Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * TEX 65 31 96 East NYY 64 31 95 West CHW 60 26 86 WC2 OAK 60 25 85 1 GB DET 60 27 87 Central BAL 60 21 81 5 GB TBR 58 25 83 3 GB LAA 59 28 87 WC1 BOS 55 26 81 5 GB TOR 53 24 77 9 GB CLE 51 22 73 13 GB SEA 51 22 73 13 GB MIN 49 23 72 14 GB KCR 47 24 71 16 GB
The Orioles have improved themselves by three wins since last time.
Let's hope for that upward trend.
4 comments:
I am a bit new to these statistical tools, but I understand the basic point of what you are doing. This tool seems to say that the Orioles will be the worst team in the American League over the rest of the season (eg. the least wins). Can you break down briefly why that is? Thanks.
They have the worst offensive fWAR in baseball and a slightly below average stable of pitchers. The projection is using descriptive statistics, so an assumption is that their performance will be similar in gross performance as what has already happened and that projected performance will be context neutral.
This means the linear 'luck' they have had so far is not included here.
And to jump ahead in this conversation to its usual destination, if the Orioles were to perform better in the last third of the season than they have up to this point, the system would show their projected wins increasing along the way (which, I believe, is what happened last week?).
Jon, let me know if I butchered that -- math is hard for me.
Yes. The more the Orioles win above expected levels the higher the projected totals will be. Additionally, if the performance is better, the predicted performance will increase.
Post a Comment