09 April 2011

Updated AL East Predicted Standings: 04/09/11

In the rush of posts in the past two weeks, I neglected to put out the initial week's projected standings.  These are calculated by estimating runs scored and given by each team in a neutralized setting.  This is done by using the MARCEL projections along with a simple tool that predicts Wins Above Replacement by inputting playing time, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.  Once this is calculated I apply Bill James' log5 win expectancy model and the team's remaining schedule.  As with the expected wins piece on Monday, this will eventually take the shape of a graph when I get more data points.

03/31/11 (prior to opening day)
Red Sox 94.7
Yankees 90.0
Rays 82.3
Orioles 79.5
Blue Jays 73.9

Red Sox 93.3
Yankees 90.7
Orioles 81.7 (up from 4th)
Rays 80.1 (down from 3rd)
Blue Jays 74.8

As you can see a week full of games has very little impact on these predictions.  The greatest difference is the Rays who lost 2.1 wins due in part by their losing and also due to Manny Ramirez retiring.  He was on the ledger as contributing 2.5 wins this year.  However, his replacements (Casey Kotchman and eventually Desmond Jennings) account for a 1.5 decrease over the rest of the season.

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