What's Next For Trey Mancini?

There's a lot to like about Trey Mancini. Mancini never made any top-100 lists on his climb up the Orioles' minor league system, but he hit at every stop along the way. The big question mark: Would it stick when he reached the majors? So far, it has.

When Mancini first appeared, at the end of the 2016 season, he homered in his second at-bat. A couple days later, in his second start at DH, he homered again. He did the same thing two days later, in his third start -- three starts, five hits, three homers. Not bad. He only got one more chance to start in 2016, but he made his first, brief act in the major leagues memorable.

Mancini made the club to start the 2017 season, and he won the battle over Hyun Soo Kim for regular work in left field. It helped that he tied a major league mark by homering seven times in his first 12 career games. Mancini also saw an extended stretch at first base in June and early July while Chris Davis was on the disabled list.

At the end of the year, Mancini stepped to the plate 586 times and posted a slash line of .293/.338/.488 and a wRC+ of 117. By Baseball-Reference's version of wins above replacement, he was worth 2.2 wins. By FanGraphs' version, he was worth 1.8 wins. That performance helped Mancini finish third in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, behind Aaron Judge and Andrew Benintendi. That's pretty good company.

Mancini deserves some credit for not being a complete disaster in the outfield. With Davis and Mark Trumbo on the roster and clogging the 1B/DH spots when they're healthy, Mancini has nowhere to fit on the roster unless he's playing in the outfield. That was a challenge, because he exclusively played first base in the minors. To my untrained scouting eye, Mancini looked somewhere between below average and average in left field in 2017. He doesn't have a strong arm and didn't always get the best jumps on batted balls, but he typically made the routine plays.

By Defensive Runs Saved, Mancini finished -1 in his 729 innings in left field. He fared worse in Ultimate Zone Rating, with a UZR/150 of -7.3. Neither of these numbers is far from definitive, and the more innings Mancini plays, the more it'll reveal about his true outfield abilities. Still, his ceiling as an outfielder is basically "he's fine," so most of his value will have to come from his bat.

Fortunately, Mancini did hit. Among all qualified left fielders last season (meaning players who played some left field), Mancini's 117 wRC+ was ninth best. He didn't hit that well while actually playing left field, but the important thing is that he hit well, period:

as LF: 101 wRC+ (343 PA)
as 1B: 152 wRC+ (157 PA)
as DH: 116 wRC+ (73 PA)

Let's look a little more in-depth into Mancini's hitting. In 2017, he was pretty fortunate on balls in play falling in for hits. His .352 BABIP was 12th best in the majors among qualified hitters, which is pretty high for someone who isn't a fast runner and who didn't hit the ball extremely hard. Mancini's percentage of hard-hit balls, 34.1%, tied for 68th in the majors. The average exit velocity on his batted balls was 88.6 mph (t-106th, min. 30 batted balls). For a power hitter type, Mancini also hit the ball on the ground more than half of the time (51%, 16th highest in the majors). Since ground balls are more likely to fall in for hits than balls hit in the air, that may partially explain the high BABIP.

Still, maybe what's more important for Mancini is how he continues to adjust to how pitchers attacked him in the second half of the season. Pitchers didn't change much from month to month in the types of pitches they threw to Mancini, but they did change the location. (Camden Chat noticed this as well last June.)

In the first half, pitchers were not afraid to challenge Mancini in the middle of the zone:

In the second half, that changed:

It's not a drastic change, but there are more pitches down and away and less in the middle and up. Combined with this change and some worse luck on balls in play, Mancini was not as successful in the second half:

1st half: 135 wRC+, .385 BABIP, 36.7 Hard%, 15.4 Soft%
2nd half: 101 wRC+, .325 BABIP, 31.8 Hard%, 23.2 Soft%

While Mancini made worse contact, one positive is that he walked about the same (5.7 BB% vs. 5.6) while striking out less (26.4 K% vs. 21.2).

So, to which of those versions is Mancini closer? The Orioles and Mancini clearly hope it's the first one, and that Mancini has another gear. Mancini is not going to become some wizard with the glove, so any gains are almost certainly going to have to come from the offensive end.

Mancini knows he must keep improving and adjusting. During a spring training interview, Mancini answered a question from Jim Palmer on what he worked on during the offseason. Mancini said:

"I think I had a lot of wasted movement in my swing last year. So in the offseason, I focused on keeping my head in the same place, which is back more, and still having a forward movement with my step. But I try to keep my head in the same spot and I tried to eliminate the leg kick. I thought it was a little unnecessary and kind of made my head move a little. So those are two kind of minor things that I tried to fine-tune this offseason."

Are things different? You decide. The first GIF here is from a Mancini home run from last August:

And here's a Mancini bomb during spring training:

The differences aren't that noticeable. Mancini's leg kick does seem a little more understated, and his head seems to move less. He also appears to be standing a little less upright now. But it's not like Mancini said he was going to overhaul his swing, and he didn't need to. Anything different here is minor.

In 18 spring training plate appearances, Mancini is slashing .333/.444/.733. It's probably better that Mancini is hitting well now than struggling, but it's unknown whether any of the minor changes above will lead to improvement during the regular season. Pitchers are going to keep looking for new ways to attack Mancini, and he'll need to come up with solutions. He seems up to the challenge.

Stats via FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Savant, and Brooks Baseball. Photo via Keith Allison.

Orioles Could Use Neil Walker

When the Orioles picked up Danny Valencia and Pedro Alvarez, the common refrain amongst observers of the Orioles was just where exactly would Valencia fit.  The idea for some would be that if Mark Trumbo would magically disappear that Valencia and Alvarez could form a formidable one-two designated hitter punch.  For instance, Valencia can punish southpaws fairly well (136 wRC+ for career) while Alvarez hits right handers at a 117 wRC+ career clip.  As a fringe, righty hitting designated hitter, it is not incredibly surprising how little interest Pedro Alvarez generates from other MLB clubs as well as how little he played last year.  What is surprising is that Valencia, a poor fielder who only really hits left handers, has seen extensive playing time the past two seasons. 

While Valencia is a poor fielder, he can fill in first, second, third, and corner outfield positions in a pinch.  That is a terrible solution long term, but if your starter needs a breather or you need time to find a serviceable alternative when a starter goes down, then Valencia helps provide a barely adequate solution.  Alvarez, on the other hand, can hold a bat.  He used to play third base, but saw his athleticism vanish in Pittsburgh.  He has attempted to play first base, but he lacked the footwork and touch.  Last year was an experiment in the outfield and was something we just don't want to discuss.  Whereas Valencia can be a solution in a pinch, Alvarez simply does not offer that.

So, the question is whether or not the club can improve upon what it has in Alvarez.  This rather unseemly off-season has provided the Orioles with a potential option.  That option would be in the vein of Valencia.  A player who can perform in the field to a varying degree and provide value as a left handed option in the lineup or off the bench.  His name is Neil Walker.

This might be a surprise.  Last year, Neil Walker played under a qualifying offer, making 17.2 MM.  This year, it is the beginning of March and he remains a free agent.  Walker's market appears to be dwindling as fewer teams have any true need for a second baseman or even a third baseman.  This might make Walker more open to spending the 2018 season in a bit of flux, position-wise. 

Now, Neil Walker is not a good utility defender.  He has performed slightly below average at second base and slightly below average at third base.  In fact, he has spent more time as a catcher (168 games) in his professional career than he has in the outfield (0 games).  He is a switch hitter, but is really only proficient as a left handed hitter with a 122 wRC+ line.  In other words, his offensive value is similar to Alvarez', but he can actually be used in the field.

Neil Walker's Last Five

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2013	.251	.339	.418	114
2014	.271	.342	.467	126
2015	.269	.328	.427	106
2016	.282	.347	.476	121
2017	.265	.362	.439	111

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/5/2018.

Last year, the Orioles' player with the highest on base percentage who met qualified status was Jonathan Schoop along with Trey Mancini with a .338 mark.  Walker's .362 was much higher.  Over the past five years, his worst performance was a .328 offering that would have  settled in behind those two, but be ahead of Adam Jones' .322 mark.  Needless to say, Walker does something repeatedly in the most recent past that no one else on the club seems to be doing regularly, getting on base.

Walker could be used as a leadoff man in a similar fashion as Seth Smith.  In fact, he basically is Seth Smith.  Both run about the same (~26.5 ft/s).  Both get on base around the same rate.  Both have similar power production.  Neither are considered special defenders.  Walker though can play at more restrictive positions.  Walker is also three years younger.  It is why BORAS projected Smith as a non-roster invite while Walker was put at a 2/22 value.  Walker will not see that money, it seems, as this offseason appears to have marked a point where the value of players is now somehow different.

What this might mean is provide the Orioles with an opportunity.  Walker gives the club a strong platoon option at designated hitter.  He also can be used as depth for third base or second base.  As such, he checks more boxes than Alvarez does.  In addition to that, a multi-year deal could also provide the Orioles with a respectable cover for 2019 if Manny Machado leaves.  Walker can fill in at second or third with Tim Beckham and Schoop shifting around.

In other words, perhaps 2018 would see Neil Walker as the Orioles poor man's version of prime Ben Zobrist.  And, perhaps, in 2019 he offers a baseline solution to what certainly appears will be a need.

Crystal Ball: Year 1 Post Angelos

This off season and spring training has been a slow one for baseball and the Baltimore Orioles.  It appears that MLB at large decided to do what the Orioles have been doing under Dan Duquette: wait out the market.  Waiting out the market, particularly when so many others are waiting out the market, brings on the anxiety and a rush for explanation.  Adding to that unease, is that the Orioles currently stand about 30 to 40 MM under where their payroll sat last year.

There were reasons though to think that a constriction of payroll was coming.  One, the Orioles did not make the post-season and did not get to taste the extra revenue that brings.  Two, MASN ratings decreased (26% decrease from 2016) and, we believe, that cable rates were renegotiated with providers this past off season.  Three, the club was already highly leveraging their revenue to the extent that it was unique.  Four, I had some peripheral interactions that led me to think that the club was perhaps reorganizing allocation of assets for sale of the franchise.

That last point has had the most travel with people discussing it.  The Angelos ownership group gives some giddiness with the thought that a major player will come in, buy the team, increase payroll, and the club will win out.  I personally think the assumptions at play there are a bit too optimistic.  When one looks at payroll leverage, the average club invests 46% of their revenue into their payroll.  Mets, Indians, and Giants are good examples of teams with vastly different revenues who all settle in there.  Half of baseball falls within about ten percent of that rate.

Last year, the Marlins were leveraged 58% into payroll, which was fourth most.  After the roster exodus, the club now sits at 42%.  While the meager revenue stream in Miami (compared to MLB in general) makes that 86 MM payroll look lean, it actually is a common carrying amount of leverage.  Some point to the Red Sox after John Henry bought the club.  His first payroll saw a decrease from 65% payroll leverage to 54% leverage (which was league average at that point in time).

Really the only team that has bounced that trend was the cash flushed Magic Johnson et al. purchase of the cash poor and inept McCourt ownership of the Los Angeles Dodgers where they more than doubled payroll.  One would argue that there are major differences there.  One, the Dodgers had an absurdly wonderful new television deal coming into play and, two, did not have the crippling debt that the McCourts had.

While the Orioles have not been a stranger to debt, running into some accounting troubles a few years back, they are thought not to be struggling under the debts accrued by the club.  However, there are concerns that a re-consolidation purchase under John Angelos would be the best case scenario and, yet, still have major issues with respect to buying out the partners that would be leaving and needing replacements.  Any new group would likely be met with a hard purchase from the Angelos group and that being coupled with an uncertain value for MASN (due to arbitration and court issues) and a market that is somewhat undermined with the presence of the bigger and more cash flushed DC metropolitan area being controlled by the Nationals.

What is going for the team is that the local fan base is heavily engaged in the club with the team often finding itself in the top ten, if not top five, in tv ratings.  That is somewhat lessened by the small media market when that rating figure is translated into actual households.  In the end, a strong argument can be made that the Orioles are a small market team and that argument is validated by how MLB views the Orioles within revenue sharing.

What direction this all points us in is that the Orioles, when ownership transitions, will likely see a reduction in payroll.  Last year the Orioles leveraged their revenue around 65% (2nd overall).  With the reduction in payroll this year, that figure now sits at 53% (7th overall).  There is some indication that the club will make one more signing and could well wind up around 57%.  Anyway, if we assume that the team will drop down to a league average payroll, we are looked at a figure of around 114 MM.

To get to 114 MM in 2019, it will actually be quite easy.  The team stands now at 134 MM.  The departures of Adam Jones and Manny Machado would take the payroll down to 101 MM.  Zach Britton would be another significant departure of 12 MM.  Get rid of those free agents and others (e.g., Brad Brach, Chris Tillman) and figure in potential arbitration raises, you get a potential payroll of about 94 to 110 MM for 2019.

I think it would be reasonable to think that a sale this year or in the off-season would result in a freezing of the roster for 2019.  2020 would then present the likely scenario for what the new ownership group would be able to afford.  History would dictate something in the neighborhood of 105-125 MM, which is slightly below where the club is now.

Colby Rasmus is a Perfectly Average Baseball Player

"Average" gets a bad rap in sports. Saying someone is average seems to imply that, actually, they are not just not good, they are bad. Being average means you don't do anything well, you're not exciting, and a team can, and should, have someone better. Being average, though, is far from being bad. In fact, one of the hallmarks of the Orioles run since 2012 was that the team avoided having bad players. They didn't have a ton of great players, necessarily, but the team was stocked with average to good talent that avoided having several spots on the field manned by below average scrubs.

This changed in 2017, as just six position players put up more than 1 fWAR, matching 2015 as the low mark since 2012. Not only did the Orioles not have a great deal of high end performances last season, they also had more low end performances than we are used to seeing.

Enter Colby Rasmus, left handed hitting outfielder, who signed a minor league deal prior to the start of Spring Training. Rasmus made headlines after walking away from the Tampa Bay Rays (and, at the time, baseball in general) last season, despite posting an outstanding 132 WRC+ in 37 games. Rasmus has had an odd career, going from one of the most highly touted prospects in baseball to being a bust and then becoming a solid regular before growing a crazy beard and quitting the game. The idea of him being a five tool player never quite came to pass, but Rasmus has had a pretty...well, average career.

Generally, 2 WAR is considered average. Rasmus has played nine seasons in the big leagues and has generated 19.7 fWAR. That's an (wait for it) average of 2.2 fWAR per year. WRC+ normalizes production and weights it to 100, with players being sorted based on how much better or worse they are than the average. Rasmus' career WRC+? 103. wOBA, or weighted on base average, is an attempt to measure overall value and the average player will have around a .320 mark. Colby Rasmus has a .324 wOBA in his career. How about defense? I know defensive stats have issues and shouldn't necessarily be relied upon fully, but Rasmus has a 2.9 UZR/150 games played mark in his career. An average player puts up between 0 and 5 UZR.

This is, honestly, kind of remarkable. Since 2009, the only players to have similar offensive stats and basically the same WAR output as Rasmus are Austin Jackson, Russell Martin, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Jhonny Peralta, and Yunel Escobar. I don't know about you, but if I was asked to name some average big league baseball players that would be a pretty comprehensive list. None of those players are great, though like Rasmus some have had great seasons, but in general they have been solid, more or less every day players over the past decade.

It's not often you see a player as average as Colby Rasmus. If he's not the Platonic ideal of averageness, he's certainly up there. And this, I think, is where the problem may lie. While being an average player isn't bad, Orioles fans were almost certainly hoping for something more. Not only that, Rasmus hasn't played a full slate of games since 2012 and is an obvious platoon candidate. Given the revolving corner outfield door since Nick Markakis left after the 2014 season, it seems more than a little underwhelming that the starting right fielder on Opening Day could well be Rasmus.

It's far from a lock that Rasmus even makes the team, of course. He's competing against multiple guys with similar skill sets, Austin Hays may force his way onto the roster, and there's every indication that the O's will keep at least two Rule 5 picks counting Anthony Santander. There's also the (lessening by the day) possibility that the team goes out and signs someone like Carlos Gonzalez. If Rasmus does make the team, however, there's a good chance he puts up some pretty average numbers, and that's just fine!

Leadoff Hitters In The Buck Showalter Era

Colby Rasmus has served as the Orioles' leadoff hitter a couple times in spring training, including in yesterday's matchup against the Cardinals. While it's unexpected that Rasmus ends up as the O's regular leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching during the season -- Buck Showalter has said he's trying to get Rasmus more at-bats right now, and it's not a guarantee that Rasmus makes the team just yet -- it's far from impossible.

Rasmus has a career 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which is good but not great. He also has an on-base percentage of just .318 against southpaws, and that's not what teams want out of their leadoff hitters. Without going too deep, I'll just note that it's now both sound logic and generally accepted that one of the best hitters on a team should bat in the top lineup spot.

Still, Showalter has a tendency to do... interesting things with his lineups. He'll bat someone fast there, just because, or simply try something based on match-ups or feel. Here's a list from the Baseball-Reference Play Index that shows O's players from 2011-2017 (Showalter's full seasons in Baltimore) with 10 or more plate appearances in the leadoff spot:

Results

Rk	Player	Split	From	To	G	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Nick Markakis	Batting 1st	2012	2014	236	1086	982	.294	.353	.402	.755
2	Adam Jones	Batting 1st	2014	2017	135	610	563	.281	.320	.471	.791
3	Nate McLouth	Batting 1st	2012	2013	131	605	539	.262	.336	.399	.735
4	Manny Machado	Batting 1st	2013	2016	120	541	487	.296	.362	.497	.859
5	Brian Roberts	Batting 1st	2011	2013	73	330	301	.213	.266	.332	.598
6	J.J. Hardy	Batting 1st	2011	2017	66	294	277	.267	.294	.523	.817
7	Joey Rickard	Batting 1st	2016	2017	71	289	267	.240	.289	.345	.634
8	Seth Smith	Batting 1st	2017	2017	56	235	212	.264	.332	.448	.780
9	Robert Andino	Batting 1st	2011	2012	46	207	188	.218	.276	.298	.574
10	Tim Beckham	Batting 1st	2017	2017	41	194	181	.265	.314	.448	.762
11	Nolan Reimold	Batting 1st	2011	2016	49	190	172	.250	.321	.453	.775
12	Alejandro De Aza	Batting 1st	2014	2015	22	95	89	.258	.305	.449	.755
13	Endy Chavez	Batting 1st	2012	2012	24	92	87	.149	.178	.207	.385
14	Matt Angle	Batting 1st	2011	2011	18	78	63	.190	.320	.286	.606
15	Xavier Avery	Batting 1st	2012	2012	15	70	63	.254	.309	.349	.658
16	Felix Pie	Batting 1st	2011	2011	13	47	46	.217	.234	.239	.473
17	Craig Gentry	Batting 1st	2017	2017	26	35	30	.200	.286	.333	.619
18	Gerardo Parra	Batting 1st	2015	2015	7	32	31	.161	.188	.194	.381
19	David Lough	Batting 1st	2014	2015	12	29	26	.154	.241	.308	.549
20	Everth Cabrera	Batting 1st	2015	2015	5	25	23	.304	.320	.304	.624
21	Hyun Soo Kim	Batting 1st	2016	2017	8	21	17	.176	.333	.176	.510
22	Austin Hays	Batting 1st	2017	2017	5	21	20	.150	.190	.150	.340
23	Jonathan Schoop	Batting 1st	2014	2017	5	18	16	.063	.167	.063	.229
24	Ryan Flaherty	Batting 1st	2012	2017	11	17	17	.176	.176	.529	.706
25	Trey Mancini	Batting 1st	2017	2017	5	13	13	.385	.385	.846	1.231
Rk	Player	Split	From	To	G	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
26	Jemile Weeks	Batting 1st	2014	2014	3	13	11	.273	.273	.455	.727
27	Steve Pearce	Batting 1st	2012	2016	5	12	9	.556	.667	1.222	1.889

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/1/2018.

First, Endy Chavez! Felix Pie! Matt Angle! Xavier Avery! Everth Cabrera! Jemile Weeks! And second, don't forget that the 2011 Orioles were awful (69-93, -152 run differential) before things turned around suddenly in 2012.

It's easy to look back and laugh, but sometimes these decisions worked! In May of 2012, Ryan Flaherty led off a game against the Rangers with a home run. The next two batters, J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis, also homered, as the O's became the first team to start a game with three straight homers since the Brewers in 2007. (The Diamondbacks also pulled off that feat against Max Scherzer, somehow, this past season.) That doesn't make it smart, necessarily, but it also shows some of the uninspiring options Showalter has had to choose from.

This isn't just a Showalter thing, of course; some teams occasionally use less than ideal options in the leadoff spot. Some teams just don't have high OBP players, while others do and at times choose to fill out the lineup card differently. But as teams become smarter, they're using better options in the first two spots in the lineup and refusing to put players there who make more outs.

Is Tim Beckham that guy for the Orioles? If he puts up anything close to the 130 wRC+ he posted after joining the O's last season, it'll be an easy decision to keep him there. But if he's not the guy, then who is? Perhaps Trey Mancini and his .338 OBP from last season? With so many high power, low OBP hitters filling the lineup, there just aren't that many good options. And that could open the door for Rasmus, or Alex Presley, or someone else.

Should Pedro Alvarez Just Be The DH?

The Orioles can never have enough 1B/DH types, so it's no surprise that Pedro Alvarez is back with the O's on a minor league deal. Let's have some fun with it.

Imagine for a moment that Mark Trumbo didn't have two years and $26 million left on his contract. If you had to pick between Trumbo and Alvarez as to who'd have the better numbers as the O's DH in 2018, who would you choose? I asked this very question in a Twitter poll on Sunday. You may be surprised with the results:

Who has the better numbers with a full year at DH?

— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) February 25, 2018

It's not so crazy, though! The two players' Steamer and ZiPS projections are close: 105 and 101 wRC+, respectively, for Trumbo, and 112 (!) and 98 for Alvarez. Trumbo is 32 years old and has a career 106 wRC+; Alvarez is 31 and has a career 107 wRC+.

As Jon and others have discussed numerous times on this site, the knock on Trumbo is that he's a bad outfielder who struggles when he's forced to DH. He could play first base on another team, but the Orioles have Chris Davis locked into that position. That means Trumbo is likely to see the bulk of his at-bats as a DH. In his playing career, that hasn't gone well:

Trumbo career DH: 88 wRC+
Trumbo career non-DH: 112 wRC+

Have things been better recently? No. Trumbo has been with the Orioles since 2016, and in his two seasons in Baltimore, he has a 81 wRC+ as a DH (713 PA) and a 133 wRC+ as a position player (554 PA). (For reference, the MLB average DH had a wRC+ of 94 last year.)

For Alvarez, the opposite has been the case. He's performed much better as a DH:

Alvarez career DH: 124 wRC+
Alvarez career non-DH: 107 wRC+

Most of Alvarez's DH work has come with the Orioles, and his DH numbers look even better when counting just the 2016 and 2017 seasons: 129 wRC+ (360 PA). In his 31 non-DH plate appearances, Alvarez has a 73 wRC+.

Career wise, Trumbo has more than 1,000 plate appearances as a DH while Alvarez has just over 400, so the case is stronger that Trumbo hits worse as a DH than it is that Alvarez is much better as a DH. Also, of Alvarez's 410 plate appearances with the O's, 365 have come against right-handed pitching, while just 45 have been against lefties. In his career, Alvarez has a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching but a wRC+ of only 70 against southpaws. Trumbo, meanwhile, has not been used as a platoon bat.

So what matters more: Trumbo's shortcomings as a DH, or Alvarez's struggles against left-handed pitching? Probably Trumbo's DH issues, especially since, if Alvarez were the main DH option, the O's could opt to use a right-handed hitter at DH when the O's face a lefty. (That could give some regulars a rest from playing the field that day.) It's tough to get around carrying a DH who's not going to hit as well.

Back to reality. Trumbo does indeed have $26 million left on his deal, and if another team wanted to take him and his salary off the O's hands, it maybe would have happened already. (And it looks less likely now that someone like Logan Morrison had to settle for a one-year, $6.5 million deal with a 2019 vesting option.) Still, if the O's could find a taker for Trumbo's remaining salary (or even, improbably, eat some of it) and then use Alvarez as the main DH, would you do it?

Gausman is Finding His Inner Tanaka

Kevin Gausman is a stud.  That is how he has been viewed for a long time.  He looked like a polished strong mid-rotation arm coming out of LSU.  In the minors, he overpowered batters with his fastball command and splitter.  In the majors, there are moments or streaks where his fastball and splitter are riding hot while he also drops a fairly respectable curve or slider (depending on the year).  However, those moments and streaks are not common enough for Gausman to be mentioned as a top of the rotation arm or even a mid-rotation arm for any club with serious playoff consideration.

This issue with Gausman is not a new concern.  His breaking balls were always more about potential than where the stood in the moment.  He doesn't get tight spin and he doesn't get much consistency in that spin.  He largely has no feel for the pitch and uses it more as a show me, change of pace offering.  That means his effectiveness is dependent upon pitch movement that runs away from a left hander or into a right hander.  For a right handed pitcher, that often means limited movement of pitches that largely stay in the same plane for a batter.  In other words, Gausman is always playing around the barrel of the bat.

Above you can see a generic chart for what pitches tend to do.  Sliders and curveballs, even cutters, can break away from a right handed hitter with varying downward movement.  The two plane movement helps a pitcher avoid the bat and maybe even the barrel.  Gausman's best pitches come in that top quartile where the movement varies mostly in the vertical, which means if anything flattens out it might well go pretty far.

It is a fairly unique way for a pitcher to pitch.  In fact, here is a list of starting pitchers over the past five years who have thrown both four seamers and splitters for 60% or more of their pitches.

Name	FA%	FS%	Sum
Kevin Gausman	65	15	80
Taijuan Walker	59	16	75
Jorge de la Rosa	34	31	65
Jake Odorizzi	42	22	64
Nathan Eovaldi	53	9	62

The fact that this combination is so rare among starting pitchers suggests that it is simply hard to do this and be successful.  There is a long list of pitchers who are four seam fastball and changeup style pitchers who have been quite lauded, but never lived up to their enormous prospect hype. Dewon Brazleton comes to mind.  When they do appear, like Rich Harden or Johan Santana, their changeup is a more traditional offering than a splitter.  That said, it is a rare combination with respect to finding great success.

Gausman says his curveball is in excellent shape this year, which is something that it feels like we hear every year before the regular season begins and everything unravels.  What is interesting is that he also noted that he picked up a new sinker grip from new Oriole Andrew Cashner.  The piece in that links notes that Cashner's sinker tails into right handers and away from left handers, which all sinkers do (unless you are Charlie Morton).  That pitch may help Gausman, but he is still working that top left quadrant.

Last year, Cashner's sinker came in at -8.2 inches horizontal movement (2.8 inches off his four seamer) and 7.6 inches vertical movement (2 inches below his four seamer).  Gausman's old sinker (he did not throw one last year) had a similar -8.2 inches horizontal movement (same horizontal movement as his four seamer last year) and a similar 7.5 inches vertical movement (about two inches different than his fastball.  The difference primarily is that Gausman has a really good boring four seam fastball that took away an axis of movement with his sinker.  If he could get a little more movement from his sinker then it could be a multiplanar pitch working off his fastball instead of one that sees two more inches of drop.

If it were to become a solid offering, then he would be spending a lot of time with his four seamer, splitter, and sinker.  This is a combination, again, that is not very common in the MLB.  You tend to see this combination in aging pitchers who are moving off their four seamer due to decreased velocity and over to a splitter.  In this circumstances, you see a good bit of a 10/10/50 lean where the pitcher surprises a batter with a four seamer or two seamer while subsisting on the splitter.  Mike Pelfrey and Tim Hudson are two examples.

However, it is a pitch set that you do see in a group of pitcher who share one thing in common: growing up in the Japanese baseball system.

	Fav	FA%	FS%	SI%
Hisashi Iwakuma	89	27	21	24
Masahiro Tanaka	92	16	26	20
Hiroki Kuroda	91	7	23	41

Kuroda can probably be knocked out of this grouping, but Iwakuma and Tanaka fit well.  In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a start who came up through the American system to show this style of pitching.  Pelfrey, Hudson, and Anibel Sanchez are the only regular starting pitchers over the past five years to use these three pitches more than 10% of the time.  Gausman also differs quite a bit from any of these pitchers in that he has a truly plus fastball.  These other pitchers fit more in a crafty veteran style.

It will be interesting to see if Gausman can come up with a decent sinker that profiles with more contrast with his four seamer.  Other pitchers have certainly found success with this mix.  Although, it may well be something that has not been a style for MLB raised pitchers for quite a long time.

The Orioles Have Room To Improve At Many Positions

The Orioles, overall, weren't good last year. They started the season hot, faded, then somehow battled back to make things interesting in late August (68-65 on the 30th) before really fading and losing 22 of their remaining 29 games. Their end-of-season record (75-87) was tied for third-worst in the American League. Their run differential of -98 was also third-worst.

Still, the 2017 Orioles had their moments, and there's some hope that Buck Showalter can right the ship for one last hurrah. You might see how it could happen. It's easy to point out the current flaws with the O's roster, but talking up the best of some of their key (and well-paid) players who had down seasons is possible.

That's important, because just look where the O's ranked in FanGraphs' wins above replacement at every position last year:

AL Ranks
C: 3.7 (2nd)
1B: 1.4 (9th)
2B: 3.7 (4th)
SS: 1.1 (12th)
3B: 2.7 (7th)
LF: 0.1 (14th)
CF: 1.4 (12th)
RF: 1.2 (13th)
DH: -1.4 (t-10th)
SP: 5.5 (t-13th)
RP: 2.3 (t-11th)

Other than catcher and second base, there wasn't much to get excited about. And now, Welington Castillo and his 2.8 fWAR are gone. Fortunately, Caleb Joseph is in line for more work and might be underappreciated by FanGraphs' metric. Baseball Prospectus' WARP, which factors in the well-regarded FRAA to better account for catcher framing, had Joseph much closer to Castillo (2.8-2.1) despite about 100 fewer plate appearances. Throw in some upside from Chance Sisco (though there may be less now with him dropping in top-100 lists) and things don't look so bad at catcher.

The list of O's players who underwhelmed last year is long: Manny Machado (102 wRC+), Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith (gone), Wade Miley (gone), Kevin Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez (gone), Jeremy Hellickson (gone), Chris Tillman, and plenty of fringe major league pitching options. Try painting a picture of the O's competing for a playoff spot without Machado, Davis, Trumbo, Gausman, and Tillman performing much better. It's almost impossible.

Maybe Gausman and Dylan Bundy put things together next season and get needed support from Andrew Cashner, Tillman, and Nestor Cortes, or Miguel Castro, or Mike Wright, or Gabriel Ynoa, or someone else. Maybe the O's even use some of their (assumed) payroll room and upgrade the rotation. Maybe Zach Britton comes back feeling well in June and gives the bullpen a shot in the arm. Maybe Machado, Davis, and Trumbo start mashing again -- and things look even better when Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, and Tim Beckham keep hitting. Maybe Austin Hays is the real deal or Colby Rasmus bounces back in a major way -- or both! And maybe Adam Jones turns back the clock for another year.

You might not buy into this team. I don't, really, but that's also not the first time that's been the case and I've been wrong. Spring training is a time for hope, and it's fun to envision one more run for this group of players.