08 August 2012

Just a Graph: Cumulative Camden Yards Attendance (2010-2012)

A follow up from this morning.  Around games 20 through 40 is where interleague play occurs.

Here is a 5 game moving average.

What we see here is that June was a remarkable improvement in terms of attendance.

Next is a graph showing the last three years' cumulative attendance.


John said...

Any idea what the average revenue is per attendee? It looks like they are on pace to surpass 2 million fans this year, and I'd imagine that they budgeted for about the same as the last two years. Those extra 200,000 fans should be worth a nice bump in revenue.

Jon Shepherd said...

Average fan in the stands brings in about $40 up front for the Orioles. Unsure how much goes to paying the bills.

They might be seeing an additional 10MM gross this year from ticket sales.

Bret said...

They are averaging 4K more per game than last year at the moment. With 10 Yankees/Red Sox plus pennant race let's conservatively estimate 5K more per game at year end. 5K*81=405,000. That is the worst case scenario in my mind.

But that is probably chump change compared to MASN. They are arguing about a 70 million dollar differential in how to value the rights fees with the Nats.

Bret said...

The debate was never whether AA or AAA is better if they played 162 times. The debate was whether GM and managers view AAA as a necessary jump for prospect development. Today is another indication they don't.

Machado is not going to OPS .560 unless he is struck by lightning. He is better than Betemit, the fanbase has been tortured more than William Wallace the last 15 years and you put your best team on the field. I don't see the downside at all.

You can add 40K plus to the attendance calculation tonight.

Bret said...

The choice isn't Andino versus Machado. My guess is Omar now sits against lefties including tonight and Andino plays 2nd. Against righties it is who is better? If it was Andino/Machado it would be no comparison because Machado has a .172 ISO this year while Andino is .087 career, and Machado walks more and strikes out less. Both Betemit and Andino are nice platoon/bench/fill in players. Neither should be an everyday starter on a decent team in the big leagues.

Machado is not going to strike out 27 percent of the time as Betemit does. His defense can't be any worse because that would be like saying I'm going lower than the Mariana Trench. And his ISO in AA is comparable to Betemit's plus he has walked more.

I realize it is a level jump but plate discipline and power and generally skills that don't vanish. He may struggle a bit more to make contact but if the alternative is striking out more than 1 out of every 4 at bats that is a risk I'm willing to take.

Jon Shepherd said...

The argument point I only participated in was your contention that AAA is not more competitive than AA. That was the only thing I discussed.

Second, baseline performance is much higher in MLB. It is not going to be surprising if that hampers Machado. He has met challenges before and succeeded eventually. I expect him to be highly challenged. I think he is a 650 ops guy right now. Would not be shocked if he is a 560 ops guy. It is not like he was dominating AA.

Expectations should be tempered. He should be a good player, but likely not right now. Baseball history is full of prospects who did not meet expectations. I do not see why he should be considered special.

Bret said...

In order for his OPS to be that low he is going to

A. Not walk
B. Strikeout much more than he is now.
C. Hit for no power.
D. Get very unlucky on BABIP.

Given that he has always shown good patience, solid contact, solid power I only see D as a real path to your prediction. Since D is uncontrollable I'll take my chances with a guy that puts the ball in play more often.

Two questions.

1. Do you agree O's should be putting best team on the field regardless of service time, future etc at this point in the season?

2. If yes to 1, do you really believe Machado is a downgrade on Betemit? What is he going to do worse? I went to a college full of ugly girls, when an average looking girl came in she looked like Miss America. We don't need Miss America, we just need competent.

Jon Shepherd said...

1. Yes
2. The question should be whether or not Manny is an upgrade. I don't think he is at this point. I am excited to find out.