18 August 2010

2010 Record Update

It has been a long while since our last recap.  The prolonged losing and my upcoming doctoral defense has kept me pretty much isolated to twitter.  140 characters do not allow me to procrastinate too much.  Anyway, I think we are getting to a monumental change in the predictions for this year in that for the first time since the third week of April the Orioles may no longer be the favorite for receiving the first overall selection in the draft.  The team stands right now with a 0.5 game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  This translates as a 52% chance of taking the first overall selection.  With about six weeks left in the season, this will be a nail biter for awfulness.  Here is how we stand in general:

1. Pirates 52% chance finishing behind them (aka taking the 1st overall selection in the 2011 draft)
2. Mariners 75%
3. Diamondbacks 91%
4. Royals 93%
5. Indians 93%
6. Astros 95%
7. Cubs 97%
8. Nationals 98%
9. Brewers 99%
10. Athletics 100%

After the jump, the updated prediction graph detailing what our WAR system, PECOTA, and Pythagorean methods see for this team.

As you can see, it appears the three prediction systems are beginning to converge on the point established by our system on June 8th when we retooled the expectations for each player in the organization.  Do not take this as any sort of competence on my part.  More so, it is about happening to balance out enough of the projections.


Anonymous said...

O's are 1.5 games behind PIT right now for the #1 pick, not half a game ahead.

Jon Shepherd said...

You might be new to the predictions posts. The final season tally is according to PECOTA predictions, not current win total. That is how we derive the percentages.