10 July 2007

Underperforming Orioles

As we all know, sometimes things just fall apart for a long period of time and then come back as strong as ever. There is a term for this and it is regression to the mean. So . . . who is the Oriole most likely to regress to the mean and improve from their 1st half play? Well, JC Bradbury has developed a tool called PrOPS that works pretty well.

Jay Gibbons.
You probably already knew that. Gibbons is having a historically bad season for himself. He is barely looking worse than he did three years ago when sutures had yet to dissolve in his wrist affecting his bat momentum. So what is behind his current wretched play? You may laugh, but wretched, wretched bad luck. His BA/BIP is .247, which is quite low. Couple that with a line drive percentage of 19.2 and it makes no sense. Gibbons, hitting .212, should actually be hitting about .260 with a few more homeruns and doubles. All of his peripherals suggest this should be a bad year for him, but it is not as bad as we have seen. Of course, his K rate has increased and his walk rate . . . well, it has always been awful. If he gets a few hits through and feels a bit chipper, the K should drop and his peripherals suggest an average season. If he keeps his line drive percent up I expect a large rebound.

1st Half:

Ramon Hernandez
Although not as extreme as Gibbons, he has also be victimized by poor luck. His rates are worse than his recent seasons, but nothing suggests he is this bad. His BA/BIP is too low, but his power seems to have left the stadium. Hopefully, he hasn't become a different hitter.

1st Half:
That is a good line for a catcher.

Corey Patterson
Yes, he is that bad.

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