It is Tightening Up: 2012 AL Playoffs

The Orioles keep winning and defying the historical norm in terms of run based metrics.  The projected final totals has the Orioles only a single win behind Tampa along with Detroit and the Angels.  If you only look at the last 30 games...the projection puts them three back.  It will be an exciting month.

Here is the current playoff outlook as we finish up August.

Team Wins "Luck" Proj Final * p30 Proj TEX  77 0 96 West 97 NYY  75 -1 94 East 93  OAK  73 8 89 WC 90 CHW  72 9 87 Central 86  BAL  72 17 86 1 GB 87  TBR  71 4 87 WC 90  DET  69 -2 86 1 GB 90  LAA  69 -2 86 1 GB 85  SEA  64 6 77 9 GB 76  BOS  62 -7 78 8 GB 77  KCR  59 -1 74 12 GB 75  TOR  59 3 73 13 GB 69  CLE  55 3 67 19 GB 63  MIN  53 -4 66 20 GB 66

The Case for Joe Saunders

This column began as a thesis on how Joe Saunders might be helpful to the Orioles this year and what it would cost to acquire him.  That changed as the Orioles ended the speculation and agreed on a deal with the Diamondbacks.  Free Agent to be Joe Saunders and an undisclosed amount of cash come to the Orioles for Matt Lindstrom and a player to be named later.  There has been no information on the player to be named later other than it was mentioned that this individual is a not a "targeted" prospect from the lower level of the minors who will be determined after the season.  This means that there is a group of players the Diamondbacks will be allowed to select from that has at the moment been agreed upon.  Additionally, it is possible that the group of prospects for selection may change depending on the success of the Orioles.  This possibility would be similar to the Steve Trachsel for Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry deal in 2007.  The Cubs made the playoffs and that resulted in the Orioles also receiving Jake Renshaw.

What did the Orioles lose?

On a team with many weaknesses, the Orioles have something in excess: relief pitching.  The Orioles have relief in spades this year.  Matt Lindstrom has a 2.72 ERA.  When the season ended last year, that mark would have been beaten by only Jim Johnson.  This year, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton, Luis Ayala, and Pedro Strop all have better marks.  The Orioles also have decent arms in Jake Arrieta and whoever else falls out of the rotation.  Many of these arms are right handed like Lindstrom.  In terms of pure numbers and effectiveness, Lindstrom was neither special or unique on this team.

One thing the Orioles need?

The Orioles' starting pitching has been incredibly uneven this season. 

	W	L	ERA	IP	ERA+
Wei-Yin Chen*	12	7	3.87	151	108
Tommy Hunter	4	8	5.95	121	70
Jason Hammel	8	6	3.54	109.1	118
Jake Arrieta	3	9	6.13	101.1	68
Brian Matusz*	5	10	5.40	85	78
Miguel Gonzalez	5	3	3.66	66.1	115
Chris Tillman	6	2	3.71	51	114
Zach Britton*	3	1	5.59	37	75
Dana Eveland*	0	1	4.73	32.1	89
Steve Johnson	2	0	3.18	17	134

Wei-Yin Chen and Jason Hammel have kept the rotation afloat for much of the year.  Neither are having great seasons, but they are certain having very good ones.  Jason Hammel could have actually been a fringe Cy Young argument if he had not missed eight starts this year.  Beyond those two, the Orioles have seen horrific results from several pitchers (e.g., Zach Britton) and very good performances from several pitchers (e.g., Zach Britton).  The team faces an open question of how successful can this squad be with Chris Tillman, Steve Johnson and whoever else they use.  Combine that with a desire to lower the workloads for Miguel Gonzalez and Chen...that makes for a starting pitching deficit.  Joe Saunders may help fulfill some of that need.

Who is Joe Saunders?

Saunders is in his eighth season as a starting pitcher.  He has never made an appearance as anything other than a starting pitcher.

Age	Tm	ERA	G	IP	ERA+	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
24	LAA	7.71	2	9.1	57	2.9	3.9	3.9
25	LAA	4.71	13	70.2	96	0.8	3.7	6.5
26	LAA	4.44	18	107.1	102	0.9	2.9	5.8
27	LAA	3.41	31	198	131	1	2.4	4.7
28	LAA	4.6	31	186	95	1.4	3.1	4.9
29	TOT	4.47	33	203.1	92	1.1	2.8	5
30	ARI	3.69	33	212	109	1.2	2.8	4.6
31	ARI	4.22	21	130	102	1.2	2.1	6.2

What you can see above is that Saunders was very good one year and has consistently performed at a back end level for a first division team.  Here are a few more numbers for your perusal.

Age	Tm	bWAR	fWAR
24	LAA	-0.2	-0.2
25	LAA	0.5	1.3
26	LAA	1.2	1.8
27	LAA	4.4	2.8
28	LAA	0.3	1.1
29	TOT	-0.3	1.7
30	ARI	1.4	1
31	ARI	0.6	1.7

As a reminder, the basic difference between the two metrics is that bWAR credits the pitcher for batted ball quality while fWAR does not consider potential pitcher effects on batted ball quality.  I wrote about the two statistics in a post about last winter's Jeremy Guthrie - Jason Hammel deal.  So, yes, you can argue that Saunders is more of the same that the Orioles already have or that he may be a solid average pitcher.

Something has also been made of Saunders' poor record at home with the inflated offensive atmosphere in Arizona.  Below are a couple seasons from his time with the Angels and his last two years in Arizona.

	Angels
	Home	wOBA		Road	wOBA
2007	5.11	0.37		3.71	0.312
2008	4.27	0.322		2.55	0.289
	Dbacks
	Home	wOBA		Road	wOBA
2011	4.42	0.349		3.14	0.309
2012	5.8	0.371		2.92	0.288

As you can see...you could have made similar arguments about how Saunders would benefit pitching elsewhere.  2009 and 2010 showed rather even performance.  More so, the Angels home field is not a place where it is particularly easy for home runs to be hit.  It seems doubtful that the Orioles should expect him to be a low 3 era pitcher.

Additional Value as a Relief Pitcher?

Saunders has pitched in 285 games as a professional.  He has thrown in relief once.  It was 2005 when he was with the Salt Lake City Buzz.  Saunders value as a reliever is purely hypothetical as we have no indication whether he can actually pitch in relief.  The Orioles saw something similar with Dontrelle Willis this year.  He tried to throw in relief, met some hard times, and could not do it.  Some of that may have been mental and some of it may be physical damage to his arm.  That said, we do not know if Saunders is OK being in the pen.

The hope is that he can use his ability to shut down lefties as a starter to his advantage in the pen.

	Left			Right
	wOBA	FIP		wOBA	FIP
2006	0.237	2.43		0.327	4.49
2007	0.273	2.53		0.359	4.69
2008	0.294	3.56		0.309	4.60
2009	0.306	4.13		0.361	5.01
2010	0.310	3.93		0.358	4.80
2011	0.250	2.67		0.347	4.90
2012	0.208	1.65		0.361	5.01

If Saunders can handle the relief state of mind, he could prove to be a rather impressive force from the bullpen against lefties.  With expanded rosters in September, a larger bullpen would enable more frequent use of batter specific match ups.  With a smaller rotation in the playoffs, a similar situation could also be utilized.


Conclusion

The Orioles adding Joe Saunders to the mix while bring Jake Arrieta to the bullpen will give Buck better options to use at the Major League level.  This is certainly not a game changing trade.  Few deals in August are game changers.  However, the Orioles have been able to convert their abundance of relief talent into improving the talent available for starting pitching.  As long as the player to be named later is no one of great importance, this is a solid deal looking to go as deep as possible this year.

Playoff Update: Oriole Magicks (August 26, 2012)

And, so, yes, the Orioles continue to defy their peripherals.  According to their run differential, the Orioles have have 11 more games than they should have won.  At the moment, they join the 2009 Mariners (10), 2008 Angels (12), 2007 Diamondbacks (11), 2005 Diamondbacks (11), and the 2004 Yankees (12) as teams that have exceeded their expected win total by 10 or more wins.  In other words, it is an occasion that has happened 1.5% of the time in the 2000s.  One remarkable trait of all teams is that they did well in close games.

		W	L
2012	Orioles	23	6
2004	Yankees	24	16
2005	Dbacks	28	18
2007	Dbacks	32	20
2008	Angels	31	21
2009	Mariners	35	20

Close games do not fully explain their knacks for exceeding the run differential, but if you combine that with general deviation from the projected win totals...it makes sense that these events can occur.  It also makes sense that these events are likely not representative of any skills.  However, the data set is too small and the analysis is not incredibly in depth to make any solid conclusions.  Basically, the take home likely is that hopefully the ride continues this year and, come offseason, the team cannot rest on its laurels.

For this update, I have included "luck."  This metric can be defined as what our fWAR projection of wins compares with actual wins.  A positive number means the team is outperforming their projection.  As you can see, fWAR is wholly unimpressed with the Orioles.  Only the Indians have a lower fWAR than the Orioles.  This is quite remarkable.

As a reminder, the p30 projection considers the fWAR of the last 30 days.

Team	Wins	"Luck"	Proj Final	*	p30 Proj
TEX	75	0	97	West	97
NYY	73	-1	94	East	93
CHW	70	8	88	Central	88
TBR	70	4	88	WC	92
OAK	69	7	87	tWC	88
BAL	69	17	84	3 GB	86
DET	68	0	87	tWC	90
LAA	66	-3	85	2 GB	85
SEA	61	4	77	10 GB	79
BOS	60	-7	78	9 GB	77
KCR	56	-2	73	14 GB	74
TOR	56	2	71	16 GB	67
CLE	55	4	70	17 GB	64
MIN	51	-3	66	21 GB	67

One good bit of news in the past few days has been the Red Sox - Dodgers deal.  The Orioles have several games remaining against the Red Sox and they have become a weaker team by removing Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett.  In their place will be the continually underwhelming James Loney and whoever the Red Sox can get to be their fifth pitcher.  The more Aaron Cook and Felix Dubront are in the BoSox rotation the better.  Of course, this makes the Rays and Yankees schedule easier, but it helps the Orioles against the teams in the other divisions vying for the Wild Card.