22 July 2012

2012 Playoffs: Who Gets In (July 22)

Camden Depot ran the first projections for the final rankings on July 18th.  Only a few days have passed, but that has included the Orioles peeling off several victories.

How have things changed?

American League

Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * Change
NYY  57 40 97 East -2
TEX  56 42 98 West -1
DET  51 35 86 Central +3
 LAA  51 37 88 WC 1 -2
 BAL  50 27 77 8 GB +1
 CHW  50 34 84 1 GB -4
 OAK  50 33 83 2 GB +3
 TBR  49 32 81 4 GB +1
 BOS  48 37 85 WC 2 0
 CLE  47 34 81 4 GB +2
 TOR  47 28 75 10 GB -3
 KCR  40 32 72 13 GB 0
 SEA  41 29 70 15 GB +1
 MIN  39 30 69 16 GB -1
With only a few days passing, some of the season ending tallies have changed considerably.  Detroit, Chicago, Oakland, and Toronto has seen somewhat large changes.  It will be interesting to see in the weeks ahead how much noise these projections have.  It may well be that fluctuations in the short sampling periods are evened out in the long term.  It may also be that we see periods where certain teams are outperforming or underperforming their talent level and we see regression.

National League

Team Wins Proj Wins Total * Change
WSN  54 38 92 East -1
CIN  54 37 91 Central +1
 PIT  53 33 86 3 GB +2
SFG  53 35 88 West +1
 ATL  52 38 90 WC 1 0
 LAD  51 33 84 4 GB +2
 STL  49 40 89 WC 2 +1
 NYM  47 34 81 8 GB +1
 ARI  46 39 85 3 GB +2
 MIL  44 36 80 9 GB -1
 MIA  44 32 76 13 GB -2
 PHI  41 36 77 12 GB -1
 SDP  40 28 68 20 GB +2
 CHC  38 30 68 21 GB +1
 COL  36 32 68 20 GB 0
 HOU  34 26 60 29 GB -3
There is less movement on the National League side.  It is also nice to see that according to these rankings that the Orioles are expected to win more remaining games than the Astros.  So there is that.

Just for fun...what would the draft order for next year look like?

2013 Projected Draft

Selection Team Total
1  HOU  60
2  CHC  68
3  COL  68
4  SDP  68
5  MIN  69
6  SEA  70
7  KCR  72
8  TOR  75
9 PIT Appel
10  MIA  76
11  PHI  77
12  BAL  77
13  MIL  80
14  TBR  81
15  CLE  81
16  NYM  81
17  OAK  83
18  LAD  84
19  CHW  84
20  PIT 86
21  ARI  85
22 BOS 85
23  DET 86
24  LAA  88
25 SFG  88
26  STL  89
27  ATL  90
28 CIN  91
29 NYY  97
30 WAS 92
31 TEX  98

4 comments:

ptcello said...

Small sample size, but Gonzalez and Tillman have done well(tillman's fiasco at Minnesota was due to an expensive error)

Surely, they are pitching better than the men whom they replaced, and should be worth a few additional wins?

Remember, playoffs aside, the goal is .500.
These two don't make that more likely?

Jon Shepherd said...

A league average player is worth about 2 wins over the course of a season. So, if Gonzalez and Tillman are average pitchers and replacing replacement level pitchers, then they may add 2 wins total.

Matt P said...

Gonzalez and Tillman aren't replacing replacement level pitchers. They're replacing Matusz and Arrieta.

First of all, let's agree to use ERA to determine how Matusz, Hammel and Arrieta have performed. They're not in the rotation at the current time and don't project to be back this year(if Gonzo, Tillman and Britton stick). What they've done is what they'll do this year. If none of them come back this year then we know how they performed even if it was bad luck.

If we can agree to that, then we'd have Britton, Gonzo and Tillman replacing three pitchers with an average ERA of 4.96. Given that they have FIPs respectively of 4.27, 5.86 and 3.32 - we could hope for a combined FIP of 4.48 or to save .5 runs per nine innings.

Assuming they pitch 225 innings that means they would save maybe 12.5 runs or add a 1.25 wins.

But if Britton and Tillman can continue to keep doing what they're doing and the Os added a pitcher who put up a 4 ERA to replace Gonzo then they'd save 27.5runs or maybe 3 wins total. That would mean they'd have a good shot at hitting .500.

Jon Shepherd said...

Sure...team may improve 1-3 games. I do not think that really is different from what I wrote when I suggested a 2 win bump.