19 August 2012

Who will make the playoffs? (August 19)

This series keeps chugging along with the Orioles slowly, but steadily, moving upwards even though they still project as having the fewest wins remaining in the season.  If you gauge the team by the full season, then they are below average.  If you gauge them by the last thirty games, then they are average.  However, they still seem to figure out how to win (ignoring July).

Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * p30 Proj
NYY  71 25 96 East 96
TEX  69 25 94 West 90
 TBR  66 21 87 WC 93
CHW  65 21 86 WC 85
 BAL  65 18 83 3 GB 85
 OAK  64 21 85 1 GB 86
 DET  64 23 87 Central 89
 LAA  62 22 84 2 GB 84
 BOS  59 21 80 6 GB 76
 SEA  57 18 75 11 GB 76
 TOR  56 18 74 12 GB 73
 CLE  54 18 72 14 GB 68
 KCR  53 20 73 13 GB 74
 MIN  50 19 69 17 GB 71


Philip Taggart said...

Um... July was only one game under .500 at 13-14. Not bad at all. The low water mark of the season was 4 games over .500, something Angels, Tigers, Athletics, Rays cannot say.

My first love is the Rangers(going to wednesday night's game!) but boy i'm enjoying this run. They just beat the Tigers, too...I dunno how they do it, but they sure are fun to watch.

If someone made a list of the most unlikely successful teams(defined as over .500, or performance above expectations, perhaps) over the last 50 yearsor so, I can't doubt the '12 Orioles would be high on the list..
really REALLY high.

The idea of them suddenly flopping down to only 18 wins, when they'd been at or above .500 all season is incredibly unlikely, about as unlikely as someone passing Trout for RoY.
Even if they went 20-21 in their remaining 41 games, they'd still finish at 86 wins, and in a diluted season, that could be enough for a WC.
Remember, the other teams have to play well, too, and at the moment, everyone is floundering except the Orioles and the Rays.
See you in October!

Jon Shepherd said...

Well, 13-14 is more in line with what you would expect with the run differential. That was the point. With that level of performance, a playoff berth would not be expected.

Certainly, it is interesting where the team has been and how it relates to where they will go. They appear to be doing things in a way that is highly unique. If they keep winning though...the run differential should decrease and the other peripheral metrics should reflect that.

Liam said...

A lot has been made of their poor run differential despite the winning record. Do you or any of the other writers at the depot have any theories explaining this anomaly? Or is it just that, a fluke, due to regress to the mean over the last 40 odd games?

Obviously the bullpen has helped them win close games, which show up less in the run differential. Our starters also seem to either pitch really well or very poorly, perhaps with less middle ground than other teams. Could this play a role?

Jon Shepherd said...

My best hypothesis (no theories here) is that perhaps the team is poor at being able to score multiple runs because they have a poor batting average and a poor walk rate. The majority of their runs score via home run, so it makes for moderate run production to be unlikely.

I really do not know. They are doing something in a context that frankly has never been done over a full season.