Blueprint For The 2016 Orioles (Option 3): Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System

On the surface, things look bleak for the Baltimore Orioles. The team finished a disappointing 81-81 one year following a trip to the ALCS. To make matters worse, there is a well-reported free agent exodus looming and the farm system is devoid of any impact talent ready to help the major league team in 2016. The challenge is to find a way to keep the major league team competitive, while rebuilding the farm system with impact talent. With that in mind, I’m proposing to fill the major league team with depth by signing productive, yet unspectacular free agents that do not have draft pick compensation attached to them.

According to Cot’s Contracts, the Orioles are committed to spending $41.83 million in 2016, $43.83 million in 2017, $19.33 million in 2018, and nothing after that. These figures don’t include arbitration raises and minimum salary requirements, but assuming a $120 million payroll in 2016 (and subsequent increases to keep up with inflation), the Orioles do have money to spend, but they’ll need to spend it wisely.

Non-Tendered Players

Of the arbitration eligible players on the current roster, I would not tender Nolan Reimold or Paul Janish a contract (MLB Trade Rumors estimates their arbitration figures to be at $1 million and $700K, respectively). Their skill sets can typically be found on cheaper (minor league) deals.

Qualifying Offers

Qualifying offers (estimated to be $16.4 million in 2016) should be given to Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters. I’d expect all three to decline, although I suppose there is a possibility that Wieters accepts, which could throw a wrench into my plans. Worst-case scenario, the Orioles have a catcher who provides league average offense (100 wRC+ in 2015) with above average defense (even with a weakened throwing arm) for one year at $16.4 million. That’s not a bad thing.

2016 Roster

Using Cot’s Contracts and MLB Trade Rumors assumptions on arbitration and minimum salaries, here’s who I believe should return in 2016 and how much money they’ll be making in 2016.

What we’re left with are vacancies at starting pitcher, first base, both corner outfield spots, a bullpen spot, and two bench spots. Oh, and approximately $44.7 million to fill them.

Infield

Manny Machado is awesome and now that he’s entering his arbitration years, he’s a prime candidate to sign to a long-term deal. However, according to this tidbit earlier this week, it doesn’t seem to be on the offseason agenda, so we'll stick with the MLBTR arbitration number for now.

Duquette said Machado long-term extension is something that can be discussed, but there are more higher priorities this offseason. #orioles

— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) October 5, 2015

If J.J. Hardy can physically play shortstop, he needs to be there. His trade value is non-existent at the moment, so the Orioles can only play him (and hope he produces, which helps the team AND his trade value) or package him with every tradeable draft pick they have for someone to take his contract off their hands. Having said that, Baltimore may want to add some minor league depth at SS in case Hardy is injured, ineffective, or both.

As for first base, I’m with both Ryan P. and Ryan R. that Chris Davis should be allowed to seek employment elsewhere. I’d fill that hole with Mike Napoli on a 1 year, $5.25 million contract. Napoli had a slow start to his year, but finished with a .224/.324/.410 batting line in 2015 and a 98 wRC+ (which looks a lot like Chris Davis’ 2014 line). For someone who doesn’t do anything well but hit, that’s not great, but with a career low BABIP, there is a good chance he returns to his career numbers (125 wRC+) with some better luck. If he falters, the Orioles can call up Christian Walker or put in Steve Pearce (more on him later).

Outfield

Obviously, the two corner outfield spots were a problem last year. Jason Heyward would be the ideal fit (and worth giving up a draft pick), but a 26 year old free agent outfielder who has been worth more than 11 fWAR the past two years is an ideal fit for 30 teams, so I’m going to assume the Orioles engage him, but get outbid. With that in mind, I’m hopping on board the Denard Span bandwagon and signing him to a 3 year, $42 million contract with a 4th year team option ($14 million annually). As both Ryan’s previously pointed out, his outstanding defense is an asset to a starting rotation that is not overpowering and he’s been about 20% better than the league average hitter over the last two years according to wRC+. He also provides center-field insurance for an Adam Jones injury and gives the lineup a much-needed left-handed bat. His injury filled 2015 does cause some concern, but it should also keep him from receiving a qualifying offer.

As for the other outfield corner, I’d suggest a platoon between Gerardo Parra and the aforementioned Pearce. I’d re-sign Pearce to a 2 year, $12 million contract to play left field against left-handed pitching and anywhere else when the matchup is favorable. I like Pearce’s versatility (he even showed competency at second base in 2015), and while the proposed offer may end up being light, I think that could get it done considering the opportunity for playing time. Bringing back Gerardo Parra on a 3 year, $24 million contract would fill the strong side of the platoon. He had a strange 2015, where his power spiked and his defense cratered, and I’d expect both to return closer to his career norms moving forward. Although 2015 was an outlier for Parra, he’s always been a decent hitter against right-handers (career 102 wRC+), which is the only type of pitcher he should be facing.

Pitching Staff

The Orioles finished the 2015 season with the best bullpen in the majors according to fWAR. I agree that Baltimore should move on from O’Day, but I’m not giving him a qualifying offer. I’m also tendering Brian Matusz a contract, but looking to deal him, although the return may not be worth it. One thing you’ll see in the first figure is the inclusion of Dylan Bundy in the bullpen. It’s important to note that Bundy is out of options and unless he’s on the DL, he WILL be on the roster in some capacity or the team will absolutely lose him to waivers. A role as the long man in the bullpen will allow him to keep his innings in check, while getting him prepared for a starting job late 2016 and/or 2017. I’m not one to pay free agent dollars for bullpen help, so the final vacancy can be filled with any combination of players making minimum salary such as Chaz Roe, Oliver Drake, Jason Garcia, etc.

As for the starting rotation, I’d go with those 4 above to start the season, even if (barring a breakout year from Gausman) there isn’t an ace in there. The Orioles have a number of options to fill out the number 5 spot (Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Tim Berry, or even Bundy), but I’d rather bring in a free agent and let those 3 or 4 be my emergency starters once one (or more) of the starting pitchers becomes injured or ineffective. I’ll keep with the theme of looking for someone who isn’t attached to a draft pick and sign…

J.A. Happ. Here me out. I assumed the same thing for David Price as I did for Jason Heyward: great fit, worth a draft pick, is not coming to Baltimore. I also heavily considered Johnny Cueto, but became nervous about the contract required to get him (even a probable low estimate of 6 years and $133 million gave me pause), the health of his elbow, and the fact that he throws a cutter nearly 20% of the time (a current “no-no” in the organization).

Happ may not be a sexy addition to the starting rotation, but he’s dependable, left-handed (something the starting rotation lacks), and he’s been better lately. Happ finished the year with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.41 FIP, which was worth 3.3 fWAR. Amazingly, 2.1 of those wins came with the Pirates in only 63.1 innings. His 2015 results don’t appear to be smoke and mirrors, as his LOB% is in line with his career and his BABIP was actually 20 points higher. Additionally, Happ’s throwing his fastball harder and he’s getting more groundballs than he did earlier in his career.

Happ isn’t the ace that most people want, but he’s a quality and consistent starter. A good comp for Happ’s contract is Jason Vargas’ 4 year, $32 million contract with Kansas City. Since Happ will be 2 years older than Vargas at the time he hits free agency, I think a 2 year, $16 million contract with a 3rd year team option is reasonable.

Bench

There were originally two bench spots to fill, but one of those spots will be occupied by Pearce or Parra (depending on the pitching matchup). Let’s fill the other bench spot by taking a flyer on Matt Joyce for 1 year and $2 million. Joyce is coming off a terrible season, but has a career 112 wRC+ and has surprisingly been an average defender in left over the course of his career (3 DRS in 2,259.2 innings) if he’s needed. Having said that, he should NEVER face a left-handed pitcher and shouldn’t see time anywhere else in the field (other than DH).

Final Tally

• LHP J.A. Happ – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually, 3rd year an option) 
• OF Denard Span – 4 years, $56 million ($14 million annually, 4th year an option) 
• OF Gerardo Parra – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually) 
• UTIL Steve Pearce – 2 years, $12 million ($6 million annually) 
• 1B/DH Mike Napoli – 1 year, $5.25 million 
• OF/DH Matt Joyce – 1 year, $2 million

This gives the Orioles a full roster and a total salary commitment of $119.56 million. Despite only the original $41 million committed in 2016 and a $120 million budget, the Orioles don’t have the finances to pay for superstar level players due to the number of roster holes and arbitration eligible players. This strategy allows them to build depth in the field and on the mound with productive, if unspectacular players, while also keeping their early round draft picks while adding 3 additional selections due to the departures of Davis, Chen, and Wieters. A mid-market team like Baltimore needs to have a strong farm system in order to compete annually. Signing players without draft pick compensation attached to them helps accomplish that.

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Links to Previously Published Options
Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down 
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants

Signing Brian McCann Makes Sense for the Orioles

One of the most important things I have learned over the course of my life is that no matter how sure you are about something that there is some degree of potential wrong-headedness attached to my ideas.  I try to combat this tendency to assume that I know things by continually challenging my perspective.  Two remarkable items came across my news feeds this week: (1) an article from NPR about how our knowledge of a particular subject tends to be inversely related to our openness about that subject and (2) a TED Talk discussing how infants make sense of the world around them, utilizing hackneyed series of experimentation.  Those two articles inspired me to consider a baseball move that on face value is ridiculous, but whether there may be a sound band of logic behind it.

The move I wish to consider: signing Braves catcher Brian McCann while extending Baltimore's Matt Wieters.

Braves' Brian McCann | Photo by Keith Allison

That smacks of lunacy doesn't it?  Those with the Baltimore frame of mind might think back to the 2006 off season when the Orioles signed Ramon Hernandez even though Javy Lopez was gainfully employed by the team and had enjoyed two relatively successful seasons.  The reasoning then was two fold.  One, Lopez had suffered a broken hand on a Bret Boone foul ball, was rushed back, and looked awful at the plate.  Hernandez would provide the team a catcher the Orioles could depend on while Lopez could split time with him and use his bat at designated hitter or, in hindsight way too optimistically, play some first base.  Second, even with Lopez at full health, the team considered Hernandez to be a superior defensive catcher.  That perspective had more to do with his throws and his coverage of bunts.  Lopez was below average in those areas (and his arm increasingly seemed completely shot), but he was perhaps one of the best pitch framers to have played the game.  That part of catching was and is continually overlooked.

Anyway, the 2006 season wound up with Ramon Hernandez looking like a great signing with solid defense and a strong bat for a catcher.  Javy Lopez never regained his performance level and was eventually dealt to the Red Sox who were looking for catching depth after Jason Varitek went down with an injury.  He wound up hitting 190/215/270 over 65 plate appearances as the Red Sox sank into third place.  The Orioles were sent Adam Stern after the season (the Rays claimed Stern to prevent him being moved to the Orioles during the season) who appeared in two games for the Orioles in 2007, but never got to the plate.

Looking back, the addition of a second catcher was more about replacing the current one with hope that they both would flourish over the course of their one concurrent season.  Signing McCann and extending Wieters would be an exercise that would be meaning to keep both players over the long haul as opposed to a one year experimental phase.  In that way, it would be different from the Hernandez acquisition.  The move would be more similar to the 2011 Detroit Tigers who signed Victor Martinez (beating out the Orioles who wished to pair the catcher/first baseman with Matt Wieters).  Martinez joined the Tigers to provide his bat to a lineup that had Alex Avila fixed as catcher and Miguel Cabrera solidly locked in at first base.  Martinez would pick up the games Avila did not catch, give Cabrera some rest, and then spend the rest of the time as a designated hitter.  With a career slash of 303/369/464 (.360 wOBA), it made some sense.

At the time, Dave Cameron had concerns about the deal that he expressed in a column at FanGraphs.  Basically, he thought for the 4 year, 52 MM deal the Tigers gave him to work out, he would have to catch.  Cameron undershot how well Martinez would do in 2011 with the Tigers only having Texas between them and a World Series.  Martinez' 330/380/470 slash was perhaps his best season at the plate.  He followed that up with missing the entire 2012 season and then doing just what Cameron thought he would do this past season as a lackluster designated hitter (who incidentally mashed the ball in the playoffs).  The Tigers certainly look like they paid too much for Martinez, but what is too much when your team is highly successful and in the playoffs.  It is, in a way, a window opportunity.  The Tigers have the players currently to compete, so might as well load up on as much talent as possible to push yourself into the Series.

This is especially true if you needed a bat in 2011.  Martinez simply was the cheapest plus bat you could depend on.  Lance Berkman and Adam LaRoche were available, but they certainly were considered a lesser tier with Berkman supposedly zeroed in on St. Louis.  Below are the position players who signed that off season for more than 5 MM annually.

		Years	Total (MM)
Carl Crawford	Red Sox	7	142
Jayson Werth	Nationals	7	126
Adrian Beltre	Rangers	6	96
Adam Dunn	White Sox	4	56
Derek Jeter	Yankees	3	51
Victor Martinez	Tigers	4	50
Paul Konerko	White Sox	3	37.5
Aubrey Huff	Giants	2	22
Juan Uribe	Dodgers	3	21
John Buck	Marlins	3	18
Adam LaRoche	Nationals	2	16
Orlando Hudson	Padres	2	11.5
Jhonny Peralta	Tigers	2	11.25
Magglio Ordonez	Tigers	1	10
Carlos Pena	Cubs	1	10
Lance Berkman	Cardinals	1	8
Derrek Lee	Orioles	1	7.5
Miguel Tejada	Giants	1	6.5
Johnny Damon	Rays	1	5.25
Lyle Overbay	Pirates	1	5

Based on availability and hindsight, I think you can argue that it was a decent move.

Brian McCann would be a slightly different pickup than Victor Martinez because McCann is actually capable of catching.  He is not great, but he is somewhere between average and slightly less than average.  His bat is maybe a tad better than a poor man's Victor Martinez (277/350/473, .338 wOBA).  He would certainly be an improvement over what the Orioles accomplished at DH during the 2013 season (234/289/415, .307 wOBA).  Of course, there may be other, cheaper ways to find a .338 wOBA bat.  McCann would be different from those bats because he could give Wieters more time at DH and make the season less of a grind.  It is uncertain if McCann can play first base.  He has never played a single inning there as a Major Leaguer.

I decided to run McCann's numbers through a simple projection system.  Briefly, I weight performance from the previous three years and then apply a generic age curve factor.  This gives us a ball park expectation.  For McCann, I did it two ways.  I used his raw rates from the past three seasons and also an adjusted history where I decided to replace his injury plagued 2012 season with a composite of 2011 and 2013.  In order to devise Wins Above Replacement (WAR), I assumed that he would catch 50 games and DH 100 games each year with those games caught as performing league average.

		Normal			Adjusted
		wOBA	WAR		wOBA	WAR
2014		.332	1.6		.348	2.1
2015		.322	1.1		.337	1.8
2016		.319	1.1		.332	1.7
2017		.313	0.8		.326	1.3
2018		.307	0.6		.320	1.1
Value			36.4			56

The simple model I used suggests that McCann would be worth a 5 year deal somewhere between 36.4 and 56 MM.  Other teams may view him as a catcher during those five years.  If they assume league average catching, then a 5 year deal between 90 and 112 MM would be in line.  For the Orioles, it would perhaps mean them paying two to three times what he is worth to them due to the team's positional scarcity for catcher.

So, there is potential there for McCann to make sense for the Orioles if they really need that DH bat and perhaps a catcher who hits right handers well.  However, are there better bats out there?

• Shin-Soo Choo probably signs somewhere in the neighborhood of a 5 year deal and 105 MM.  He has a much better bat and can be a natural fit in left field for the Orioles.  
• Mike Napoli could potentially provide Wieters with a backup and has a better bat than McCann's, but with no glove.  At perhaps 3 years and 50 MM, he probably would fit better given positional scarcity.  That said, can he really still catch?  
• Carlos Beltran would be the last bat I would find of that level and above.  He could be slotted into the Orioles left field position or designated hitter, but his defense is pretty tough to watch these days.  He will likely see a 3 year, 50 MM deal as well.

You may have noticed that my free agent predictions are higher than what I used last Monday (FanGraphs community projections).  Based on something I heard, I think those FanGraphs projections might need to be bumped up 30%.  I recognize that an increase like that is pretty massive, but that seems to be the word.

Would Mike Napoli Be a Smart Signing for the Orioles?

Mike Napoli wants to stay in Boston... Heard this morning the Orioles will make a strong run for him. Good luck peeling him away, Duq.
— Jen Royle (@Jen_Royle) November 4, 2013

I don't know much about Jen Royle, but apparently she now co-hosts a show on the Boston Herald's radio station. More importantly, last week she mentioned that the Orioles may have interest in Mike Napoli, who hit .259/.360/.482 while on a one-year deal with the Red Sox. Who knows if any of that above information from Royle is true or not, but let's use it to start a discussion about Napoli and his potential fit with the Orioles.

It has been noted a few times on this site, but Orioles' designated hitters (as a collective unit) were awful last season. Signing a guy like Napoli would rectify that problem. Napoli had a monster season, and he would fit in quite nicely in the middle of the O's lineup alongside Chris Davis and Adam Jones. Although the 2013 season was one of his best, Napoli's career year at the plate came in 2011, when he hit a remarkable .320/.414/.631 (.445 wOBA) in 432 plate appearances. Understandably, he hasn't hit that well since, but with wOBAs of .349 and .367 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, and a career slash line of .259/.357/.502 (.371 wOBA), Napoli has more than demonstrated his ability to wreak havoc at the plate.

But, even though Napoli is extremely talented and the Orioles could use an offensive upgrade, this move isn't a perfect fit. Let's explore the reasons why.

Mike Napoli, before his beard got out of control
(Photo via Keith Allison)

1. Injury risk. Why was such an offensive talent signed to a one-year deal anyway? He originally agreed to a three-year, $39 million deal with Boston last December, but during his physical it was discovered that "he has avascular necrosis in both hips, the same degenerative condition that ended the career of two-sport star Bo Jackson." The medical world has come a long way since Bo Jackson's heyday, but that news was serious enough for the Red Sox to withdraw their three-year offer. Instead, Napoli signed a one-year, $5 million deal, with the potential of earning a total of $13 million ($8 million in incentives) if he stayed relatively healthy. He then proceeded to appear in 139 games (one short of his career high) and collect 578 plate appearances (a career high), and he got his $13 million.

But Napoli won't be getting a one-year deal this go-round, and apparently he has already received a multiyear offer from the Red Sox. It would be silly for him not to explore other offers, especially since he's expected to sign a contract in the neighborhood of three years and $42 million. But more years and more money means an elevated amount of risk for whichever team signs him. Not catching anymore probably saves Napoli's hips somewhat, but it's unknown how long he will be able to stay healthy and contribute.

2. Loss of draft pick. Because the Red Sox extended Napoli a $14.1 million qualifying offer, whichever team signs him will have to forfeit either a first- or second-round draft pick in the upcoming MLB draft. (If Napoli does leave Boston, the Red Sox will gain a compensatory selection between the first and second rounds. Because, you know, that makes a ton of sense. The small-market Red Sox need all the help they can get. The qualifying offer system needs to go away, quickly.) Because the Orioles do not pick in the top 10 in the upcoming draft, they will lose their first-round choice (17th overall) if they sign a player who declines a qualifying offer. Considering the weaknesses of the O's farm system, that is not a small price. (If you believe this report, Dan Duquette may have softened his stance on refusing to lose draft picks.)

3. Position and playing time. The Orioles don't need a first baseman -- offensively, at least. Davis was phenomenal last year, batting .286/.370/.634 (.421 wOBA), and barring a trade, he will be in Baltimore for at least a few more seasons. His defense was another story, though. Sure, he was nominated for a Gold Glove, but that doesn't mean all that much. According to some of the advanced defensive metrics, he wasn't that good (-1.2 UZR; -7 DRS). Among 19 qualified first basemen, Napoli ranked first with a 9.7 UZR last season. (He was also +11 runs per DRS.)  Davis finished 15th. Now, one season's worth of fielding data isn't all that helpful by itself. This was also the first time since 2010 that Napoli appeared in at least 70 games at first base (0.7 UZR; +2 DRS), and it was really the first time he's been full time at the position. (He was primarily a catcher with the Angels and Rangers.) Similarly, Davis hadn't played regularly at the position since 2009, when he appeared in 100 games at first (-1.4 UZR; -4 DRS).

Advanced defensive statistics still have a long way to go, and first base seems like one of the more difficult defensive positions to quantify defense. It's also difficult to get a great read on Napoli and Davis, who have not played first base regularly and have seasons in which they only played the position sparingly. Defensive numbers from partial seasons can be extremely misleading.

So if the Orioles brought Napoli aboard, what would they do with him? Would he mainly be the team's DH? Would he take over regular first base duties, which would then push Davis to be the team's DH? Or would the two split time at first? I have a hard time believing the Orioles would do anything to mess with Davis after his 53-homer season, but playing Napoli at first base over Davis would likely make the O's marginally better. And considering the Orioles are contenders, every little bit helps. But I doubt the O's would do that, and I don't think it is wise to sign a superior defender and then relegate him to full-time DH duties. Also, if you are a big believer in clubhouse chemistry and other intangibles, then signing a Red Sox first baseman to take over the position and moving Davis to DH for half or most of the time, after what Davis did last season, probably wouldn't go over well. I'm not sure how big of a factor that would be, but it's worth mentioning.

4. Better use of resources. A player like Napoli seems like a luxury for an Orioles team that has several other problem areas on their roster. Who knows exactly how much money the Orioles are planning on spending this offseason, but factoring in the money the Orioles are projected to hand out to their arbitration-eligible players, it probably isn't a ton. With needs in left field, second base, the starting rotation, and possibly the bullpen, spending around $14 million annually over multiple seasons for a 32-year-old player with injury concerns who will likely be slotted in the DH spot does not seem like the smartest move. If the Orioles have an unlimited budget, of course the move would make sense. Napoli would certainly make the Orioles a better team, and he's a much, much better option than someone like Kendrys Morales (who the Orioles may also be interested in).

5. Gross beard. Seriously, man. That's just nasty. (Only half-joking here. The O's did have to put up with this for a while.)

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It is worth noting that Roch Kubatko had this to say about a potential Napoli signing a few days ago: "I've been asked about Mike Napoli. The Orioles didn't want to give him three years last winter, before he was diagnosed with avascular necrosis in both hips. They won't want to give him three years this winter. And he will cost a draft pick."

I would be surprised if the Orioles have really changed their stance on Napoli. That's probably a good thing.