Pedro Alvarez is Living My Dream

Joe Reisel's Archives

One of the biggest surprises of the Norfolk Tides 2017 season – last season – was that Pedro Alvarez didn't exercise his contractual opt-out to become a free agent. Alvarez is a power hitter, whose best position was designated hitter, in a system loaded with defensively-limited power hitters. It seemed obvious to us in Norfolk that Baltimore may have been his worst opportunity for major-league time, so why not try to move elsewhere? But he chose to stay in Noforlk

Flash-forward to 2018. Pedro Alvarez re-signed with the Orioles, and made the opening-day roster. He played in 45 games. At that point, the Orioles realized that he wasn't helping the team win now and, at age 31, wasn't likely to help the team win in the future. So, on June 19, the Orioles designated him for assignment and the following day outrighted him to Norfolk.

We would like to think that every team has nothing but major-league prospects at every level of its farm system. But in reality that's the exception. Almost every AAA team has a player like Pedro Alvarez – well, not all that much like Pedro Alvarez, a one-time all-star and #2 overall draft pick – but a 30+ year old with no real chance to play in the major leages (again). Gwinnett (Braves) has Sean Kazmar; Charlotte (White Sox) Jake Elmore; Durham (Rays) Brandon Snyder; Louisville (Reds) Hernan Irribarren, So while we in Norfolk are disappointed that Pedro Alvarez may be taking a Norfolk roster spot from a promising player, his presence with the Tides has virtually no effect on the Orioles' future.

The more surprising thing is that Alvarez accepted his minor-league assignment. At least last season the Orioles were a pretender; there was a chance that they would need his power in the chase for a wild-card berth. But this year, the Orioles are a non-contender; they're unlikely to (be able to) trade a veteran whose spot Alvarez could fill. Again he could have become a free agent with the chance of finding a better organizational fit. He didn't do it and again, it made no sense.

Until I learned a few things about Pedro Alvarez, the specifics of which I am choosing not to share to respect his privacy (other than to say that none of these things are negative.) I can state some generalities. According to baseball-reference.com, Alvarez has made over $21 million in his baseball career. I do not know if he has squandered his money, but I have reason to believe that he has not; if he has been even moderately prudent with his earnings he should have enough to live on for the rest of his life. The Norfolk – Williamsburg – Virginia Beach area is a nice place to retire to – reasonably nice weather, a fairly low cost of living. I don't know Alvarez' interests, but there's the Virginia Beach waterfront, a thriving local music scene, lots of golf courses nearby.

So now I see Pedro Alvarez as someone who might be truly living the dream. Ideally, he's got no money worries. He's living in a congenial environment. He gets to do what he wants – play baseball – and gets to hang out with friends. He even gets paid for his hobby! He's performed at the highest level of his profession. He's almost living my dream, anyway – although instead of playing baseball almost every day I'd settle for datacasting baseball.

Pedro Alvarez, I'm rooting for you. Enjoy.

Orioles Win 14-Inning Game That Had Just About Everything

Sometimes you watch a game and know you're going to remember it for a long time -- even in a season in which each team plays 162 games. That's how crazy of a game the Orioles' 7-3 win over the Yankees on Friday night was. Yes, it was a Birdland classic.

As it turns out, the Orioles and Yankees played another fun, extra-inning game on Sunday, which the O's also won (8-7, in 12 innings). That come-from-behind win had its share of storylines and strange plays.

Still, Friday's absurd, 14-inning game had so much going on, including:

• A go-ahead grand slam from Pedro Alvarez.
• Early exits for CC Sabathia (hip injury) and Gary Sanchez (calf injury). 
• Aroldis Chapman getting two visits to the mound (the second one being health related).
• Manny Machado reaching base six times (2 HR, 2 1B, 2 BB).
• Mychal Givens's mad dash home after a wild pitch to cover the plate and save the game.
• Aaron Judge robbing Caleb Joseph of a home run in the 13th inning.
• An incorrectly called rundown play that should have led to two outs instead of one. (The umpires admitted after the game that they were wrong.)
• Excellent work from both bullpens: 19 combined innings, only four earned runs allowed.
• Didi Gregorius's game-tying homer in the 8th.
• Two shutout innings from Rule 5 pick Pedro Araujo.
• Tim Beckham going 0-6 with five strikeouts.
• Chris Davis hitting a home run.

There's more, but already that's an action-packed list. Let's take a closer look at some of the most memorable moments:

Machado's monster night

In seven trips to the plate, Machado reached base six times. No one else in the game reached more than three times.

Machado had four hits, including these two blasts off of CC Sabathia:



No one else in the game had more than two hits.

This nugget after the game made Machado's performance look even more ridiculous:

Also per STATS, the last player before Manny Machado to have 4 hits, 2 walks and 2 home runs in a game in New York was Mickey Mantle on Aug. 6, 1961. #orioles #yankees

— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) April 7, 2018

Not bad, Manny.

A confusing rundown

In the sixth inning, the Yankees, who were caught in several rundowns just in this series, did this:



After a lengthy discussion, the umpires ruled that Giancarlo Stanton gave himself up (even though he passed Gary Sanchez at third base) and that there would only be one out instead of two.

The umpires were wrong. The crew chief, Jerry Meals, admitted that after the game:

"OK, what we had on the field, what Ronny (Kulpa) had on the field, was as soon as Stanton ran by him into foul territory there, he had him out for abandoning his effort, which gave Sánchez the base, so when they tagged him he wasn’t out. That was our explanation on the field. We were incorrect.

"The ruling is when a runner from second, in that situation, when a runner from second has occupied third and the lead runner goes beyond third base to the outfield or wherever, runs past it, the interpretation is the runner from second is passed that runner, the lead runner, so he is out automatically without being tagged. Sánchez should have been out automatically for passing Stanton. Then Stanton had the right to come back and touch third before being tagged or be called out for abandoning his effort."

It's not often that umpires admit that they messed up. Fortunately, the Yankees didn't score with that extra out in the sixth inning, so it ended up not mattering much.

Givens saves the game

With two outs in the bottom of the 11th (and the score still tied), Mychal Givens uncorked a wild pitch. In the moment, it seemed like the game was about to end. But thanks to great hustle from both Joseph and Givens, it wasn't, because this happened:

Immediately after the play (and still after the call was upheld), there were cries of how the run should have counted because "Givens blocked the plate!" Now, catchers can't block the plate, of course, or at least they are not supposed to. However, things are different for pitchers. Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun summed up the situation well:

And though a recent rule change prevented catchers from blocking the plate, the relevant rule — Rule 6.01 — says nothing of pitchers covering the plate, and Givens was making a play to catch the ball.

The game went on, and Givens's game-saving play will be remembered for quite some time.

Aaron Judge robs Caleb Joseph

Off the bat, I thought Joseph's ball was gone. Unfortunately, I didn't account for the giant, skilled baseball player in right field:



Thirteenth inning. Large outfielder. Short porch in right field. New York fans who managed to not reach over the fence and interfere! It all added up to a soul-crushing moment for Joseph and the Orioles and a euphoric one for the Yankees.

Alvarez's blast puts it away

The Orioles were not going to be denied, though. That's because Pedro Alvarez, who entered the game as a pinch hitter in the 10th inning and reached base in his three trips to the plate, did this in the 14th inning:

Cue the Napoleon Dynamite GIFs (Vote For Pedro) and anything with a bull reference (Alvarez's nickname is El Toro). Amazing.

-----

At this moment, who knows exactly how the Orioles season will turn out? There's still a lot to learn about this team that's in the middle of a brutal stretch of games to start the year.

Still, no matter if things go south or not, this game will be one to remember. What was your favorite moment from such an epic game?

Orioles Could Use Neil Walker

When the Orioles picked up Danny Valencia and Pedro Alvarez, the common refrain amongst observers of the Orioles was just where exactly would Valencia fit.  The idea for some would be that if Mark Trumbo would magically disappear that Valencia and Alvarez could form a formidable one-two designated hitter punch.  For instance, Valencia can punish southpaws fairly well (136 wRC+ for career) while Alvarez hits right handers at a 117 wRC+ career clip.  As a fringe, righty hitting designated hitter, it is not incredibly surprising how little interest Pedro Alvarez generates from other MLB clubs as well as how little he played last year.  What is surprising is that Valencia, a poor fielder who only really hits left handers, has seen extensive playing time the past two seasons. 

While Valencia is a poor fielder, he can fill in first, second, third, and corner outfield positions in a pinch.  That is a terrible solution long term, but if your starter needs a breather or you need time to find a serviceable alternative when a starter goes down, then Valencia helps provide a barely adequate solution.  Alvarez, on the other hand, can hold a bat.  He used to play third base, but saw his athleticism vanish in Pittsburgh.  He has attempted to play first base, but he lacked the footwork and touch.  Last year was an experiment in the outfield and was something we just don't want to discuss.  Whereas Valencia can be a solution in a pinch, Alvarez simply does not offer that.

So, the question is whether or not the club can improve upon what it has in Alvarez.  This rather unseemly off-season has provided the Orioles with a potential option.  That option would be in the vein of Valencia.  A player who can perform in the field to a varying degree and provide value as a left handed option in the lineup or off the bench.  His name is Neil Walker.

This might be a surprise.  Last year, Neil Walker played under a qualifying offer, making 17.2 MM.  This year, it is the beginning of March and he remains a free agent.  Walker's market appears to be dwindling as fewer teams have any true need for a second baseman or even a third baseman.  This might make Walker more open to spending the 2018 season in a bit of flux, position-wise. 

Now, Neil Walker is not a good utility defender.  He has performed slightly below average at second base and slightly below average at third base.  In fact, he has spent more time as a catcher (168 games) in his professional career than he has in the outfield (0 games).  He is a switch hitter, but is really only proficient as a left handed hitter with a 122 wRC+ line.  In other words, his offensive value is similar to Alvarez', but he can actually be used in the field.

Neil Walker's Last Five

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
2013	.251	.339	.418	114
2014	.271	.342	.467	126
2015	.269	.328	.427	106
2016	.282	.347	.476	121
2017	.265	.362	.439	111

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/5/2018.

Last year, the Orioles' player with the highest on base percentage who met qualified status was Jonathan Schoop along with Trey Mancini with a .338 mark.  Walker's .362 was much higher.  Over the past five years, his worst performance was a .328 offering that would have  settled in behind those two, but be ahead of Adam Jones' .322 mark.  Needless to say, Walker does something repeatedly in the most recent past that no one else on the club seems to be doing regularly, getting on base.

Walker could be used as a leadoff man in a similar fashion as Seth Smith.  In fact, he basically is Seth Smith.  Both run about the same (~26.5 ft/s).  Both get on base around the same rate.  Both have similar power production.  Neither are considered special defenders.  Walker though can play at more restrictive positions.  Walker is also three years younger.  It is why BORAS projected Smith as a non-roster invite while Walker was put at a 2/22 value.  Walker will not see that money, it seems, as this offseason appears to have marked a point where the value of players is now somehow different.

What this might mean is provide the Orioles with an opportunity.  Walker gives the club a strong platoon option at designated hitter.  He also can be used as depth for third base or second base.  As such, he checks more boxes than Alvarez does.  In addition to that, a multi-year deal could also provide the Orioles with a respectable cover for 2019 if Manny Machado leaves.  Walker can fill in at second or third with Tim Beckham and Schoop shifting around.

In other words, perhaps 2018 would see Neil Walker as the Orioles poor man's version of prime Ben Zobrist.  And, perhaps, in 2019 he offers a baseline solution to what certainly appears will be a need.

Should Pedro Alvarez Just Be The DH?

The Orioles can never have enough 1B/DH types, so it's no surprise that Pedro Alvarez is back with the O's on a minor league deal. Let's have some fun with it.

Imagine for a moment that Mark Trumbo didn't have two years and $26 million left on his contract. If you had to pick between Trumbo and Alvarez as to who'd have the better numbers as the O's DH in 2018, who would you choose? I asked this very question in a Twitter poll on Sunday. You may be surprised with the results:

Who has the better numbers with a full year at DH?

— Matt Kremnitzer (@mattkremnitzer) February 25, 2018

It's not so crazy, though! The two players' Steamer and ZiPS projections are close: 105 and 101 wRC+, respectively, for Trumbo, and 112 (!) and 98 for Alvarez. Trumbo is 32 years old and has a career 106 wRC+; Alvarez is 31 and has a career 107 wRC+.

As Jon and others have discussed numerous times on this site, the knock on Trumbo is that he's a bad outfielder who struggles when he's forced to DH. He could play first base on another team, but the Orioles have Chris Davis locked into that position. That means Trumbo is likely to see the bulk of his at-bats as a DH. In his playing career, that hasn't gone well:

Trumbo career DH: 88 wRC+
Trumbo career non-DH: 112 wRC+

Have things been better recently? No. Trumbo has been with the Orioles since 2016, and in his two seasons in Baltimore, he has a 81 wRC+ as a DH (713 PA) and a 133 wRC+ as a position player (554 PA). (For reference, the MLB average DH had a wRC+ of 94 last year.)

For Alvarez, the opposite has been the case. He's performed much better as a DH:

Alvarez career DH: 124 wRC+
Alvarez career non-DH: 107 wRC+

Most of Alvarez's DH work has come with the Orioles, and his DH numbers look even better when counting just the 2016 and 2017 seasons: 129 wRC+ (360 PA). In his 31 non-DH plate appearances, Alvarez has a 73 wRC+.

Career wise, Trumbo has more than 1,000 plate appearances as a DH while Alvarez has just over 400, so the case is stronger that Trumbo hits worse as a DH than it is that Alvarez is much better as a DH. Also, of Alvarez's 410 plate appearances with the O's, 365 have come against right-handed pitching, while just 45 have been against lefties. In his career, Alvarez has a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching but a wRC+ of only 70 against southpaws. Trumbo, meanwhile, has not been used as a platoon bat.

So what matters more: Trumbo's shortcomings as a DH, or Alvarez's struggles against left-handed pitching? Probably Trumbo's DH issues, especially since, if Alvarez were the main DH option, the O's could opt to use a right-handed hitter at DH when the O's face a lefty. (That could give some regulars a rest from playing the field that day.) It's tough to get around carrying a DH who's not going to hit as well.

Back to reality. Trumbo does indeed have $26 million left on his deal, and if another team wanted to take him and his salary off the O's hands, it maybe would have happened already. (And it looks less likely now that someone like Logan Morrison had to settle for a one-year, $6.5 million deal with a 2019 vesting option.) Still, if the O's could find a taker for Trumbo's remaining salary (or even, improbably, eat some of it) and then use Alvarez as the main DH, would you do it?

Pedro Alvarez - A Pleasant Surprise in Right Field

Joe Reisel's Archives

When the Orioles had announced that they had re-signed free agent Pedro Alvarez to a minor-league contract, and that they were sending him to Norfolk with the intention of converting him to an outfielder, those of us who pay attention to the Norfolk Tides baseball games were dismayed. Last season, we were treated to the experiment of Christian Walker trying to play left field, and it wasn't pretty. And we had less reason to be optimistic about Pedro Alvarez' playing the outfield. Walker, at least, had been a competent first baseman; Alvarez has widely been regarded as a butcher both at third base and at first base. Walker was reasonably athletic-looking; Alvarez has a body reminiscent of Prince Fielder. There wasn't any reason to think that Pedro Alvarez would be anything less than a train wreck in right field.

It's been a month, and I've had plenty of opportunities to see Alvarez play. He's been playing right field, which is a reasonable plan. As a former third baseman, he's got at least a fairly good throwing arm, and right field in Harbor Park is the smaller of the corner fields because of a party deck jutting into the field from the right-field corner. I've seen Alvarez play eleven games in right field; a total of 100 defensive innings (one seven-inning doubleheader game and one twelve-inning game.) And he hasn't been terrible.

Actually, he's been quite a bit better than terrible. In these 100 innings, he has fielded 43 batted balls. (There's also been one home run hit onto the right-field party deck roof, but one can't expect any right fielder to field that.) Of those 43, five were ground balls through the infield and all five went for singles. Again, it's not reasonable for us to expect a right fielder to turn those ground balls into 9-3 putouts. Three of those ground ball singles occurred with no one on base; it is true that on the other two, a runner on first went to third.. However, in each case the single occurred with two outs and a very fast Syracuse Chief on first base - Rafael Bautista and Brian Goodwin. I think we can cut Alvarez some slack for not holding those runners to second base in those conditions.

Twenty-four of those batted balls were, in my judgment, fly balls (as opposed to line drives.) Alvarez was able to catch twenty-two of them for outs. Alvarez doesn't always look elegant and he doesn't run the best routes, but he has more range than I thought he would and he covers enough ground. One of the balls that fell in was hit down the right-field line and went for a double; it's possible although far from certain that the ball "should" have been caught. The other was a pop fly that fell into no-man's land between the first baseman, the second baseman, and Alvarez - and Alvarez was able to recover and force a runner out at second base. And after catching one of the other fly balls Alvarez was able to double a runner off second base.

That leaves fourteen line drives. Every one of those batted balls went for a hit; eleven for singles and three for doubles. I classified four of those line drives as "hard"; essentially, if they weren't hit right at the fielder they'd go for hits. Another one I classified as '"soft"; that was a ball that just got over the infield and rarely do outfielders catch them. The others were medium-speed line drives and it's not good that Alvarez didn't catch any of them.

But, upon further review, there were only two, maybe three, that I would have expected an outfielder to catch. Some of the line drives found a hole in the infield and landed a few feet behind the infield dirt; it's not Alvarez' fault that he couldn't catch them. Others were well-placed; Alvarez could have caught them had he been positioned differently but then he would have given up other territory.

And here too Alvarez is showing his lack of experience. On two of the line-drive singles, a runner scored from second (and on one of them, the batter took second on his throw home.) And, while on three line-drive singles he was able to hold a runner on first to a one-base advance, on another a runner on first advanced to third.

On balance, Alvarez has made 90-95 percent of the plays I would hope a good right fielder would make. Pedro Alvarez has impressed.

The Orioles Have Positional Depth; Lack Positional DEPTH

The 162 game, 6 month schedule of the baseball season is incredibly grueling, and as a result teams rely on contributions from more than the 25 individuals who initially make the roster out of spring training. In many cases, teams require contributions from more than the 40 players who make up the 40-man rosters. Injuries, ineffectiveness, and fatigue can play a pivotal role over the course of a long season at multiple positions, so it’s important (to the most practical extent possible) that teams fill their 25 and 40 man rosters with players who can provide adequate production at each position in the event the starter goes down, or in a best case scenario, just needs a day off. As MASN writer Steve Melewski mentioned in a recent article he posted, the Orioles have a lot of depth stashed in the minor leagues, particularly on the position player side at AAA affiliate Norfolk.

“The Orioles’ Triple-A Norfolk team is a club with a lot of experience - major league experience. The Tides have seven position players with over 300 games of major league experience: Pedro Álvarez (851), Chris Johnson (839), Robert Andino (481), Paul Janish (459), Chris Dickerson (355), Johnny Giavotella (353) and Logan Schafer (318).

Norfolk’s position players have combined for 3,799 big league games played, which is more than three major league clubs (Padres, Brewers and Reds) opened their 2017 season with. Members of Norfolk’s opening day roster have hit 289 career big league homers, 88 more than the Padres began the season with (201).”

Those paragraphs suggest the organization has a lot of depth. It’s false. Let’s start with Alvarez. After spending last season in Baltimore, Orioles fans are pretty familiar with him. He’s had a solid if unspectacular major league career to this point (career .238/.311/.449 hitter, translating to a 107 wRC+), and he’s actually a really nice player to have stashed in the minor leagues. Signing him to a minor league deal in the offseason is a great move in a vacuum. However, as is also well-known at this point, he’s best suited for a platoon DH role, and based on the make-up of the active roster, he likely sits 4th on the depth chart. Granted, he’s spending time in the minors to work on his outfield defense. But even if you think he’ll become passable in the outfield (while I have not seen him play there yet, I don’t), he’s probably going to need to hit as well as 2016 Mark Trumbo to justify a level of defense that is “not completely embarrassing”. Again, Alvarez on a minor league deal is a good player to have, and one of the better options to adequately fill in case of a rainy day, but he’s a redundant luxury to have in the organization.

Infielders

While doing a little bit of research for this post, I stumbled on something that surprised me.

Chris Johnson making $9 million this year to play 3B in Norfolk and not be on #Orioles 40 man roster. Sign me up!

— OriolesProvingGround (@OriolesPG) April 7, 2017

I had remembered that the Braves signed Johnson to that contract, but for some reason I thought that had been completed AT LEAST 2 years ago. Anyway, that’s neither here nor there. Ryan Flaherty is the only backup infielder capable of playing SS, 3B, or 2B, so the Orioles are essentially a J.J. Hardy (somewhat common) and Manny Machado or Jonathan Schoop injury (less common) away from not only Flaherty seeing significant playing time, but one of these three players doing the same.

Career Statistics (UZR/150 for position noted after player's name)

Of all the options here, Johnson (who is actually injured at the moment) is the most accomplished player of those four. He’s a tick worse than your average hitter, is a lousy defensive third baseman, and at first glance, having him stashed in the major leagues appears like a good idea (especially if someone else is paying that salary, which according to Cot’s, is Cleveland). However, Johnson has not been anywhere near productive at the plate since 2013, when he rode a .354 BABIP to a .321/.358/.457 slash line. His offensive success appears to depend entirely on a favorable BABIP, as the 3 years where he’s had a wRC+ over 100 all involved a BABIP of AT LEAST .334. In the last 3 seasons (with about 2 seasons worth of plate appearances), Johnson’s wRC+’s have been 82, 70, and 63.

Robert Andino and Paul Janish are organizational veterans at this point who (to borrow some scouting lingo), “can pick it” in the field, but can’t “hit a lick”. And while Janish’s glove work makes him a nice veteran to stash in the minors “in case of an (extreme) emergency”, I’m not sure Andino is a viable option to consider for the major league roster at any point of the season. Although, if the Orioles are out of it by August, I suppose you could hope for an Andino call up as an excuse to re-watch this highlight, and to see if his Orioles media photo continues its natural progression.

Despite minor league success, Johnny Giavotalla hasn’t shown an ability to hit or field in the major leagues and is limited to second base, so that’s not ideal. I know what you’re thinking; “Hey, that Giavotella guy is a former prospect so at least he’s probably young and maybe has some upside”. He’ll turn 30 in July. Time comes for us all.

Outfielders

As mentioned, there is plenty of (defensively challenged) outfield depth on the major league roster, so let’s take a quick look at the minor league outfield depth.

Career Statistics (UZR/150 is the combined number for all OF positions)

I probably shouldn’t even include Michael Choice here, but as a former top prospect, I decided to throw him in. He’s not even playing regularly in Norfolk, which gives an indication on where he’s at on the depth chart. Logan Schafer has some defensive value, but not enough to make up for a non-existent bat. Of these three outfielders, Chris Dickerson looks like he could be interesting as legitimate outfield depth who can also actually play defense, but he hasn’t played in the majors since 2014. It’s worth noting as well that the majority of his accumulated fWAR came from 2008 and 2009 (those seasons were accompanied with BABIP’s of .410 and .360).

I realize that this article is likely a little nit-picky. None of these players are even currently on the 40-man roster, so they are only considered depth in theory. Additionally, every organization employs players with MLB experience in their upper minors (sometimes as actual depth and sometimes as roster-filler). And to be honest, the lack of outfield depth in AAA isn’t an issue as long as the Orioles don’t care about outfield defense (and to this point, they haven’t), since there is plenty of outfield depth in Baltimore (not even accounting for the re-signing of Michael Bourn). In my opinion, it’s the infield that is particularly concerning. After Ryan Flaherty, there isn’t a single option in AAA that should see playing time. This is where the lack of prospect depth could really hurt the Orioles. Yes, the players discussed in this article have major league experience, but they are known quantities. They offer no surprise upside that a fringe average or better prospect could provide upon their call-up. Additionally, the majority of these players have not been productive for 3 years (if ever), so I find it unlikely they would even be replacement level if called upon. So while some out there may prefer major league experience despite what I just outlined, I think we can all agree to hope for good health, so these players don’t accrue major league service time in 2017.

Nothing (Well, Very Little) New Here

Joe Reisel's Archives

I am fortunate enough to be starting my twelfth season as a datacaster for the Norfolk Tides. I have also been fortunate enough to work with a congenial and pleasant group of co-workers. The official scorers, with whom I work closely, have been the same for all the previous eleven seasons. I have worked with the same media relations director for ten of the eleven seasons; he took a year off to try to make some real money and decided he'd rather be happy than rich. Although I don't work with them as closely, the PA announcer, scoreboard operators, and other behind-the-scenes staff have been there most of the eleven years as well. We have a history with the Tides, and every year we hope we'll get to see entertaining and interesting players.

Just before the start of the major-league season, the Tides hosted the parent Orioles in an exhibition game and I provided Major League Baseball Advanced Media with the datacast. This was my first look at the 2017 Tides. When we looked at the Tides' lineup for the exhibition game, we were pleased to see Chance Sisco, a young player with a promising future. And it was nice to see Paul Janish; even though he's not a young player, it's nice to see a shortstop who can make all the routine plays and even a few not-so-routine plays. David Washington was, at least, a fresh face, a minor-league free agent who hadn't spent several years in the International League.

On the other hand, we were dismayed to see Robert Andino and Chris Dickerson in the lineup. I have nothing personal against Andino and Dickerson and they are probably among the top two thousand baseball players in the world. But we've seen a lot of them when they were through Norfolk before and we weren't excited to see them again. I wondered if the Orioles had tried to find other similar blasts from the past like Blake Davis or Chris Robinson; at least they hadn't brought back Ryan Drese.

On the whole, then, the 2017 Norfolk Tides didn't look to be particularly interesting for us long-time Tides followers. But every year there's a new employee who joins us long-time Tides followers in the press box. That's the media relations intern, who does grunt work for the Tides while learning the minor-league baseball business and building a resume. The interns provide an entirely different viewpoint; they are much less focused on the minor leagues than we are and haven't been jaded by four .500 seasons out of the last eleven.

And, during our observations about how uninspiring the 2017 Tides seemed to be, this year's intern said that he was excited to see Pedro Alvarez. After all, he's a former all-star and National League home run champ. He's only 30 years old. He's fighting his way back to the major leagues. Surely this is a player worth seeing.

And, of course, he's right, given that he hasn't seen 478 Norfolk Tides games in the past eleven years. But part of the fun in watching minor league baseball is seeing something new, like young players potentially destined for glory and other players to whom we haven't been overexposed. We've seen Pedro Alvarez on television many times - I've even seen him live. We know the Pedro Alvarez story, and we've heard the same story many more times, about different players. Left-handed hitting home run hitter, doesn't hit for a high batting average, can't play defense - we know what to expect. And that's why I'm not excited about the specifics of the 2017 Norfolk Tides - I have expectations about too many players.

And, this may illustrate why many fans are frustrated by the Orioles. The 2017 Orioles are just like every Orioles team of the past few seasons - Manny Machado will be great, the rest of the lineup will hit a lot of home runs and play outstanding infield defense; the starting pitching will be suspect and the bullpen outstanding. At best, that will get them into the postseason but not really be favored to advance. While we want to be (pleasantly) surprised and see something new and different, perhaps we should enjoy what we have, rather than want what we aren't going to get.

Bottom Of O's Lineup Not Pulling Its Weight

The Orioles' offense this year has primarily been carried by three middle-of-the-order bats: Manny Machado (200 wRC+), Mark Trumbo (192 wRC+), and Chris Davis (142 wRC+). Besides success in limited at-bats by Nolan Reimold and Hyun Soo Kim, the rest of the lineup has been around average -- J.J. Hardy (103 wRC+), Joey Rickard (90 wRC+) -- or significantly below.

First, with Hardy, remember that his two home runs near Pesky Pole in Fenway Park are bumping up his numbers. Of course they count, but they are also the only two homers he's hit this season. Still, after his disastrous offensive campaign in 2015, anything close to average production would be a significant improvement.

Let's also have a chat about Rickard. He got off to a scalding start, with an endless array of grounders, bloops, and flares dropping in for hits. But his batting average on balls in play has come back down to earth, he's not drawing walks or hitting the ball hard, and he's striking out as much as Adam Jones. Rickard also hinted that opposing pitchers are being more forceful in attacking him. He's done a pretty good job in terms of pitches seen per plate appearance, but it's much more important to actually get on base.

Of course, you'd take a 90 wRC+ from Rickard, a fourth outfielder type, if he were a plus defensive outfielder. That was the notion passed along from beat reporters during the spring, and I don't think it's out of the question for him to be above average defensively or at worst average, at least in left field. But he's had his missteps, doesn't always look fluid, and early on has rated poorly by both UZR and DRS metrics -- the latter of which has placed him below replacement level on both FanGraphs (-0.4 fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (-0.5 bWAR).

Jones, who still seems to be dealing with a rib-cage injury, has certainly struggled as well (64 wRC+), but so has nearly every other regular who bats sixth and below: Matt Wieters (81 wRC+), Jonathan Schoop (70 wRC+), and Pedro Alvarez (61 wRC+). With Schoop, you can at least point to a low BABIP (.204) for hope for a quick turnaround. He's also been above the league average when it comes to hitting the ball hard. But, obviously, plate discipline will continue to be a concern for him.

Wieters is playing for his next contract, but he's looking the same as always at the plate: above average for a catcher, but not much more than that. The main positive is that he appears to be healthy, and he could pick things up as the season goes along. But you should know what Wieters is at this point, and he's not a star.

Alvarez has picked things up as of late, and he has walked a ton (15.7 BB%). Alvarez has yet to hit his first home run for the Orioles, which is somewhat surprising, because even Rickard has one. Kim, Caleb Joseph, and Ryan Flaherty are also homer-less so far.

In terms of bottom-of-the-order upside in the next few weeks or months, it's probably with him and Schoop. Now would also be a good time to remove Rickard from the leadoff spot and stop playing him every day. It was smart to ride that wave for a while, and if he starts hitting again, he could always move back to that role. A lineup isn't set in stone, and there's nothing wrong with batting Rickard ninth for a while. The Orioles really don't have a good leadoff hitter type for that spot, and maybe ensuring that Machado, Davis, and Trumbo bat as much as possible is the way to go. The second spot is ideal for Machado, but not at the cost of batting a below average hitter first.

Like many fans, I'd like to see more of Kim. Reimold has also made a case for more playing time, but considering his injury history, I think it's smart to spread out his at-bats. Maybe they're being spread out too far. You can also argue that either Kim or Reimold should be playing more than Rickard. Reimold is far from a defensive wizard, and gauging from limited action Kim is clearly not that kind of player either, but the early thought that Rickard was far enough superior defensively to make up for OK plate production doesn't seem to be the case. Trumbo should play right field against right-handed pitchers and DH against lefties (which he basically is), but more outfield at-bats should be up for grabs.

Pedro Alvarez And Fly Balls

Despite what the Orioles and Buck Showalter are trying to sell you about Pedro Alvarez's defensive skills, you pretty much know what you're getting with him. He'll wear out right-handed pitching, and he has power. He's also similar to Chris Davis when it comes to average home run and fly ball distance. Here are the two players' MLB ranks since 2012 (with average distance in parentheses):

Year	Davis	Alvarez
2012	32nd (297)	6th (306.7)
2013	8th (308.7)	3rd (311.4)
2014	21st (298)	23rd (297.6)
2015	2nd (315.7)	3rd (310.8)

Stats via Baseball Heat Maps

That doesn't mean Alvarez is a better hitter than Davis. He's clearly not. In two of the last three years, Davis has been one of the very best hitters in the game. Alvarez, meanwhile, has been good, but not great. But when the two players hit the ball in the air, they tend to hit it far. 

Alvarez doesn't pull the ball nearly as much as Davis, though, and he hits the ball on the ground a lot more. Davis's percentage of pulled balls in play has gone up each of the last four seasons, from around 43% to 56%. Alvarez, meanwhile, has hovered around 37-44% and hits the ball up the middle much more (career 37% vs. Davis's 29%). In his career, Alvarez has hit the ball on the ground nearly 47% of the time, compared to 35% of the time for Davis. Alvarez's 53 GB% and 27 FB% were his highest and lowest, respectively, in a season since 2011.

Alvarez's ridiculous HR/FB rate of 33% in 2015 jumps out, especially since his HR/FB rate was half of that in 2014, when he also hit 12% more fly balls. Alvarez's fly balls per ball in play against hard pitches have been declining since 2012, and they also trended down against breaking and off-speed pitches after an uptick in 2014. But he is still hitting line drives at a decent clip (against hard and breaking pitches, at least).

Alvarez does hit a lot of fly balls to left and center field, and he doesn't pull as many as you'd think (especially down the line). Most of his home runs are hit to right or right-center field, but he's also hit a good amount to center and left-center. Switching from a home ballpark of PNC Park to Camden Yards won't help in center or right field; the dimensions are mostly the same, with Camden Yards being a little deeper in straightaway center and right-center. The shorter dimensions in left field and left-center, however, could add a few extra home runs to Alvarez's total. 

Should you be concerned about Alvarez's recent batted ball profile? Not necessarily. He recently turned 29, and he's only signed to a one-year deal. There are some minor warning signs worth pointing out, but areas of concern can end up not mattering much at all. It's almost like you can't predict the future, or something.

There's not much to suggest Alvarez won't post above average numbers in 2016, especially if he's mainly deployed against right-handed pitching (which he should be). Steamer projects him to post a wRC+ of 121, with ZiPS at a more conservative 109. Either of those would be welcome, but will it be enough to significantly overcome Mark Trumbo's defense in right field? It's not surprising that the team willing to use Steve Pearce at second base for 121 innings last season is willing to find out.

Stats via FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and ESPN Home Run Tracker

O's Add Offense, Sacrifice Defense With Pedro Alvarez

The Orioles needed to add a left-handed hitter. Preferably, they needed a left-handed hitter who could also perform adequately in the outfield. The O's knew this; I don't need to rehash the Dexter Fowler saga. So with Fowler no longer an option, the O's turned their attention to Austin Jackson (not left-handed, but an outfielder). That didn't happen either, and apparently Jackson turned down more lucrative offers for the opportunity to play center field. The O's already have someone with the same initials to play there, so it wasn't meant to be.

That left the Orioles with a couple of unappealing trade options: Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez. There have been others mentioned here and there, but those were the names floated the most the past few weeks and months. Either of those players would have helped to some extent, but between what it would take to acquire and pay them, the O's decided to do something else. They added a left-handed bat, all right, but it's not someone you would confuse for an outfielder.

Photo: Keith Allison

The O's reached an agreement with Pedro Alvarez -- pending a physical (insert your own joke at the Orioles' expense here) -- on a one-year, $5.75 million deal. The deal includes various incentives for plate appearances that could push the deal near $7 million.

If there's a category that Alvarez fits, it's left-handed power hitter. Over the past three seasons, Alvarez ranks 15th among qualified major leaguers in isolated power (.217). He sits comfortably between Nolan Arenado and Brandon Moss/Yoenis Cespedes.

Overall, Alvarez has a career wRC+ of 106, and last year he tied his career best of 114. That would have been good enough for third best on the O's last year, ahead of Jonathan Schoop's injury-shortened 112 and Adam Jones's 109. Alvarez also hits the ball hard. According to Baseball Savant's batted ball data for 2015, Alvarez's average exit velocity of 92.6 miles per hour was 24th best (among all players with 50 at-bats with data). Manny Machado was 27th; Chris Davis was 32nd. (In terms of max exit velocity in that same group, Mark Trumbo and Davis tied for fourth (117 mph); Schoop, Alvarez, and Machado were among the 14 players tied for sixth at 115 mph).

Anyway, Alvarez's on-base skills (career .309 OBP) weigh down his numbers a bit, so he's not amazing or anything. Still, his bat is certainly helpful.

But Alvarez has clear limitations. He's a bad defender -- he has rated poorly in Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating metrics at third base and last year at first base -- and is terrible against left-handed pitching (career 68 wRC+). Those are two chief reasons why the 29-year-old former second overall pick is still available at this stage of free agency, and on a one-year deal.

The positive is that Alvarez helps the Orioles on offense against right-handed pitching (career 118 wRC+), no matter how Buck Showalter decides to order his lineup. Unfortunately, the Orioles already traded for a designated hitter earlier in the offseason: Trumbo. Davis is a first baseman and a DH. Trumbo is a first baseman and a DH. Alvarez is a DH. Now Showalter's task is to make these pieces work.

The easy solution is: Alvarez should DH exclusively and only play against right-handed pitching. That means Trumbo will move to the outfield in many of those games (most likely right field, depending on the progression of Hyun Soo Kim). Against left-handed starters, Trumbo shifts to DH, Alvarez heads to the bench, and Nolan Reimold, or Joey Rickard, or Dariel Alvarez, or some other underwhelming right-handed outfielder fills in.

A corner outfield duo of Kim and Trumbo could be a train wreck defensively. Kim is a question mark, and Trumbo is an exclamation point at the end of the sentence, "You don't want him in the outfield." Some have suggested that Davis could play right field instead of Trumbo, and sure, he could. Others have even thrown out the terrifying possibility of a Trumbo/Jones/Davis outfield, which would surely give Showalter nightmares. But August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs covered that point well in the first link above: "Some have suggested Chris Davis might be the better option in right field, which could be true, but the bigger point is that when the better alternative is Chris Davis playing everyday in the outfield on purpose, you’ve got a problem on your hands."

The downside of this move is obvious because defense matters. But it's tough for fans to be too upset by this particular move. Flawed strategy or not, the O's went hard after both Yovani Gallardo and Fowler. The front office apparently thought they had Fowler. So did Adam Jones. So did everyone. You don't get bonus points for trying, but the O's were clearly in pursuit and close to a deal.

Now the Orioles are at least an outfielder short, but they'll try to make due. How? By hitting the ball out of the ballpark, playing strong infield defense, utilizing very good relief pitching, and outmaneuvering opposing managers. But they'll also have to win despite having arguably the worst rotation in the AL East, a bad defensive outfield, and a need for improved team speed and on-base skills.

That doesn't mean the Orioles can't win. It does mean they have flaws, and that they spent an awful lot of money to put together a very similar roster to last year's.

Stats via FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Savant. Contract information via Cot's.

Why The Orioles Should Add Pedro Alvarez And Yonder Alonso Instead Of Chris Davis

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Orioles’ fans are distraught at the idea that Chris Davis may leave the team in free agency because of the consequences this could have for the Orioles’ offense. In a poll on Camden Chat, 60% of fans said that the Orioles should be willing to spend as much as $160 million on a Davis signing. John Heyman has reported that Peter Angelos wants to resign Davis and the Orioles are making an effort. On the other hand, doing this would take away much of the Orioles’ payroll flexibility and make it harder for them to sign other players.

This begs the question of whether offenses are better off with elite and replacement level batters or a more average but consistent offense. Are the Orioles better off with Davis and a replacement level DH or acquiring Pedro Alvarez and Yonder Alonso?

Pedro Alvarez is eligible for arbitration for the last time this off-season and is coming off of a season where he was historically bad defensively at 1B. His 23 errors this year were the most allowed by a first baseman since 1977 despite playing at first in only 124 games and 906 innings. His UZR is the fourth lowest at 1B ever out of 279 other first basemen. He is an awful defender at 1B and is a non-tender candidate because he can’t DH in the NL.

As a left handed batter, he is better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching, but has improved against left-handed pitching lately. After having an OPS in the .500-.540 range in 2013 and 2014 against lefties, he had a .712 in 2015 despite the fact that his walk rate dropped from the 8-9% to 4.6% while his K% stayed the same. Alvarez was more aggressive against left-handed pitchers in 2015 than he has been in the past.

Likewise, against right handed pitching in 2013, he was more aggressive than in 2014 and 2015 which resulted in fewer walks and a higher home run percentage. It is possible that Alvarez bats his best when he is aggressive and therefore fits right in with other Orioles like Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and Jimmy Paredes.

Alvarez is known for his power as he hit 27 home runs in 2015 despite playing in a stadium that is unfriendly to power batters and therefore has an OPS of .724 at home and .794 away. A move to Camden Yards, which is an excellent stadium for left-handed power, would mean that he’s playing in an appropriate environment and could help increase his power output.

Yonder Alonso is a singles and doubles hitter with excellent plate discipline with injury issues. With the exception of 2014, Alonso has had an OBP against righties around .360 since 2012 and can be a potential high OBP player. He is a possible non-tender candidate and likely would be a buy-low trade candidate given his inability to stay healthy, his defensive inflexibility, his weakness against lefties and his projected arbitration salary.

Steamer projects that Alvarez will end up with a .243/.320/.454 line and a wRC+ of 112. If traded to the Orioles, I think he’ll beat that mark due to the friendlier playing environment and I have him putting up a .250/.314/.487 line. Steamer projects that Alonso will put up a .269/.340/.401 line with a wRC+ of 108 in a surprisingly high 495 PAs. The method I used projected that Alonso would put up a similar .278/.350/.394. 

Steamer also projects that Chris Davis will have a .245/.337/.499 line with a wRC+ of 124 which is quite a drop from his 2015 line of .262/.361/.562 and a wRC+ of 147 probably due to his poor 2014. I put less weight on his 2014 season and therefore predict that he’ll have a .264/.345/.524 line.

I presume that Chris Davis will play 85% of all at bats at first base or about 570 PAs.  After all, there is always the possibility of injury or suspension and therefore it makes sense to presume that he’ll miss some time. He’s only had more than 600 PAs in two of the last four years.

I presume that Alvarez will play 75% of all at bats at DH or about 500 PAs. Unlike Davis, Alvarez hasn’t broken 500 PAs in any of the past three years. I do feel that playing DH will make it less likely that he’ll be a defensive substitute. Due to Alonso’s injury issues, I project him to play 90 of the 162 games.

Once I input these numbers into the lineup simulator tool, using my projections suggests that adding Davis will be a 35 run upgrade over the current roster while Steamer’s projections suggest that he’ll be a 27 run upgrade. My projections also suggest that adding Alonso and Alvarez will be a 38 run upgrade over the current lineup while Steamer suggests that they’ll be a 31 run upgrade. Either way, the lineup simulator suggests that adding Alonso and Alvarez will be more productive than adding Chris Davis but having a replacement level DH.

The 2015 Angels explain why this makes sense. Their offense had strong offensive players like Mike Trout, Pujols, Calhoun and Freese while guys like Giavotella and Cron weren’t terrible.  However, players like Aybar, Iannetta, Joyce, Perez and Featherston were all pretty bad and brought down the quality of the offense. The Angels tried to strengthen their weaknesses by trading for Davis Murphy, Shane Victorino and David DeJesus with little success and ended up scoring 661 runs or the 20th most in the majors.

The 2015 Mariners scored fewer runs than the Angels despite receiving great production from Cruz, Gutierrez, Cano, Marte, Seager and Smith while guys like Trumbo, Miller and Jackson were adequate. Problem is that Morrison was mediocre, Ackley was bad and guys like Zunino, Sucre and Montero were terrible. They were unable to find decent options at catcher and first base and it cost them.

It is easier to find an average player rather than a star and therefore it would be easier for the Orioles to improve upon a Davis/replacement combo rather than an Alvarez/Alonso combo. The problem, as illustrated by the Angels, Mariners and the Orioles 2015 outfield woes, is that there are no guarantees that a replacement level player will provide average or at least decent production in a given year. It’s possible that the Orioles will play a replacement level player in LF and he’ll turn into 2014 Steve Pearce or that he’ll turn into 2015 Delmon Young. Arguing for the Orioles to resign Davis means that one needs to think that DD will be able to find a few above-average replacement level players.

An Orioles’ team that does resign Davis will be in the same position as the 2015 Angels or Mariners because such a signing will eat up much of their cap room while only addressing one weakness.  If a player like Walker and Mancini can hit for league average and Davis has a strong offensive season, then DD would look like a genius. If not, it could be a long season because elite hitters can only do so much.

Chris Davis Might Well Be Gone

After a disappointing 2014, I was one of the few proponents of extending Chris Davis.  His peripherals did not look atrocious, so I questioned whether 2014 actually communicated that he was now a fringe 1B.  Added to this, I looked forward to 2016 and saw that the organization did not have a readily apparent successor (Christian Walker, a favorite of mine, has a great deal to prove) and the free agent market was void of an alternative that was significantly better than taking a chance on Walker (slating Pearce at first simply creates another hole in the outfield).  I assumed that a deal could be made with Davis in the neighborhood of 5 years at 60 MM.  Perhaps that was an unreasonable assumption.  Davis, through the arbitration construct, would earn 12 MM in 2015.  A bounce back would earn him something along the lines of another 5 years and maybe 90 MM.  A collapse might have him sit on the edges of the Majors and pulling in another 20 MM over that same span.  In other words, does a range of 20-90 MM in earnings outweigh a certain 48 MM?  Probably, so maybe I was optimistic.  That said, no way would you want to go much higher than what I suggested after that 2014 season.

Of course, now we know that Davis has not collapsed and he may well be out of the Orioles' price range.

Chris Davis' MLB Career

Year	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR
2008	317	17	.331	.549	128	1.0
2009	419	21	.284	.442	85	-0.9
2010	136	1	.279	.292	51	-0.5
2011	210	5	.305	.402	89	-0.1
w/BAL
2011	129	2	.310	.398	92	0.0
2012	562	33	.326	.501	121	1.6
2013 ★	673	53	.370	.634	168	6.5
2014	525	26	.300	.404	96	1.8
2015	446	29	.334	.522	133	2.7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/10/2015.

What would it take to extend Davis?
Using an updated version of Dave Cameron's simple contract estimator, we can get a rough idea of what kind of contract Chris Davis might expect this offseason.  Let's say his projected WAR for next season is 2.5 and that we are now living in a 7 MM per win era.  That would suggest that Davis should be imagining a contract length of five years and total earnings of 87.5 MM (17.5 MM annual earnings).  If the Orioles chose to match those figures, then Davis would become the most expensive contract in Orioles history by besting Adam Jones by 2 MM.  I expect this will not happen.

Should Davis accept a Qualifying Offer?
I set up the framework of a decision making process to determine whether or not it makes sense to accept a Qualifying Offer over a year ago.  With the Qualifying Offer this year expected to be 16.4 MM and a slightly underperforming season (2 WAR) for him in 2016, we could expect an overall package of five years and 76.4 MM (1/16.4+4/60).  That value is almost 11 MM less than what he could expect to receive in Free Agency and represents likely base earnings.  As the only arguable first division first baseman in Free Agency this offseason, a team in need and perceives themselves as a playoff contender will easily hand over a draft pick, so I do not think QO restriction will hurt Davis.  In other words, I think the likely course of events includes the team QOing Davis and wishing him well in his future endeavors.  It likely is obvious to the front office that an elite deal for a 30-year-old first baseman rarely ever works out.

If not Walker, then who?
We can look around baseball to gauge some onerous contracts that parent clubs might be quite agreeable to let go of and may very well be available now.  Six names immediately came to mind and are shown in the table below (all contracts assume first opt out date will be taken).

	Through	$ Left	WAR Left	Net
Pablo Sandoval	2019	75	3.7	-49
Justin Morneau	2016	9	0.2	-7.4
Ryan Howard	2016	35	-0.7	-40
Pedro Alvarez	2016	7.5	-0.2	-9
Ike Davis	2016	5	7	2
Jon Singleton	2018	6.5	7.2	43.2

On second thought, some of the players above are likely not being looked to move.  The Astros' Jon Singleton may have been a disappointment so far, but still looks to be an amazing deal moving forward.  If the Astros have soured on him, he would be the gem of the bunch.  At worst, he costs the club 6.5 MM which is also known as a Delmon Young, Wesley Wright, Everth Cabrera special.  So again, the reasons he looks like a great piece for the Orioles probably are the same reasons why the Astros would keep him.  I think you would be looking at a cost of maybe Jomar Reyes and Mychal Givens to acquire him.  At most, we are talking about Dylan Bundy.

Justin Morneau, Ike Davis, and Pedro Alvarez are tweeners.  The Rockies have dealt several players to not only increase payroll flexibility, but also to keep themselves in gear for 2016.  Dealing Morneau would mean a change of plans for 2016, a season in which they still seem to think has them in contention.  Morneau is the kind of cheap, big reward first base option they would likely love to have and for which the free agent market appears slight.  Oakland is likely very willing to discuss Ike Davis.  At a likely arbitration value of 5 MM, he appears to be the kind of lottery ticket the Athletics would work with.  However, he would also be a player where the upside is slim enough that the team would be open to converting Davis into something else.  Two potential plays would be either Christian Walker or Steve Clevenger.

Pedro Alvarez has had another season that further rubs away the shine he had when drafted.  He is no longer a suitable third baseman and simply gets along with the glove at first.  His bat continues to flash promise, but more often show failure.  Alvarez is a non-tender candidate at 7.5 MM and would probably get himself a deal around 5 MM or so in free agency.  That might be a close enough difference that another club might be willing to pay in hopes that maybe, just maybe, Alvarez is a late bloomer.  I imagine a power arm like Lazaro Leyva would easily get the Pirates' attention after the season.  If Alvarez would make his way through waivers, then the Orioles would have to supply something useful for the Pirates bench.  The club does not seem to have an abundance of that.

Pablo Sandoval might be a provocative option here.  Only one year into his deal, Sandoval has been a massive (forgive the unintentional pun) disappointment.  His hitting has been poor and he does not look capable of defending the hot corner.  The Red Sox other big free agent play, Hanley Ramirez, has shown a slightly more competent bat, but looks a bit lost in left field as well.  As they have done in the past, the Red Sox may be willing to eat some of Sandoval's contract and move Ramirez back to third.  Sandoval's current projection has him being worth 26 MM over the rest of his contract.  If you ignore his 2015 season, then he appears to be worth 53 MM (while costing 75 MM).  The Red Sox can afford to wait and see if Sandoval's value will rise, so they might be willing to cover up to 30 MM in exchange for a couple interesting, but not important, prospects.  I could see a power arm and a position prospect, perhaps Leyva and Jonah Heim.

Ryan Howard, through no fault of his own, is an obscene 2016 contract.  He has a 25 MM base and an almost assured 10 MM buyout to prevent a 25 MM 2017 season.  As such, he is worth no prospect of any value no matter what the Phillies assume.  Would the Phillies eat 30 MM in order to save 5 MM?  I imagine they could do a similar deal mid-season if he bounces back and at worst lose that 5 MM.  If I was the Phillies, I would be more likely to listen to a deal where the Phillies covered 20 to 25 MM.  At that level, it probably makes no sense for the Orioles to try for that.

Conclusion
I would be open to four options: Jon Singleton, Ike Davis, Pablo Sandoval, or Walker/Pearce.  Thoughts?