02 July 2007

So you are saying there is still a chance?

Clay Davenport over at Baseball Prospectus updated him postseason odds table. He takes existing data from this year and then runs a Monte Carlo simulation 1 million times to determine odds of a particular team for making the playoffs. For the Orioles . . . they have a 0.58% chance of winning the division and a 1.9% chance of garnering the wild card. Hurray!

As late as June 1st, they were calculated as having a 1 in 4 chance of making it. Then the team remembered they do not have enough talent. June was a cruel month.

To me it looks like it will be a Bosox, Angels, Tigers, and Indians (with a believable chance the A's could knock of one of those last two). I'd only place sure money on the Bosox though.

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