Postseason Roster Crunch: Reviewing the ALDS and Previewing the ALCS

Photo by Keith Allison

Leading up the the ALDS, I wrote a few posts on roster decisions facing the Orioles. I looked at the pitching staff, De Aza vs. Lough, the 3B situation, as well as an overall look at what I projected the final roster would be.

There were a couple things I was wrong about. I looked at 2012 and concluded the Orioles would again go with 12 pitchers in the ALDS. However, this time around the team went with 11 pitchers, which allowed for the Orioles to carry an extra hitter, who, it could be argued, was either David Lough or Jimmy Paredes. Since I am volunteering what I got wrong, I'll also point out that I did mention that Brian Matusz could be excluded if the Orioles faced the Tigers. However, while I acknowledged the possibility, I wouldn't have bet on it. I was also wrong about Ubaldo Jimenez being included on the roster. I didn't see that one coming, and figured the Orioles would carry Ryan Webb or T.J. McFarland instead (or Brian Matusz, but I thought he'd be safe, regardless).

But on to the ALCS roster. While no assumption is safe given the clever way in which this team manages its roster, I would think it's likely that the Orioles carry 12 pitchers this round. And, since a 5-man rotation isn't necessary, pushing a starter to the bullpen capable of being the long-man, Brian Matusz is likely to be the pitcher added, not McFarland.

So, who is going to be excluded in order to make room for Matusz, Lough or Paredes? My guess is Lough. While he's the Orioles best defensive option in LF, De Aza is a perfectly capable defensive replacement for games when Delmon Young or Nelson Cruz start in LF (likely vs LH starters). On top of that, Buck has a lot more options for OF replacements should an unexpected need arise. This isn't the case in the infield, which is why I think Paredes will be included over Lough. What if J.J. Hardy's back flares up and Flaherty has to start a game at SS? Without Paredes on the roster, the Orioles would be left without a backup infielder.

Prediction number 1: Brian Matusz replaces David Lough on the roster. 

In terms of the rotation, I expect it to consist of the same 4 pitchers. As Jeff Long wrote about already, Kevin Gausman could (and probably should) be in the rotation, but it seems unlikely that Buck would change his mind now as to who he thinks are his 4 best options as starters.

There's also the question of Ubaldo. I disagreed with including him on the ALDS roster. However, his inclusion on the ALDS roster makes it all the more likely that he'll also be on the ALCS roster. While it is possible that McFarland could get a spot on the 25-man instead of him, it's not likely.

Prediction number 2: The same 4 pitchers are in the Orioles rotation
Prediction number 3: Ubaldo remains on the roster for the ALCS. 

There's also the issue of Chris Davis. Thanks to the Orioles making quick work of the Tigers, Davis is not eligible to play until Game 6 of the ALCS. However, he must be included on the roster from the start of the series, so the Orioles would have to play with a 24-man roster for 5 games in order for Davis to be available for Game 6. I don't think this will or should happen. Working with a short bench in order to possibly get 2 games worth of plate appearances from a player who was below league average production this season and hasn't seen game action in almost a month (over a month at the time he's eligible) because of an amphetamine suspension? Pass

Prediction number 4: Chris Davis will be left off the ALCS roster. 

Like I said above, the Orioles are clever in their roster management, so they could again surprise us with the roster they submit for the series. But I think the only change that will take place is Brian Matusz being added to the roster at the expense of David Lough.

The Orioles Sweep the Tigers: 4 Pivotal Moments

Photo by Keith Allison

As we all know by now, the Orioles swept the Tigers in the ALDS and now move on to face the Royals in the ALCS. Matt had a post yesterday about the Orioles success (or lack thereof) in shutting down the Tigers big bats. Today I wanted to look at a few of the bigger plays, moments, and decisions in the series that allowed the Orioles to advance.

1) The decision to bring in Andrew Miller in the 6th inning of Game 1

Tommy Hunter was warming during the 5th inning, so I assumed he'd be coming in for the 6th. But then Andrew Miller began warming. When Miller emerged from the bullpen to start the top of the 6th, it was pretty clear Buck would be counting on a Miller-O'Day-Britton combination to get the final 12 outs (Yes, that plan changed once the Orioles put 8 runs up in the bottom of the 8th). And why not?

This was great bullpen usage by Buck and a model that I think should be used by managers more often. Miller pitched 1 2/3 of hitless ball before giving way to O'Day. O'Day did give up a home run to Miguel Cabrera, but the Orioles had already added an insurance run at that point, and then they completely ran away with the game in the bottom part of the 8th. In what was the most important game of the season up to that point, Buck used a bullpen strategy different than he had used over the previous 162 games. He extended his best relievers a bit longer than he typically does and it paid off. Looking back to the 2012 ALDS, this isn't a huge surprise, as Buck relied heavily on his setup men (O'Day and Matusz) during that series as well.

2) The double play in Game 2

I was worried about having Ryan Flaherty at 3B. It wasn't so much that I think Flaherty's defense is inadequate, but more so that he isn't named Manny Machado. In the ALDS, Flaherty did plenty to ease the nerves of Orioles fans questioning his defense. There was no bigger example of this than the double play he started in the 5th inning of Game 2 (and yes, Schoop's arm was vital to the play as well).

The Orioles were trailing 5-3 at the time of this double play. A base hit to left would have put runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out for Victor Martinez. Instead, Martinez comes up with no one on base, Gausman strikes him out, and the inning is over. The inning would have taken on a very different complexion had Flaherty not made the diving stop to start the double play.

3) Delmon Young's double in Game 2

Really, just writing "!!!!!!!!!!!!!" with a video clip of this moment would suffice. I know it was only the ALDS, but I'll remember exactly where I was sitting for this play for the rest of my life. I was lucky enough to be at the game and found myself jumping up and down with the joy of a 5 year old child, high-fiving everyone within reach. The stadium went bonkers, I went bonkers, you went bonkers, we all went bonkers. This was a really cool moment. This is why I watch sports. Down by 2 in the bottom of the 8th and Delmon Young hits a bases-clearing double for the lead. Unreal.



4) The close play at first base in Game 3

The close play at 1st in the bottom of the 2nd went the Orioles way. Had it not, the inning would have continued and the Orioles would have been down 1-0. I've watched this replay a few times and it's so close. If the call on the field had been safe, I'm sure that would have stood. It was that close of a play.

Oh, and despite what people on TBS tell you (people who are paid to talk about baseball), there is no such thing as "tie goes to the runner."

That was a fun series to watch. The outcome made it even more enjoyable. Any of these games (yes, even the game the Orioles won by 9) could have gone either way. However, thanks to many decisions, moments, and plays breaking the Orioles way, including these 4, the team moves on to face the Royals in the ALCS.

The Bottom of the Eighth

For about eight and a half innings, the Tigers and the Orioles were involved in a closely contested matchup. Miguel Cabrera had just homered off of Darren O'Day to cut the O's lead to 4-3, and Max Scherzer, who had been OK but at least good enough to still be in the game at that point, headed back out to the mound to face the top of the O's lineup. But things quickly got out of hand.

Nick Markakis lined out to start the inning. But Alejandro De Aza doubled to right field, knocking Scherzer out of the game. Enter Joba Chamberlain. Adam Jones then hits a ball sharply to shortstop Andrew Romine, who botches the play. Because the ball gets away from Romine, De Aza is able to round third and score. 5-3. That closed the book on Scherzer. His pitching line for the night: 7.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 2 HR. Certainly going into the game the O's would have been content with five runs off of Scherzer. But they weren't done.

As has been stated ad nauseum heading into this American League Division Series matchup, two of the advantages the O's have over the Tigers are a superior defense and bullpen. Well, it didn't take long for both to come into play. To be fair to Chamberlain, Romine (who's one of the Tigers' defensive players who is not awful) should have made that play, or at the very least knocked the ball down, keeping De Aza at third. (After the game, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said this about Romine: "I can't remember the last time he made an error at shortstop." It was August 6.) But let's march on.

Jones steals second, and Nelson Cruz, who hit a two-run home run in the first inning, lines a ball up the middle to plate Jones. 6-3. Joakim Soria replaces Chamberlain.

Steve Pearce greets Soria with another liner up the middle. Cruz, not known for his aggressive baserunning, surprises center fielder Rajai Davis by going for third base. Davis doesn't charge the ball quickly enough, and his throw, which is on line but not quite long enough, short-hops third baseman Nick Castellanos. Cruz stays at third, but Pearce cruises in to second on the throwing error. If Davis, who's about an average center fielder, charges the ball, Cruz probably doesn't head to third, and if he does, he's likely out. A strong throw probably would have cut down Cruz. Still, instead of second and third and one out, or two outs if Cruz is thrown out, the O's have runners on second and third and one out. It's also worth noting that Davis is likely not 100 percent recovered from his groin injury, so it's possible that he shouldn't even be playing in the first place. And the O's surely know this.

With first base open, J.J. Hardy is walked intentionally. And with the bases now loaded, Ryan Flaherty singles to left. Everyone moves up a base. 7-3.

Nick Hundley follows with a slowly hit ground ball to shortstop that knocks in a run. Romine is forced to take the out at first. 8-3.

Jonathan Schoop follows Hundley's ground out with a double down the right field line, which plates two more runs. Soria had Schoop down 0-2 in the count, yet threw him a fastball that caught way too much of the plate. 10-3. Exit Soria, enter Phil Coke.

A Coke wild pitch enables Schoop to move to third. Markakis then walks. De Aza, who doubled earlier in the inning, doubles again, this time to right-center. 12-3.

Jones then fittingly grounds out to shortstop, where much of the trouble started so many batters ago.

The tale of the tape of the O's offensive explosion in the eighth? 12 batters, 6 hits (3 singles, 3 doubles), 8 runs, 2 walks (1 intentional), 1 steal. And the Tigers made two errors and had one wild pitch. The 12 runs are the most the O's have scored in a single postseason game.

The goal for this Orioles team in any game is to get five or six effective innings out of the starting pitcher, who then hands the ball to the bullpen with any kind of lead. Tillman managed five innings of two-run ball, and Andrew Miller (in all-hands-on-deck fashion) entered the game earlier than normal in the sixth inning, throwing 1.2 shutout innings. Then came O'Day, who gave up that solo shot in his one inning of work, and then Zach Britton. Things were going according to plan, and then a combination of good hitting, not good pitching, and bad defense turned a tight game into a laugher.

What's the reward for such an impressive eighth-inning rally? A noon game against Justin Verlander. At least the O's are familiar with the blueprint to beat the Tigers at this point. Just don't expect another single inning that contains quite so much Orioles Magic (or whatever the opposite of Tigers Magic is).

Q&A With Tigers Blogger Grey Papke

Grey Papke writes for the Tigers ESPN SweetSpot affiliate, Walkoff Woodward. Recently, he took the time to answer some questions I emailed him about the Tigers. I also answered some of his questions here. While you're there, check out their site for coverage of the series from a Detroit perspective.

Pat Holden: The Tigers have a good number of big name players, but who is a lesser known player that will likely have a big impact on the series?

Grey Papke: Does J.D. Martinez still count as lesser known? He's basically been for Detroit what Steve Pearce has been for you guys - a guy who was on waivers at one point, came out of nowhere, and was a big offensive producer for the team. I don't even want to think of where the Tigers would be without J.D. He adds a third big threat to the middle of Detroit's order - an extra bat who can provide support and knock in the bigger names of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. When Detroit's offense is clicking, J.D. is usually involved.

PH: Some things I've read throughout the year have been critical of Brad Ausmus in his first year as manager. How would you assess the job he's done?

GP: Well, he did get them to the playoffs, I guess, but I've been quite critical of Ausmus. He's pretty old school, which I deal with, but the big issue has been his bullpen management, which tends to vary from poor to awful. Admittedly, he hasn't been given many great pieces to work with, but Dave Dombrowski went out and parted with two pitching prospects to get him Joakim Soria. Ausmus has proceeded to use him basically only in blowouts or the seventh inning while Joba Chamberlain and Joe Nathan pitch to varying degrees of success. Soria is Detroit's best reliever but Ausmus essentially uses him as a mopup guy. The other criticism is that Ausmus can be slow to make moves; if he does something and it doesn't work, he sometimes gets caught without a backup plan. He can be frustrating to watch.

PH: As someone who has watched a lot more of the Tigers this year than me, is their defense as bad as advanced metrics suggest (26th in MLB)?

GP: Well... yes. The Tigers are strong at short with Andrew Romine and at second with Ian Kinsler, and Alex Avila is a good defensive catcher. Everything else is average at best. Nick Castellanos is below average at third, Miguel Cabrera is better at first than he was at third but still not great, and the outfield defense is a major issue - J.D. Martinez is okay, Rajai Davis is merely okay, and Torii Hunter isn't the Gold Glover he once was anymore. Defense is not Detroit's strong point, especially in the outfield, where the Tigers never really replaced Austin Jackson's outfield defense. Davis is a clear step down, and the defensive mistakes have become more frequent since he took over everyday duties.

PH: What worries you the most about facing the Orioles?

GP: If you ask me, the most important thing the Tigers have to do in this series is keep the Orioles from hitting the ball out of the ballpark, because Baltimore can hit homers pretty much anywhere. Us Tiger fans are very familiar with what Nelson Cruz can do in a postseason series as he basically singlehandedly torched them back in the 2011 ALCS when he was with Texas. As good as Detroit's rotation is, David Price can have moments of homer-proneness, Justin Verlander wasn't Ace Verlander this season, and Rick Porcello has been leaving the ball up at an alarming rate lately. If the Tigers can't keep the Orioles in the ballpark, they'll have issues.

PH: If you had to name one thing that makes you confident of the Tigers chances in the series, what is it? And the one thing about the Tigers that gives you the most concern?

GP: As for confidence: the Tigers will go as far as the rotation takes them, and it's hard not to feel good about a group headlined by Max Scherzer and Price. Plus, despite the concerns listed in the last question, Detroit pitching has actually done a pretty good job keeping homers down this year. And while I hate to be this obvious, the bullpen is a huge concern. Chamberlain and Nathan have been better lately but you still never really feel that great when you entrust the ballgame to them. If the Tigers get into a bullpen battle with Baltimore, the odds will be stacked against them.

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Thanks to Grey for taking the time to answer these questions.