Overall, a poor series for the umpires. The strikezones looked an awful lot like the strikezones of the late-'90s and early-'00s, very elongated across the plate and inconsistent on the top. The Orioles worked the Tzone-Rzone area very well, posting strike rates of 85.71%, 50.00%, and 100.00% (first "perfect" Tzone-Rzone game this season). By comparison, the Twins sat at 54.71%, 61.54%, and 44.44%. The Orioles were also consistently better on borderline strikes. This mimics the results of the first series, with the Orioles significantly better at getting close pitches called strikes than the Twins in wins and only slightly worse (if at all) in losses. Small sample size conclusion? Ryan Doumit and Joe Mauer aren't very good at receiving pitches and presenting them to the umpire.
On to the game-by-game strikezone analysis, as well as a discussion (with game images) of the difference between how Snyder and Wieters present a target to the pitcher.
Data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-w9dFaRvtmdENTeWZnczVZUERyc25Gd1NNOE0xV3c#gid=0
May 10, 2013: Orioles - 9, Twins - 6
Well, the umpires certainly played a role in this one, though it wasn't at the plate. Actually, kind of. The Orioles has two baserunners lost on terrible calls. The first was Dickerson beating out a swinging bunt to third, but being called out. The second was a beautiful drag bunt by Casilla, but the umpire called a foul ball saying it hit him in the box (it was never even close). :: sigh ::
As for the zone, it was classic. A little too classic. LHB were absolutely crushed on the outside corner, or more correctly, the 4" off the outside corner. RHB could be forgiven for having no idea what was happening; better swing, just to be safe. The 86.26% correct call rate was not particularly good and the total 25 calls favoring one team or the other tied for the 2nd highest this season.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 157 | 86.26% | 155 | 85.16% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 25 | 13.74% | 27 | 14.84% | ||
| Ball Called Ball | 114 | 62.64% | 85.71% | 93 | 51.10% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 43 | 23.63% | 87.76% | 62 | 34.07% | 69.66% |
| Strike Called Ball | 6 | 3.30% | 12.24% | 27 | 14.84% | 30.34% |
| Ball Called Strike | 19 | 10.44% | 14.29% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline - Balls | 25 | 13.74% | 51.02% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 24 | 13.19% | 48.98% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 56 | 62.22% | 90.32% | 46 | 51.11% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 27 | 30.00% | 96.43% | 33 | 36.67% | 75.00% |
| Strike Called Ball | 1 | 1.11% | 3.57% | 11 | 12.22% | 25.00% |
| Ball Called Strike | 6 | 6.67% | 9.68% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 46 | 27.54% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 9 | 42.86% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 12 | 57.14% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 11 | 6.04% | 16 | 8.79% | ||
| Calls Against | 14 | 7.69% | 11 | 6.04% | ||
| Minnesota Twins | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 58 | 63.04% | 81.69% | 47 | 51.09% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 16 | 17.39% | 76.19% | 29 | 31.52% | 64.44% |
| Strike Called Ball | 5 | 5.43% | 23.81% | 16 | 17.39% | 35.56% |
| Ball Called Strike | 13 | 14.13% | 18.31% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 51 | 26.29% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 16 | 57.14% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 12 | 42.86% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 14 | 7.69% | 11 | 6.04% | ||
| Calls Against | 11 | 6.04% | 16 | 8.79% |
May 11, 2013: Orioles - 5, Twins - 8
Not a good game for Gary Darling. His 82.17% correct call rate was the lowest seen this season for the Rzone and, not unexpectedly, his 28 calls favoring one team or another tied the season high. At least he was about even in his inconsistency.
That being said, the Orioles were somewhat hurt by a tightening strikezone for them as the game progressed. While Steve Johnson had a 50% borderline called strike rate, the team managed just a 37.50% rate for the game. Patton had a rough go of it, having 2 out of 3 borderline pitches called balls. While this is a small sample size, the high leverage situations relievers are typically subjected to makes every lost strike on a borderline pitch that much more important.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct | 129 | 82.17% | 134 | 85.35% | ||
| Incorrect | 28 | 17.83% | 23 | 14.65% | ||
| Ball Called Ball | 91 | 57.96% | 85.05% | 82 | 52.23% | 97.62% |
| Strike Called Strike | 38 | 24.20% | 76.00% | 52 | 33.12% | 71.23% |
| Strike Called Ball | 12 | 7.64% | 24.00% | 21 | 13.38% | 28.77% |
| Ball Called Strike | 16 | 10.19% | 14.95% | 2 | 1.27% | 2.38% |
| Borderline - Balls | 19 | 12.10% | 52.78% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 17 | 10.83% | 47.22% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 45 | 60.00% | 86.54% | 41 | 54.67% | 97.62% |
| Strike Called Strike | 17 | 22.67% | 73.91% | 23 | 30.67% | 69.70% |
| Strike Called Ball | 6 | 8.00% | 26.09% | 10 | 13.33% | 30.30% |
| Ball Called Strike | 7 | 9.33% | 13.46% | 1 | 1.33% | 2.38% |
| Borderline Pitches | 32 | 23.70% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 10 | 62.50% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 6 | 37.50% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 13 | 8.28% | 12 | 7.64% | ||
| Calls Against | 15 | 9.55% | 11 | 7.01% | ||
| Minnesota Twins | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 46 | 56.10% | 83.64% | 41 | 50.00% | 97.62% |
| Strike Called Strike | 21 | 25.61% | 77.78% | 29 | 35.37% | 72.50% |
| Strike Called Ball | 6 | 7.32% | 22.22% | 11 | 13.41% | 27.50% |
| Ball Called Strike | 9 | 10.98% | 16.36% | 1 | 1.22% | 2.38% |
| Borderline Pitches | 43 | 21.92% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 9 | 45.00% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 11 | 55.00% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 15 | 9.55% | 11 | 7.01% | ||
| Calls Against | 13 | 8.28% | 12 | 7.64% |
It's worth noting that the Orioles had 6 or 7 truly unforgivable calls go against them. There are 4 green triangles (strikes called balls) well within the Rzone and two red squares (balls called strikes) outside or on the extreme edge of the Tzone. The Twins, on the other hand, had just 2 green squares within the Rzone and no red triangles as egregious as what the Orioles were subjected to.
May 12, 2013: Orioles - 6, Twins - 0
On a non-strikezone note, if the Orioles lose Wei-Yin Chen to a strained oblique, things could start to look truly awful for the pitching staff. His 3.04 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, 139 ERA+, and 47.1 IP lead all starters this season. The Norfolk Express is already gassed up, but it hasn't been as effective in 2013 as it was in 2012.
13 borderline strikes to 4 borderline balls for Chris Snyder behind the plate. This weekend provided an excellent example of the difference between Matt Wieters and multiple other MLB catchers, including Chris Snyder. (Edit: In the previous two games that Snyder caught for the Orioles this season, his borderline strike rates were 61.11% with 11 strikes to 7 balls and 59.26% with 16 strikes to 11 balls.)
1. When setting up, Wieters does get into position (sliding left or right) well before the pitch is delivered. I don't know if this tips off batters or not, but I suspect it does help Orioles pitchers know where the target will be. Chris Snyder was also very good at this.
2. When positioning his glove for the target, Wieters often holds his glove closed, showing the pitcher the backside of the glove. This not only makes the glove appear smaller, but it also changes the color of the target. The backside of Wieters' glove is black, which blends with his black chestguard and shinguards. The inside of his glove is brown, providing some contrast. I honestly have no idea what effect the shape of the target or the color of the target has on the pitcher, but it's something to keep an eye on. On the other hand, Chris Snyder presented a large, open glove target to the pitcher on every single pitch on Sunday. Even in a game with a lower percentage of correct calls than what we've seen lately from umpires, Snyder had an excellent 76.47% borderline called strike rate. This will definitely be worth tracking as the season goes on.
Here, Chen has just finished getting the sign and is set. Snyder is presenting an open-glove target on the corner.
Here, we see Chen is already into his windup and Snyder is still presenting an open-glove target on the corner.
(All game images are from MLB.com and are the property of Major League Baseball.)
On a related note, one of the reasons why presenting a target to the pitcher all throughout his windup is important has to do with the precise timing and mechanics of throwing. Due to the time that it takes for the message to release the ball to be sent from the brain to the hand, the message is actually generated when the pitcher just starts moving his arm forward during the windup (very close to where Garcia is above). I suspect that if the pitcher is seeing an incorrectly located target at the time that the message to release is generated in the brain, it can throw off the split-second timing required to put the pitch where it needs to be. If the catcher is not presenting a target until the pitcher is releasing the baseball, it's too late. For a discussion of the timing of throwing a baseball, XKCD has the answer: http://what-if.xkcd.com/44/ .
3. Also affecting the borderline strike rate, I suspect, was Snyder's extremely steady reception of each pitch. Very little movement. A small, but noticeable delay before transitioning the ball to his throwing hand to return to the pitcher. I don't want to over-emphasize a single game, but I feel comfortable saying that Snyder had an excellent game behind the plate. Chen pitching helped, but the fact that the Orioles shutout a team that had previously scored 5, 6, 4, 6, and 5 runs against them provides some evidence for that conclusion.
| Umpire | Real | % of Total |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Total |
% of Chances |
| Correct Calls | 128 | 88.89% | 129 | 89.58% | ||
| Incorrect Calls | 16 | 11.11% | 15 | 10.42% | ||
| Ball Called Ball | 82 | 56.94% | 88.17% | 73 | 50.69% | 98.65% |
| Strike Called Strike | 46 | 31.94% | 90.20% | 56 | 38.89% | 80.00% |
| Strike Called Ball | 5 | 3.47% | 9.80% | 14 | 9.72% | 20.00% |
| Ball Called Strike | 11 | 7.64% | 11.83% | 1 | 0.69% | 1.35% |
| Borderline - Balls | 13 | 9.03% | 39.39% | |||
| Borderline - Strikes | 20 | 13.89% | 60.61% | |||
| Baltimore Orioles | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 41 | 55.41% | 85.42% | 37 | 50.00% | 97.37% |
| Strike Called Strike | 26 | 35.14% | 100.00% | 32 | 43.24% | 88.89% |
| Strike Called Ball | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4 | 5.41% | 11.11% |
| Ball Called Strike | 7 | 9.46% | 14.58% | 1 | 1.35% | 2.63% |
| Borderline Pitches | 47 | 33.57% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 4 | 23.53% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 13 | 76.47% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 12 | 8.33% | 11 | 7.64% | ||
| Calls Against | 4 | 2.78% | 4 | 2.78% | ||
| Minnesota Twins | Real | % of Team |
% of Chances |
Typical | % of Team |
% of Chances |
| Ball Called Ball | 41 | 58.57% | 91.11% | 36 | 51.43% | 100.00% |
| Strike Called Strike | 20 | 28.57% | 80.00% | 24 | 34.29% | 70.59% |
| Strike Called Ball | 5 | 7.14% | 20.00% | 10 | 14.29% | 29.41% |
| Ball Called Strike | 4 | 5.71% | 8.89% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borderline Pitches | 42 | 34.06% | ||||
| Borderline - Balls | 9 | 56.25% | ||||
| Borderline - Strikes | 7 | 43.75% | ||||
| Calls in Favor | 4 | 2.78% | 4 | 2.78% | ||
| Calls Against | 12 | 8.33% | 11 | 7.64% |
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