A-Rod and Oriole?

Ken Rosenthal, Buster Olney, etc, etc, etc . . . they all bring up the Orioles as a potential landing zone for Alex Rodriguez. They talk about his adoration of Cal Ripken, his desire to play in a less intense environment, and the money that Peter Angelos could send his way. I believe they write these things because they need some filler. He is not coming here. Why?

1. The Yankees are not as ignorant as many Yankee fans seem to be.
The only reason why the Yanks are sniffing 500 ball and not 470 or 460 is because of their star third baseman. Yes, the guy who has won an MVP for them. The guy who has been just as successful in the post season as the rest of the Yankees these past few years. The guy Torre and Jeter go out of their way to be indifferent to in the media. He will go down as one of the best ballplayers in history. Him, Bonds, and Clemens. We are sure in an era where we hate our stars. So, yeah, life without A-rod and his subsidized salary is far worse than life with him. In fact, it is even better. The front office has begun the machinations to extend his contract, a necessity in order to keep the Rangers footing the bill.

2. Who else could the Yanks get?
Maybe Troy Glaus. Maybe. There is no one else worth a damn on the trade or free agent market at thirdbase.

3. Angelos has trouble paying 15 million a year for a player.
A-Rod is going to maybe high 20s or low 30s. Mark my words. He could be the first 35 million dollar a year player. This is where the Yanks have leverage. With the Texas deal and an extension, the Yanks can save now and later. They can use the seven million a year Texas gives them and apply that to the extension. Maybe four more years at 25+7 = 32MM. He'll be 38 at the end. Seems like a Yankee deal to me. And . . . I think that is conservative.

4. Melvin Mora
Our worst and saddest reason. He has a no trade. He is also our third best hit, by far, this year. We have other needs.

Well, it isn't going to happen. I'd love an A-Rod and Tejada combination on the left side of the infield, but the money seems too much. We have Bedard coming up and he'll be worth about 20 million a year. Roberts is worth 12 or so. Any free agents will be expensive. We are going to have to become a smart $150 million dollar team to keep this team together and compete. We'll have to stop giving stupid money out to guys whose peak years are average . . . like Gibbons. Or give three year deals to players who are experiencing a downfall in production (read: Huff . . . yeah, I was wrong about him).

Anyway, let's move on from A-Rod. Click here for the rest of the story.

Underperforming Orioles

As we all know, sometimes things just fall apart for a long period of time and then come back as strong as ever. There is a term for this and it is regression to the mean. So . . . who is the Oriole most likely to regress to the mean and improve from their 1st half play? Well, JC Bradbury has developed a tool called PrOPS that works pretty well.

Jay Gibbons.
You probably already knew that. Gibbons is having a historically bad season for himself. He is barely looking worse than he did three years ago when sutures had yet to dissolve in his wrist affecting his bat momentum. So what is behind his current wretched play? You may laugh, but wretched, wretched bad luck. His BA/BIP is .247, which is quite low. Couple that with a line drive percentage of 19.2 and it makes no sense. Gibbons, hitting .212, should actually be hitting about .260 with a few more homeruns and doubles. All of his peripherals suggest this should be a bad year for him, but it is not as bad as we have seen. Of course, his K rate has increased and his walk rate . . . well, it has always been awful. If he gets a few hits through and feels a bit chipper, the K should drop and his peripherals suggest an average season. If he keeps his line drive percent up I expect a large rebound.

1st Half:
.212/.266/.351
PrOPS:
.263/.313/.404

Ramon Hernandez
Although not as extreme as Gibbons, he has also be victimized by poor luck. His rates are worse than his recent seasons, but nothing suggests he is this bad. His BA/BIP is too low, but his power seems to have left the stadium. Hopefully, he hasn't become a different hitter.

1st Half:
.236/.332/.358
PrOPS:
.270/.363/.408
That is a good line for a catcher.

Corey Patterson
Yes, he is that bad. Click here for the rest of the story.

Below the Surface: Minor League Spotlight

Pedro Beato, SP, Delmarva Shorebirds

A promising high school pitcher who had really only his fastball. It ran in the low 90s and scouts love that. Beato ran into some arm trouble, specifically Tommy John surgery, and was a 32nd round pick by the Mets in '05. A draft and follow guy, he eluded the Mets attempts to sign him and landed in the 2006 supplemental first round, 32nd overall to the Orioles. He had fully recovered at this point and began working on a curve and a changeup . . . both are incredibly raw.

2006 saw him sign quickly (for a cool 1MM) and assigned to the Aberdeen Ironbirds. He threw 57 innings. He had some strong outings and fell apart in others. He threw 8 Ks/9 and walked 3.6 batters per 9. Hitters averaged 7.4 hits per nine. The numbers suggest a powerful pitcher with average control. His ERA was 3.63, which is deceptive. He is a groundball pitcher, inducing nearly 50% of his hits as grounders (most likely due to an overpowering fastball with slight control problems . . . 19 and 20 year olds will have trouble hitting that . . . 22 and 23 year olds won't) resulting in nearly a 1/3 of the total runs against him to be unearned. His "true" ERA should be around 4, which is a solid prospect. Not Mark Prior, but certainly someone who would become a strong setup man or a solid number three pitcher.

2007 is seeing him go deeper into games and throwing a lot more innings. He has already hit 89 innings, which suggests that the Orioles may go to a six man squad or end his season early. Typically, you do not want to have your pitcher go too far beyond a 30 innings increase in inings from the previous year. If they treat Beato like Erbe, they'll give him about five more outings and shut him down. Of course, he is not pitching like Erbe. Beato has dropped to 7.2 K/9, increased to 3.9 BB/9, and increased to 9 hits/inning. This is actually fine though. He is young and it looks like he has progressed at the same rate as the rest of the talent. His Ks are down and his BBs are up for two reasons: 1) better control and 2) smarter hitters. His hit rate is going up because he is: 1) facing better competition and 2) striking less people out. His ERA is at 3.54, but should be around 3.80. He is still a groundball pitcher, but single A defenses are slightly better.

So what does this all mean?
He has not injured himself, which is good. He did make some progress in learning his ware. He has not shown the amazing ability of Brandon Erbe. So . . . to me he looks like a potential fourth starter or a setup man if he develops a second pitch. He could be a number 2 if he fully develops both of his secondary pitches. I don't see that happening. I figure he'll be a number 3 when it is all said and done . . . but it is hard to see that from here. He has a great arm . . . he just needs to hone it. We should expect him to break out next year in Frederick or the following year in Bowie. If he does well in Frederick in '08 . . . look for him as a September callup in '09. If he breaks out in Bowie in '09, he'll surface midseason in '10. Click here for the rest of the story.