20 August 2012

Just Some Graphs: Run Scoring and Earning

In a comment on the post before this one I put forth my current untested hypothesis on how the Orioles can win so many close games, but look so awful in games decided by more than a few runs.  Here it is:
The Orioles have a solid bullpen to go along with a feast or famine starting rotation and an offense that is atrocious at hitting themselves or walking themselves on base.  Therefore, in games where the score is close, the Orioles' solo or two run home runs help make the difference.  In games in which the other team get more of a lead, the Orioles simply cannot put enough men on base unless they begin to chase relievers.
That is it.  I do not know if it is correct.  Why I do know is that somehow the Orioles are doing something that no one has done before to the extent that they are doing it.  They are dominant in close games and positively atrocious in the others.  Remarkable.

Here is a graph for your amusement depicting runs scored or giving over the course of a single game as a frequency:


Here is a cumulative run scoring chart, adding from low scores to high scores:


I am not sure if that informs us of much.  However, you do see a shift where the Orioles tend to score two to five runs at a greater frequency than their opponents.  They have also given up four scores higher than any they have produced this season.  It may well be that this team is constructed to brilliantly split hairs.

19 August 2012

Who will make the playoffs? (August 19)

This series keeps chugging along with the Orioles slowly, but steadily, moving upwards even though they still project as having the fewest wins remaining in the season.  If you gauge the team by the full season, then they are below average.  If you gauge them by the last thirty games, then they are average.  However, they still seem to figure out how to win (ignoring July).

Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * p30 Proj
NYY  71 25 96 East 96
TEX  69 25 94 West 90
 TBR  66 21 87 WC 93
CHW  65 21 86 WC 85
 BAL  65 18 83 3 GB 85
 OAK  64 21 85 1 GB 86
 DET  64 23 87 Central 89
 LAA  62 22 84 2 GB 84
 BOS  59 21 80 6 GB 76
 SEA  57 18 75 11 GB 76
 TOR  56 18 74 12 GB 73
 CLE  54 18 72 14 GB 68
 KCR  53 20 73 13 GB 74
 MIN  50 19 69 17 GB 71