Showing posts with label Jair Jurrjens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jair Jurrjens. Show all posts

24 February 2013

Sunday Comics: Say Cheese!

I love photo day. I love it even more when the players don't take it so seriously or take otherwise stupid pictures so that I can make fun of them. (Affectionately.)

Clicking on the cartoons will take you to the actual photos I've drawn.








Yes, the Chris Davis image is on my personal Tumblr. Feel free to follow me if you don't mind history, comedians, Top Gear, and pictures of my cats and Old English Sheepdogs along with baseball and cartoons. 

20 February 2013

Dan Duquette's Grand Pitching Plan: Its Jurrjens Time!

Last year, Dan Duquette disappointed many an Orioles fan.  I will not go through most of the transactions, but here is a subset involving acquisitions of pitching talent:
November 22, 2011 - Signed P Miguel Socolovich
December 8, 2011 - Traded P Jarret Martin and UTL Tyler Henson for P Dana Eveland
December 13, 2011 - Signed P Tsuyoshi Wada
December 16, 2011 - Signed P John Link
January 4, 2012 - Signed P Willie Eyre
January 9, 2012 - Signed P Ross Wolf
January 10, 2012 - Signed P Wei-Yin Chen
January 18, 2012 - Signed P Armando Galarraga and P Oscar Villareal
January 20, 2012 - Signed P Dennys Reyes
January 21, 2012 - Signed P Chris George
So...how inspiring is that list?  Faced with a mess of a rotation at the end of 2011, Duquette decided to keep Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Brad Bergesen, and Zach Britton.  At this point, he was also far along in sending Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies for Jason Hammel.  Duquette decided to collect additional bottom tier arms in Eveland, Wada, Wolf, Chen, and Galarraga.  What this does is that it allows you to play the entire field to figure out your actual rotation.  If you collect a bunch of bottom fringe arms, it enables you to cast away players who do not perform well with those who might be doing well in spring training or in the minors.  That gives you a lot of freedom by not hindering the Major League club with big money deals on players who will not agree with being sent to the minors.

The key though is looking at this group and being able to discern which players are the useful ones and which are the ones the team should feel free to expose on waivers.  It can certainly be argued that the Orioles made mistakes by designating Alfredo Simon instead of releasing Kevin Gregg or designating Brad Bergesen instead of releasing Kevin Gregg when the team acquired Omar Quintanilla.  Both Simon and Bergesen were lights out coming out of the bullpen for the Reds and Diamondbacks, respectively.  Their loss was not felt much by the Orioles because they had a massive amount of relief arms that could fill in any role.  However, again, the bulky contract given to Kevin Gregg probably is a big reason why he stayed instead of the lower cost pitchers like Simon or Bergesen.  But, yes, they were not big losses and the team, with a large stable of fringe arms, was able to find effective replacements.

The point is that if you acquire a great deal of low end talent, you provide yourself with cheap opportunity to find talent or performance that was overlooked.  It can be argued that signing a half dozen sixth starters is much more useful than signing someone like Joe Saunders to a three year deal when he likely represents 4th or 5th slot performance for a first division team.

Why bring all of this up?
February 15, 2013 - Orioles sign starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens and designate for assigment.

Jurrjens is familiar with many an Orioles fan due to his appearance in many a Adam Jones to Atlanta deal.  Based on what information there is available it seems an impasse arose when the Braves offered Martin Prado, who was recently a big piece in a deal for Justin Upton, Jair Jurrjens, and a couple fringe low minor arms for Jones.  The Orioles balked and demanded that two of the following be added: Brandon Beachy, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino.  Unfortunately for the Braves, they broke off talks as 20/20 hindsight shows that offering Jurrjens, Teheran, and Vizcaino would have been a steal for them.  The value of those three has tanked.  Beachy wound up going under the knife and won't be much of a contributor until 2014.  Delgado is going West in the Upton deal.  Mike Minor is healthy and looks like a good mid-rotation arm.  In other words, it is probably a good thing the Orioles kept Jones.

Why did Jurrjens' value drop even though he was dominating the NL halfway through the 2011 season?  Injuries have led to Jurrjens coming over the top more in his release.  Changes in his mechanics have led to a higher release point, poorer command, and reduced velocity.  He used to sit around 91 mph and creep up to 96 mph, but injuries lowered that to 89 mph, topping out at 91.  That may not seem like a major drop in velocity, but you can consider Chris Tillman here.  Tillman, of course, uses a different repertoire, but losing two or three mph results in a lot less swing and misses.  He saw an increase in batter contact from 83 to 90% with much of that, amazing, coming on contct with pitches out of the zone.  If players are connecting, then it increases the likelihood that they will be getting on base.  Based on Jurrjens velocity at the end of last year (before a groin injury ended his season), he was still an upper 80s pitcher.

Ok, so why did Duquette signed a low end pitcher with three seasons upended by leg injuries and continued reduced velocity?  Well, he is cheap and he can be optioned if he makes the 40 man roster.  Jurrjens can be optioned to Norfolk this year, go through arbitration next year, and be optioned again in 2014.  That maneuverability make Jurrjens a player that you can shuttle back and forth between Baltimore and Norfolk, hoping he gets back on the right track.  This would be similar to how Tillman and Matusz were treated. Hoarding and moving fringe rotation talent does seem to be a characteristics of this regime.

Here is a probably starting pitching depth chart:
Jason Hammel
Wei-Yin Chen
Chris Tillman
Miguel Gonzalez
Zach Britton
Jake Arrieta
Steve Johnson
Brian Matusz
Jair Jurrjens
Tommy Hunter
Dylan Bundy
Tsuyoshi Wada
I would group Hammel and Chen as locks.  Tillman would have to do something awfully wrong to get bumped.  Gonzalez, Britton, and Arrieta are likely in some measure in a fight for two positions.  Johnson will have a hard time finding an in while Matusz will be given an opportunity if he is dominant in Spring Training.  Of the rest, Jurrjens and Bundy are the two who could race up the chart and nestle in behind Hammel and Chen.  On April 2nd, Jurrjens has a better probability to have done that.  On August 1st, Bundy would be the one with the better probability.

09 February 2013

Jair Jurrjens and Brian Matusz' Future

The Orioles have signed former Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens, who becomes the tenth realistic candidate for the Orioles' starting rotation. This depth is especially good news for one candidate, Brian Matusz. After a rapid rise to the major leagues and a promising debut, Matusz has struggled during the past two seasons. The Orioles' starting pitching depth may give Matusz a chance to get back on track without the pressure of being in a contending team's starting rotation.

To review, Matusz reached the major leagues in 2009, his first professional season. In 2010 he was in the Orioles' rotation the whole season, and pitched well, given that he was a pitcher in his second professional season and that the Orioles were a bad team. However, he missed the first two months of the 2011 season after he being injured in spring training. When he returned, he had one of the worst seasons ever by a pitcher — 12 starts, 49 2/3 innings, 1-9 record, and a 10.69 ERA. The Orioles hoped that his off-season was due to his injury, and he began 2012 in the Orioles' starting rotation. While his 2012 ERA was less than half of his 2011 ERA, that still wasn't very good, and he was sent down to Norfolk. Toward the end of the season, the addition of Joe Saunders settled the starting rotation somewhat. Matusz pitched out of the bullpen because the Orioles were hoping that he could help them as a left-handed spot relief pitcher.

Matusz has pitched for Norfolk in both 2011 and 2012 — he bypassed AAA on his initial surge to the big leagues — and I actually haven't seen Matusz pitch very often. I saw him make two starts at Norfolk in 2011, one during his rehab from the spring-training injury and one later in the season when he was trying to recapture his form. By chance, I didn't see him make a start at Norfolk in 2012, and I saw him make only two relief appearances.
The first 2011 game in which I saw Matusz pitch was his rehab start on May 27, against Columbus. Matusz pitched five innings plus two batters, giving up one run on four hits and one walk, with seven strikeouts. Although his line resulted in a game score of 61, he didn't pass the eye test. He fell behind eleven of the nineteen batters he faced and of his 84 pitches 28 were fouled off.

The second 2011 game in which I saw Matusz pitch was August 6, against Rochester, after he had struggled in Baltimore. Given a 7-0 lead after two innings, Matusz went seven, giving up one run on five hits and two walks, striking out 6. His game score was 67. Matusz pitched well, although it's hard to tell how much was Matusz and how much was Rochester giving up. When Norfolk took a 9-1 lead after the fifth inning, Matusz retired six straight Rochester batters in the sixth and seventh, using only 23 pitches.

The first 2012 game in which I saw Matusz pitch was August 15, against Gwinnett. Gwinnett's starting pitcher in that game was the newly-signed Oriole Jair Jurrjens, who left in the third inning with an injury. Matusz entered the game in the top of the seventh with a 5-0 lead. In the seventh, he struck out the side while allowing a run on a walk and two singles. In the eighth, he walked the leadoff batter on five pitches before retiring the next three batters on six pitches. In the ninth, he retired the first two batters, gave up a run on two singles and a double, and finally getting the third out on a fly ball to the warning track. By pitching three innings and preserving a lead, Matusz earned a save, becoming one of the fifteen Tides' pitchers to earn a save.

The second and final 2012 game in which I saw Matusz pitch was August 19, against Charlotte. Matusz entered the game with two out in the top of the seventh. The Orioles had a 4-2 lead, but Charlotte had runners on first and second. Matusz retired Jordan Danks on a fly ball. Matusz stayed in to pitch the eighth and surrendered the lead, on a walk, single, balk, wild pitch, and single. Zach Phillips relieved him with the score 4-4. Phillips got the last out of the eighth and then was credited with the win when Ryan Flaherty homered in the bottom of the inning.

Although he has been regarded as a top prospect, I haven't been very impressed with the games I've seen him pitch. Even when he's pitched well, he didn't have an overpowering fastball and his command was far from perfect. I still can't write Brian Matusz off; here's an example of where limited observations may be misleading. He was so good a prospect, and so promising in his first season-and-a-third, that I think there's still a good pitcher there. I am confident in saying that if he'll be a significant pitcher, it will be as a starting pitcher, and not as a closer. He's got starting pitcher stuff, not relief ace stuff.

And this is where Jair Jurrjens — and the rest of the Orioles starting pitchers — come in. With ten realistic candidates for the starting rotation, the Orioles will have the luxury of starting Matusz in the bullpen or in the Norfolk rotation. If Matusz does, in fact, have the ability to be a good pitcher, he'll have the chance to rebuild his confidence in low-pressure environments. If he does earn a spot in the Orioles bullpen, he can still mature into a good starting pitcher. There have been many successful starting pitchers, especially left-handed pitchers, who pitched in the bullpen for a time at the start of his career; Jimmy Key, Kenny Rogers, David Wells, and Darren Oliver are all examples. If Matusz is to have a successful pitching career, and the Orioles are to get something out of him, I think Matusz should pitch a season in the bullpen and get another shot at the rotation in 2014, or start the season in the Norfolk rotation.

27 January 2013

Sunday Comics: Oh, Look, Duquette Did Something

So we signed Jair Jurrjens. More than anything, I like his name.

At least Dan Duquette made a move, so we know he's not dead or anything.