01 April 2011

2011 Season Wins and Playoff Odds: Week 0

Bald Eagle Hatching from Ed Smith Stadium
So begins another year and another season of keeping track of projected wins and playoff odds for the Baltimore Orioles.  In years past we have seen the three measures I use (PECOTA, Pythagorean, and Camden Depot's house stats) follow the team and mosey toward actual reality.  Typically, the team does about six to ten games worse than the projections each year.  Hopefully this season is different.

Graphs depicting the journey will appear from now on every Monday.  It being the first week, we only have one data point.  As a brief reminder, here is a rundown of each system:
PECOTA - I use Baseball Prospectus' projections that models the season and predicts wins and playoff opportunity.
Camden Depot - I used MARCEL projections to determine team WAR, adjust the WAR with a log5 strength of schedule factor, and then use a simple binomial function that determines the likelihood of the Orioles winning 92 games.  Why 92?  Based on all of the projection systems I have seen, 92 wins is likely what will result in a wild card.
Pythagorean - It assumes that what has happened will happen again no matter the sample size.  I will also use the same binomial function as a playoff predictor.

Projected Wins:
PECOTA - 80.3 wins; 8.20% playoff chance
Camden Depot - 79.5 (80.7 without adjustment); 2.23%
Pythagorean - 81 (by default); 3.56%

The Depot's current projection of 2.23% is currently the lowest of the systems I can find.  CAIRO puts them at 12.5%.

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