Expansion Draft Side Project

As you may have remember, I have been toying around with an expansion team concept that I began two years ago. Prior to the draft, here is the shadow expansion team's minor league system.


Here is the minor league system top 20 prospects so far:
1. Aroldis Chapman P A-
2. Roger Keischnick OF B-
3. Ryan Flaherty INF B-
4. Max Stassi C B-
5. Jordan Danks OF C+
6. Matt Davidson 3B C+
7. Madison Younginer P C+
8. Miguel Jean OF C+
9. Todd Glaessman OF C+
10. DJ Mitchell P C+
11. Ian Krol P C
12. Clayton Cook P C
13. Scott Gorgen P C
14. Chris Herrman C/1B/OF C
15. Adrian Nieto C C
16. Kyle Jenson OF C
17. Graham Stoneburner P C
18. Kendall Volz P C
19. Luis Domoromo RF C
20. Carlos Perez P C

As you can see the system lacks middle infield and some polished pitching. With these ideas I entered the draft.  Since this is the first year the team plays, the pick remains as the final selection in each round.  The picks after the jump.

Revisting my Shadow Team

A few weeks back I shared an expansion shadow team. The opening day roster was listed here.

How are things shaping up? Ok. WAR suggests they would be 6-8. The team has been buoyed by Felipe Lopez, Juan Uribe, and Ryan Church on offense. Rick Ankiel, switched to center after Crisp's injury, has provided nearly average worth there. The only other hitter of note is Bobby Crosby who has been swinging the bat well in a backup role. The pitching staff really only has Justin Ducherrer and Colby Lewis providing any positive worth.

As I thought before, this team is set to finish in the mid 60s. With the O's woes, they may be challenging them for the top pick in the draft. I still think the O's rebound somewhat. It has been a tough year so far.

Shadow Expansion: 2010 MLB Roster

After the jump I list my shadow 2010 MLB roster using the setup I laid out in an earlier post.


I set aside 60MM (spending 56.5MM) of the 70MM budget for the MLB roster. Without a good idea on how to run an expansion draft, I decided to just ignore it and go the route of free agency. The following team is not very good. Projected performance suggests this is a 66.3 win team. Only three players are signed to multi-year deals: Ryota Igarashi, Jason Marquis, and Aroldis Chapman (who will be given a chance to break camp with the team, but will most likely be in the minors). The fluidity of the team allows for the chance of type B compensation picks to arise as well as permits the team to easily discard players. At this stage in the franchise, some sort of an interesting product should be on the field . . . but that product should be flexible and easy to turn around to meet specific needs when they arise. A similar situation will also most likely present itself next offseason. The first season with a long term outlook at free agency would probably occur after the 2011 season. All players with mil are invited to camp as a non-roster invite. The fifth slot in the rotation will essentially be an open audition.

C Rod Barajas 1MM
1 Ryan Garko 0.75MM
2 Felipe Lopez 3MM
3 Juan Uribe 3.8MM
S Adam Everett 1.8MM
L Rick Ankiel 3.5MM
C Coco Crisp 6MM
R Ryan Church 1.7MM
D Russell Branyan 2.5MM

C Josh Bard 0.4MM mil
I Bobby Crosby 1MM
I Dallas McPherson 0.4MM mil
O Josh Anderson 0.4MM mil

S Jon Garland 5.8MM
S Tim Redding 0.5MM mil
S Justin Descherrer 2.5MM
S Jason Marquis 2/15MM
S Colby Lewis 2/6MM
R Josh Fogg 0.5MM mil
R Brian Bass 0.5MM mil
R Kiko Calero 0.5MM mil
R Jeff Weaver 0.5MM mil
R Wil Ohman 0.5MM mil
S Ryota Igarashi 2/4MM
C Matt Capps 3.5MM

FA – Aroldis Chapman 6/30MM

During the season, I will use the WAR prediction spreadsheets to predict how well this team would actually do. In June, the team will act with a 10MM draft budget that also must be used for international signings. Drafting at the end of the round again will probably result in 6-7MM in the rule 4 draft and the rest spent in the Caribbean. Anyway, I imagine the 2011 draft will be fun with this team.

Shadow Expansion: Intro, 2008 Draft, and 2009 Draft

This is something I began on the side two years ago to see how well I could construct an organization. The idea is basically to act like you are in charge of an expansion team minus the expansion draft (which would be a bit too tedious to figure out a good approximate). Anyway, I drafted at the ends of the rounds in 2008 and 2009 as an expansion team is likely to do. This year would mark the first year a team would be fielded.

Anyway, this may be of no interest to you, but as an exercise . . . I figure I might as well just start posting these things for posterity. After the jump . . . basic rules and the minor league system as it stands.


Basic rules:
1. The team in question has been placed in the AL West.
2. Budget follows as 2008 (7.5MM), 2009 (10.5MM), and 2010 (70MM). Budgets cover MLB squad and all amateur signing bonuses for that year. After 2010, budget increases 5% each year unless that is found to be unrealistic.
3. Free agents can only be signed if it seems like a reasonable signing. For instance, it would be unlikely that Johnny Damon would choose an expansion team over the Tigers. Additional money is required to sign a player if said player chose a team based on competitive interest.
4. Trades initiated require for a trade to have happened and similar commodities are in the organization. If a real trade goes down that involves my own player, I can chose whether or not to accept. If my salary for the player is greater than the real salary of the player . . . extra players will need to be included or monetary considerations.

2008 Draft
This was probably the first year I paid attention to the draft and it appears quite obvious looking back that this is the first year I paid attention to the draft. I took charge for the first 10 rounds and then acquiesced the final rounds to the San Francisco Giants selections. Of this group, I am pleased with Flaherty, Keishnick, and Mitchell. Danks and Cook are about where I thought they would be. Gorgen and Nieto has disappointed me. I think I totally bought into the hype I heard about Thompson. Domoromo looks very promising, but Perez is very much a work in progress.

Players of note include:
Rd1 Ryan Flaherty INF B-
Rd2 Roger Keischnick OF B-
Rd3 Scott Gorgen P C
Rd4 Adrian Nieto C C
Rd5 Jordan Danks OF C+
Rd7 DJ Mitchell P C+
Rd8 Clayton Cook P C
Int Luis Domoromo RF not ranked, but promising
Int Carlos Perez P not ranked, but promising

Misses:
Rd6 Brett Thompson P not ranked

2009 Draft
The 2009 draft looks far more promising, but this may be due to me being more familiar with the players involved. The draft group looks like a lot of high potential, but low probability signings. It is risky. I'm very pleased with this draft and am not disappointed yet.

Players of note include:
Rd1 Matt Davidson 3B C+
Rd2 Todd Glaessman OF C+
Rd3 Max Stassi C B-
Rd4 Ian Krol P C
Rd5 Chris Herrman C/3B C
Rd6 Madison Younginer P C+
Rd8 Kendall Volz P not ranked
Rd9 Kyle Jenson OF C
Rd10 Graham Stoneburner P C
Int Miguel Jean OF C+

Misses:
Too soon.

Top 20 Prospects
This might be the thinnest MiLB system in baseball. There are certainly several individuals who could blow up big or become worthless. Beyond Flaherty, there is really no middle infield depth. It is a major weakness in the system and one that is often poorly solved in trade or free agency.

1. Roger Keischnick OF B-
2. Ryan Flaherty INF B-
3. Max Stassi C B-
4. Jordan Danks OF C+
5. Matt Davidson 3B C+
6. Madison Younginer P C+
7. Miguel Jean OF C+
8. Todd Glaessman OF C+
9. DJ Mitchell P C+
10. Ian Krol P C
11. Clayton Cook P C
12. Scott Gorgen P C
13. Chris Herrman C/1B/OF C
14. Adrian Nieto C C
15. Kyle Jenson OF C
16. Graham Stoneburner P C
17. Kendall Volz P
18. Luis Domoromo RF
19. Carlos Perez P
20. Isaac Hess P