The Orioles have had a few calls for the cavalry. The first utterance was under the Andy MacPhail regime and it spoke of talents like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Radhames Liz, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Troy Patton and those are just the arms that appeared on Baseball America's top 100 lists. The idea behind it all was about buying bats and not spending a great amount of money on pitching, to simply grow the arms. It did not work. Of those starters, the Orioles only saw starting pitching success with Tillman. The others failed to provide the club with what the club was anticipating. The cavalry was called, it showed up, and they mainly rode donkeys.
A softer bugle was called a few years later as Kevin Gausman was cutting his teeth and experiencing flashes of extreme success. High upside arms appeared in the form of Dylan Bundy, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Hunter Harvey. Gausman could never sustain his highs, but was solid rotation arm before being dealt to the Braves this past deadline. Bundy, after experiencing injury woes, looks like a top shelf pitcher when his fastball sits in the mid 90s and then a shell of himself if it dips below that. It has dipped often below that. Harvey no longer looks like a starting pitcher and some question whether he can stay healthy enough to experience long term success in any role in the majors. And, of course, Eduardo Rodriguez was traded off to help the Orioles better manage their bullpen in the 2014 playoffs, a short term benefit with long term consequences. The deadening of the starting rotation these past three years has been a product of this cavalry not being able to beef up the rotation (though not as unspectacularly as the previous incarnation of the cavalry).
However, past drafts and a few deadline trades rejuvenated the minors with arms. So much so, that the club probably has some concerns about how exactly to get those arms the right number of innings against the right kind of competition. The only certainty the Orioles face is their top three slot in their rotation. Dylan Bundy, who again fatigued along the way with terrible effect, will be top arm in the rotation. Andrew Cashner, who did his secret Wade Miley impersonation in eating innings while getting roughed up, is the second sure feature of the rotation. Alex Cobb, who habitually is unable to complete 30 starts a year, rounds out the top three.
Behind those guys is a bit of a free-for-all. The Orioles might seek stability or upside and go after a free agent starter this off-season. However, the more arms you sign to be in the rotation, the more you depend on injuries to give the younger arms a chance to showcase their talents on the MLB stage. At the moment, the competition for the last two slots appears to be one between Yefry Ramirez and David Hess against Josh Rogers, John Means, and perhaps Keegan Akin. One also figures that Luis Ortiz, Dillon Tate, Jimmy Yacabonis, and Hunter Harvey might also get a shot.
Whoever shakes free from that group would fill out Norfolk. If you assume that Hess and Ramirez start in Baltimore, then you probably have Ortiz, Akin, Rogers, Means, and Dean Kremer in Norfolk. Again, you have some other arms up in the air like Yacabonis, Harvey, Gabriel Ynoa, and Jordan Kipper. Bowie likely fills out with Tate, Michael Baumann, Bruce Zimmerman, Brian Gonzalez, and Cristian Alvarado. Lucas Humpal and Ofelky Peralta should also get a mention here.
Down to Frederick, Brenan Hanifee, Luis Perez, Cody Sedlock, Jhon Peluffo, and D.L. Hall look slated to compete there. Matthias Dietz may be finding himself in the pen. Delmarva may bring out Grayson Rodriguez, Blaine Knight, Hector Guance, Jake Zebron, and maybe Jimmy Murphy. Really, you can get down to Delmarva and really not see any obvious holes opening up to bring in veteran pitching. This is a problem that the club has not had to deal with in a while.
It should also be noted that while there is a cavalry, a deep cavalry. It does not speak to the quality of those arms. As you go through the system, you find a lot of fringey talent. You can imagine arms like Ortiz, Tate, Harvey, and Akin to make meaningful contributions in the Majors. You might even be able to imagine Kremer, Baumann, Zimmerman, and Hanifee to swoop in as well. But, really, Grayson Rodriguez is the lone arm that is truly seen as special. He has a couple years to go before he can see Baltimore if he advances quickly.
So, all in all, the depth is there for Baltimore. It is depth that they have not seen since the late 2000s. It is a collection of pitchers whose profile is not as well considered compared to those cavalry classes a decade ago though. This cavalry is a bit irregular. But, the hope is there that perhaps a few of them will emerge and beat the odds. If they do, then the Orioles rebuild will be quicker than anticipated.
Showing posts with label State of the Franchise 2019 to 2023. Show all posts
Showing posts with label State of the Franchise 2019 to 2023. Show all posts
28 September 2018
19 September 2018
Moving Away from Buck: The Orioles Next Manager
One point five times. That figure is burned into my head. I cannot remember where I acquired that figure, but it has to do with the ideal age of a leader given the average age of his employees, followers, whatever. Studies, ones I have actually found, tend to suggest age is a factor, but maybe not something that should be a primary focus.
Why does any of this matter? Well, after years like this, people tend to be fired and a common target for getting fired in the manager. To be precise, Buck Showalter only has a couple weeks left to be fired. That is a highly unlikely occurance. More likely is that Buck will not be offered another opportunity to manage the Orioles. With that vacancy, the Orioles are in need of a new skipper.
The Orioles tend to focus on big names: Buck Showalter, Mike Hargrove, Leo Mazzone, and Davey Johnson. Organizational favorites have also popped up like Dave Trembley, Sam Perlozzo, and Ray Miller. You also have Lee Mazzilli. Eh.
Recent trends have been pushing younger and younger managers. In 2012, the Cardinals and White Sox seemed to welcome a new era when they respectively hired Mike Matheny and Robin Ventura. Since then, twenty six first-time managers have been hired with over half of them without any managerial experience. Last year, four of six managerial openings were filled with individuals 44 years old or younger: Alex Cora (42), Mickey Callaway (42), Gabe Kapler (42), and Aaron Boone (44). Managers have become less the captain of the clubhouse and more a conduit to deliver front office interests to the field, to bring front office direction to the players.
The Orioles did not subscribe to that organizational structure these past several years. Buck Showalter was hired against Andy MacPhail's wishes and was a major reason why he walked away from the Orioles. The Orioles original offer to Tony LaCava to head the club was undermined by his lack of authority over Showalter and other employees in baseball operations. Dan Duquette was able to weather it all, but the team was often referred to as a two-headed monster by opposing clubs who would often become confused as to who exactly made decisions. The answer: both with ownership being a tie breaker, or whoever was more empowered by ownership at any one time.
If the Orioles want to modernize their franchise, then the first thing they need is a manager who is an extension of the front office instead of a foil. Change appears to be best accepted by young, charismatic, transformational leaders. However, with a multicoach setup, you can look at a couple of different leadership structures. One would be an older, more stable manager with younger, more analytically inclined assistant coaches. Another route would be a younger more analytically incline manager with more of a mix of older and similarly aged assistant coaches. The problem with younger leadership though is with buy-in. If you go too young, then the players may not accept the authority of their manager. This can also be a problem with the assistant coaches and manager.
Given these ideas about management, approaches by other clubs modernizing their structure, and the talent that is currently out there, what options do the Orioles have? The following is not a listing of various candidates, but solutions for each spot in the roster.
Manager - Joe Espada (Houston Astros, bench coach), Age 43
When Alex Cora was swiped by the Boston Red Sox as their manager, Joe Espada slid over to the bench coach position for the Astros from being the Yankees third base coach. Espada is from Puerto Rico, is known as a communicator, and is well acquainted with the use of analytics from his time with the Yankees and the Astros. He would be an asset to any front office.
He would be an asset in that he would likely be controllable where Buck Showalter enjoyed a more traditional sense of control, free of daily contributions from the front office if he decided their help was not needed. Espada, used to structures with considerable input from up top, would be looking at his first big league gig, which would be helpful. Also, as a younger manager he may well be a better communicator with the younger players who will now have a larger role. Buck was never known as a great developer of talent, but as a maximizer of existing and accepted talent.
Pitching Coach - Brian Bannister (Boston Red Sox, assistant pitching coach), Age 37
The quickest way to getting back to respectability in the AL East will be to somehow be able to target and adjust the pitchers available within the Orioles' system. Bannister might be that guy. He is known to be one of the main drives behind the Red Sox pitching analytics push and is credited to being a player who was on the tip of the spear. He was Brandon McCarthy before Brandon McCarthy, if that helps.
Bannister is credited with finding the right mix and approach for Rich Hill, blossoming him at a very later stage in his career. It is uncertain what his new responsibilities might be after the change over from Farrell, but he might wish to get into a position of more control to implement his ideas. And while analytics are becoming more accepted in clubhouses (the Orioles are not one of those clubhouses), a young, former player with coach and communication experience makes Bannister a potentially ideal fit for Baltimore.
Hitting Coach - Jeff Livesay (Pittsburgh Pirates, assistant hitting coach), Age 52
To be honest, I do not know much about Livesay. What I do know is that he has spent 15 years with the Pirates. He has experienced the transition from a traditional operation to one that is very analytically focused. That experience is something that I think would be useful. He likely has experienced the rough spots and may be a useful coach who can understand obstacles in the transition. At 52, he certainly is young enough to last a while. He could also be paired with a younger voice like reupping Howie Clark.
If you want someone more on the tip of the spear, then you would probably want someone like Severna Park's own Mark Budzinski, a jack of all trades pre- and in- game coach for the Cleveland Indians. He might be more on the nose if you want a wholesale change to a more modern operation.
First base Coach - Jerry Hairston, Jr. (SportsNet LA, First Base Coach), Age 41
You may better remember Hairston as the player the Orioles decided to send on and dedicate themselves to Brian Roberts and to bring in Sammy Sosa. One of those worked out. Hairston went on to have a long career as a role player until a hip injury ended it. He then transitioned into the broadcast booth for SportsNet LA. He has no coaching experience, but he has a whole lot of playing experience and communication skills.
It is uncertain if Hairston would consider a role like this, especially after he was a finalist for the New York Yankees manager gig a year ago. Is a collaborative role acceptable when so close to a managerial position. It may not hurt to ask. If that does not work out there would be other names I would want to kick the tires on: Jose Hernandez, Brian Roberts, Tom Goodwin, Reggie Willits, or Mark Kotsay.
Third base Coach - Bobby Dickerson (Baltimore Orioles, Third Base coach), Age 53
I really like Bobby Dickerson. He is not a make or break coach, but he is great at infield instruction and is a solid third base coach. Fans often get upset when players get thrown out at home, but that is more or less an emotional reaction to a poor outcome. If a third base coach was 100% successful when sending a guy, then you are talking about a whole lot of runs left at third base because that next guy to the plate is going to get out a lot. Third base coaches tend to be very conservative because you do not look bad when holding a guy. Dickerson feels alright looking bad and that increases run scoring.
If you would want to clean the slate (which I do not think is needed, but Dickerson may wish to go if he is the only mainstay), then I think the Red Sox's Tom Goodwin or the Dodger's George Lombard could be decent options. I could also see the next guy I mention moving into this position, Will Venable. In that case, I would probably look to someone like the Tides' Ron Johnson to be a familiar face as Bench Coach.
Bench Coach - Will Venable (Chicago Cubs, First Base Coach), Age 35
Venable was a bit of a leap when the Cubs transitioned him from a front office assistant last Fall to a first base and outfield coach this year. He was brought on to freshen up the on field instruction with a younger voice. By all accounts, it was a success. The Cubs are a highly analytical group and Venable has been a useful way to communicate data to the players. Espada could utilize that kind of coach on the bench and help provide Espada with information need for managing situations.
Conclusion
This is one path for the future. It may not be a path for success, but it is a path with intent. With the current multi-headed, multi-objective, multi-style environment the Orioles currently employ, maybe it is a better path forward. It calls back to the Oriole Way that Paul Richards employed and that Earl Waever followed. Maybe the Orioles, like in the 1950s, were in a dump with a poor farm system and not much at the major league level to shake a stick at. However, being at the bottom means having opportunities to take risks and to try to be at the front of the next innovation. Introducing management and coaches who are open to exploration and new ways of doing things may be able to get the Orioles out in front of the pack.
Maybe they take this track. Maybe they find some success in a different one.
Why does any of this matter? Well, after years like this, people tend to be fired and a common target for getting fired in the manager. To be precise, Buck Showalter only has a couple weeks left to be fired. That is a highly unlikely occurance. More likely is that Buck will not be offered another opportunity to manage the Orioles. With that vacancy, the Orioles are in need of a new skipper.
The Orioles tend to focus on big names: Buck Showalter, Mike Hargrove, Leo Mazzone, and Davey Johnson. Organizational favorites have also popped up like Dave Trembley, Sam Perlozzo, and Ray Miller. You also have Lee Mazzilli. Eh.
Recent trends have been pushing younger and younger managers. In 2012, the Cardinals and White Sox seemed to welcome a new era when they respectively hired Mike Matheny and Robin Ventura. Since then, twenty six first-time managers have been hired with over half of them without any managerial experience. Last year, four of six managerial openings were filled with individuals 44 years old or younger: Alex Cora (42), Mickey Callaway (42), Gabe Kapler (42), and Aaron Boone (44). Managers have become less the captain of the clubhouse and more a conduit to deliver front office interests to the field, to bring front office direction to the players.
The Orioles did not subscribe to that organizational structure these past several years. Buck Showalter was hired against Andy MacPhail's wishes and was a major reason why he walked away from the Orioles. The Orioles original offer to Tony LaCava to head the club was undermined by his lack of authority over Showalter and other employees in baseball operations. Dan Duquette was able to weather it all, but the team was often referred to as a two-headed monster by opposing clubs who would often become confused as to who exactly made decisions. The answer: both with ownership being a tie breaker, or whoever was more empowered by ownership at any one time.
If the Orioles want to modernize their franchise, then the first thing they need is a manager who is an extension of the front office instead of a foil. Change appears to be best accepted by young, charismatic, transformational leaders. However, with a multicoach setup, you can look at a couple of different leadership structures. One would be an older, more stable manager with younger, more analytically inclined assistant coaches. Another route would be a younger more analytically incline manager with more of a mix of older and similarly aged assistant coaches. The problem with younger leadership though is with buy-in. If you go too young, then the players may not accept the authority of their manager. This can also be a problem with the assistant coaches and manager.
Given these ideas about management, approaches by other clubs modernizing their structure, and the talent that is currently out there, what options do the Orioles have? The following is not a listing of various candidates, but solutions for each spot in the roster.
Manager - Joe Espada (Houston Astros, bench coach), Age 43
When Alex Cora was swiped by the Boston Red Sox as their manager, Joe Espada slid over to the bench coach position for the Astros from being the Yankees third base coach. Espada is from Puerto Rico, is known as a communicator, and is well acquainted with the use of analytics from his time with the Yankees and the Astros. He would be an asset to any front office.
He would be an asset in that he would likely be controllable where Buck Showalter enjoyed a more traditional sense of control, free of daily contributions from the front office if he decided their help was not needed. Espada, used to structures with considerable input from up top, would be looking at his first big league gig, which would be helpful. Also, as a younger manager he may well be a better communicator with the younger players who will now have a larger role. Buck was never known as a great developer of talent, but as a maximizer of existing and accepted talent.
Pitching Coach - Brian Bannister (Boston Red Sox, assistant pitching coach), Age 37
The quickest way to getting back to respectability in the AL East will be to somehow be able to target and adjust the pitchers available within the Orioles' system. Bannister might be that guy. He is known to be one of the main drives behind the Red Sox pitching analytics push and is credited to being a player who was on the tip of the spear. He was Brandon McCarthy before Brandon McCarthy, if that helps.
Bannister is credited with finding the right mix and approach for Rich Hill, blossoming him at a very later stage in his career. It is uncertain what his new responsibilities might be after the change over from Farrell, but he might wish to get into a position of more control to implement his ideas. And while analytics are becoming more accepted in clubhouses (the Orioles are not one of those clubhouses), a young, former player with coach and communication experience makes Bannister a potentially ideal fit for Baltimore.
Hitting Coach - Jeff Livesay (Pittsburgh Pirates, assistant hitting coach), Age 52
To be honest, I do not know much about Livesay. What I do know is that he has spent 15 years with the Pirates. He has experienced the transition from a traditional operation to one that is very analytically focused. That experience is something that I think would be useful. He likely has experienced the rough spots and may be a useful coach who can understand obstacles in the transition. At 52, he certainly is young enough to last a while. He could also be paired with a younger voice like reupping Howie Clark.
If you want someone more on the tip of the spear, then you would probably want someone like Severna Park's own Mark Budzinski, a jack of all trades pre- and in- game coach for the Cleveland Indians. He might be more on the nose if you want a wholesale change to a more modern operation.
First base Coach - Jerry Hairston, Jr. (SportsNet LA, First Base Coach), Age 41
You may better remember Hairston as the player the Orioles decided to send on and dedicate themselves to Brian Roberts and to bring in Sammy Sosa. One of those worked out. Hairston went on to have a long career as a role player until a hip injury ended it. He then transitioned into the broadcast booth for SportsNet LA. He has no coaching experience, but he has a whole lot of playing experience and communication skills.
It is uncertain if Hairston would consider a role like this, especially after he was a finalist for the New York Yankees manager gig a year ago. Is a collaborative role acceptable when so close to a managerial position. It may not hurt to ask. If that does not work out there would be other names I would want to kick the tires on: Jose Hernandez, Brian Roberts, Tom Goodwin, Reggie Willits, or Mark Kotsay.
Third base Coach - Bobby Dickerson (Baltimore Orioles, Third Base coach), Age 53
I really like Bobby Dickerson. He is not a make or break coach, but he is great at infield instruction and is a solid third base coach. Fans often get upset when players get thrown out at home, but that is more or less an emotional reaction to a poor outcome. If a third base coach was 100% successful when sending a guy, then you are talking about a whole lot of runs left at third base because that next guy to the plate is going to get out a lot. Third base coaches tend to be very conservative because you do not look bad when holding a guy. Dickerson feels alright looking bad and that increases run scoring.
If you would want to clean the slate (which I do not think is needed, but Dickerson may wish to go if he is the only mainstay), then I think the Red Sox's Tom Goodwin or the Dodger's George Lombard could be decent options. I could also see the next guy I mention moving into this position, Will Venable. In that case, I would probably look to someone like the Tides' Ron Johnson to be a familiar face as Bench Coach.
Bench Coach - Will Venable (Chicago Cubs, First Base Coach), Age 35
Venable was a bit of a leap when the Cubs transitioned him from a front office assistant last Fall to a first base and outfield coach this year. He was brought on to freshen up the on field instruction with a younger voice. By all accounts, it was a success. The Cubs are a highly analytical group and Venable has been a useful way to communicate data to the players. Espada could utilize that kind of coach on the bench and help provide Espada with information need for managing situations.
Conclusion
This is one path for the future. It may not be a path for success, but it is a path with intent. With the current multi-headed, multi-objective, multi-style environment the Orioles currently employ, maybe it is a better path forward. It calls back to the Oriole Way that Paul Richards employed and that Earl Waever followed. Maybe the Orioles, like in the 1950s, were in a dump with a poor farm system and not much at the major league level to shake a stick at. However, being at the bottom means having opportunities to take risks and to try to be at the front of the next innovation. Introducing management and coaches who are open to exploration and new ways of doing things may be able to get the Orioles out in front of the pack.
Maybe they take this track. Maybe they find some success in a different one.
07 September 2018
Who Will Lead the Orioles to the Land Flowing with Cold Beer and Pit Beef?
God promised Abraham that if he followed the righteous path that he would be led to a land flowing with milk and honey. In Baltimore, perhaps we seek something more akin to a place with limitless beer and pit beef, a few World Series wins. At the moment, publicly, we do not know who will be tasked with keeping the franchise on the right path toward success. What public clues we have are few and far between. We know Dan Duquette is talking as if he is in control of the future. We know MASN is teasing about whether Buck Showalter will stick around for the rebuild. We know that Brady Anderson is more interested in lawn care and free lifts than sitting in an office managing resources.
The MASN actions certainly feel like they have been told to focus on Buck Showalter as the season ends for whatever reason. I would be surprised if they are teasing their audience with these tweets without knowing or being told that this is something to do and that Buck is fine with it. It almost convinces me that he will be connected to the Orioles after this season is done, but it does make one wonder to what effect will he remain with the club. At 62, he is coming to the end of his dugout years and there is a research base that suggests that managers are best suited for the tasks they must perform from ages 45-55. Not all individuals fit that neat peak, but it is considered by those in management research field to be the ripe age for a MLB manager. So, will he assume the reins of General Manager (or whatever the Angeloses prefer to call that) or maybe a mid-2000s Nolan Ryan figurehead position?
While Buck has carried with him the mantle of a team builder who cannot cross the final hurdle, there is some argument to be had whether he is a team builder. His control over pieces with the Yankees was effectively nothing. In Arizona, he was in charge of creating the organization and is credited to their eventual World Series success similar to how Dan Duquette is credited with Theo Epstein's Boston success. His mode of operation in Arizona was to quickly evaluate young players. Those that did not fit what he wanted, he dealt them out for solid veteran players.
Buck traded away talents such as Joe Randa, Jeff Suppan, Tony Batista, Brad Penny, Vincente Padilla, and Travis Lee to acquire older talents like Matt Williams, Luis Gonzalez, Dan Plesac, Matt Mantei, Tony Womack, and Curt Schilling. All in all it looks like a good batch, but it is really solely dependent on Curt Schilling's success. Without his 35.4 bWAR for the Diamondbacks, the net effect of dealing out young players for proven veterans would have been a net loss of 24.4 wins. Can you just excise Schilling from all this? No, but it shows that Buck was not making great trades left and right as the man behind the plan.
In Texas, John Hart's dominance as general manager was diminished when Buck was hired for the 2003 season and Buck's influence was high through Jon Daniels first season in 2006. The deals during this 2003-2005 range though were interesting. Travis Hafner was dealt out for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese (-24.1 bWAR). traded away Ryan Ludwick for Ricardo Rodriguez and Shane Spencer (-9.8 bWAR). Figured out with Hart and others that Alex Rodriguez was sinking the team with his contract and dealt him away (~42 bWAR). Alphonso Soriano was then dealt a couple seasons later at a loss (-3.2 BWAR). A monumentally terrible trade sent Adrian Gonzalez (who was stolen from the Marlins in a deal for Ugueth Urbina) and Chris Young dealt to the Padres for veteran pitcher Adam Eaton and veteran closer Akinori Otsuka (-24.6 bWAR, which doesn't include the value of the players the Padres got back in the Red Sox deal). This looks like I am just picking terrible deals, but I am really just picking the main deals that involved players that wound up doing something. The team that included Showalter had their best deal with acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, but were unable to figure out what they had in him over a couple seasons.
In Baltimore, it has been more difficult to see what exactly lays at Buck's or Duquette's feet. Buck has been a major proponent in several acquisitions. He was involved in re-signing Darren O'Day, wanted Matt Wieters back, wanted Chris Tillman back, was highly interested in Andrew Cashner, was aggressive with Colby Rasmus twice, and other veteran style acquisitions. He tends to have his favorites, which usually are older players, and quickly dismisses young talent or tasks them with pointless activities like book reports. The point of all this being that maybe he is not the best guy to be in charge of overseeing a finishing school for young talent or be heavily involved in evaluating that talent.
Again, I find it hard to believe that MASN would continue an advertisement tease about whether or not Buck will be around to see the rebuild without being told to do that. It makes me think he will be around and maybe even higher up in the organization. That said, I was told from someone outside of the organization that in their every dealing with Duquette or someone else in the front office that they are near certain that Duquette will remain in his position. He told me that the front office is not acting like there is a change in regime happening, they are acting like they will have the ball come November and beyond. Take that for what that is worth.
What does it mean if Dan Duquette remains? It bears repeating that Dan Duquette literally took a joke of a franchise into the playoffs three times and was a series away from the World Series. The organization he ran did this on a mid-level roster using a core his predecessor put together, but by effectively rebuilding and reconfiguring the pitching staff, the bench, and a couple role players. It showed a combination of luck and skill along with the flexibility to utilize outside of the box thinking, such as making Manny Machado a third baseman, becoming one of the first teams to emphasize defensive shifts, utilizing alternative markets and options to find successful players, and creating the industry trend of waiting out free agents well into the off season. All of that happened. All of that is real. So, while Duquette cuts a rather mixed path it is important to note that his team got a lot of things right and it led to the success he saw that was never supposed to happen. Add that to his work with the Red Sox and Expos, you can see why he has had a long career in baseball and why the Blue Jays were so eager to have him run their organization a few years back.
Yes, there are also negatives. Those negatives he widely has noted this past year. They traded a lot of aspects of organizational health to maximize their on-field play during the past several years. That meant taking a foolishly meager international budget that was unique in MLB operations and somehow finding new ways to gut it even further after the unexpected success of 2012 accelerated the clocks. Infighting has also prevented the club from incorporating analytics into their developmental system. When some analytics have been pushed into use, they were chosen poorly (i.e., Rick Peterson). Trading away and sacrificing draft picks on conditional free agents thinned out the Orioles top end prospects and the club frequently dealt away fringe prospect talent for low ceiling veterans, a practice that eventually caught up with the club.
Needless to say it has been a tough time and fascinating in how it brought so much success.
Now, lets suggest that the indications mentioned above are wrong. That both Duquette and Buck will not be in charge of the rebuild moving forward. What kind of talent is out there?
Two Exciting Names that Must Be on the Interview List
Amiel Sawdaye
Maryland native who was named the Red Sox Scouting Director in 2010 at 33, then promoted to the Vice President of International and Amateur Scouting for the Red Sox at age 38, and then quickly off to the Arizona Diamondbacks as Assistant General Manager. With the Red Sox he integrated analytics, video, and scouting to improve and streamline their system, something the Orioles drastically need improvement on. He is a communicator who can quickly understand a wide range of ideas and locate people to implement them. Sawdaye is effectively what Dan Duquette was seen as in the early 1990s.
Kyle Stark
The Pirates did it first. That is a common response to any major change in baseball these past several years seen as successful enough to implement all around. While the Orioles were quick to adapt defensive shifts, the Pirates were the standard bearer. Stark came onto the scene with the Indians and did a decent amount of analytics work for them, but show interest and ability on the developmental side. As the Pirates' farm director, he took an antiquated system and began to standardize it within the organizational, emphasizing not only the usage of analytics but how to communicate them. As an Assistant General Manager, his duties have expanded as well as the number of people working under him. Stark is similar to Sawdaye with perhaps one exception, Stark has had to face the realities of a small market club which narrows the room for error.
Two Names that are Found on the Rolodex
Ned Colletti
Colletti was reported to have interviewed with the Orioles earlier this season. Some dispute that report. Colletti fits more of the traditional Orioles perspective in finding an established and respected person who could immediately step into the position. That was what led to Pat Gillick, Syd Thrift, Jim Beattie, Andy MacPhail, and Dan Duquette. A firm resume was something that it always seemed like Peter Angelos looked for. And, it makes sense. If you do not really understand what is going on then you find people who have had success in the past. Colletti has had success, but it was largely considered a product of inheriting a strong developmental system and having extra cash to throw around. In the end, Colletti was dispatched for not being current with new approaches to baseball and repeatedly underwhelming on-field play.
Paul DePodesta
You may remember DePodesta from Superbad, 21 Jump Street, or Moneyball. Oh wait, that is Jonah Hill. You may remember DePodesta from the book Moneyball and how Beane greatly depended on him for those turn of the 2000s Athletics teams. You may also remember how he took that perspective to the Dodgers, clashed with the media, and was loudly and ceremoniously fired. You may also remember how he then was picked up by the Padres and then Mets before rocking the NFL when he was hired to helm the Browns franchise. You may also remember how the Browns franchise has been repeatedly criticized for thinking itself to be the smartest team in the front office as well as how it all went to pot this past offseason. Going to pot makes one wonder to what extent Paul DePodesta still runs things over there with a new General Manager in town with John Dorsey who turned over about 60% of the roster. DePodesta, with his former baseball success and analytical prowess a couple decades back, looks like a fresher version of Duquette.
Looking Forward
Realistically, I think Duquette is the right path that the Orioles would be capable of making. In terms of running an organization, I have more faith in him than I do with Showalter. It also helps that Duquette has seen success over such a fractured franchise. If wishes were horses, then moving forward with a young talent like Sawdaye or Stark would see obvious to me. If they want to go over second hand tires again, then DePodesta might be able to run the team in a more modern fashion than I think Colletti would be able to do.
The MASN actions certainly feel like they have been told to focus on Buck Showalter as the season ends for whatever reason. I would be surprised if they are teasing their audience with these tweets without knowing or being told that this is something to do and that Buck is fine with it. It almost convinces me that he will be connected to the Orioles after this season is done, but it does make one wonder to what effect will he remain with the club. At 62, he is coming to the end of his dugout years and there is a research base that suggests that managers are best suited for the tasks they must perform from ages 45-55. Not all individuals fit that neat peak, but it is considered by those in management research field to be the ripe age for a MLB manager. So, will he assume the reins of General Manager (or whatever the Angeloses prefer to call that) or maybe a mid-2000s Nolan Ryan figurehead position?
While Buck has carried with him the mantle of a team builder who cannot cross the final hurdle, there is some argument to be had whether he is a team builder. His control over pieces with the Yankees was effectively nothing. In Arizona, he was in charge of creating the organization and is credited to their eventual World Series success similar to how Dan Duquette is credited with Theo Epstein's Boston success. His mode of operation in Arizona was to quickly evaluate young players. Those that did not fit what he wanted, he dealt them out for solid veteran players.
Buck traded away talents such as Joe Randa, Jeff Suppan, Tony Batista, Brad Penny, Vincente Padilla, and Travis Lee to acquire older talents like Matt Williams, Luis Gonzalez, Dan Plesac, Matt Mantei, Tony Womack, and Curt Schilling. All in all it looks like a good batch, but it is really solely dependent on Curt Schilling's success. Without his 35.4 bWAR for the Diamondbacks, the net effect of dealing out young players for proven veterans would have been a net loss of 24.4 wins. Can you just excise Schilling from all this? No, but it shows that Buck was not making great trades left and right as the man behind the plan.
In Texas, John Hart's dominance as general manager was diminished when Buck was hired for the 2003 season and Buck's influence was high through Jon Daniels first season in 2006. The deals during this 2003-2005 range though were interesting. Travis Hafner was dealt out for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese (-24.1 bWAR). traded away Ryan Ludwick for Ricardo Rodriguez and Shane Spencer (-9.8 bWAR). Figured out with Hart and others that Alex Rodriguez was sinking the team with his contract and dealt him away (~42 bWAR). Alphonso Soriano was then dealt a couple seasons later at a loss (-3.2 BWAR). A monumentally terrible trade sent Adrian Gonzalez (who was stolen from the Marlins in a deal for Ugueth Urbina) and Chris Young dealt to the Padres for veteran pitcher Adam Eaton and veteran closer Akinori Otsuka (-24.6 bWAR, which doesn't include the value of the players the Padres got back in the Red Sox deal). This looks like I am just picking terrible deals, but I am really just picking the main deals that involved players that wound up doing something. The team that included Showalter had their best deal with acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, but were unable to figure out what they had in him over a couple seasons.
In Baltimore, it has been more difficult to see what exactly lays at Buck's or Duquette's feet. Buck has been a major proponent in several acquisitions. He was involved in re-signing Darren O'Day, wanted Matt Wieters back, wanted Chris Tillman back, was highly interested in Andrew Cashner, was aggressive with Colby Rasmus twice, and other veteran style acquisitions. He tends to have his favorites, which usually are older players, and quickly dismisses young talent or tasks them with pointless activities like book reports. The point of all this being that maybe he is not the best guy to be in charge of overseeing a finishing school for young talent or be heavily involved in evaluating that talent.
Again, I find it hard to believe that MASN would continue an advertisement tease about whether or not Buck will be around to see the rebuild without being told to do that. It makes me think he will be around and maybe even higher up in the organization. That said, I was told from someone outside of the organization that in their every dealing with Duquette or someone else in the front office that they are near certain that Duquette will remain in his position. He told me that the front office is not acting like there is a change in regime happening, they are acting like they will have the ball come November and beyond. Take that for what that is worth.
What does it mean if Dan Duquette remains? It bears repeating that Dan Duquette literally took a joke of a franchise into the playoffs three times and was a series away from the World Series. The organization he ran did this on a mid-level roster using a core his predecessor put together, but by effectively rebuilding and reconfiguring the pitching staff, the bench, and a couple role players. It showed a combination of luck and skill along with the flexibility to utilize outside of the box thinking, such as making Manny Machado a third baseman, becoming one of the first teams to emphasize defensive shifts, utilizing alternative markets and options to find successful players, and creating the industry trend of waiting out free agents well into the off season. All of that happened. All of that is real. So, while Duquette cuts a rather mixed path it is important to note that his team got a lot of things right and it led to the success he saw that was never supposed to happen. Add that to his work with the Red Sox and Expos, you can see why he has had a long career in baseball and why the Blue Jays were so eager to have him run their organization a few years back.
Yes, there are also negatives. Those negatives he widely has noted this past year. They traded a lot of aspects of organizational health to maximize their on-field play during the past several years. That meant taking a foolishly meager international budget that was unique in MLB operations and somehow finding new ways to gut it even further after the unexpected success of 2012 accelerated the clocks. Infighting has also prevented the club from incorporating analytics into their developmental system. When some analytics have been pushed into use, they were chosen poorly (i.e., Rick Peterson). Trading away and sacrificing draft picks on conditional free agents thinned out the Orioles top end prospects and the club frequently dealt away fringe prospect talent for low ceiling veterans, a practice that eventually caught up with the club.
Needless to say it has been a tough time and fascinating in how it brought so much success.
Now, lets suggest that the indications mentioned above are wrong. That both Duquette and Buck will not be in charge of the rebuild moving forward. What kind of talent is out there?
Two Exciting Names that Must Be on the Interview List
Amiel Sawdaye
Maryland native who was named the Red Sox Scouting Director in 2010 at 33, then promoted to the Vice President of International and Amateur Scouting for the Red Sox at age 38, and then quickly off to the Arizona Diamondbacks as Assistant General Manager. With the Red Sox he integrated analytics, video, and scouting to improve and streamline their system, something the Orioles drastically need improvement on. He is a communicator who can quickly understand a wide range of ideas and locate people to implement them. Sawdaye is effectively what Dan Duquette was seen as in the early 1990s.
Kyle Stark
The Pirates did it first. That is a common response to any major change in baseball these past several years seen as successful enough to implement all around. While the Orioles were quick to adapt defensive shifts, the Pirates were the standard bearer. Stark came onto the scene with the Indians and did a decent amount of analytics work for them, but show interest and ability on the developmental side. As the Pirates' farm director, he took an antiquated system and began to standardize it within the organizational, emphasizing not only the usage of analytics but how to communicate them. As an Assistant General Manager, his duties have expanded as well as the number of people working under him. Stark is similar to Sawdaye with perhaps one exception, Stark has had to face the realities of a small market club which narrows the room for error.
Two Names that are Found on the Rolodex
Ned Colletti
Colletti was reported to have interviewed with the Orioles earlier this season. Some dispute that report. Colletti fits more of the traditional Orioles perspective in finding an established and respected person who could immediately step into the position. That was what led to Pat Gillick, Syd Thrift, Jim Beattie, Andy MacPhail, and Dan Duquette. A firm resume was something that it always seemed like Peter Angelos looked for. And, it makes sense. If you do not really understand what is going on then you find people who have had success in the past. Colletti has had success, but it was largely considered a product of inheriting a strong developmental system and having extra cash to throw around. In the end, Colletti was dispatched for not being current with new approaches to baseball and repeatedly underwhelming on-field play.
Paul DePodesta
You may remember DePodesta from Superbad, 21 Jump Street, or Moneyball. Oh wait, that is Jonah Hill. You may remember DePodesta from the book Moneyball and how Beane greatly depended on him for those turn of the 2000s Athletics teams. You may also remember how he took that perspective to the Dodgers, clashed with the media, and was loudly and ceremoniously fired. You may also remember how he then was picked up by the Padres and then Mets before rocking the NFL when he was hired to helm the Browns franchise. You may also remember how the Browns franchise has been repeatedly criticized for thinking itself to be the smartest team in the front office as well as how it all went to pot this past offseason. Going to pot makes one wonder to what extent Paul DePodesta still runs things over there with a new General Manager in town with John Dorsey who turned over about 60% of the roster. DePodesta, with his former baseball success and analytical prowess a couple decades back, looks like a fresher version of Duquette.
Looking Forward
Realistically, I think Duquette is the right path that the Orioles would be capable of making. In terms of running an organization, I have more faith in him than I do with Showalter. It also helps that Duquette has seen success over such a fractured franchise. If wishes were horses, then moving forward with a young talent like Sawdaye or Stark would see obvious to me. If they want to go over second hand tires again, then DePodesta might be able to run the team in a more modern fashion than I think Colletti would be able to do.
31 August 2018
Orioles State of First Base: 2019-2023
As 2015 wound down, Peter Angelos spoke openly to local reporters. He noted how important it was to the Orioles to be able to retain their first baseman, Chris Davis. At that point in time, Davis was coming off his second best season of his career. It was the second year that put him in the discussion as being the Most Valuable Player. He certainly provided a great deal of production that the 2016 Orioles would need to account for and the comfortable way to think you are doing that is simply to re-sign those that performed the year before.
However, at the Depot there was concern. There was also hope as the Tigers were becoming more and more engaged with Davis. Dan Duquette tried to cover the gap by trading for Mark Trumbo with plans to play him at first base and to seek either a starting pitcher or a corner outfielder. While Davis was fairly exceptional in 2013 and 2015, his other seasons and 2014 were of concern. His profile was unique in MLB history as his contact rate appeared to be barely adequate to maintain his value and his body type looked like one whose athleticism would leave in a hurry.
As you know, fate drifted Davis back to the Orioles on what was considered conventionally a great deal with significant deferred money. Again, at the Depot and elsewhere there was more concern than celebration. What then transpired was worse than what we imagined. Davis, now with four years to go, is seemingly entrenched at first base and utterly terrible.
So what does it look like?
Absent from the list above is Mark Trumbo. We have spoke at length about him here at the Depot, but the organization seems hell bent to provide Trey Mancini experience there when Davis takes a blow. We think this has been a mistake as Trumbo repeatedly shows that he needs to be in the field to hit and that he is a hard negative in a corner outfield position, but it is what it is.
Mancini looks like a fringe first baseman, a fringe left fielder. Left field is doubly fringe as his athleticism continues to leave him, making his defense a lingering issue. Last year, we took a look at what could be expected of Mancini moving forward. He did not meet expectations this year which does only to decrease expectations moving forward. Those expectations were that of a fringe second division starter. Mancini does not look like a true answer to first base if Davis is ever dislodged.
Once you step into the minors, the answers find themselves difficult to find. On the surface, players like Aderlin Rodriguez, Wilson Garcia, and JC Escarra have performed well, but have done so at an advanced age. Seamus Curran and Collin Woody have done well to hold their own, but have struggled with contact. The margin of error for a first basemen is fairly small, so there are certainly doubts at their outcome. A couple years younger and those performances would look different.
Finally, the newest first baseman in the system is Jack Zoellner. Zoellner was a 10k senior sign in the ninth round by the Phillies a couple years ago. Zoellner was an analytics pick, someone who the Phillies developmental staff to play with. Apparently, the Phillies liked the launch angle and velocity his batted balls produced. He has yet to escape a rookie league. The Orioles now are taking on this 23 year old who has plenty of levels to move up.
Five Year Plan
The five year plan for first base appears largely to be crossing your fingers and hoping there is something left for Chris Davis to do. Mancini could be a fringe solution, but not exactly a player who could overwhelmingly dispatch Chris Davis. Beyond them, nothing is clear.
However, at the Depot there was concern. There was also hope as the Tigers were becoming more and more engaged with Davis. Dan Duquette tried to cover the gap by trading for Mark Trumbo with plans to play him at first base and to seek either a starting pitcher or a corner outfielder. While Davis was fairly exceptional in 2013 and 2015, his other seasons and 2014 were of concern. His profile was unique in MLB history as his contact rate appeared to be barely adequate to maintain his value and his body type looked like one whose athleticism would leave in a hurry.
As you know, fate drifted Davis back to the Orioles on what was considered conventionally a great deal with significant deferred money. Again, at the Depot and elsewhere there was more concern than celebration. What then transpired was worse than what we imagined. Davis, now with four years to go, is seemingly entrenched at first base and utterly terrible.
So what does it look like?
| Name | Age | Lev | BA | OBP | SLG | Pos Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis, Chris* | 32 | MAJ | .163 | .241 | .306 | 1B-102, DH-4 |
| Trey Mancini | 26 | MAJ | .235 | .299 | .386 | LF-96, DH-3, 1B-26 |
| Rodriguez, Aderlin | 26 | AA | .280 | .328 | .468 | 1B-102, 3B-11, DH-2, LF-2 |
| Garcia, Wilson# | 24 | H-A | .304 | .334 | .533 | 1B-54, DH-46, C-3 |
| Woody, Collin | 23 | H-A | .226 | .332 | .439 | 1B-48, 3B-16, LF-6, DH-2, P-1 |
| Curran, Seamus* | 20 | L-A,SS | .243 | .314 | .427 | 1B-65, DH-25 |
| Escarra, J.C.* | 23 | SS,H-A | .308 | .399 | .483 | 1B-44, DH-4 |
| Zoellner, Jack* | 23 | ROK | .236 | .364 | .422 | 1B-41, DH-6 |
Absent from the list above is Mark Trumbo. We have spoke at length about him here at the Depot, but the organization seems hell bent to provide Trey Mancini experience there when Davis takes a blow. We think this has been a mistake as Trumbo repeatedly shows that he needs to be in the field to hit and that he is a hard negative in a corner outfield position, but it is what it is.
Mancini looks like a fringe first baseman, a fringe left fielder. Left field is doubly fringe as his athleticism continues to leave him, making his defense a lingering issue. Last year, we took a look at what could be expected of Mancini moving forward. He did not meet expectations this year which does only to decrease expectations moving forward. Those expectations were that of a fringe second division starter. Mancini does not look like a true answer to first base if Davis is ever dislodged.
Once you step into the minors, the answers find themselves difficult to find. On the surface, players like Aderlin Rodriguez, Wilson Garcia, and JC Escarra have performed well, but have done so at an advanced age. Seamus Curran and Collin Woody have done well to hold their own, but have struggled with contact. The margin of error for a first basemen is fairly small, so there are certainly doubts at their outcome. A couple years younger and those performances would look different.
Finally, the newest first baseman in the system is Jack Zoellner. Zoellner was a 10k senior sign in the ninth round by the Phillies a couple years ago. Zoellner was an analytics pick, someone who the Phillies developmental staff to play with. Apparently, the Phillies liked the launch angle and velocity his batted balls produced. He has yet to escape a rookie league. The Orioles now are taking on this 23 year old who has plenty of levels to move up.
Five Year Plan
The five year plan for first base appears largely to be crossing your fingers and hoping there is something left for Chris Davis to do. Mancini could be a fringe solution, but not exactly a player who could overwhelmingly dispatch Chris Davis. Beyond them, nothing is clear.
29 August 2018
Orioles State of Second Base: 2019-2023
Previous Columns in this Series
Catcher | Centerfield
For the Orioles, second base is very similar to other positions, but not. Second base is a position where the club had mustered together a stalwart for the position for several years only to deal him away at the deadline. Somehow, when Jonathan Schoop left, the Orioles managed to acquire not only a good pitching prospect and a promising young shortstop prospect, but also Jonathan Villar. Villar, once considered a major role player in Milwaukee, frustrated that franchise. Wanting more power in their lineup, the Brewers acquired Schoop placed him at shortstop and tossed away Villar. As it stands, Villar has a bWAR of 0.8 for the Orioles and Schoop has scuttled to replacement level for the Brewers.
Let it be said though that Villar is only under contract through the 2020 year, which leaves the long-term future in doubt. Villar likely will not be a part of any competitive Orioles team. So what does the franchise depth look like now?
In the near term, Jonathan Villar is the solution. He will likely be manning second during some dire days in Baltimore. Beneath him in the immediate are all fringe players. Tim Beckham became the guy the Rays said he was. Valera and Sardinas are short term fill in kind of players. Steve Wilkerson might be able to give you some Todd Walker style action where he may be a late bloomer, but probably fills more of a corner infield and second base role.
Once you go beyond the MLB and AAA squads, you begin to see some low ceiling though interesting prospects. Rylan Bannon is a fairly interesting C level prospect. He is sort of coming in from a Ryan Flaherty direction. A player who carries some interesting offensive skills, but whose skillset may not be all that playable at the plate once he reaches the Majors. Instead, he seems to be making great strides with his play at second base and third base. Some scouts suggest he probably should be given a whirl at shortstop to see if he footwork and positioning holds up there. However, the optimistic outcome is that he rises to be a solid offensive contributor at second or third.
It will not be an easy path for Bannon. Undersized, he is not the kind of physical specimen that makes baseball organizations want to give him an abundance of opportunity. However, if he performs at each level, those opportunities will come. At the moment, the Orioles decided to challenge him once he came over to Baltimore by elevating him to from HiA ball to AA Bowie. That has not gone well. However, that is quite a jump in competition and Bannon is a tad young for the circuit.
Beyond Bannon, there are a couple players who do not seem exciting, but may grow into consideration. Preston Palmiero is seeing time this year at second base and he genuinely has the ability to provide a passable level of play there if his bat comes forward. While Palmiero has maintain a league average level of play as he moves up through the levels, the increase in power shown last summer did not take a step forward this year. There is some hope he can tap further into his swing to see another increase, but that is not a foregone conclusion.
However, the real players to watch are Mason McCoy and Adam Hall. McCoy is a bit old for Delmarva, but he showed great feel for second base. He also held his own at the plate, but, again, he is two years older than league average. The defensive angle is there, so you can envision a utility role. If his bat can make each step up, he might even be able to eek out a couple years as a second division starter. But, again, it is a long haul.
Adam Hall is a bit more interesting to watch. He hails from Canada and is a bit raw. He shows plus speed and an understanding of how to use it on the basepaths. Right now, he is logging time at shortstop, but his arm will likely push him over to second base. He exhibits good contact, can work a walk, and has a swing where doubles in the gap should start appearing more common.
Five Year Planning
The current solution is obvious in Villar and there will likely be little reason to extend him. Second basemen tend to get beaten up a bit and decline rapidly in their early thirties, which puts Villar in a bad position to be in place for the Orioles next run. Beyond him, you hope that someone like Bannon or Hall can emerge and take over. That said, it is far from probable to expect either to be able to perform at the level as neither are prospects that have garnered much attention. Regardless, there is much more optimism here than, say, catcher.
Catcher | Centerfield
For the Orioles, second base is very similar to other positions, but not. Second base is a position where the club had mustered together a stalwart for the position for several years only to deal him away at the deadline. Somehow, when Jonathan Schoop left, the Orioles managed to acquire not only a good pitching prospect and a promising young shortstop prospect, but also Jonathan Villar. Villar, once considered a major role player in Milwaukee, frustrated that franchise. Wanting more power in their lineup, the Brewers acquired Schoop placed him at shortstop and tossed away Villar. As it stands, Villar has a bWAR of 0.8 for the Orioles and Schoop has scuttled to replacement level for the Brewers.
Let it be said though that Villar is only under contract through the 2020 year, which leaves the long-term future in doubt. Villar likely will not be a part of any competitive Orioles team. So what does the franchise depth look like now?
| Name | Age | Lev | BA | OBP | SLG | Pos Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villar, Jonathan# | 27 | MAJ,AAA | .274 | .334 | .403 | 2B-99, SS-3 |
| Beckham, Tim | 28 | MAJ,AAA,AA | .213 | .275 | .342 | 3B-42, SS-39, 2B-3, DH-2 |
| Valera, Breyvic # | 26 | AAA,MAJ | .258 | .332 | .385 | 2B-44, SS-27, 3B-22, LF-9, CF-2, DH-2, RF-1 |
| Sardinas, Luis# | 25 | AAA,MAJ | .260 | .296 | .383 | SS-36, 2B-20, 3B-8, DH-3, LF-1 |
| Wilkerson, Steve # | 26 | AAA,AA,MAJ,ROK | .259 | .315 | .431 | 2B-14, 3B-11, LF-4, SS-4, RF-1, 1B-1 |
| Bannon, Rylan | 22 | H-A,AA | .273 | .381 | .512 | 3B-56, 2B-47, DH-13 |
| Palmeiro, Preston* | 23 | H-A | .253 | .311 | .405 | 2B-107, 1B-20, DH-3 |
| McCoy, Mason | 23 | L-A | .265 | .329 | .375 | SS-88, 2B-28, DH-1 |
| Torres, Alexis | 20 | SS,L-A,H-A | .251 | .326 | .359 | 2B-51, DH-4, SS-1 |
| Hall, Adam | 19 | SS | .304 | .382 | .392 | SS-54, 2B-4 |
In the near term, Jonathan Villar is the solution. He will likely be manning second during some dire days in Baltimore. Beneath him in the immediate are all fringe players. Tim Beckham became the guy the Rays said he was. Valera and Sardinas are short term fill in kind of players. Steve Wilkerson might be able to give you some Todd Walker style action where he may be a late bloomer, but probably fills more of a corner infield and second base role.
Once you go beyond the MLB and AAA squads, you begin to see some low ceiling though interesting prospects. Rylan Bannon is a fairly interesting C level prospect. He is sort of coming in from a Ryan Flaherty direction. A player who carries some interesting offensive skills, but whose skillset may not be all that playable at the plate once he reaches the Majors. Instead, he seems to be making great strides with his play at second base and third base. Some scouts suggest he probably should be given a whirl at shortstop to see if he footwork and positioning holds up there. However, the optimistic outcome is that he rises to be a solid offensive contributor at second or third.
It will not be an easy path for Bannon. Undersized, he is not the kind of physical specimen that makes baseball organizations want to give him an abundance of opportunity. However, if he performs at each level, those opportunities will come. At the moment, the Orioles decided to challenge him once he came over to Baltimore by elevating him to from HiA ball to AA Bowie. That has not gone well. However, that is quite a jump in competition and Bannon is a tad young for the circuit.
Beyond Bannon, there are a couple players who do not seem exciting, but may grow into consideration. Preston Palmiero is seeing time this year at second base and he genuinely has the ability to provide a passable level of play there if his bat comes forward. While Palmiero has maintain a league average level of play as he moves up through the levels, the increase in power shown last summer did not take a step forward this year. There is some hope he can tap further into his swing to see another increase, but that is not a foregone conclusion.
However, the real players to watch are Mason McCoy and Adam Hall. McCoy is a bit old for Delmarva, but he showed great feel for second base. He also held his own at the plate, but, again, he is two years older than league average. The defensive angle is there, so you can envision a utility role. If his bat can make each step up, he might even be able to eek out a couple years as a second division starter. But, again, it is a long haul.
Adam Hall is a bit more interesting to watch. He hails from Canada and is a bit raw. He shows plus speed and an understanding of how to use it on the basepaths. Right now, he is logging time at shortstop, but his arm will likely push him over to second base. He exhibits good contact, can work a walk, and has a swing where doubles in the gap should start appearing more common.
Five Year Planning
The current solution is obvious in Villar and there will likely be little reason to extend him. Second basemen tend to get beaten up a bit and decline rapidly in their early thirties, which puts Villar in a bad position to be in place for the Orioles next run. Beyond him, you hope that someone like Bannon or Hall can emerge and take over. That said, it is far from probable to expect either to be able to perform at the level as neither are prospects that have garnered much attention. Regardless, there is much more optimism here than, say, catcher.
27 August 2018
Orioles State of Centerfield: 2019-2023
Other columns in this series:
Catcher
Like so much of the Orioles, the next five years fills the franchise with so many opportunities where previously there were none. One of those is ceterfield where recently we have seen Adam Jones, the Orioles stalwart in centerfield over the past decade, hand his reign over to a new hope: Cedric Mullins. Mullins received a warm welcome from the fans and garners great interest. So far, despite a hip injury slowing him down, Mullins' performance at the plate is exceptional while his defense shows promise of the feats he achieved in the minors. Never a prominent prospect, though one we have had our eye on since the beginning, Mullins carries some questions about whether he will secure centerfield or find himself a transient talent, like Luis Matos.
Taking a look at the centerfield outlook for the franchise, we see these options:
There is a positive and a negative to immediately take away from the list above. The positive is that the Orioles have four young options at centerfield in Mullins, Diaz, Hays, and McKenna. The negative is that each of those prospects have significant questions as to whether they truly are options in centerfield. Another negative that has yet to break the horizon is that there does not appear to be any promising centerfielders below Bowie.
The elder statesmen are two impending free agents: Adam Jones and Craig Gentry. As we noted in an earlier column, it is difficult to see how Adam Jones continues on this club given the need to provide opportunities for younger players and to feed Jones the playing time he earns. Gentry, at 34, is a useful outfielder on the bench. He provides defense at all three outfield positions and has some level of offense adequate for a backup outfielder. That said, his profile is not a starter's profile and he is well into the time frame where one can expect performance to crash.
Joey Rickard at 27 feels younger than he really is given how he broke into the Baltimore scene a couple years ago in the Rule 5 draft. While he has the athleticism to play all three outfield positions, his skills have not exactly developed to utilize those skills and he tends to field without caution. The offensive profile for Rickard could be useful, but over 700 PA into Rickard's career and it appears he is not dependable to play full time.
Further up in this post, I mentioned Cedric Mullins. Back in his Delmarva days in 2016 I summarized him as:
Diaz and Hays can be lumped together here. Both have promising bats (Diaz more so) and both, if you squint, have the potential to pull off a center field (Diaz more so). The reality though is if either of them are occupying centerfield instead of Mullins that the plan is testing the rails. While both look to be good right fielders (though some doubt Hays out there), both are seen as fringe defenders in center. Their bats would need to speak up a bit more to manage lackluster gloves. All in all, fringe rightfield star profiles drop to decent centerfield role player projection in center.
Ryan McKenna is the last name on this draw. McKenna is the kind of player who gets an amazing amount of positive coverage because he just went bananas against some fairly poor pitching combined with hitting them where they ain't.
What makes his A+ stint in 2018 so amazing, a .436 BABIP that super charged his batted ball production. What feels more genuine is that his rates returned to expectations in Bowie. To be clear, none of this is really bad news. He is a fairly young player for the levels who is holding his own. A 21 year old providing useful play for AA Bowie is an achievement. His struggles there though reinforce some of the issues seen before and reduce the expectations some had for him with his demolishing of Frederick. Perhaps slightly concerning is the evaporation of his running game, which may point to his physical development impeding upon the average/plus speed he was showing in previous seasons.
As it stands, he looks like a lesser version of Cedric Mullins, which makes the profile redundant. However, redundancy is good in the minors because Mullins certainly is not a sure thing.
Five Year Planning
While the catching scenario looks like all the eggs in the basket broke, center field has a clear, though wobbly, answer in Cedric Mullins and a backup answer a couple years off in Ryan McKenna. Yes, it is more likely that both of them fail, but that is simply what prospects do. Both though provide great fourth outfielder options and should be able to provide the club with talent similar to Gentry or Rickard. That might feel like a loss, but that sort of bench depth is valuable and less you focus spending on higher targets. And, well, the ceiling outcome is that both are viable starting center fielders.
All in all, this is a good state of affairs.
Catcher
Like so much of the Orioles, the next five years fills the franchise with so many opportunities where previously there were none. One of those is ceterfield where recently we have seen Adam Jones, the Orioles stalwart in centerfield over the past decade, hand his reign over to a new hope: Cedric Mullins. Mullins received a warm welcome from the fans and garners great interest. So far, despite a hip injury slowing him down, Mullins' performance at the plate is exceptional while his defense shows promise of the feats he achieved in the minors. Never a prominent prospect, though one we have had our eye on since the beginning, Mullins carries some questions about whether he will secure centerfield or find himself a transient talent, like Luis Matos.
Taking a look at the centerfield outlook for the franchise, we see these options:
| Name | Age | Lev | BA | OBP | SLG | Pos Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones, Adam | 32 | MAJ | .278 | .311 | .423 | CF-105, RF-12, DH-3 |
| Gentry, Craig | 34 | MAJ,H-A,AA | .271 | .324 | .324 | LF-31, RF-26, CF-16, DH-2 |
| Rickard, Joey | 27 | AAA,MAJ | .255 | .344 | .421 | CF-37, RF-35, LF-30 |
| Mullins, Cedric# | 23 | AAA,AA,MAJ | .291 | .351 | .476 | CF-118, DH-3, LF-3 |
| Diaz, Yusniel | 21 | AA | .281 | .390 | .438 | RF-51, CF-35, DH-2, LF-2 |
| Hays, Austin | 22 | AA,SS | .232 | .262 | .386 | RF-39, LF-13, CF-11, DH-8 |
| McKenna, Ryan | 21 | H-A,AA | .319 | .412 | .463 | CF-114, LF-3, RF-3, DH-1 |
There is a positive and a negative to immediately take away from the list above. The positive is that the Orioles have four young options at centerfield in Mullins, Diaz, Hays, and McKenna. The negative is that each of those prospects have significant questions as to whether they truly are options in centerfield. Another negative that has yet to break the horizon is that there does not appear to be any promising centerfielders below Bowie.
The elder statesmen are two impending free agents: Adam Jones and Craig Gentry. As we noted in an earlier column, it is difficult to see how Adam Jones continues on this club given the need to provide opportunities for younger players and to feed Jones the playing time he earns. Gentry, at 34, is a useful outfielder on the bench. He provides defense at all three outfield positions and has some level of offense adequate for a backup outfielder. That said, his profile is not a starter's profile and he is well into the time frame where one can expect performance to crash.
Joey Rickard at 27 feels younger than he really is given how he broke into the Baltimore scene a couple years ago in the Rule 5 draft. While he has the athleticism to play all three outfield positions, his skills have not exactly developed to utilize those skills and he tends to field without caution. The offensive profile for Rickard could be useful, but over 700 PA into Rickard's career and it appears he is not dependable to play full time.
Further up in this post, I mentioned Cedric Mullins. Back in his Delmarva days in 2016 I summarized him as:
Cedric Mullins is a SWINO (Switch Hitter in Name Only). He rakes right handers and a left handed bat and becomes flummoxed by southpaws (115/90). He profiles as a backup centerfielder, but does not have the size/strength to be expected to show well in left field. With decent, speed, contact, and gap strength, we should see him progress steadily through the minors. I imagine he might be ready for a 4th or 5th outfielder role in 2019 or 2020.I think he has fit that projection to a T. He still struggles greatly against left handed pitching. In 2017, 863 vs 604 and 859 vs 707 this year. Having a strong bat against right handers makes Mullins a starting option in centerfield as he will be facing a great number of right handed pitchers. However, it does make him a bit of a liability deeper in games when opposing managers can slip in a favorable matchup. The defense also still looks great. Defensive metrics view him as a bit sloppy right now with MLB data, but I think that is more likely do to some situational issues. He should be fine long term and may even be a legitimate starter if he can maintain his handling of right handers and becomes adequate against lefties. That said, there is no great, grand ceiling similar to what a young Adam Jones had to offer. Mullins offers the club the ceiling of a solid starter who might rattle off one season that garners All Star attention. And, yeah, much of this was said of Luis Matos as well.
Diaz and Hays can be lumped together here. Both have promising bats (Diaz more so) and both, if you squint, have the potential to pull off a center field (Diaz more so). The reality though is if either of them are occupying centerfield instead of Mullins that the plan is testing the rails. While both look to be good right fielders (though some doubt Hays out there), both are seen as fringe defenders in center. Their bats would need to speak up a bit more to manage lackluster gloves. All in all, fringe rightfield star profiles drop to decent centerfield role player projection in center.
Ryan McKenna is the last name on this draw. McKenna is the kind of player who gets an amazing amount of positive coverage because he just went bananas against some fairly poor pitching combined with hitting them where they ain't.
| Year | Age | AgeDif | Lev | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | -1.5 | Rk | .265 | .366 | .324 | .689 |
| 2016 | 19 | -2.1 | A- | .241 | .320 | .309 | .629 |
| 2017 | 20 | -1.5 | A | .256 | .331 | .380 | .712 |
| 2018 | 21 | -3.3 | AA | .242 | .338 | .340 | .678 |
| 2018 | 21 | -1.4 | A+ | .377 | .467 | .556 | 1.023 |
| All | All | All | .278 | .362 | .397 | .759 |
What makes his A+ stint in 2018 so amazing, a .436 BABIP that super charged his batted ball production. What feels more genuine is that his rates returned to expectations in Bowie. To be clear, none of this is really bad news. He is a fairly young player for the levels who is holding his own. A 21 year old providing useful play for AA Bowie is an achievement. His struggles there though reinforce some of the issues seen before and reduce the expectations some had for him with his demolishing of Frederick. Perhaps slightly concerning is the evaporation of his running game, which may point to his physical development impeding upon the average/plus speed he was showing in previous seasons.
As it stands, he looks like a lesser version of Cedric Mullins, which makes the profile redundant. However, redundancy is good in the minors because Mullins certainly is not a sure thing.
Five Year Planning
While the catching scenario looks like all the eggs in the basket broke, center field has a clear, though wobbly, answer in Cedric Mullins and a backup answer a couple years off in Ryan McKenna. Yes, it is more likely that both of them fail, but that is simply what prospects do. Both though provide great fourth outfielder options and should be able to provide the club with talent similar to Gentry or Rickard. That might feel like a loss, but that sort of bench depth is valuable and less you focus spending on higher targets. And, well, the ceiling outcome is that both are viable starting center fielders.
All in all, this is a good state of affairs.
24 August 2018
Orioles State of Catching: 2019-2023
The last two seasons brought about a certain kind of uncertainty that was last familiar in 2009: who exactly is catching for the Orioles. The stability that Matt Wieters brought to the organization was shouldered last year by Wellington Castillo having a rather remarkable year. This year, so much hope was placed on Caleb Joseph and his resurgent 2017 as well as the up and coming Chance Sisco, a catching prospect we have written here should be moved off the plate for several years now.
2017 came out as "Nuts!" Caleb Joseph, now in his age 32 season (yes, 32), did not dream up a 2017, 2015 or 2014 season, but regressed to be more in his 2016 form. Chance Sisco (again, a player we said was not a catcher) appeared to suggest repeatedly that not only is he not a catcher, but perhaps his contact oriented approach at the plate may not exactly transition well to the Major Leagues. The conventional wisdom now has gravitated toward our view that Sisco is actually not much of a prospect.
This leaves us to wonder what exactly is the situation to look like at catcher for the next several seasons, which is a bit abstract as the organization lacks a true heir. Here is a list of the most notable right now in the organization:
Caleb Joseph is an interesting question. The Orioles have two more option years on him and he should come in around 1.5 to 3 MM a season during those two years. That is a fairly cheap price to pay for a catcher who has a good ability to handle a pitching staff and can have decent runs at the plate. The negative that has chased Joseph all these years is that he wears down fast. That was seen as the issue why he looked like a non-prospect bat first catcher in the minors. When he was forced into a MLB position when Wieters went down several years ago, his workload decreased, and he performed much, much better behind and beside the plate. As he gets older, he likely will need more and more rest. Regardless, he is not a starter and he is certainly entering into non-tender territory.
Chance Sisco was originally seen within the organization and among scouting circles as a natural pairing to Joseph. Sisco, hitting from the left side, could serve as a strong platoon partner to Joseph. Sisco has had two red flags on him: (1) his bat is heavily dependent on contact and not much else and (2) his defense is not adequate. If you are a veteran reader of the site, then you know that bad defense amateur catchers turn into bad defense professional catchers. That is fairly dependable and, unfortunately, Sisco is showing that with him projected to be around a -15 run defensive catcher over 125 games. It will take a significant leap from his bat to cover that spread or, hopefully, an unexpected improvement behind the plate. As a scout told me once, "You are right, the Orioles should have traded Sisco when teams were asking for him last year at the deadline."
Behind them is Austin Wynns or "Caleb Joseph, Jr.". Wynn is a player the Orioles might go with if Joseph at 2 MM is less appealing than Wynns at 0.5 MM. Neither are particularly remarkable players at this point, but both appear to be solid defense first backups. A true defensive catcher is hard to find, but that typically requires some measure of offense which is an aspect that Wynns has difficulty with. He may be more suited to ride the Baltimore to Norfolk shuttle until pressed into a 25 man roster position or moving on when the options run out.
Martin Cervenka looks like "Caleb Joseph, III". This, of course, makes it look like perhaps Caleb Joseph might be non-tendered.
Brett Cumberland is the last player I will discuss here (feel free to ask me about any of the other catchers in the system if you wish in the comments). Cumberland was arguably the best player the Orioles got back from the Braves in the Gausman deal (unless you are like me and think the best player is Jean Carlos Encarnacion). Cumberland was a second round overslot pick of the Braves. He had a very promising bat and looked nothing like a catcher behind the plate, but the Braves had hope. Scouting reports on his defense were poor and the bat looked a bit overmatched in his first couple years, but 2018 has some helium attached to him. He reportedly made major strides in his footwork, which has helped him not only block balls better but also greatly reduce his pop times to second base.
The hope is that Cumberland's bat continues to develop and the improvement seen in his defense carries forward, perhaps even improving. Within the entire system, Cumberland is the only catcher who looks to have an upside, but again it is attached to aspects that are difficult for a player to typically improve upon. That outlook looks much better today than it did a year ago, so maybe he is one of the rare ones to make the transition.
Below are five year projections of WAR (set to 120 games):
Five Year Planning
What the above tells us is that the Orioles have no firm solution for their catching position. They appear to have a bevy of backup options with different makeups, but no single player who has the characteristics of a full fledged starting catcher. Two, Sisco and Cumberland, may be able to thread the needle and achieve that starting catcher status, but the club should not feel obligated to depend on that. The position should be seen as wide open with active processes to find a long term solution.
2017 came out as "Nuts!" Caleb Joseph, now in his age 32 season (yes, 32), did not dream up a 2017, 2015 or 2014 season, but regressed to be more in his 2016 form. Chance Sisco (again, a player we said was not a catcher) appeared to suggest repeatedly that not only is he not a catcher, but perhaps his contact oriented approach at the plate may not exactly transition well to the Major Leagues. The conventional wisdom now has gravitated toward our view that Sisco is actually not much of a prospect.
This leaves us to wonder what exactly is the situation to look like at catcher for the next several seasons, which is a bit abstract as the organization lacks a true heir. Here is a list of the most notable right now in the organization:
| Name | Age | Lev | BA | OBP | SLG | Pos Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph, Caleb | 32 | MAJ,AAA | .232 | .283 | .345 | C-77, DH-9, 1B-1 |
| Sisco, Chance * | 23 | MAJ,AAA | .208 | .304 | .304 | C-81 |
| Wynns, Austin | 27 | AAA,MAJ | .241 | .292 | .377 | C-62, DH-2 |
| Cervenka, Martin | 25 | AA | .256 | .313 | .449 | C-86, DH-3 |
| Cumberland, Brett# | 23 | H-A,AA | .223 | .352 | .382 | C-67, DH-27 |
| Fajardo, Daniel | 23 | H-A | .280 | .315 | .381 | C-52, DH-2 |
| Quevedo, Yojhan | 24 | H-A | .287 | .312 | .427 | C-33, DH-5 |
| Breazeale, Ben* | 23 | L-A | .238 | .340 | .313 | C-53, DH-13 |
| Carrillo, Jean | 21 | L-A | .250 | .322 | .308 | C-60, DH-1 |
| Roberts, Cody | 22 | SS | .272 | .321 | .368 | C-25, DH-9, RF-1 |
Caleb Joseph is an interesting question. The Orioles have two more option years on him and he should come in around 1.5 to 3 MM a season during those two years. That is a fairly cheap price to pay for a catcher who has a good ability to handle a pitching staff and can have decent runs at the plate. The negative that has chased Joseph all these years is that he wears down fast. That was seen as the issue why he looked like a non-prospect bat first catcher in the minors. When he was forced into a MLB position when Wieters went down several years ago, his workload decreased, and he performed much, much better behind and beside the plate. As he gets older, he likely will need more and more rest. Regardless, he is not a starter and he is certainly entering into non-tender territory.
Chance Sisco was originally seen within the organization and among scouting circles as a natural pairing to Joseph. Sisco, hitting from the left side, could serve as a strong platoon partner to Joseph. Sisco has had two red flags on him: (1) his bat is heavily dependent on contact and not much else and (2) his defense is not adequate. If you are a veteran reader of the site, then you know that bad defense amateur catchers turn into bad defense professional catchers. That is fairly dependable and, unfortunately, Sisco is showing that with him projected to be around a -15 run defensive catcher over 125 games. It will take a significant leap from his bat to cover that spread or, hopefully, an unexpected improvement behind the plate. As a scout told me once, "You are right, the Orioles should have traded Sisco when teams were asking for him last year at the deadline."
Behind them is Austin Wynns or "Caleb Joseph, Jr.". Wynn is a player the Orioles might go with if Joseph at 2 MM is less appealing than Wynns at 0.5 MM. Neither are particularly remarkable players at this point, but both appear to be solid defense first backups. A true defensive catcher is hard to find, but that typically requires some measure of offense which is an aspect that Wynns has difficulty with. He may be more suited to ride the Baltimore to Norfolk shuttle until pressed into a 25 man roster position or moving on when the options run out.
Martin Cervenka looks like "Caleb Joseph, III". This, of course, makes it look like perhaps Caleb Joseph might be non-tendered.
Brett Cumberland is the last player I will discuss here (feel free to ask me about any of the other catchers in the system if you wish in the comments). Cumberland was arguably the best player the Orioles got back from the Braves in the Gausman deal (unless you are like me and think the best player is Jean Carlos Encarnacion). Cumberland was a second round overslot pick of the Braves. He had a very promising bat and looked nothing like a catcher behind the plate, but the Braves had hope. Scouting reports on his defense were poor and the bat looked a bit overmatched in his first couple years, but 2018 has some helium attached to him. He reportedly made major strides in his footwork, which has helped him not only block balls better but also greatly reduce his pop times to second base.
The hope is that Cumberland's bat continues to develop and the improvement seen in his defense carries forward, perhaps even improving. Within the entire system, Cumberland is the only catcher who looks to have an upside, but again it is attached to aspects that are difficult for a player to typically improve upon. That outlook looks much better today than it did a year ago, so maybe he is one of the rare ones to make the transition.
Below are five year projections of WAR (set to 120 games):
| 120g proj | Joseph | Sisco | Wynns | Cervenka | Cumberland |
| 2019 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
Five Year Planning
What the above tells us is that the Orioles have no firm solution for their catching position. They appear to have a bevy of backup options with different makeups, but no single player who has the characteristics of a full fledged starting catcher. Two, Sisco and Cumberland, may be able to thread the needle and achieve that starting catcher status, but the club should not feel obligated to depend on that. The position should be seen as wide open with active processes to find a long term solution.
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