08 April 2014

Paper Orioles (4/8/2014): Please Remain Calm

As I mentioned in the Power Rankings for ESPN, a 2-4 stretch during the middle of the summer against top notch competitors would be irritating and frustrating, but it would not be an impetus to gnash teeth and question any orange tinged faith in your possession.  That said, it certainly is not a good thing.  In our model, it resulted in the Orioles being 1.2 games behind the pace they need to reach a Wild Card.  That can be overcome quite easily.

Here are the current model projections:

mJS PWE mBP Parcells fWAR Mean
3/31/2014 85.7 81.0 78.0 81.0 81.0 81.3
4/7/2014 84.8 52.3 76.9 54.0 47.3 63.0

As you would probably expect, the in-season projection models I am using will be jumping around wildly at the beginning of the season.  The mJS and mBP take more of a long view and will not be unsettled as much by early season troubles.

What has not been added to these projections is the MWAP (Manager Wins Above Projected).  We had Buck worth 4.1 MWAP.  At this point in the season, his MWAP moving forward would be about 3.9 if you wish to follow along.  In terms of projections, we still have that as very strong for a Wild Card berth.  That is not the case for the other projections with or without the Buck bump.

A refresher for those who may be unfamiliar with the models mentioned above:
mJS - My own modeling using ZiPS and my own assumptions of playing time.
PWE - The infamous Pythagorean-named projection model.
mBP - Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds modeling.
Parcells - Assuming wins are the definitive definition of a team's ability.
fWAR - My projection derived from accumulated season fWAR.

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