Dan Duquette's Trades in 20/20 (2013)

The last post covered Duquette's deals during the 2012 season and found that five of his seven deals were simply parts with minimal value dealt for other parts with minimal value.  The two deals that differed were very much in his favor: (1) Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom and (2) Matt Lindstrom for Joe Saunders.  Five pushes and two pluses are a track record that any first year General Manager would enjoy having.

In this post, we progress to the 2012 season and see how things shake out.

November 20, 2012
INF Robert Andino for OF Trayvon Robinson

This was one of those deals where each team wants to check out an uninspiring piece the other team owns to fill a place of organizational need.  Andino's four years in baseball hate some highlights, such as a game winning hit that knock the Red Sox out of the 2011 playoffs, but largely was a long trial that showed that Andino was a Norfolk shuttle type of player who had no options.  Seattle gave Trayvon Robinson two extended shots in a pretty meager outfield, but his free swinging and marginal defense were poor fits in SafeCo (and likely everywhere else).  So, the clubs exchanged pieces they were quite willing to simply release.

Robinson wound up playing well in Bowie last season and was then granted free agency status where he quickly returned to his first club, the Los Angelos Dodgers.  Andino had a miserable stint with the Mariners and is now organizational filler for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: The Orioles didn't give up much in Andino or probably get much in Robinson.
Conclusion: 0.2 bWAR, Push

November 30, 2012
RHP Jhondaniel Medina for INF Yamaico Navarro

Second base has been a sore subject for the Orioles ever since Brian Roberts's extension became an albatross of medical calamities.  Each season, some hope was placed on Roberts to fulfill his annual 10 MM salary with some useful play at second, but age and conclusions can be cruel.  To provide a bit of a cushion the Orioles tried to use players like Robert Andino and Ryan Flaherty in 2012 to varying success.  They now looked for a new collection of second basemen to provide a safety net for Roberts.

Navarro was an interesting prospect who was continually not living up to expectations and frustrating clubs with his behavior.  However, it was clear to see there was talent there and that keeps a guy employed.  After a season in Pittsburgh where he dominated AAA and was dominated in the Majors, the Pirates saw him as a commodity they no longer saw as part of their future.  They were willing to ship him to the Orioles for a hard throwing pitcher in rookie ball named Medina.  It was a commodity that most teams have in spades, a hard throwing pitcher in the low minors.  However, it is a commodity that the Orioles largely lack.  That said, these guys rarely pan out, so losing one is not a big loss.  Though, having no stable full of hard throwing relief arms in the low minors is an issue, but that article is for another day.

What happened?  Navarro appeared in a couple games for the Orioles while performing well in AAA.  He is now toiling in the Yankees system.  Medina has moved up to HiA ball where his stuff plays well against the hitters, but he has little clue where his pitches are going.  He does not look destined for the big league club yet.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: The Orioles find themselves with a player who used to be an interesting prospect and has failed multiple times at the major league level, but gives them more options for filling second base.  The Pirates get more flexibility in their 40 man roster by dealing a guy two other teams had given up on in the past two seasons along with acquiring an slightly interesting, but certainly not unique, arm.
Conclusion: 0.2 bWAR; Push

April 10, 2013
RHP Luis Ayala for LHP Chris Jones

Luis Ayala is one of the pitchers who seems to always find himself gainfully employed as the third or fourth righthander out of the pen or as someone who is earning some money in AAA, waiting for a spot to open up.  After a strong 2012 season where he prevented his own baserunners from scoring, but not others, he was a someone extra arm in the pen for the 2013 squad.  The Braves, however, needed another decent and cheap arm in the pen.  They offered a talented and erratic southpaw reliever by the name of Chris Jones.

Ayala proceeded to produce well for the Braves, making the Orioles kind of wish that Pedro Strop was dealt instead and led to more dealing that now looks somewhat poor now to make up for a lack of right handed bullpen depth.  Jones has been strong in AAA and is on target this year to throw more innings in season than he ever has.  Ayala returned to the Orioles this year, but was released and was most recently throwing for the Blue Jays in their minor league system.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment was made.
Conclusion: -0.4bWAR; Arguably the Braves benefited.

April 28, 2013
RHP Rob Delaney for C Chris Snyder

This was a deal done simply for depth and a chance to see if a player could regain former glow at a position of need while dealing out a player who did not fit the organization.  That sentence could be written for the Orioles' side as well as the Angels'.  Delaney was a smart right handed pitcher who succeeded everywhere in the minors except AAA where his stuff came across as average.  Two short stints in the Majors were largely full of trouble.  Chris Snyder used to be the future of the Diamondbacks organization with a profile of being an exceptional offense first talent.  However, by the time the Angels got him, the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Astros, and Nationals had given up on him.

This deal also wound up being a lot of nothing.  Delaney struggled to finish his year and is no longer with any organization.  Chris Snyder played in nine games for the Orioles and held his own, but it was nothing special.  He retired after the season.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: Chris Snyder has operated long under the guise of being an offensive catcher.  He does have a little pop, but that was more present his first few years in the league.  Since 2009 though, he has had issues with power, contact, or both.  This, combined with slightly below average skills behind the plate and you wind up with a veteran playing in AAA without a MLB contract.  You can say that Snyder is no worse than Teagarden, which is largely true.  Both are essentially replacement level players.  Exposito caused concerns because his offensive calling card simply has not shown up and his defense is worse than Teagarden’s or Snyder’s.  For the Orioles to only have to give up a fringe MiL relief pitcher, it was a good move.  You should expect Snyder to be DFA’d upon Teagarden’s return.
Conclusion: 0.1 bWAR; Push

July 2, 2013
RHP Jake Arrieta, RHP Pedro Strop, and international money for RHP Scott Feldman, C Steve Clevenger

As July opened up, the Orioles were clearly in trouble.  Their starting pitching was a bit in shambles.  This was particularly true with Jason Hammel's regression and the imploding of Jake Arrieta whenever he took the mound.  The bullpen was also on shaky ground with Pedro Strop looking more like his Rangers' enigmatic self as opposed to the often dominating form he showed for the Orioles in 2012.  Yes, the talent was there, but they were not productively using it and the team was seeing their playoff opportunity fade.

On the Cubs' side, Scott Feldman was emerging with one of the better pitching performances in the National League.  With a 3.46 ERA, he looked to some to be a decent option as a front end or middle rotation starter on a playoff club.  It was a performance that was not wholly unexpected, but one that certainly was not especially exceptional.  Still, h appeared to be one of the shining arms available on the market.

What happened is that the Cubs wound up running away with this deal.  The international money helped them avoid penalties for their amateur spending.  Strop has put in very good 2013 and 2014 campaigns.  Arrieta has emerged as a good starter who could a no hitter when the moment strikes him.  For the Orioles, Scott Feldman produced below average production for the rest of the season and Clevenger has performed at a replacement player level.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: This deal is about the Orioles giving up on a good international prospect or two along with two pitchers full of promise and irritation in exchange for more catcher fodder and a backend rotation arm.  It is an improvement as it means no more Freddy Garcia, but not a great one that will change the fortune of this club.  They would be better off using Strop in mopup duty and giving Arrieta more time to sort himself out whether it being in Baltimore or in Norfolk.
Conclusion: -4.2 bWAR; Cubs

July 12, 2013
INF Russ Canzler for RHP Tim Alderson

There is not much to say about this trade.  Canzler was a bit redundant in the Orioles organization with the club already employing marginal right handed bats without much fielding acumen in Steve Pearce and Danny Valencia.  The Pirates however wanted more depth there in case they needed a bat for their bench.  Alderson was more or less a decent organizational bullpen arm.  The Orioles had been shuttling pitchers through Norfolk trying to catch lightning in a bottle ever since saying goodbye to Pedro Strop and maybe something would click with Alderson.

Neither player played in the Majors for the other club.  Canzler is currently being a professional hitter with the Phillies on their AAA squad while Alderson has struggled greatly this year in Norfolk before being given his release.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: No comment.
Conclusion: 0 bWAR; Push

July 23, 2013
INF Nick Delmonico for RHP Francisco Rodriguez

Salt was in the wound.  The Orioles dealt out Strop as part of the package for Scott Feldman.  At this point, Feldman was struggling and Strop had found his form again.  More so, the Orioles had trouble with their bullpen options.  Their fourth right handed option was largely Jairo Ascencio and that was not working out well.  Meanwhile, the postseason hopes of the Brewers fanbase had been dashed and the club was looking to deal out pieces.  Francisco Rodriguez was enjoying a stellar two months after being promoted to the Majors just before his opt out clause would go into effect.  He had had a rough go of it the year before with the Brewers and had issues with violence toward teammates and his family.  That said, he was effectively performing at a low cost and that is what baseball teams like to see.

Delmonico has been a bit shaky with the Brewers and has yet to escape HiA ball.  He is not bad, but the odds grow longer each day of him being a meaningful big leaguer.  Rodriguez wound up being wholely less than average for the Orioles, giving up the long ball a bit too often.  He did not meaningfully impact the Orioles', which was to be expected because they were simply upgrading their fourth righthander in the pen.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: Delmonico does not need to be a meaningful prospect to have value.  I’d suggest that his ability to augment a trade package is probably worth more than him being traded straight up for a reliever who at best makes the 2013 Orioles a +1 win team.  It is difficult to ever know what is possible in trades and it is an illness in the brain that us followers of the game tend to want to believe in an abundance of trade opportunities, but I do think that a package of Delmonico plus one would likely bring back to the Orioles a player of greater importance than Rodriguez.  Of course, this contention is somewhat unfair.  It is difficult for the addition of Rodriguez to stand up against a comparison of something that does not exist.  The vagueness of the unknown is certainly a draw for many to embrace and questioning Oriole front office authority has been a talent that has been thoroughly developed over the past decade and a half.  That said, I maintain that the health of the franchise is better served when second tier prospects are stacked instead of being doled out one at a time. 
Conclusion: 0.1 bWAR; Push

July 31, 2013
Josh Hader, LJ Hoes and competitive draft pick for Bud Norris

The Orioles at this point were still in a discussion for the playoffs and still needed rotation help.  Feldman was a sure starter every five days, but had not been putting the team in a position to win.  The Astros were an awful team and had an expensive player in Bud Norris who was also in his arbitration years.  He had broken out somewhat to be considered a mid-rotation arm on a playoff team.  Their original asking price of a top 25 prospect was steadily depreciating as the deadline neared.  The Orioles offered MLB filler in LJ Hoes, a highly valued competitive draft pick, and a low probability, high upside arm in Josh Hader.

Norris would up pitching rather poorly for the Orioles in 2013 and has really been only been somewhat average this year with some disconcerting peripherals.  For the Astros, Hoes has been a useful stand-in as an outfielder and the competitive draft pick helped buffer the team's misplay of not signing major pieces of their draft.  That said, the low probability high upside arm of Josh Hader has been all upside this summer.  Some scouts are thinking he has established himself as a top 100 pitching prospect.  Maybe that is a worthwhile cost for being able to employ Bud Norris, but it would be possible to imagine that Hader might be off limits in a deal now.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: This is a team in need of a push and the play of Norris is unlikely to be much better than what a random collection of arms from Norfolk could produce.  You could argue that these moves are for stability and to shore up against potential injuries in the stretch run.  I would argue that would make sense for a team that sat slightly comfortably in first place. That team is not the Orioles.  Maybe that is the new inefficiency and Duquette figured it out before everyone else.  To me, it looks like a Dutch boy sticking a finger in the dike when doing nothing probably has the same result.
Conclusion: 0.6 bWAR; Push

August 30, 2013
OF Xavier Avery for UTL Mike Morse

The Orioles had about a 1 in 7 chance to make the playoffs as August drew to a close.  They were in need of a pick-me-up to improve their chances, but that was a hard thing to find past the unrestricted trade deadline.  They now had to sort through various broken and overpaid pieces to find something.  That thing was Mike Morse, a player who had made a living off of one good year.  At that point in time, he was terrible with the Mariners as he had a known leg injury that sidelined him, but was hiding a wrist injury.  The Orioles held a speedy potential fourth outfielder piece in Xavier Avery that the Mariners could use in their cavernous park.

Morse wound up hurt the Orioles' chances by about a game.  It was a poor move to make and giving him time to show how bad he would be ate into the ability of other right handers on the club who had already shown they could hit.  Avery had a decent time finishing the year in Tacoma, was designated for assignment without anyone claiming him, and now has been on a month long tear at Tacoma.  Interestingly enough, he has actually been mentioned in trade rumors as a complimentary piece in the Mariners' attempts to get into the playoffs.

Depot Thoughts at the Time: I think this is a meh deal, but that it was a marginally bad deal in a greater context.  Right handed hitting opportunities were available for cheaper in terms of money and prospects than what the Orioles wound up paying.  They gave up on a marginal prospect (of which they have very few in their system) in exchange for a player who does not seem to be an upgrade over what they already have.  I am not a fan of movement for the sake of movement.  I understand that with the team's playoff chances so low that a bet was a good idea to make.  I simply do not see Morse as the bet I would like to make.
Conclusion: -0.4 bWAR; Push, but -0.4 bWAR is awful in less than a month's play.

Final Tally
-3.8 bWAR

Costing your team four wins is pretty awful, but that margin would not have gotten the club into the playoffs.  It was good to see Duquette move pieces around and try too make things work, but the team basically got Bud Norris for Josh Hader, Pedro Strop, Jake Arrieta, a first round pick, a decent international amateur prospect, and maybe even a more emergent Xavier Avery.  That is quite a difference from the previous season when Duquette squeezed blood from stones.  Of course, 20/20 hindsight makes it easy to see that these moves hurt the Orioles and that the team perhaps could have figured out another way to spell Bud Norris' 0.3 bWAR in 2014.  That said, at the Depot, I certainly was not in favor of any of these deals.  They seemed like deck chair shuffling to me and that has been borne out to be true.

One thing that has amazed me was how much the success of Duquette's first season has created this halo of him in many a fan's eyes.  Yes, it is difficult and I have no idea if a year is a proper sample size to judge how successful a general manager is, but with a sunny 2012 and a stormy 2013 on the trade front it appears that Duquette might be more run of the mill.

Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014: Starting Pitchers - Part 2

This post is part of the Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014 Series.  Below you will find links to the other articles.  We will do our best to make sure the links go live with each new update.

C | 1B | 2B (1, 2) | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | Bench | SP (1, 2) | RHRP | LHRP | Conclusion

Chris Tillman (photo via Keith Allison)

Two weeks ago we took a look at how the 2013 Orioles starting rotation performed.  This week, we’ll take a look at what they can do to improve in 2014.

Returning Starters

•        Chris Tillman
•        Wei-Yin Chen
•        Bud Norris
•        Miguel Gonzalez

While Part 1 seemed rather bleak, it doesn’t necessarily mean 2014 will be more of the same.  Based on their production from last year (which can be viewed here) and each player’s contract status in 2014, it’s a pretty safe bet that these four will have their names penciled into the 2014 starting rotation.  The key will be to get more innings out of this group, limiting the starts made by AAA roster filler.

There is no real ace in this group, and though Tillman is still young enough to substantially improve, many talent evaluators see his ceiling is that of a #2 or #3 starter. What the Orioles have with this group is an extremely cost effective (and cost controlled) group of approximately average starting pitchers, which should provide a lot of value.  As a group, these 4 will likely cost the Orioles around $10 million total in 2014, allowing them to use their resources to improve other areas of the roster.  Additionally, if you include Chen’s club option, each of these pitchers will be under team control through the 2015 season.

So that leaves us with one rotation spot to fill.  Since we already have a group of #3 or #4 starters, we’re ideally looking to fill that last rotation spot with an ace (easier said than done).  Let’s take a look at some options.

Internal Options

• Zach Britton
• Kevin Gausman

With Dylan Bundy recovering from Tommy John surgery, Zach Britton and Kevin Gausman are currently the best internal candidates to fill that 5^th spot in the rotation.  However, I don’t think it would be wise for the Orioles to commit a starting rotation spot to either of them, as neither has consistently been productive as a major league starting pitcher, as noted in Part 1.

Depending on how the roster shakes out, these two should be given a chance to compete for that 5^th rotation spot in spring training, but they’re likely best suited as starting pitching depth, at least to start the season.  One important thing to consider, Britton is out of options (as Jon noted in the 40 man roster update earlier this month), so once he’s put on the 25-man roster, he won’t be able to be sent back down to the minors without passing through waivers.

Free Agent Options

Top of the Class

• Matt Garza
• Ubaldo Jimenez*
• Ricky Nolasco
• Ervin Santana

Since the 2014 free agent market for starting pitchers is relatively weak, it’s probably best for the Orioles to stay away from any starter that will cost them their 2015 draft pick. This should rule out both Jimenez and Santana, who are expected to both receive and decline qualifying offers from their current teams.  Additionally, both Santana and Jimenez were terrible pitchers as recently as 2012, where they combined for -1.1 fWAR, making them 2 of the 3 least valuable qualified starting pitchers in all of baseball.

Garza and Nolasco are a different story.  Since both were traded mid-season, they’re ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.  The general consensus this offseason is that Garza is the best free agent pitcher available, but it’s not as obvious as you may think.  Can you guess which career line belongs to each pitcher?

Player A is Garza and Player B is Nolasco.  Doesn’t it SEEM like Garza has been better?  Over their careers, they’ve virtually been the same pitcher, with the only difference being that Nolasco is a year older.

Either of these pitchers would likely be the best starter on the staff if the Orioles were to sign one.  However, there is a good chance that both Garza and Nolasco will price themselves out of the Baltimore market as teams look to sign an effective starter without giving up a draft pick.  I would advise against a bidding war for either starter, leaving the Orioles to look at other options.

*Jimenez is not technically a free agent as of this posting, but according to reports, he will decline his player option with the Indians and test the market.

Short-Term Contract Candidates

• Bronson Arroyo
• Bruce Chen
• Bartolo Colon
• Scott Feldman
• Jason Hammel
• Phil Hughes
• Barry Zito

You could also theoretically include Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, and Hiroki Kuroda, but they’re likely returning to their respective teams or retiring.  A.J. Burnett could also be put in this group, though Dave Cameron at Fangraphs expects him toreceive a qualifying offer from the Pirates (and I agree with him), so that rules him out as well.

That doesn’t leave much left here.  In the last 2 years Colon has been the best of this bunch, but he’ll be 41 years old in May, and you never know when his age will finally catch up to him.  Bringing Feldman or Hammel back is an option, but either pitcher gives Baltimore more of what they already have.  Plus, I would expect Feldman to get a Jeremy Guthrie type deal (3 years/$25 million) this offseason from someone, and that “someone” probably shouldn’t be Baltimore.  Having Feldman for a full year would improve the rotation, but I think they can do better.  Arroyo, Chen, Hughes, and Zito are either extreme fly ball pitchers and/or terrible, so…no.  Let’s move on.

Potentially Effective Question Marks

• Roy Halladay
• Dan Haren
• Josh Johnson

Originally I included “Big Time Timmy Jim” on this list, but the Giants recently re-signed him for 2 years and $35 million (and at that price, they can have him).  So let’s start with Halladay.  Unfortunately, the old Roy Halladay isn’t likely to return and personally, his last two years have been difficult to watch.  He’d be an interesting option on a minor league deal, but I think someone offers him a roster spot with a low base salary and a ton of incentives, provided he wants to continue his career.

Haren is an intriguing option, but there is some uncertainty without much upside.  The speed of his fastball has been declining and it has sat between 88 and 89 mph the last two years.  He’s also become less of a groundball pitcher during that time (ground ball rate of 39.6% and 36% in 2012 and 2013 respectively), making him a bad fit for Camden Yards.  Add that to his age (33 on opening day), and his history of lower back injuries and you’re looking at someone who can probably give you 2.0 fWAR or (slightly) more per 200 innings.  The only problem is he probably won’t pitch 200 innings.

Finally, there is Josh Johnson, who is coming off an injury filled, 81 inning, 6.20 ERA debacle of a season, yet still managed to produce 0.5 fWAR on the limited strength of his peripheral statistics.  Compare his 2013 season to the rest of his career numbers, and you’ll see how out of line it was.

As you can tell, his “luck” stats really stick out, and out of all the available free agent options, Johnson easily has the most upside based on his productive past and his relative youth (he’ll play the entire 2014 season at the age of 30).  Johnson’s fastball velocity has been slightly declining, but his average fastball in 2013 (93.41 mph) was only 0.12 mph slower than 2012, when he was worth 3.5 fWAR.  If Johnson can stay healthy, I think there’s a good chance he’ll be able to return to his previous levels of success…

…but that’s a big if.  The only year he threw over 200 innings was 2009 and his injury page on Baseball Prospectus includes his right elbow (including Tommy John surgery in 2007), forearm, fingers, upper arm, shoulder, back, and left knee.  It took me 10 minutes just to read through it.  Still, the ace potential is there, and it should come at the lowest cost in terms of money and years than anyone else on the market for a pitcher of his caliber.

Trade Options

• Trevor Cahill (Arizona Diamondbacks)
• Rick Porcello (Detroit Tigers)

During the offseason, it will be difficult to find a starting pitcher on the trade market who will be a true difference maker in the 2014 Baltimore rotation.  Most teams view themselves as potential contenders during the offseason, while the teams that don’t would prefer not to have their fans assume that they’re giving up on the 2014 season before it begins.

Having said that, two potential players to target include Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello.  While neither pitcher would be considered the “ace” that the Orioles need, they are both groundball pitchers (Cahill has a career ground ball rate of 55.3% while Porcello’s is at 52.8%) who would improve the Baltimore rotation at minimal cost, and greatly reduce Baltimore’s issue of allowing home runs.  Both pitchers would be under team control through the 2015 season, as Cahill is guaranteed about $20 million over the next 2 years (with club options for the 2016 and 2017 seasons) and Porcello is entering his second year of arbitration.  Additionally, Baltimore’s outstanding infield defense should increase the value of either pitcher, helping turn all those groundballs into outs.  Neither player should cost a lot in terms of prospects, though I’m not sure if there is a fit with either team.

International Options

• Masahiro Tanaka

I’m not too familiar with starting pitching options on the international market, but a number of news outlets have reported that 24 year old Masahiro Tanaka of the Rakuten Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional baseball league will likely be posted by his club this offseason.  I don’t know much about Tanaka, but Jon wrote an excellent piece on him 3 weeks ago here on the Depot.  It has a lot of good information on Tanaka, so I suggest that you read it, if you haven’t already.

Between the posting fee and the contract, acquiring Tanaka could get expensive, especially with the large number of teams that are reported to be involved (Jon suggests the Orioles make an offer of $120 million total).  Signing Tanaka comes with a lot of risk, as Japanese starters have not always made a smooth transition to the states, but Tanaka may be worth the money, as at least one scout has claimed that he’s better than Yu Darvish.  However, due to the financial commitment of the posting fee and the salary, it’s highly unlikely the Orioles become major players for Tanaka.

One Crazy Idea

Empty the farm system for Cliff Lee.  Depending on how much of Lee’s salary the Phillies would agree to pay, it would likely take at least one or more prospects in the Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Mike Wright group to convince the Phillies to let Lee go.  While that’s a hefty price, Lee is one of the most consistently productive starting pitchers in all of baseball, averaging almost 6.2 fWAR per season over the last 6 years.  Including his buyout, Lee is guaranteed $62.5 million over the next 2 seasons (his vesting option for 2016 is worth $27.5 million).  There would be some risk considering his age, but with no signs of slowing down and only 2 years left on his contract, the risk would be somewhat minimized.

As mentioned previously, trading for an impact starting pitcher in the offseason presents a considerable challenge.  So even if the Orioles would target Lee, the Phillies probably wouldn’t want to trade him.  It would be a better bet to revisit this proposition in July, when both teams have a better idea of where they stand in the playoff race.

Conclusion

Heading into 2014, there is no doubt that the Orioles need to improve one of the 2013’s worst starting rotations.  We’ve looked at a number of available options above, and since Baltimore is only on the hook for roughly $10 million total for their 4 returning starters, they would ideally spend some money to fill the last spot in the rotation.

Assuming that he doesn’t receive a qualifying offer, the Orioles should aggressively target Josh Johnson to fill the final rotation spot.  Due to his poor showing in 2013, Johnson should be available on a 1 year deal, likely for anywhere in between $5 and $10 million, which is an amount the Orioles should be able to handle.  While it’s a risk due to Johnson’s lengthy list of injuries, there is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal, especially when it comes to adding a potential #1 starter to your rotation.

Baltimore’s minor league system contains several high upside pitching prospects, that for reasons of age, inexperience, or injury aren’t quite ready to contribute to the major league team.  Signing Josh Johnson would allow the team to add an impact starter to their rotation for a run at the World Series in 2014, without the long-term payroll or roster commitments, allowing their young pitchers additional time to progress into productive major leaguers.  A healthy Josh Johnson will strike out hitters more than 20% of the time and induce more ground balls than the average pitcher, two excellent traits for someone who will be pitching half of his games at Camden Yards.

Of course, should the Orioles follow my advice, they need to make sure they take a REALLY good look at the results of his physical exam before signing that dotted line…