25 April 2013

Strikezone Analysis for April 22 - 24: Blue Jays at Orioles

The Toronto at Baltimore series saw some of the more consistently called strikezones on the season, with every game rating above average for Rzone accuracy. The average Rzone accuracy rate coming into this series stood at 86.80%, but for the series, hit a robust 88.56%.

Overall, the Orioles benefited on 35 "bad" calls, while the Blue Jays benefited on 23. This was the most favorably called series the O's have seen so far this year. That being said, the Orioles are still at a net loss on the season and based upon the current trend for away games, this upcoming west coast trip may not rectify that. This is probably also attributable to a few things: 1. Jake Arrieta didn't pitch this series, 2. Chris Tillman had his best start of the season. 3. As bad as Josh Stinson was, his issue was home runs, not poor control.

April 22, 2013: Toronto 1 - Baltimore 2

Umpire
Real
% of Total
% of Chances
Typical
% of Total
% of Chances
Correct Calls
148
87.57%

148
87.57%

Incorrect Calls
21
12.43%

21
12.43%

Balls Called Balls
106
62.72%
86.89%
92
54.44%
97.87%
Strikes Called Strikes
42
24.85%
89.36%
56
33.14%
74.67%
Strikes Called Balls
5
2.96%
10.64%
19
11.24%
25.33%
Balls Called Strikes
16
9.47%
13.11%
2
1.18%
2.13%
Borderline - Balls
19
11.24%
42.22%



Borderline - Strikes
26
15.38%
57.78%










Baltimore Orioles
Real
% of Team
% of Chances
Typical
% of Team
% of Chances
Ball Called Ball
52
57.78%
83.87%
43
47.78%
100.00%
Strike Called Strike
25
27.78%
89.29%
35
38.89%
74.47%
Strike Called Ball
3
3.33%
10.71%
12
13.33%
25.53%
Ball Called Strike
10
11.11%
16.13%
0
0.00%
0.00%
Borderline Pitches
45
31.03%




Borderline - Balls
11
42.31%




Borderline - Strikes
15
57.69%




Calls in Favor
12

7.10%
7

4.14%
Calls Against
9

5.33%
14

8.28%







Toronto Blue Jays
Real
% of Team
% of Chances
Typical
% of Team
% of Chances
Ball Called Ball
54
68.35%
90.00%
49
62.03%
96.08%
Strike Called Strike
17
21.52%
89.47%
21
26.58%
75.00%
Strike Called Ball
2
2.53%
10.53%
7
8.86%
25.00%
Ball Called Strike
6
7.59%
10.00%
2
2.53%
3.92%
Borderline Pitches
44
29.41%




Borderline - Balls
8
42.11%




Borderline - Strikes
11
57.89%




Calls in Favor
9

5.33%
14

8.28%
Calls Against
12

7.10%
7

4.14%

Barrett called a fairly consistent Rzone on the evening. His overall Strike called Ball rate was 10.64%, well below the season average of 16.87%. His Ball called Strike rate, 13.11%, was slightly higher than the season average of 11.23%.

As far as the Tzone was concerned, Barrett was more accurate than average, 87.57% to 85.80%. Balls were called balls at a 97.87% rate, indicating that while he was expanding beyond the Rzone, he wasn’t being completely irrational about it. It’s just that within the Tzone, but outside of the Rzone, he was wildly inconsistent, calling 76.92% of such pitches strikes for the Orioles, but just 44.44% for the Blue Jays. On borderline pitches, his strike rate was virtually identical for both teams, at 57.69% for the O’s and 57.89% for the Jays.

In Monday night's game, a classic Tzone pattern emerged. When you look at the chart, you can see what happened clearly.


The Orioles pitchers hammered LHB and the Blue Jays pitchers hammered RHB. On a night when the O’s trotted out 5 RHB(+ 2SHB) and the Jays trotted out 3 LHB(+2 SHB), the overall count should’ve favored the Jays. But when it came down to it, the O’s really pounded that outside corner (when they missed to a LHB, they missed low or away), while the Jays had far less control (when they missed to a RHB, the ball could be anywhere). Toronto also missed more pitches inside and high to a LHB, while the O’s were more consistently (but not perfectly) low and away to a RHB.

For the fifth time this season, the Orioles had a significant borderline pitch advantage. While borderline Rzone pitches were called at even rates for both teams at just under 58%, the Orioles had a very significant advantage in the percentage of T-R strikes (pitches in the Tzone, but outside the Rzone) at 76.92% to 44.44%.

April 23, 2013: Toronto 3 - Baltimore 4


Umpire
Real
% of Total
% of Chances
Typical
% of Total
% of Chances
Correct Calls
129
87.16%

117
79.05%

Incorrect Calls
19
12.84%

31
20.95%

Balls Called Balls
100
67.57%
93.46%
81
54.73%
100.00%
Strikes Called Strikes
29
19.59%
70.73%
36
24.32%
53.73%
Strikes Called Balls
12
8.11%
29.27%
31
20.95%
46.27%
Balls Called Strikes
7
4.73%
6.54%
0
0.00%
0.00%
Borderline - Balls
30
20.27%
71.43%



Borderline - Strikes
12
8.11%
28.57%










Baltimore Orioles
Real
% of Team
% of Chances
Typical
% of Team
% of Chances
Ball Called Ball
50
67.57%
90.91%
38
51.35%
100.00%
Strike Called Strike
17
22.97%
89.47%
22
29.73%
61.11%
Strike Called Ball
2
2.70%
10.53%
14
18.92%
38.89%
Ball Called Strike
5
6.76%
9.09%
0
0.00%
0.00%
Borderline Pitches
45
32.37%




Borderline - Balls
15
68.18%




Borderline - Strikes
7
31.82%




Calls in Favor
15

10.14%
17

11.49%
Calls Against
4

2.70%
14

9.46%







Toronto Blue Jays
Real
% of Team
% of Chances
Typical
% of Team
% of Chances
Ball Called Ball
50
67.57%
96.15%
43
58.11%
100.00%
Strike Called Strike
12
16.22%
54.55%
14
18.92%
45.16%
Strike Called Ball
10
13.51%
45.45%
17
22.97%
54.84%
Ball Called Strike
2
2.70%
3.85%
0
0.00%
0.00%
Borderline Pitches
41
32.85%




Borderline - Balls
15
75.00%




Borderline - Strikes
5
25.00%




Calls in Favor
4

2.70%
14

9.46%
Calls Against
15

10.14%
17

11.49%

In a complete vacuum, I would feel guilty about the strikezone last night. I don’t have a frame of reference, but it really, really looks like the umpire had no idea what to do with Dickey’s knuckleball. For the Rzone, the Orioles had 9.09% (5) of balls called strikes and 10.53% (2) of strikes called balls. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, had just 3.85% (2) of balls called strikes and a whopping 45.45% (10) of strikes called balls. That 15 calls in favor (10.14% of all pitches) and 4 against (2.70%) for the Orioles was the third highest calls in favor rate, lowest calls against rate, and largest difference between call in favor and calls against (for any team) so far this season. The knuckle ball does strange things...

The Tzone was much, much more even. Neither team had a ball called a strike and the Orioles only had a slight 14 – 17 advantage (lower is better) in strikes called balls. The 79.05% Tzone correct rate was the second lowest of the year. The knuckleball does strange things...


On borderline pitches, Alfonso Marquez had the lowest called strike rate so far this season, at 28.57%. The Orioles got 31.82% strikes on borderline pitches to the Blue Jays’ 25.00%. The difference on T-R strikes was very significant, with the Orioles getting a 71.43% rate to the Blue Jays’ 22.22%. The knuckleball does strange things...

April 24, 2013: Toronto 6 - Baltimore 5

Umpire
Real
% of Total
% of Chances
Typical
% of Total
% of Chances
Correct Calls
172
90.53%

174
91.58%

Incorrect Calls
18
9.47%

16
8.42%

Balls Called Balls
121
63.68%
90.30%
112
58.95%
98.25%
Strikes Called Strikes
51
26.84%
91.07%
62
32.63%
81.58%
Strikes Called Balls
5
2.63%
8.93%
14
7.37%
18.42%
Balls Called Strikes
13
6.84%
9.70%
2
1.05%
1.75%
Borderline - Balls
14
7.37%
40.00%



Borderline - Strikes
21
11.05%
60.00%










Baltimore Orioles
Real
% of Team
% of Chances
Typical
% of Team
% of Chances
Ball Called Ball
52
57.14%
88.14%
45
49.45%
95.74%
Strike Called Strike
28
30.77%
87.50%
33
36.26%
75.00%
Strike Called Ball
4
4.40%
12.50%
11
12.09%
25.00%
Ball Called Strike
7
7.69%
11.86%
2
2.20%
4.26%
Borderline Pitches
38
23.17%




Borderline - Balls
5
35.71%




Borderline - Strikes
9
64.29%




Calls in Favor
8

4.21%
5

2.63%
Calls Against
10

5.26%
11

5.79%







Toronto Blue Jays
Real
% of Team
% of Chances
Typical
% of Team
% of Chances
Ball Called Ball
69
69.70%
92.00%
67
67.68%
100.00%
Strike Called Strike
23
23.23%
95.83%
29
29.29%
90.63%
Strike Called Ball
1
1.01%
4.17%
3
3.03%
9.38%
Ball Called Strike
6
6.06%
8.00%
0
0.00%
0.00%
Borderline Pitches
52
21.59%




Borderline - Balls
9
42.86%




Borderline - Strikes
12
57.14%




Calls in Favor
10

5.26%
11

5.79%
Calls Against
8

4.21%
5

2.63%

Overall, this was a very cleanly called game. Not only was it the second highest call accuracy rate on the season, but neither team was adversely affected by the few bad calls that did happen. The game ended rather poorly for the Orioles, but on the whole, it was their own pitching failures and not the strikezone.

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