16 May 2013

Strikezone Analysis for May 14 - 15: Padres at Orioles

Series Thoughts

In continuation of the trend I noticed this weekend, Wieters continues to have "noisy" glovework. He is inconsistent in presenting a clear target to his pitcher (the easily visible brown interior of his glove, as opposed to the black exterior, which blends with his chestguard); often this includes rapidly twisting his wrist, flipping his glove between open and closed, front and back presented to the pitcher. He also presents the backside of his glove in a different location than he seems to want the pitch. Finally, he has quite a bit of glove movement upon receiving the pitch. I know that this was something that the team worked on with him when he was first drafted and called up. Perhaps he could use a refresher course.

Click through the jump for the game-by-game.

May 14, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 2, San Diego Padres - 3

Tillman worked hard through the first few innings, running up multiple 20+ pitch innings. He wasn't helped by several strikes being called balls. That being said, he settled down, as did the strikezone, which ended up at about the season average for correct calls and was split evenly in calls favoring each team with 8 for the Orioles and 9 for the Padres. It was a slightly tight zone, with 81.82% of Rzone strikes called strikes, compared to the season average of 84.67%. Welke did improve his correct call rate from 85.79% in his first game behind the plate for the Orioles (Apr 21 vs. Dodgers) to 87.22%.

Umpire Real % of
Total
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Total
% of
Chances
Correct Calls 116 87.22% 116 87.22%
Incorrect Calls 17 12.78% 17 12.78%
Balls Called Balls 80 60.15% 89.89% 72 54.14% 98.63%
Strikes Called Strikes 36 27.07% 81.82% 44 33.08% 73.33%
Strikes Called Balls 8 6.02% 18.18% 16 12.03% 26.67%
Balls Called Strikes 9 6.77% 10.11% 1 0.75% 1.37%
Borderline - Balls 23 17.29% 54.76%
Borderline - Strikes 19 14.29% 45.24%
Baltimore Orioles Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 36 57.14% 87.80% 32 50.79% 96.97%
Strike Called Strike 17 26.98% 77.27% 21 33.33% 70.00%
Strike Called Ball 5 7.94% 22.73% 9 14.29% 30.00%
Ball Called Strike 5 7.94% 12.20% 1 1.59% 3.03%
Borderline Pitches 40 28.78%
Borderline - Balls 13 52.00%
Borderline - Strikes 12 48.00%
Calls in Favor 8 6.02% 8 6.02%
Calls Against 9 6.77% 9 6.77%
San Diego Padres Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 44 62.86% 91.67% 40 57.14% 100.00%
Strike Called Strike 19 27.14% 86.36% 23 32.86% 76.67%
Strike Called Ball 3 4.29% 13.64% 7 10.00% 23.33%
Ball Called Strike 4 5.71% 8.33% 0 0.00% 0.00%
Borderline Pitches 33 32.26%
Borderline - Balls 10 58.82%
Borderline - Strikes 7 41.18%
Calls in Favor 9 6.77% 9 6.77%
Calls Against 8 6.02% 8 6.02%



May 15, 2013: Baltimore Orioles - 4, San Diego Padres - 8

This is one of the games where the data, the strikezone plot, and what actually occurred can be tough to reconcile. A day game meant that I was unable to see how the zone was affecting the game. The strikezone plot shows a few egregiously wrong calls by the umpire. However, the overall 93.06% correct call rate was one of the best by an umpire this season.

Here's what I noticed about the strikezone plot.

  • The green square (i.e. a called ball thrown by a Baltimore pitcher) located well within the Rzone against a LHB was on a 3 ball, 1 strike count to Everth Cabrera. It was the last pitch that Freddy Garcia threw on the day and he had not been particularly sharp. TJ McFarland came into the game and gave up a double to the first batter he faced, allowing Amarista on second to score. Cabrera did not come around to score, as he was stranded on 3rd. However, it would seem that this missed pitch changed the course of that inning.
There are several San Diego pitches that were outside both the Rzone and the Tzone, but called a strike (i.e. a red triangle outside the dashed lines on the plot).

  • The first was on the second pitch to Nate McLouth in the first and was nearly 6" off the plate. Instead of a 2 - 0 count, it was 1 - 1. McLouth lined out to SS.
  • The second was to Manny Machado in the following at bat and was just 1'5.64" above the ground to a 6'2" batter, making it at least 3" below the zone. Instead of a 1 - 1 count, it was 0 - 2. Machado singled to CF.
  • The third was to Matt Wieters in the 6th and was Marquis' last batter of the game. The pitch was nearly 5" off the plate. Instead of a 1 - 0 count, it was 0 - 1. Wieters did end up drawing a walk.
I don't know exactly what affect those four pitches had on the game. For the Garcia pitch, the inning was quite possibly extended. For the McLouth and Machado pitches, the batter was put into less favorable counts and perhaps, instead of being able to drive a pitch solidly, resulted in the batter having to change his approach. The Wieters pitch likely had little effect.

 Either way, it's worth noticing these calls. While the Rzone calls in favor / calls against difference for the Orioles was a relatively insignificant 5 to 7, the Tzone 5 to 13 is troubling.


Umpire Real % of
Total
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Total
% of
Chances
Correct Calls 161 93.06% 155 89.60%
Incorrect Calls 12 6.94% 18 10.40%
Balls Called Balls 122 70.52% 92.42% 109 63.01% 97.32%
Strikes Called Strikes 39 22.54% 95.12% 46 26.59% 75.41%
Strikes Called Balls 2 1.16% 4.88% 15 8.67% 24.59%
Balls Called Strikes 10 5.78% 7.58% 3 1.73% 2.68%
Borderline - Balls 21 12.14% 61.76%
Borderline - Strikes 13 7.51% 38.24%
Baltimore Orioles Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 62 72.94% 92.54% 54 63.53% 100.00%
Strike Called Strike 16 18.82% 88.89% 21 24.71% 67.74%
Strike Called Ball 2 2.35% 11.11% 10 11.76% 32.26%
Ball Called Strike 5 5.88% 7.46% 0 0.00% 0.00%
Borderline Pitches 36 20.93%
Borderline - Balls 11 78.57%
Borderline - Strikes 3 21.43%
Calls in Favor 5 2.89% 5 2.89%
Calls Against 7 4.05% 13 7.51%
San Diego Padres Real % of
Team
% of
Chances
Typical % of
Team
% of
Chances
Ball Called Ball 60 68.18% 92.31% 55 62.50% 94.83%
Strike Called Strike 23 26.14% 100.00% 25 28.41% 83.33%
Strike Called Ball 0 0.00% 0.00% 5 5.68% 16.67%
Ball Called Strike 5 5.68% 7.69% 3 3.41% 5.17%
Borderline Pitches 31 24.49%
Borderline - Balls 10 50.00%
Borderline - Strikes 10 50.00%
Calls in Favor 7 4.05% 13 7.51%
Calls Against 5 2.89% 5 2.89%

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