26 May 2017

Step-Up Time: Kevin Gausman Edition

Ubaldo Jimenez is the latest Orioles starter to be (rightly) ridiculed after yet another underwhelming outing. Chris Tillman wasn't very good either on Wednesday, allowing four runs in five innings of work, but at least he actually made it through five innings. Jimenez has only done that three times in eight starts. That's bad!

Kevin Gausman gets the ball tonight in Houston, and here's to hoping that he doesn't one-up Jimenez's awfulness. While Jimenez has been the worst O's starter, Gausman isn't that far behind. Let's take a quick look at their 2017 numbers so far:

Jimenez: 7.17 ERA, 6.71 FIP, 6.75 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 2.32 HR/9, -0.6 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR
Gausman: 6.65 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 6.85 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 1.52 HR/9, -0.6 bWAR, 0.1 fWAR

Jimenez has been downright awful and not unlucky on balls in play (.287 BABIP), while Gausman has been pretty bad, too -- what's with the lack of strikeouts? -- but unfortunate on balls in play (.367). Gausman got back on track somewhat with his last start against the Blue Jays. Despite allowing 10 hits (note that BABIP again), he made it through six innings -- no small feat for anyone in this rotation outside of Dylan Bundy -- while allowing two runs while striking out five and walking one. It wasn't pretty, but it was good enough. The Orioles aren't after style points; they just need more good enough outings.

There were some encouraging signs in that start. Gausman got the most whiffs per swing out of his splitter/changeup that he's gotten all season. Plus, his average four-seam fastball velocity reached 96 mph for the first time this season. He even topped a max speed of 99 mph with the pitch, which he hadn't done since the first start of the year.

Gausman believes that he's worked out the kinks, particularly with his fastball command issues. Now he'll get a chance to test himself against an Astros lineup that's been the second-best group in the American League. Gausman was supposed to be the one sure thing in a rotation full of question marks. This would be as good of a time as any to string a few good starts together.

9 comments:

Roger said...

Amen.

Anonymous said...

Kevin Jimenez, Ubaldo Gausman......

Anonymous said...

Roger that!!!

Matt Kremnitzer said...

I'm not sure who exactly keeps leaving these awful comments so often, but please at least be funny next time.

Anonymous said...

Manny Mendoza?!

Matt Kremnitzer said...

Nope

vilnius b. said...

I asked why Gausman was faring so poorly this year on Eno Sarris' chat on FanGraphs this past Thursday. I respect what Eno has to say---he does a lot of research on pitchers---and he said he couldn't understand why Gausman had ditched his curveball.
Looking at Brooks Baseball data, I have to ask the same question myself. His whiff rate last year with his CB ranged from 11.1 (July) to 16.88 (September). I can't remember what the average curveball whiff rate for major league pitchers is, but if memory serves me correctly it's somewhere around 12.
Most of last year, Gausman had an above average whiff rate with his curveball, even if he didn't throw all that often.
As Eno Sarris said: it's tough to succeed in the major leagues when you're a two pitch pitcher (FB, Splitter) and constantly tinkering with a third pitch. And Gausman hasn't thrown the curveball very much this year. Why is that? Does the pitch bother his arm or does it have something to do with the departure of Matt Wieters?
I know that Wieters was a lousy pitch framer (and that's probably why the Orioles let him walk), but it appears that he knew better how to work with Gausman.
Or is there another reason Gausman has given up on his curveball?

Jon Shepherd said...

My understanding was that while he got swinging strikes, he was not getting all that many swings. He had trouble controlling it.

vilnius b. said...

Thanks for explaining that.