Orioles State of Centerfield: 2019-2023

Other columns in this series:
Catcher

Like so much of the Orioles, the next five years fills the franchise with so many opportunities where previously there were none.  One of those is ceterfield where recently we have seen Adam Jones, the Orioles stalwart in centerfield over the past decade, hand his reign over to a new hope: Cedric Mullins.  Mullins received a warm welcome from the fans and garners great interest.  So far, despite a hip injury slowing him down, Mullins' performance at the plate is exceptional while his defense shows promise of the feats he achieved in the minors.  Never a prominent prospect, though one we have had our eye on since the beginning, Mullins carries some questions about whether he will secure centerfield or find himself a transient talent, like Luis Matos.

Taking a look at the centerfield outlook for the franchise, we see these options:

Centerfield Table

Name	Age	Lev	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos Summary
Jones, Adam	32	MAJ	.278	.311	.423	CF-105, RF-12, DH-3
Gentry, Craig	34	MAJ,H-A,AA	.271	.324	.324	LF-31, RF-26, CF-16, DH-2
Rickard, Joey	27	AAA,MAJ	.255	.344	.421	CF-37, RF-35, LF-30
Mullins, Cedric#	23	AAA,AA,MAJ	.291	.351	.476	CF-118, DH-3, LF-3
Diaz, Yusniel	21	AA	.281	.390	.438	RF-51, CF-35, DH-2, LF-2
Hays, Austin	22	AA,SS	.232	.262	.386	RF-39, LF-13, CF-11, DH-8
McKenna, Ryan	21	H-A,AA	.319	.412	.463	CF-114, LF-3, RF-3, DH-1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/27/2018.

There is a positive and a negative to immediately take away from the list above.  The positive is that the Orioles have four young options at centerfield in Mullins, Diaz, Hays, and McKenna.  The negative is that each of those prospects have significant questions as to whether they truly are options in centerfield.  Another negative that has yet to break the horizon is that there does not appear to be any promising centerfielders below Bowie.

The elder statesmen are two impending free agents: Adam Jones and Craig Gentry.  As we noted in an earlier column, it is difficult to see how Adam Jones continues on this club given the need to provide opportunities for younger players and to feed Jones the playing time he earns.  Gentry, at 34, is a useful outfielder on the bench.  He provides defense at all three outfield positions and has some level of offense adequate for a backup outfielder.  That said, his profile is not a starter's profile and he is well into the time frame where one can expect performance to crash.

Joey Rickard at 27 feels younger than he really is given how he broke into the Baltimore scene a couple years ago in the Rule 5 draft.  While he has the athleticism to play all three outfield positions, his skills have not exactly developed to utilize those skills and he tends to field without caution.  The offensive profile for Rickard could be useful, but over 700 PA into Rickard's career and it appears he is not dependable to play full time.

Further up in this post, I mentioned Cedric Mullins. Back in his Delmarva days in 2016 I summarized him as:

Cedric Mullins is a SWINO (Switch Hitter in Name Only). He rakes right handers and a left handed bat and becomes flummoxed by southpaws (115/90).  He profiles as a backup centerfielder, but does not have the size/strength to be expected to show well in left field.  With decent, speed, contact, and gap strength, we should see him progress steadily through the minors.  I imagine he might be ready for a 4th or 5th outfielder role in 2019 or 2020.

I think he has fit that projection to a T.  He still struggles greatly against left handed pitching.  In 2017, 863 vs 604 and 859 vs 707 this year.  Having a strong bat against right handers makes Mullins a starting option in centerfield as he will be facing a great number of right handed pitchers.  However, it does make him a bit of a liability deeper in games when opposing managers can slip in a favorable matchup.  The defense also still looks great.  Defensive metrics view him as a bit sloppy right now with MLB data, but I think that is more likely do to some situational issues.  He should be fine long term and may even be a legitimate starter if he can maintain his handling of right handers and becomes adequate against lefties.  That said, there is no great, grand ceiling similar to what a young Adam Jones had to offer.  Mullins offers the club the ceiling of a solid starter who might rattle off one season that garners All Star attention.  And, yeah, much of this was said of Luis Matos as well.

Diaz and Hays can be lumped together here.  Both have promising bats (Diaz more so) and both, if you squint, have the potential to pull off a center field (Diaz more so).  The reality though is if either of them are occupying centerfield instead of Mullins that the plan is testing the rails.  While both look to be good right fielders (though some doubt Hays out there), both are seen as fringe defenders in center.  Their bats would need to speak up a bit more to manage lackluster gloves.  All in all, fringe rightfield star profiles drop to decent centerfield role player projection in center.

Ryan McKenna is the last name on this draw.  McKenna is the kind of player who gets an amazing amount of positive coverage because he just went bananas against some fairly poor pitching combined with hitting them where they ain't.

Ryan McKenna

Year	Age	AgeDif	Lev	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2015	18	-1.5	Rk	.265	.366	.324	.689
2016	19	-2.1	A-	.241	.320	.309	.629
2017	20	-1.5	A	.256	.331	.380	.712
2018	21	-3.3	AA	.242	.338	.340	.678
2018	21	-1.4	A+	.377	.467	.556	1.023
All	All	All		.278	.362	.397	.759

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/27/2018.

What makes his A+ stint in 2018 so amazing, a .436 BABIP that super charged his batted ball production.  What feels more genuine is that his rates returned to expectations in Bowie.  To be clear, none of this is really bad news.  He is a fairly young player for the levels who is holding his own.  A 21 year old providing useful play for  AA Bowie is an achievement.  His struggles there though reinforce some of the issues seen before and reduce the expectations some had for him with his demolishing of Frederick.  Perhaps slightly concerning is the evaporation of his running game, which may point to his physical development impeding upon the average/plus speed he was showing in previous seasons. 

As it stands, he looks like a lesser version of Cedric Mullins, which makes the profile redundant.  However, redundancy is good in the minors because Mullins certainly is not a sure thing.

Five Year Planning
While the catching scenario looks like all the eggs in the basket broke, center field has a clear, though wobbly, answer in Cedric Mullins and a backup answer a couple years off in Ryan McKenna.  Yes, it is more likely that both of them fail, but that is simply what prospects do.  Both though provide great fourth outfielder options and should be able to provide the club with talent similar to Gentry or Rickard.  That might feel like a loss, but that sort of bench depth is valuable and less you focus spending on higher targets.  And, well, the ceiling outcome is that both are viable starting center fielders.

All in all, this is a good state of affairs.

Adam Jones is Playing Deeper, but is it Helping?

This offseason, the Orioles somehow convinced Adam Jones to play deeper in center field. It's long been posited that Jones would net better defensive metrics, and therefore the Orioles would be improved, by his playing deeper in the outfield. The theory is that Jones, like most outfielders, is faster coming in on the ball than running away from home plate. Jones, for his part, has resisted this change for at least a little while and relied on his knowledge of hitters and counts before relenting.

Whether Jones' playing deeper has helped his cause is questionable, however. On average, Jones is playing 323 feet from home plate in 2017, compared to 300 feet in 2015 and 307 feet in 2016. According to Statcast, not one of the 65 balls in play to center field have gone for hits so far this season. In 2016, just two of the 402 balls in play to center field went for hits.

Jones' ultimate zone rating per 150 innings (UZR/150) in 2016, one of the stats that suffered in 2016, was -9.9. This followed two years of UZR/150 of over 8.0. Early returns in 2017 are less than ideal; Jones' UZR/150 this season is -7.5 - slightly better than last year but still worse than average.

The Orioles' outfield UZR/150 sits at -7.0 so far in 2017, another slight improvement from -11.2 in 2015. The UZR/150 of the outfield in 2015 was just -1.0. While outfield personnel changes, and the combination of Rickard/Mancini/Trumbo is not helping the overall ability of the outfield, that's not a marked improvement from year to year. At the same time, it's hard to know what would have happened but for Jones playing deeper. Perhaps his playing deeper has like Wayne Kirby told Jon Meoli, allowed for more flexibility in the positioning of the less capable outfielders on the roster and helped the team defense compared to what it would be if Jones played 15 feet in.

More important than any of the on-field outcomes is how this story has played out between Jones and the front office. Per Jon Meoli's excellent article on the rationale and early returns, the decision was less of a conversation and more of an edict. Jones claims to have wanted to further his understanding of the team's defensive metrics and voice his opinion as, you know, the guy who actually had to carry out the change, but was never given the opportunity.

The way this played out is less than ideal. I don't want to be the "never played the game" guy - I never played the game - but it's important for analysts in the front office to understand what such a change means for Jones, the man responsible for following their recommendations. I don't mean to assume that the professional analysts simplified the rationale into aggregates, but "playing deeper" means something different when speaking about averages compared to trusting a player's intuition on individual pitches. While recommendations may have been given for scenarios, Jones is certainly not receiving advice on his positioning in-game. Following general orders to "play deeper" takes away the experience Jones has accrued over years of playing decent outfield defense.

At the same time, trusting Jones to know exactly what's best not only for himself but for his partners in the outfield would be naive. The best situation would have been for the Orioles to have Jones and the analysts to sit and work together, to communicate, and to formulate a plan in a partnership between the subject matter expert and the consultant. Even if the result was identical, the fact that Jones was unhappy enough to say it to the press is less than ideal and instructive for the Orioles, other Major League teams, and all professional organizations in existence. It's important to understand and appreciate nuance, and involve the people carrying out the work in the decision-making process.