Peralta and Jungman/Bradley would be more suitable, but likely will be asking for too much for only a season and a half of Jones. That leaves Cincinnati who could use Jones, but would they leverage so many of their assets for 2012? Hamilton will not factor into their 2012 or 2013 plans and may in fact never be more than a loose set of impressive tools. Cozart and Frazier would be useful to their 2012 effort, but the Reds may be able to find other ways to fill them in with other players. It is possible they could add a Robert Andino and Drew Stubbs side deal in there. I could see a Cincinnati deal being workable on both sides, but prefer the options discussed in the NL East post.
25 December 2011
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