Blueprint For The 2016 Orioles (Option 5): Purchasing Innings In Bulk

As the four blueprint options posted before mine have been keen to point out and summarize, the Orioles' struggles in 2015 were primarily on the pitching and defense side of the game. The offense, meanwhile, scored more runs than it did on its way to an ALCS run in 2014 despite losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.

Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter recognize this. In their press conference at Camden Yards the day after the season ended (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3), Duquette made multiple mentions of the need to strengthen the pitching staff.

Photo - MASNOrioles on Youtube

I wanted to bury this in the lede, but it is too important to ignore - Wei-Yin Chen is a free agent. 191 1-3 innings pitched, totaling 2.8 fWAR in 2015, gone.

Anyhow, looking forward, the Orioles are on the verge of also losing Chris Davis, Steve Pearce and Matt Wieters from the lineup, a trio that created a total of 195 weighted runs (per wRC on Fangraphs). Cruz and Markakis, for whatever it's worth to you, created 188 runs together in 2014 going by that same metric.

Gerardo Parra, while we're at it, totaled -0.8 fWAR over two months in an Orioles uniform. So it's tough to count him as a "loss" at this point.

The team is now left with a lineup of Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and... six other guys.

Look, it would be antithetical for me to go against the grain here and suggest the organization look into trading Manny Machado this offseason. This blueprint will instead lay out a plan for the Orioles to push back into the playoffs in 2016 while hopefully not selling more draft picks to the Dodgers.

At a glance, the Orioles only have payroll obligations to three players entering 2016:

1. Adam Jones - $16.3 million
2. Ubaldo Jimenez - $13 million
3. J.J. Hardy - $12.5 million

$41.8 million. Not too shabby, even if it does include Hardy's degenerated shoulder.

So back to the Chen ordeal.

He will be the first of three players to be granted a qualifying offer, joining Davis and Wieters. All three are Boras clients, thus making it a strong possibility that all three decline. Davis and Chen are no-brainers (both will receive longer length contracts with higher AAV) while Wieters' case depends on if he wants one year to reestablish his value. If so, he would clearly accept as no other team would go near $15.8 million for a catcher coming off a 1.0 fWAR season following a year off for Tommy John Surgery.

For all intents and purposes of this blueprint, I am going to presume Wieters declines and seeks a two or three year deal on the open market, at least.

That brings the Orioles three compensation picks in the 2016 draft. Please don't sell these, Dan. They provide tremendous value, I promise.

Next up are the arbitration eligible players.

Photo - Keith Allison

Using the projected numbers from MLB Trade Rumors, these are the players that should be tendered for 2016 and what they will receive as compensation:

• Nolan Reimold - $1 million
• Chris Tillman - $6.2 million
• Miguel Gonzalez - $4.9 million
• Ryan Flaherty - $1.5 million
• Zach Britton - $6.9 million
• Brad Brach - $1.1 million
• Manny Machado - $5.9 million

No Brian Matusz on that list. Projected at $3.4 million, that's a lot of money for a guy who walks three and a half batters every nine innings and lets 37 percent of inherited runners score (going by his 2014 line).

Gonzalez and Tillman are what they are. Semi-productive bounce back seasons make both of these deals still worthwhile, both costing less than the price of a win on the open market and both with the possibility of providing innings to a stunningly mediocre rotation. Let's also pray and hope Gonzalez's elbow stays in tact.

Flaherty is useful for when Hardy goes down with a Spring Training shoulder strain, and Brad Brach is primed to step in as Britton's setup man (alongside Dylan Bundy) with Tommy Hunter in Chicago (though not on the NLDS roster) and Darren O'Day likely pricing himself out of Baltimore with four straight very productive and healthy years since Andy MacPhail claimed him off of waivers mid-2011.

As an aside, O'Day seems primed to join the Nationals. The Washington bullpen will look back to Storen to close, Papelbon is likely off of that roster by Opening Day, and O'Day's wife works for the Fox News affiliate in DC. All that plus Ted Lerner likes to spend money.

That brings us to ten players at $69.3 million.

Free Agency

Photo - MASNOrioles on YouTube

I don't expect Duquette to make even a single big splash in the free agent market, as his philosophy has always been to "build the team year round." He has tended to shy away from multi-year contracts completely, preferring to make non-headline minor league deals for AAA pitchers. But again, for the purpose of this exercise, here is what Duquette should do with the remaining $50 million or so:

Denard Span

I have to admit that I'm being a bit of a copycat here. The four blueprints prior to mine included Span, and while he wasn't initially on my radar, the idea has grown on me. A 2-4 win player on a three-year deal worth $43 million ($12 million in 2016, backloaded to $16 million in 2018) sounds solid with perhaps a touch of upside. If healthy ("if"), that locks down a corner outfield spot and allows the masses to continue the debate on if Dariel Alvarez can hit at the big league level (Adam Jones says yes).

Putting a solid center fielder into a corner spot generally makes for an above average defensive situation in theory, too.

With this deal in place, Span and Jones would be teammates for three years, and both of their deals would be set to expire in 2018. And also, paying Gerardo Parra any amount of dollars to come back just doesn't sound productive.

Jeff Samardzija

If Samardzija is looking for a multi-year contract rather than a one-year "show me" deal, four years for $74 million should get it done. With Cueto, Greinke and Price headlining the free agent pitcher market and Samardzija posting an ugly 4.96 ERA this past season, this deal would likely bring a decent amount of controversy.

With a walk rate well below his career average, no nominal rise in hard hit percentage, and three straight seasons of 200-plus innings, Samardzija could be a staple for a middling rotation that needs innings. The quality of those innings is, notwithstanding, to be determined.

Also, Samardzija pitched in the "no fans" game at Camden Yards this past summer, giving up seven earned runs and 10 hits over five innings. Take that for what you will.

Mike Leake

Let his hamstring heal up and hand Leake $67 million over five years. Only entering his age-28 season, Leake fits the mold as stated previously with Chen and Samardzija - he provides innings. 1083 2-3 of them over six seasons since his debut, to be exact. And check out the above chart - relatively consistent K/BB/HR rates over his career without any major outliers that cause concern.

Steve Pearce

One year, $4 million. The guy is familiar with the organization, and we all know how much this team thrives on culture. Plus, he was the Fan Choice bobblehead giveaway, so that has to count for something, right?

This move mostly acts as one of those Garrett Atkins/Derrek Lee type stopgaps while the organization reevaluates its first base solution long term. Christian Walker likely is not that answer. But Pearce/Flaherty for a year likely helps procrastinate that decision. It could be worse. I think.

Joe Blanton/Chad Billingsley/Aaron Harang/Shaun Marcum/Bud Norris/et al

Give a bunch of these types minor league deals with Spring Training invites and hope to shove them all in a juicer and squeeze 80-100 useful Major League innings out of them. Something like that.

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Dan Duquette is more than likely going to solve the pitching problems by trading for a couple of back of the rotation AAA arms, find a first baseman in the depths of the Atlantic League (Rafael Palmeiro, anyone?), a left fielder from the Canadian Junior National Team, and call it a day.

If the team wants to contend, it won't do so in its current situation if it "buys the bats and grows the arms," so to speak. The arms aren't there. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson are both "maybes" while Tillman and Gonzalez are not as reliable as we once thought. Stabilizing the rotation this offseason allows for Duquette and Showalter to manipulate the roster otherwise how they please. Shaving cost here by simply hoping that J.A. Happ on a three-year deal will work out in your favor is a heavier risk that the organization cannot afford at this time.

Any amount of additions within the current budget structure do not make up for the lost contributions from the 2015 team, unfortunately. The farm system is depleted, Manny Machado is set for free agency in three years, and Kevin Gausman still can't throw a quality breaking ball. But I digress.

Here is the blueprint summary:

• Denard Span - 3 years, $43 million
• Jeff Samadzija - 4 years, $75 million
• Mike Leake - 5 years, $75 million
• Steve Pearce - 1 year, $4 million

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Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down 
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants

Blueprint For The 2016 Orioles (Option 3): Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System

On the surface, things look bleak for the Baltimore Orioles. The team finished a disappointing 81-81 one year following a trip to the ALCS. To make matters worse, there is a well-reported free agent exodus looming and the farm system is devoid of any impact talent ready to help the major league team in 2016. The challenge is to find a way to keep the major league team competitive, while rebuilding the farm system with impact talent. With that in mind, I’m proposing to fill the major league team with depth by signing productive, yet unspectacular free agents that do not have draft pick compensation attached to them.

According to Cot’s Contracts, the Orioles are committed to spending $41.83 million in 2016, $43.83 million in 2017, $19.33 million in 2018, and nothing after that. These figures don’t include arbitration raises and minimum salary requirements, but assuming a $120 million payroll in 2016 (and subsequent increases to keep up with inflation), the Orioles do have money to spend, but they’ll need to spend it wisely.

Non-Tendered Players

Of the arbitration eligible players on the current roster, I would not tender Nolan Reimold or Paul Janish a contract (MLB Trade Rumors estimates their arbitration figures to be at $1 million and $700K, respectively). Their skill sets can typically be found on cheaper (minor league) deals.

Qualifying Offers

Qualifying offers (estimated to be $16.4 million in 2016) should be given to Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters. I’d expect all three to decline, although I suppose there is a possibility that Wieters accepts, which could throw a wrench into my plans. Worst-case scenario, the Orioles have a catcher who provides league average offense (100 wRC+ in 2015) with above average defense (even with a weakened throwing arm) for one year at $16.4 million. That’s not a bad thing.

2016 Roster

Using Cot’s Contracts and MLB Trade Rumors assumptions on arbitration and minimum salaries, here’s who I believe should return in 2016 and how much money they’ll be making in 2016.

What we’re left with are vacancies at starting pitcher, first base, both corner outfield spots, a bullpen spot, and two bench spots. Oh, and approximately $44.7 million to fill them.

Infield

Manny Machado is awesome and now that he’s entering his arbitration years, he’s a prime candidate to sign to a long-term deal. However, according to this tidbit earlier this week, it doesn’t seem to be on the offseason agenda, so we'll stick with the MLBTR arbitration number for now.

Duquette said Machado long-term extension is something that can be discussed, but there are more higher priorities this offseason. #orioles

— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) October 5, 2015

If J.J. Hardy can physically play shortstop, he needs to be there. His trade value is non-existent at the moment, so the Orioles can only play him (and hope he produces, which helps the team AND his trade value) or package him with every tradeable draft pick they have for someone to take his contract off their hands. Having said that, Baltimore may want to add some minor league depth at SS in case Hardy is injured, ineffective, or both.

As for first base, I’m with both Ryan P. and Ryan R. that Chris Davis should be allowed to seek employment elsewhere. I’d fill that hole with Mike Napoli on a 1 year, $5.25 million contract. Napoli had a slow start to his year, but finished with a .224/.324/.410 batting line in 2015 and a 98 wRC+ (which looks a lot like Chris Davis’ 2014 line). For someone who doesn’t do anything well but hit, that’s not great, but with a career low BABIP, there is a good chance he returns to his career numbers (125 wRC+) with some better luck. If he falters, the Orioles can call up Christian Walker or put in Steve Pearce (more on him later).

Outfield

Obviously, the two corner outfield spots were a problem last year. Jason Heyward would be the ideal fit (and worth giving up a draft pick), but a 26 year old free agent outfielder who has been worth more than 11 fWAR the past two years is an ideal fit for 30 teams, so I’m going to assume the Orioles engage him, but get outbid. With that in mind, I’m hopping on board the Denard Span bandwagon and signing him to a 3 year, $42 million contract with a 4th year team option ($14 million annually). As both Ryan’s previously pointed out, his outstanding defense is an asset to a starting rotation that is not overpowering and he’s been about 20% better than the league average hitter over the last two years according to wRC+. He also provides center-field insurance for an Adam Jones injury and gives the lineup a much-needed left-handed bat. His injury filled 2015 does cause some concern, but it should also keep him from receiving a qualifying offer.

As for the other outfield corner, I’d suggest a platoon between Gerardo Parra and the aforementioned Pearce. I’d re-sign Pearce to a 2 year, $12 million contract to play left field against left-handed pitching and anywhere else when the matchup is favorable. I like Pearce’s versatility (he even showed competency at second base in 2015), and while the proposed offer may end up being light, I think that could get it done considering the opportunity for playing time. Bringing back Gerardo Parra on a 3 year, $24 million contract would fill the strong side of the platoon. He had a strange 2015, where his power spiked and his defense cratered, and I’d expect both to return closer to his career norms moving forward. Although 2015 was an outlier for Parra, he’s always been a decent hitter against right-handers (career 102 wRC+), which is the only type of pitcher he should be facing.

Pitching Staff

The Orioles finished the 2015 season with the best bullpen in the majors according to fWAR. I agree that Baltimore should move on from O’Day, but I’m not giving him a qualifying offer. I’m also tendering Brian Matusz a contract, but looking to deal him, although the return may not be worth it. One thing you’ll see in the first figure is the inclusion of Dylan Bundy in the bullpen. It’s important to note that Bundy is out of options and unless he’s on the DL, he WILL be on the roster in some capacity or the team will absolutely lose him to waivers. A role as the long man in the bullpen will allow him to keep his innings in check, while getting him prepared for a starting job late 2016 and/or 2017. I’m not one to pay free agent dollars for bullpen help, so the final vacancy can be filled with any combination of players making minimum salary such as Chaz Roe, Oliver Drake, Jason Garcia, etc.

As for the starting rotation, I’d go with those 4 above to start the season, even if (barring a breakout year from Gausman) there isn’t an ace in there. The Orioles have a number of options to fill out the number 5 spot (Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Tim Berry, or even Bundy), but I’d rather bring in a free agent and let those 3 or 4 be my emergency starters once one (or more) of the starting pitchers becomes injured or ineffective. I’ll keep with the theme of looking for someone who isn’t attached to a draft pick and sign…

J.A. Happ. Here me out. I assumed the same thing for David Price as I did for Jason Heyward: great fit, worth a draft pick, is not coming to Baltimore. I also heavily considered Johnny Cueto, but became nervous about the contract required to get him (even a probable low estimate of 6 years and $133 million gave me pause), the health of his elbow, and the fact that he throws a cutter nearly 20% of the time (a current “no-no” in the organization).

Happ may not be a sexy addition to the starting rotation, but he’s dependable, left-handed (something the starting rotation lacks), and he’s been better lately. Happ finished the year with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.41 FIP, which was worth 3.3 fWAR. Amazingly, 2.1 of those wins came with the Pirates in only 63.1 innings. His 2015 results don’t appear to be smoke and mirrors, as his LOB% is in line with his career and his BABIP was actually 20 points higher. Additionally, Happ’s throwing his fastball harder and he’s getting more groundballs than he did earlier in his career.

Happ isn’t the ace that most people want, but he’s a quality and consistent starter. A good comp for Happ’s contract is Jason Vargas’ 4 year, $32 million contract with Kansas City. Since Happ will be 2 years older than Vargas at the time he hits free agency, I think a 2 year, $16 million contract with a 3rd year team option is reasonable.

Bench

There were originally two bench spots to fill, but one of those spots will be occupied by Pearce or Parra (depending on the pitching matchup). Let’s fill the other bench spot by taking a flyer on Matt Joyce for 1 year and $2 million. Joyce is coming off a terrible season, but has a career 112 wRC+ and has surprisingly been an average defender in left over the course of his career (3 DRS in 2,259.2 innings) if he’s needed. Having said that, he should NEVER face a left-handed pitcher and shouldn’t see time anywhere else in the field (other than DH).

Final Tally

• LHP J.A. Happ – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually, 3rd year an option) 
• OF Denard Span – 4 years, $56 million ($14 million annually, 4th year an option) 
• OF Gerardo Parra – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually) 
• UTIL Steve Pearce – 2 years, $12 million ($6 million annually) 
• 1B/DH Mike Napoli – 1 year, $5.25 million 
• OF/DH Matt Joyce – 1 year, $2 million

This gives the Orioles a full roster and a total salary commitment of $119.56 million. Despite only the original $41 million committed in 2016 and a $120 million budget, the Orioles don’t have the finances to pay for superstar level players due to the number of roster holes and arbitration eligible players. This strategy allows them to build depth in the field and on the mound with productive, if unspectacular players, while also keeping their early round draft picks while adding 3 additional selections due to the departures of Davis, Chen, and Wieters. A mid-market team like Baltimore needs to have a strong farm system in order to compete annually. Signing players without draft pick compensation attached to them helps accomplish that.

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Links to Previously Published Options
Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down 
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants

Blueprint For The 2016 Orioles (Option 1): Seeking A Cornerstone

Over the next week, Camden Depot will be offering a series of offseason blueprints for the Orioles to follow from our stable of writers (attn: Dan Duquette, these are free to use).  At the end of the series, Jon Shepherd will put on the Great Decider hat, run through the plans, and choose what makes most sense to him given the current structure of the franchise.  Under consideration are choices in handing out Qualifying Offers, releasing players, free agent targets, and finding a way to fit within what is a realistic, slightly generous budget of 120 MM.  If any of our readers feel the urge to write in a plan, send it to CamdenDepot@gmail.com.  Do it well and we just might consider your plan as well.

Option 1: Seeking a Cornerstone
Ryan Pollack

Photo - Arturo Pardavila III

Qualifying Offers

Before free agency comes the qualifying offers (QO). Assuming the QO this year is about $16.4 million, I would offer them to Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters, each of them can be effectively argued as above average or better non-relievers. If history is any guide, none will accept because no one has ever accepted one. (Wieters may think long and hard about it, though.) Steve Pearce and Darren O’Day worth the offer far less than $16.4 million and the goal here is not to earn the honor of being the first team to have their QO accepted.

Free Agent Philosophy

The Orioles have several mediocre starting pitchers already under contract to provide respectable pitching. Although defense is becoming more appreciated each year, defense appears to be undervalue in relation to pitching. With that in mind, a focus on defense will help make the current motley rotation by turning the large number of balls in play into outs and to prevent walks from turning into runs scored. With the infield defense locked down for the next few years, and with Adam Jones still patrolling center field, the focus should be on the outfield corners and that focus should be on better defensive help than was seen in 2015.

The top priority should be securing Jason Heyward to play right field. Heyward’s young, an above-average hitter and a great defender. Having him on base will boost the offense, and having his glove means the team can use untested rookies and scrap-heap free agents on the mound instead of springing for elite pitchers. Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, et al. may actually pitch better knowing their ground balls will be scooped up and their fly balls will be pulled down in the outfield. Plus, Heyward can spell Jones in center field when the latter needs a turn at DH and perhaps replace him there altogether during the 2017-2018.

Whatever the offer to Heyward, I don’t think it can be higher at a higher annual salary than what Adam Jones is making ($16.3 million in 2016), at least not until 2018. Logic aside, it would not look right to snub the face of the franchise that way when he’s still producing on a daily basis. Fortunately, teams do not value defense in the same way they do offense, so we can get away with a lower offer to Heyward than some projections might indicate. I would offer him $157 million over 10 years, an average annual value of $15.7 million. This is potentially less annual money than what other teams would give him, so I’m hoping the 10-year deal length will sweeten the offer.

Now the team needs an everyday left fielder. Let’s offer Denard Span for $40 million over three years, or $13.3 million/year. He is coming off an injury-plagued 2015 so may have to take a bit less money than he’d otherwise have gotten. He is another center fielder in disguise, an above-average hitter with a history of a good glove.

The last free agent move will be to re-sign Matt Wieters for $36 million over three years or $12 million/year. He should be amenable to such an offer with his last full season (2013) being so bad and after missing so much time in 2014 and 2015. He knows the organization and, in particular, the pitching staff that he’ll have to work with every day. He’s not a superstar, but he’s a known quantity and that’s good enough for me. The short-ish length is a hedge against further injuries/ineffectiveness.

Let Wei-Yin Chen walk. We’ll replace his southpaw innings with T.J. McFarland, a serviceable long relief pitcher with a high groundball rate that fits a Machado/Hardy/Schoop defense. He’ll do even better with Heyward and Span running down the occasional fly ball he allows.

Let Chris Davis walk, too. We’ll 'replace' him with Christian Walker, who’s hit well at AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk. We’ll let O’Day and Pearce walk as well. Mychal Givens will slot in as the setup guy.

Finally, let’s pay Manny Machado. He’s entering his first year of arbitration on the heels of a legitimately improved offensive season. $7 million should do the trick. I am projecting 20% raises in arbitration for all the other players on the staff and for pre-arb players to make the same as they did the year before.

If we make these moves we come in around $114 million for the 2016 season, short of the $120 million budget. I would use the remaining $6 million to sign some backups like Paul Janish to spell Hardy when he gets injured, another reliever to add to the bullpen, and maybe to bring back Nolan Reimold for $1.5 million or so. Summary of major moves:

• Jason Heyward: $157 million / 10 years
• Denard Span: $40 million / 3 years
• Matt Wieters: $36 million / 3 years
• Manny Machado: $7 million / 1 year

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Option 1: Seeking A Cornerstone
Option 2: Building A Rotation
Option 3: Building Major League Depth And A Minor League System
Option 4: Well Rounded And Not Tied Down 
Option 5: Purchasing Innings in Bulk
Option 6: Trying To Make Chicken Salad
Options 7a/b/c: Shepherd Seeks A Few Outside Consultants