In a comment on the post before this one I put forth my current untested hypothesis on how the Orioles can win so many close games, but look so awful in games decided by more than a few runs. Here it is:
The Orioles have a solid bullpen to go along with a feast or famine starting rotation and an offense that is atrocious at hitting themselves or walking themselves on base. Therefore, in games where the score is close, the Orioles' solo or two run home runs help make the difference. In games in which the other team get more of a lead, the Orioles simply cannot put enough men on base unless they begin to chase relievers.
That is it. I do not know if it is correct. Why I do know is that somehow the Orioles are doing something that no one has done before to the extent that they are doing it. They are dominant in close games and positively atrocious in the others. Remarkable.
Here is a graph for your amusement depicting runs scored or giving over the course of a single game as a frequency:
Here is a cumulative run scoring chart, adding from low scores to high scores:
I am not sure if that informs us of much. However, you do see a shift where the Orioles tend to score two to five runs at a greater frequency than their opponents. They have also given up four scores higher than any they have produced this season. It may well be that this team is constructed to brilliantly split hairs.
20 August 2012
19 August 2012
Posted by Jon Shepherd at 12:01
This series keeps chugging along with the Orioles slowly, but steadily, moving upwards even though they still project as having the fewest wins remaining in the season. If you gauge the team by the full season, then they are below average. If you gauge them by the last thirty games, then they are average. However, they still seem to figure out how to win (ignoring July).
Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * p30 Proj NYY 71 25 96 East 96 TEX 69 25 94 West 90 TBR 66 21 87 WC 93 CHW 65 21 86 WC 85 BAL 65 18 83 3 GB 85 OAK 64 21 85 1 GB 86 DET 64 23 87 Central 89 LAA 62 22 84 2 GB 84 BOS 59 21 80 6 GB 76 SEA 57 18 75 11 GB 76 TOR 56 18 74 12 GB 73 CLE 54 18 72 14 GB 68 KCR 53 20 73 13 GB 74 MIN 50 19 69 17 GB 71