Depot Retro: Effect of Defense on Run Production to Maintain Average Performance (Part 1 of 2: Infield)

The following article is a piece we published in January of last year at one of our old web addresses.  As we settle back into our old home here, occasionally we will reintroduce some of those pieces that still have some degree of relevance.  The first I want to post is a study I did assessing what would be average value for each position based on 2008 levels of offensive and defensive performance.

 January 19, 2009

A player's worth can be defined as the sum of offensive and defensive production. In other words, a player adds to his value by contributing to put runs on the scoreboard and to prevent the other team from scoring. Most work has been accomplished on the offensive side of this equation. This is primarily due to the majority of offense being well characterized by single events, such as a home run or a walk. Defense has been more difficult to analyze as a simple single event requires a good deal of qualification. For instance, a play in the outfield needs to be qualified as to the type of hit (fly ball, line drive, ground ball), where the ball fell, where the fielder started, what is the accepted range for that position, and the resulting effects (as in did a runner tag up or was the batter able to stretch the hit into a double). This requires meticulous analysis and, therefore, most of these methods are proprietary metrics that are often not shared with the general public. The ones that are shared are typically well encapsulated, so the whole process is a black box where you have to trust the statistician. My own transparent method uses the Hardball Times's "balls in zone" data, which entrusts them as knowing what is considered in a fielder's zone.

Recent events have made it obvious that teams are changing the way they evaluate a player's worth. This current offseason, many of have been surprised at how few players were offered arbitration. Pat Burrell made a shade over 14MM last season and now will be earning 16MM total over two seasons in Tampa. This is a bit shocking in that in years past, Burrell would be expected to receive a deal worth about 48MM over 4 years. Now, it seems teams are more strongly considering defense (though the current recession cannot be ignored as a possible contributing factor in the decreasing free agent salaries). An interesting side note in Burrell's worth is that FanGraphs pegs his worth as 11.6MM last year as the Phillies's left fielder. If you shift his position to a full time DH, he was worth 12.5MM, which may show that DHs are currently undervalued in this market. Now, understanding that defense is probably more of a quantifiable contribution toward characterizing the worth of a player, this work aims to determine what levels of offense are required to achieve average production and to present in a quick and easy-to-digest format. For instance, if a left fielder makes 24 less plays than the average left fielder (~20 runs), how well does he have to hit to rate as an average player? How much must his offense compensate for his inability to field relative to his peers? This article will be broken down into two parts. This first segment will focus on the infield and the second will concern itself with the outfield and catcher.

Expansion Draft Side Project

As you may have remember, I have been toying around with an expansion team concept that I began two years ago. Prior to the draft, here is the shadow expansion team's minor league system.


Here is the minor league system top 20 prospects so far:
1. Aroldis Chapman P A-
2. Roger Keischnick OF B-
3. Ryan Flaherty INF B-
4. Max Stassi C B-
5. Jordan Danks OF C+
6. Matt Davidson 3B C+
7. Madison Younginer P C+
8. Miguel Jean OF C+
9. Todd Glaessman OF C+
10. DJ Mitchell P C+
11. Ian Krol P C
12. Clayton Cook P C
13. Scott Gorgen P C
14. Chris Herrman C/1B/OF C
15. Adrian Nieto C C
16. Kyle Jenson OF C
17. Graham Stoneburner P C
18. Kendall Volz P C
19. Luis Domoromo RF C
20. Carlos Perez P C

As you can see the system lacks middle infield and some polished pitching. With these ideas I entered the draft.  Since this is the first year the team plays, the pick remains as the final selection in each round.  The picks after the jump.

2010 Orioles Elias Update

The graph below shows how each of our veterans are doing with respect to their estimated Elias Free Agent Classification as determined by MLB Trade Rumors.  As you can see, both Miguel Tejada and Kevin Millwood have decreased from their initial value this season.  That said, neither are doing well enough to offer arbitration.

Most managers in a single season for baseball: Part I - AL

With Juan Samuel reaching his 10th game and managerial veterans like Bobby Valentine and Eric Wedge casting their shadow over Camden Yards, the Orioles might do something that has been done fewer times in Major League Baseball than perfect games pitched. In fact, it is something the franchise has done before, but as the St. Louis Browns. This feat? To have at least three managers rack up 10 decisions or more in a single season.

Today is the first part of a two part series looking at the oddity of single seasons with multi-manager teams. Some of these events were caused by illnesses, extended interim managers, unique ideas, or an impatient front office.

After the jump, we will start of with the Baltimore Orioles history . . .

BORT Chat Monday at 8pm: Draft Review and Things

Case for claiming Jake Fox

Susan Slusser tweeted last night that the Oakland Athletics can no longer afford to be patient with Jake Fox and are designating him for assignment.  This is a move to take him off the 40 man roster, so every other team in baseball will have a shot at him.  The Orioles have the first right of claim.  The Athletics need to do this because Fox is out of options.  His has been somewhat miserable at the plate this year with a 591 OPS.  He has played left field, catcher, and backed up a few games at third base.  In the minors he has also had some experience with first base.

What I am suggesting is pretty simple . . . the Orioles need to claim Fox and designate Garrett Atkins.  At this point, Atkins has not shown any improvement at the plate and looks stiff over at first base.  Taken along with his three year precipitous decline, I see absolutely no upside to keeping him.  He cannot hit and he cannot take the field.  Jake Fox is actually hitting better than Atkins.  He has also shown good power as well.  He has shown some ability to play catcher and first base, which would be very valuable to the Orioles.  Fox is also right handed just like Atkins, so he fills that role as well.  At 27, Fox is not an up and coming prospect, but he could, maybe, just maybe, have some upside in either his bat or his ability to catch.  These are unknowns to explore.  Everything about Atkins we know and none of it has been very useful.

Now, I am not going to kick and scream if the Orioles pass on Fox, but it would be disappointing.  Why?  Because I think it will be a sign of embracing a player, Atkins, not because of his abilities, but because of his salary.  The cost is sunk and no one is going to take him off the Orioles' hands.  It should be time to own up to that and take chances on the waiver wire.