The Orioles and the Telephone Game

As many who follow the Orioles can attest, this has been a very peculiar off season and much of it seems to come from miscommunication from the front office.  It has resulted in a significant amount of confusion in the media and fan base and that confusion has led to a significant stoking of anti-Orioles sentiment.

The weirdness began when back channels began reporting that former Athletics' closer Grant Balfour had agreed to terms with the Baltimore Orioles.  Balfour's camp assumed that passing a physical was a formality because he had not had any issues with his arm in years.  As the physical was happening, the team scheduled a press conference before the week was out.  Then everything came a to a halt.

Balfour was so surprised and angry over being told he failed the physical that he called Dan Duquette himself to inform him of the mistake the Orioles were making as well as what he thought of how he was treated.  Balfour had good reason to be upset, the failed physical likely cost him a few million as other teams in need of closers began snapping them up and limiting his list of potential suitors.  Balfour then shared the MRIs of his shoulder with physicians he has worked with in the past and none of them found any issues.  In order to perhaps hold on to as much value as possible, Balfour's group had these physicians go public.  As he was agreeing to terms with the Rays, it was leaked that the Orioles' concern had to do with his wrist and knee.  He did undergo surgery for his knee last February, but the procedure was reported as normal and without issue.  Balfour appears genuinely confused by the assertion that he has a problem with his knee.

What confuses me about this situation is that from what I know, the Orioles must divulged any health risks they uncovered during their physical.  If Balfour's knee is hurt, then I think they have to tell him.  Being a person with rather poor impulse control, I doubt that this whole focus on his shoulder was grand theater designed to keep teams from looking too closely at his knee.  It seems too elaborate and that level of trick of hand might get his agents in hot water.  I still do not know what to make of that situation.

The next peculiar moment occurred in early February during FanFest.  Duquette confirmed to the local press that he had engaged extension talks with Chris Davis' agent, but that little progress had been made.  Upon being asked, Chris Davis expressed surprised, mentioned how he wished to stay in Baltimore, and said he was interested in hearing what the offer was.  Davis' agent is Scott Boras who is often thought of in the public as ignoring player's wishes when negotiating.  However, this view is probably a heel by design.  Boras' number one job is to serve his players by getting them a large contract.  He usually succeeds.

I do find it peculiar that Boras would not inform Chris Davis about any offers.  For Boras to do his job, he needs to know what Davis wants.  Perhaps Davis has already been explicit in his needs and Boras thinks he can operate for a while before bringing him into the process.  Based on what I know, I find that to be somewhat improbable.  Both Davis and Matt Wieters have been highly interested since the off season began to learn what sort of investment the team was willing to put into them.  That has been a pretty steady mantra coming from them, so I would venture a guess that they would be made aware of any action happening on that front.  Again though, I am not involved in those extension talks, so I do not know to what extent things have been discussed or how well Boras is keeping Davis up to date on their progress.

The final weird tale of different realities or missed communication is the A.J. Burnett situation. For a solid two months, it was widely reported local and nationally that the Orioles were "all in" on Burnett.  They were waiting on him to make a decision before moving on to other things.  Everyone agreed though that unofficial word from the warehouse was that Burnett was the team's primary target.  However, amidst a quiet February, news broke that he signed a rather comfortable deal with the Phillies.  Later, Burnett expressed in an interview that the Orioles (as well as the Nationals) were not really involved in the negotiation process and did not put down an offer.  A day later, Burnett corrects himself to say that the Orioles were involved and did put in an offer.

What we have are three seeming miscommunications of rather significant things.  A failed contract, a major investment in a player, and the loss of a player supposedly highly wanted by the team.  We certainly can explain away rational answers for these events.  We can also certainly get crazy and dedicate ourselves to fanciful stories.  However these things went down though, this has to be one of the weirdest off seasons of any team in recent history in terms of information coming out of the front office being contradicted by those directly involved.

Relievers Getting Paid the Same and Resolving the Orioles Closer Postion

Hunter is Baltimore Backup Plan | Photo by Keith Allison

Yes, we have written a great deal about the Orioles' closer position over the past few months.  It has ranged from a lament about how much in terms of resources was devoted to Jim Johnson, to potential replacements, to the Grant Balfour quasi-fiasco, and, now, where to go now.  Before we move on, let me write one thing, I doubt the Balfour situation changed anyone's mind about the Orioles.  I think all it did was provide evidence for people to solidify their thoughts about the Orioles.  This, I believe, is primarily true because most people in baseball have negative thoughts about how the team has been, is being, and will be run.  With that in mind, the club can still compete for high profile players and retain high profile home grown talent.  They have done it and they will do it.  That said, not all teams and talent will be willing to listen too long given the history of the franchise.  However, I digress.  That is a topic to explore at another time.

In general, closers are overrated.  Over time, that view has ebbed and flowed.  As the save statistic was embraced and bullpen specialization flourished in the 1980s, we began seeing importance grow for pitchers who ended game and threw maybe 60-70 innings a year.  The high water mark took place in 1989 where for a few weeks the Royals' signing of Cy Young winning closer Mark Davis to a 4 year, 13 MM contract made him the highest paid player in baseball.  Since Davis, no closer has been the highest paid player in baseball.  A lesser water mark took place in early 2000 when Mariano Rivera set a record for a salary awarded through arbitration when he lost and received 7.25 MM.

Currently, there appears to be an ebb after Ruben Amaro Jr. awarded the last major free agent deal to a closer when he signed Jonathan Papelbon to a 4 year, 50 MM deal with a vesting option for another 13 MM.  This off season there has been a common refrain that the golden age of closers has ended as teams become more aware that the difference between an elite 60 innings pitched and a good 60 innings pitched might not matter all that much.  That, perhaps, not all relievers have the mentality to be closers, but many of them do.  The longest contract a closer has received has been 2 years (i.e., Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, Joe Nathan), the great commitment was 20 MM (i.e., Joe Nathan), and the largest annual salary was 10 MM (i.e., Joe Nathan, Brian Wilson).  Those numbers may not seem much different than Papelbon's.  This seems especially true when you consider the injury histories, age, and performance of the pitchers mentioned.  In other words, this idea that the golden age is done might be more sound than fury.

Maybe the tide is turning, but I don't see the proof of it yet.  Here is a quick table showing top relief pitcher signings over the past several years and contract salary adjusted for this offseason (assuming 20% increase in costs this offseason):

		MM	Adj MM
2014	Joe Nathan	10	10
	Brian Wilson
2013	Rafael Soriano	14	16.8
2012	Jonathan Papelbon	12.5	16.6
2011	Rafael Soriano	12	16
2010	Jose Valverde	7	10.5
2009	Francisco Rodriguez	12.3	16.5
2008	Mariano Rivera	16	21.3
2007	Danys Baez	6.3	9.1

By my eye, it appears that this may simply be a down year and teams are valuing elite closers as guys worth about 2-3 WAR.  Perhaps the only real exception would be Rivera who had two things going for him: (1) Hall of Fame closer ability and (2) deep Yankee pockets.  Nathan and Wilson (throw in Jim Johnson if you wish) are simply closers with some questions attached to them in their placement as a first division closer.  Nathan and Wilson have injury concerns while Johnson closes in an incredibly non-traditional way.

Now, with that slight aside over with, whom should the Orioles target?  Below is a quick rundown of five candidates who would be on my board (in order of my preference):

Jesse Crain
In July, the White Sox placed Jesse Crain on the disabled list for a shoulder strain/tendonitis.  The Rays traded for him while he was on the disabled list and never pitched for them even though he was activated at the end of September.  The Rays lost LHP Sean Bierman and SS Ben Kline for their overtaking of Crain's rehab.  His time missed for a shoulder problem is worse than Balfour's long junked shoulder.  However, Crain will carry a lower price tag because of it and arguably has been the better pitcher during this time.  He is a fly ball pitcher, like Balfour, who dominates right handed batters and makes lefties look slightly below average.  It certainly is a split that can work as a closer.  He can throw in the mid 90s with a plus breaking ball.  He would be a target as a low base with incentives type of deal.  Crain should also be cheaper as he has never experienced closing opportunities as a MLB pitcher.

Grant Balfour
Unless you have been out in the remote tundra, you probably know who Balfour is, the troubles the Orioles have had with him, and how the closer market moved on while he danced with the Orioles.  Why do I prefer him?  I imagine his arm is no worse than it was the past several years (which means that his arm has been on the brink of falling apart for a long while as it is with many older pitchers with injury history)/  I have him second because he has been a solid fly ball pitcher.  He is certianly fine as a closer.  With many things being equal and if Crain looks like he cannot pitch, I'd try to make things right with the Orioles and mend this relationship.  Not signing him likely won't affect things much, but it would be good to show some good faith that can be leaned on with other players in the future.

Suk-Min Yoon
Yoon is a free agent after a rather successful Korean Baseball Organization career.  As a starter, he profiled as a low 90s pitcher with a good changeup and an average breaking ball.  It is a profile that looks good as a backend arm in a rotation, which is supposedly what Yoon is looking for.  Part of the reason he has yet to sign is that the starting pitcher market has been frozen as teams have been waiting to see what happens with Masahiro Tanaka.  With his posting ending in late January, free agent pitchers probably will need to simply move forward.  The other issue with Yoon is that performance in KBO is often held as suspect and he has also experienced shoulder trouble.  From my perspective, I think a multiyear deal with an initial handling of closer duties would put Yoon in a position for success.  He might see an uptick in his velocity as well, which will make his offering more playable in MLB.  Worse comes to worst, he can be a middle reliever and spot starter.  I'd offer something around 3 years and 10 MM and see what comes of it. I don't think he is the third best closer available, but he should be able to admirably serve in this role while freeing up the team to spend elsewhere.

Fernando Rodney
What irks people most about Rodney is his rendition of Katniss from the Hunger Games after every successful save.  Aesthetically, it can be pretty annoying.  However, most fans like it when their team wins games and Rodney does a great job putting teams in the position of winning games.  He is one of the hardest throwers in baseball and misses a lot of bats.  You can rather easily argue that he is the best closer on the market.  With the Rays, he found performance levels similar to those he experienced early in his career and he is the only elite talent out there without the specter of arm troubles.  He is looking for Joe Nathan money and commitment.  Teams have no agreed so far with that assessment.

Miguel Gonzalez
MiGo is the second player on the list whose health is not questioned and is the only player on this list already owned by the Orioles.  So, why MiGo?  He simply is not that good of a starter and the reason for that is also the reason why I think he would do fine as a reliever.  Last year, the first time he runs through a lineup, he holds them to a .607 OPS.  Second time through, it rises to .671.  Third time, OPS of .903.  That deterioration is not something that works for well for a starter.  He tends to blow up in the 5th or 6th innings.  His ideal position would likely be as a long reliever, but he could work as a closer capable of going longer than three outs.  He also performs rather well against batters on both sides of the plate.  That is what the difference is between him and another starter who deteriorates rapidly after the first time through the order: Wei-Yin Chen.  Chen is rather susceptible to right handed batters.  Of course, a problem with this approach is that it will require the acquisition of a starting pitcher, which is more expensive than signing a closer.

Why not Darren O'Day and Tommy Hunter?
I hesitate making O'Day the closer.  I think he is the best reliever the team has and his services are needed to get the team out of sticky situations in the 7th and 8th innings in order for the eventual closer to be handed a clean slate in the 9th.  The worship of the save stat often prevents a team from employing their best reliever in some of the more important situations.  That explanation likely will irritate most people, but we have to acknowledge how pitchers are actually used.

Hunter?  Hunter displayed a rather amazing split between lefties (.857 OPS) and righties (.344).  He simply would not be best utilized as a closer.  Having trouble with lefties will not be exploited as well as Chen would be with righties simply because there are more righties than lefties in baseball as well as benches rarely having any decent options to pinch hit.  As an arm in the pen, Hunter can be deployed in right handed hitting heavy innings to make short work of the side.  This makes him a solid option as the third righthander in the pen, but not much more than that or he will be exposed.  This does not mean he would be a horrible closer.  He would be acceptable in that role.  The issue is that I think his value would likely decrease in that role.

Failed Physicals and Testing the Orioles' Success

An Unhappy Grant Balfour

Grant Balfour has to be pretty upset over his failed physical with the Baltimore Orioles.  He has to be upset because being refused by a team dampens the glow of your free agency as well as stalls you out while other teams like the Indians and Padres find solutions for their closer role.  Perhaps what might make you even more distraught is that the Orioles have been well served when their medical staff shakes their heads no.

Now, some of you out there may be taking the easy rationalization path and accuse Angelos of inserting himself into the process.  That line of thought includes shipping Johnson off due to his price tag and then him somehow being blindsided by the Balfour proposal even though it was a very long and public courting.  There are some mental gymnastics on display there, which is not to be unexpected.  Angelos' real and imagined interaction with the operation of the club has helped cultivate the part of us that is driven toward the conspiratorial.  It is difficult to reason with those who have given in to those urges because that belief system requires a near complete suspension of disbelief.  These individuals tend to believe in absolutes.  I will try to reason anyway.

What we have is a disagreement between two sets of medical staff using somewhat non-standardized assessment.  On each side sits well-respected doctors on their own right.  On the Orioles side is essentially the same staff that approved the physicals of Adam Jones and others.  On the other side lauded by Balfour's team are doctors responsible for his shoulder surgery and conducted his contract physical for his previous team, the Athletics.  As you can see there is interplay in non-standardized assessment tools as well as involvement of individuals who have invested interests.  That can result in honest disagreement and unconscious bias with only Balfour's side talking.  The Orioles side cannot speak due to medical privacy laws, which Balfour could waive (but I see no reason for him to consider that and the union would be rightfully upset).  Anyway, the Orioles' process has served them well in the past.  Perhaps I have forgotten a few names, but the three major free agents before Balfour who were at the threshold and not invited in were Xavier Hernandez in 1999, Aaron Sele in 2000, and Jeromy Burnitz in 2006.

Xavier Hernandez
With Alan Mills departing in free agency, the Orioles looked to fill their setup man void.  They agreed to terms with Xavier Hernandez on a two year deal for 2.5 MM that also included an option.  The previous year was spent in the Rangers pen putting up a 3.57 ERA (135 ERA+) that looked awfully dependent on luck due to a remarkably low BABIP.  Anyway, the physical came out poorly and the deal was pulled back with Hernandez filing a grievance.  Houston wound up signing him for 1 year at $750,000.  He never made it out of Spring Training.  However, the team did not completely make out as Frank Wren's front office made a mistake which enabled Hernandez to take a settlement for 1.75 MM.  Additionally, they had the poor judgement of signing Heathcliff Slocumb to replace Hernandez.  Future signings would now include a rather meticulous protocol for ensuring deals.  Current Braves GM Frank Wren was the GM for Baltimore at the time.  In interviews since, he has attributed the Hernandez signing as the impetus for Angelos acting on signings and trades with physicals being an excuse to nix deals he did not like.  One could say that that sounds like sour grapes.

Aaron Sele
After the 1999 season, the Orioles were looking better their rotation with the absence of Juan Guzman.  Sele would team up with Mussina to form a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.  In 1999, Sele was 5th in Cy Young voting as a rather strong strikeout pitcher who managed 18 wins with a decent (at that time) 4.79 ERA (106 ERA+).  He was not as astounding as the wins made him out to be, but he was certainly solid for the Rangers.  Sele and the Orioles agreed on a 4 year, 29 MM contract.  His physical turned up some issues with his shoulder and the team reduced the deal from four to two years with the Baltimore medical staff saying that Sele had 400 innings left in the arm before his shoulder went out.  Sele walked.  He wound up signing that two year deal for 14.5 MM, but with the Mariners.  There his strikeout rates cratered, but a strong Seattle defense and SafeCo helped him maintain a very successful stint in the Northwest.  He turned that performance into a 3 year, 24 MM deal with the Angels where he proceeded to develop shoulder problems and found himself on the DL with a rotator cuff injury 550 innings after he walked away from Baltimore.

Jeromy Burnitz
Burnitz agreed in principal to a 2 year, 12 MM deal with the Orioles in 2006.  The 37 year old still showed some power, but was a mess in the field and had seen a difficult 2005 with the Chicago Cubs.  The Orioles presented him the terms for the agreement to pass and Burnitz' agent was concerned about the Orioles' terms related to the physical..  He wound up evacuating the deal and securing a 1 year, 6.7MM deal with a mutual option.  Burnitz proved to be horrific for the Pirates, suffering from leg problems all season long.  After his miserable season in Pittsburgh, the team declined his option.  Shortly after that decision, he retired.

Moving Forward
As you can see, there have been only a few contentions over the years.  Even last off season saw a problem with Jair Jurrjens and resulted with the team and him agreeing on a minor league deal.  What is remarkable is how the decision to not offer a MLB deal to the player or to provide a stringent protocol for finalizing the deal has succeeded in the case studies above.  This does not bode well for Balfour, but, of course, there are always exceptions.  We shall see.  There have been some rumblings between the Orioles and Balfour's representation.  Regardless of the emotions expressed, the team likes Balfour, but wishes to be better protected.  Balfour will likely shop himself elsewhere.  If unsatisfied and willing to swallow some pride as well as assuming the Orioles are patient, the two sides may still come to an agreement.

Other names in play that have been kicked around are Tommy Hunter, Fernando Rodney, and Jonathan Papelbon.  However, my bet is that none of them will be the closer.  It will be someone else or, a slight chance, Balfour.

Grant Balfour Going Elsewhere; Why That Might Be Good

Many fans rejoiced when the Orioles had apparently signed Grant Balfour on Tuesday, not necessarily because they knew a whole lot about Balfour, but because his arrival represented the team's first free agent signing of note. However, the soon-to-be 36-year-old right-hander from Australia won't be taking over the closing duties from Jim Johnson after all. Roch Kubatko of MASN hinted on Thursday night that when the Orioles received the results of Balfour's physical, there was some kind of issue. Apparently the issue is with Balfour's right shoulder; as Kubatko mentioned, "Something was revealed on the X-rays that must have raised concerns." Concerns were definitely raised, and by Friday, the deal was off.

So what happened? According to Kubatko, the Orioles simply went with what their doctors said:

#Orioles went with drs recommendations. Would probably do 1 year with option. 2nd guaranteed year became issue after physical
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) December 21, 2013

Even though the two-year, $15 million contract seemed to be a reasonable deal, it's still a lot of money for an aging reliever. Plus, the Orioles are notoriously wary of taking risks on free agent pitchers (mostly starters, but still):

The Orioles traditionally don’t give starting pitchers deals beyond three years. Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette doesn’t like to do it, and club owner Peter Angelos doesn’t like to do it.

Balfour isn't a starting pitcher, obviously, but the normally cautious Orioles evidently weren't wild about handing over guaranteed second-year money to Balfour. Eduardo Encina and Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun did an effective job on Thursday of going over Balfour's injury history:

[B]efore Balfour, who converted 62 of 67 save opportunities for the Athletics over the past two seasons, emerged as a dependable late-inning arm, he missed two full seasons in 2005 and 2006 after reconstructive elbow and shoulder surgeries.

As a member of the Minnesota Twins, Balfour had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in May 2005. Four months later, he had surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his shoulder, costing him the entire 2006 season.

Balfour has not missed time because of his shoulder since. He’s been on the major league disabled list just twice, having missed 32 games with an intercostal strain in 2010 and 13 games for an oblique strain the next season. Last offseason, Balfour had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, but returned to the mound within two weeks and was on Oakland’s Opening Day roster.

As you'd expect, Balfour claims that he's completely healthy, and as told to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, he had a few choice words for Duquette and the Orioles:

“I called Dan Duquette and told him, “I’ve played in this league for 10 years, I deserve to be treated with respect and you did not treat me with respect. Two well respected physicians said I am completely healthy – because I am healthy. I’m a fighter and a winner and I would have given you your best chance to win.

“I was looking forward to pitching for the Orioles and helping them to go to the World Series, where they haven’t been for 30 years,” Balfour continued. “I wanted to help them as a team.”

Balfour is a fiery guy, and I'm sure he wholeheartedly believes all of that. Still, the Orioles likely realize that the missing piece to their World Series puzzle probably isn't a single good but not fantastic reliever. Besides, Balfour can't help the team if he's injured.

Balfour and his agents understandably have a few doctors on their side. (Kubatko shared an amusing anecdote on one of those doctors.) But they aren't the Orioles' doctors, and the team is going with their word. The Orioles are probably more cautious than most teams -- right or wrong, good or bad. Overall, the whole thing still looks bad for the Orioles, and it will look even worse if Balfour signs with another team and pitches well. But for two years and $15 million, they weren't willing to risk being wrong.

To me, it's laughable that some believe the deal was nixed simply because Orioles' ownership decided at the last minute that they just didn't want to pay that much money for Balfour. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com said as much:

the idea the orioles retracted the $15M/2 deal w/ balfour only because they changed minds is silly. o's loved that deal.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 21, 2013

The Orioles traded Jim Johnson away a few weeks ago, and ever since that move they've been linked to a handful of "proven closers" to fill the role. Now that Balfour is no longer an option, the O's are considering Fernando Rodney as an option at closer -- and he won't come cheap, either. If the Orioles were simply being cheap, I'm not sure why they would even bother with Balfour or Rodney in the first place.

Also, it's curious why Oakland didn't try to re-sign Balfour if the cost would have been close to what he and the Orioles originally agreed to. Rob Neyer of SB Nation wondered the same thing Friday morning: "[T]his still doesn't explain why the A's would happily trade for the Orioles' Jim Johnson, who's slated to make around $10 million next season. But it does explain why they let Balfour get away. We were wondering, since Balfour is essentially the same pitcher -- when healthy, that is -- as Johnson, and wound up costing significantly less money."

Maybe Oakland just really wanted Johnson, or maybe they want to see if they can use him as trade bait at the trade deadline. But it's also possible that the A's were, on some level, worried about Balfour's health.

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Before the Orioles' contract with Balfour fell through, I was working on a post on Balfour's change in pitch usage. It may not be as relevant now that he won't be pitching for the Orioles, but considering the injury issues being discussed, I think it's worth noting. So, here we go.

As I briefly discussed on Wednesday, Balfour accumulates three things: strikeouts (9.78 K/9), walks (3.94 BB/9), and fly balls (43.6 FB%). He's also posted sub-2.60 ERAs in each of the last four seasons. When his ERA has been up in the past -- for example, in 2009 when he had a 4.81 ERA -- he wasn't all that different to the current version of himself other than a slight increase in his walk rate. He was, however, unlucky BABIP wise (.296 vs. career .264), and he only stranded 65.4% of baserunners (career 76.8%). Because he doesn't get more groundballs and doesn't limit his walks more, he is not considered an elite reliever, but he is still very good.

Balfour has two main weapons: his four-seam fastball and slider. According to Brooks Baseball, since 2007 (which is as far back as their data goes) Balfour has thrown his four-seam fastball 74.5% of the time and his slider 15.7% of the time. He also mixes in a curveball (6.7%) and an occasional sinker (2.1%) and change-up (1%).

As he's gotten older, though, Balfour's pitch usage has changed in an intriguing way. His velocity has been steady; last year his average fastball velocity was about 93 miles per hour, which is right around his career average. But since 2008, he's throwing fewer fastballs and more sliders each year. Take a look:

Pitch usage chart for Grant Balfour

You'd think Balfour would lean more on his secondary pitch, his slider, if his fastball velocity was dropping, but as noted above, that isn't the case. The movement on Balfour's pitches hasn't drastically changed either. His four-seam fastball doesn't move quite as much vertically as it did a few years ago, but that's really it. The movement on his slider also hasn't changed much.

Overall, Balfour has done an effective job in his career of retiring left- and right-handed batters. Lefties have a combined .272 wOBA off of him, while righties have a .281 wOBA. But he's attacking both sets of batters differently than he did in 2008 (which was the year he really started to pitch effectively).

First, here's how Balfour's repertoire to left-handed batters has changed:



The takeaway there? Fewer fastballs and more offspeed pitches.

How about right-handed hitters?

 


Balfour basically throws only fastballs and sliders to righties. The drop-off in fastballs is much greater here, though, as is the jump in a single offspeed pitch.

Maybe Balfour has simply had to adjust to opposing batters as his career continues. In a time when there are a ton of specialist relievers, it's certainly valuable to be able to summon one pitcher who can pitch well against both right- and left-handed batters.

Changes in pitch usage happen, and it doesn't mean anything is wrong with Balfour's arm or shoulder. His velocity is still consistent with his career average. But maybe not having to reach back and throw as many fastballs has been beneficial for him and allowed him to keep pitching and dodge another major injury. I doubt it's a red flag, but it's at least some kind of flag (maybe with an Orioles' orange hue).

Stats via Brooks Baseball and FanGraphs.

How Does the Grant Balfour Signing Stack Up?

Grant Balfour (photo via Keith Allison)

The Orioles have been linked to Grant Balfour for more than a week, and yesterday the two finally came to an agreement. Balfour has agreed to a two-year, $15 million contract (or $14 million over two years, with $500,000 deferred each season, as Roch Kubatko mentioned). Kubatko also pointed out this interesting nugget: "Balfour reportedly had a higher-paying offer from another club -- believed to be two years with a vesting option -- but clearly preferred to sign with the Orioles." A sought after free agent reportedly taking a weaker offer from the Orioles? Crazy talk.

Balfour, who turns 36 on December 30, is a late-inning option the O's have been seeking since they traded away Jim Johnson a couple weeks ago. Balfour is technically a "proven closer" (72 career saves), so he is essentially guaranteed to assume the closer's role and will only lose it if he completely bombs. In 473 major league innings, he's posted a 3.27 ERA with a K/9 of 9.78 and a BB/9 of 3.94. So he'll get strikeouts, but he'll frustrate fans with walks as well.

Unlike recent acquisition Ryan Webb, Balfour is not a groundball pitcher (35.2 GB%), which helps to explain his low career .264 BABIP (groundballs are more likely to fall in for hits; home runs don't count). But groundballs can't leave the ballpark, and Balfour has a career HR/FB rate of about 8%. In his last three seasons (all with Oakland), that number jumped up, came back down, and jumped back up:

2011: 11.0%
2012: 5.3%
2013: 11.1%

Those 11% rates, except for a 26-inning stint with the Twins in 2003 (14.3%), are the highest he's posted in his career. The Orioles have to be hoping that number is closer to 5% (or at least 8%) in 2014 and 2015, but he'll now be pitching in Camden Yards, a more home-run-friendly ballpark.

Balfour joins a nice stable of bullpen arms including some combination of Darren O'Day, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Troy Patton, Zach Britton, T.J. McFarland, Josh Stinson, and Webb.

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So where does Balfour's contract stack up with other 2014 free agent relievers? Let's take a look:


The above table is not a complete or perfect list. It doesn't include ages or how long each pitcher has played or display in-depth stats. But it's a good place to start.

The O's didn't give Balfour three years, which is certainly a positive. Again, Balfour is good, but he also turns 36 soon. Multiyear deals for relievers can be dangerous enough without even factoring in age.

Another positive: Balfour is not a specialist. In his career, he has retired lefties (.272 wOBA) and righties (.281 wOBA) almost equally well. A few of the names listed above are right- and left-handed specialists, and Balfour is more valuable than that. The Joe Smith contract might be OK, but the Boone Logan deal looks pretty awful. That's also a lot of money for J.P. Howell and Javier Lopez. So $15 million is a chunk of change for almost any reliever for two years, but that signing looks pretty good compared to some of the mediocre ones.

Still, the John Axford signing looks pretty good, and maybe that's the direction the Orioles should have gone in instead. He may end up being just as good as Balfour, plus he signed for a reasonably priced one-year deal. Regardless, though, the O's at least marginally improved their bullpen at a relatively fair price, and the additions of Balfour along with Webb look solid. The Orioles should not be done making moves, but they could have done a lot worse than picking up Webb and now Balfour.

Sunday Comics: Balfour, Maybe?

This might just be what's in that brightly-colored package for Orioles fans this season, but we don't know for sure. What do you all think - is Balfour the right choice, and will the Orioles manage to snag him?

Fun fact: Balfour has very heavy-lidded eyes, at least in his roster photos.