04 April 2013

Science of Baseball: Johan Santana and Anterior Capsule Surgery

by Stuart Wallace


With news of Johan Santana re-injuring the previously repaired anterior capsule of his pitching shoulder and yesterday's successful second surgery, comes an upswell in the curiosity of the injury, what it entails, and what makes it different than some of the more common shoulder injuries befalling players, such as rotator cuff tears and impingements. More commonly seen in traumatic events such as skiing accidents, anterior tears of the shoulder capsule are becoming increasingly diagnosed in baseball as a result of the subacute, microscopic tears of the shoulder capsule that can be sustained with the repetitive, over the head motions native to the game. In spite of the recent advances in orthopedic medicine and imaging technologies, an anterior capsule tear remains indirect and inexact in its diagnosis as a baseball specific injury.


ANATOMY OF THE SHOULDER CAPSULE

Before we begin, for those who would like a primer on the anatomy of the shoulder as it applies to baseball, this article from Baseball Prospectus is a great resource and will provide a firm knowledge base of the relevant shoulder anatomy that will be discussed here.

Briefly, the capsule of the shoulder is a fibrous lining that encompasses the glenohumeral joint and provides additional restraint and stabilization of the joint, keeping the head of the humerus in contact with the glenoid fossa, while also allowing for the wide range of motion allowed by the shoulder joint. It also lends additional support of the glenohumeral joint from the negative pressure environment within the capsule. It attaches laterally to the anatomical neck of the humerus, medially to the glenoid fossa, and superiorly with the attachment of the long head of the biceps, near the root of the coracoid process. The capsule is thickest superiorly and inferiorly and at its thinnest anteriorly; with adduction of the arm, the capsule is loose and lax anteriorly and inferiorly and taut superiorly. 


Illustration courtesy of www.bartleby.com

The capsule is reinforced by a handful of intrinsic ligaments, which themselves are thickenings of the capsule. The anterior portion of the capsule are reinforced by 3 glenohumeral ligaments – the superior, middle, and inferior – which run from supraglenoid tubercle of the scapula to the lesser tubercle and the anatomical neck of the humerus, creating a Z pattern along the capsule. Additionally, the transverse humeral ligament passes from the greater and lesser tubercles of the humerus and provides additional support in keeping the tendon of the long head of the biceps in the bicipital groove, while the coracohumeral ligament strengthens the superior portion of the capsule, and assists in supporting the weight of the arm against gravity at rest and limits inferior and posterior translation of the head of the humerus. The muscles of the rotator cuff reinforce the capsule superiorly, anteriorly, and posteriorly.

 
Lateral cutaway of the capsule. Courtesy of www.seattleclouds.com


INJURY MECHANISMS

Many of the findings on the mechanism of injury leading to anterior capsule tears are similar to those seen with rotator cuff tears. Most commonly, the shoulder capsule is stretched or torn by violent injury such as dislocation or a sudden powerful subluxation. In baseball, the injury more commonly arises from repetitive micro injuries produced from the abduction and external rotation of the shoulder required to perform over the head movements. With abduction, the thinner and weaker anterior capsule  is subjected to multiple iterations of being pulled taut, creating an environment for microscopic tears and stretching of the fibrous capsule to be suffered. With the tear, the normally negative pressure environment within the capsule is lost, thereby reducing stability of the joint, allowing for anterior displacement of the humeral head, and endangering the health of nearby anatomy, in particular, the rotator cuff muscles, as well as the intrinsic ligaments of the capsule.
SYMPTOMS AND DIAGNOSIS OF A CAPSULE TEAR

Differential diagnoses that can cause symptoms similar to a capsule tear are plentiful, and include more  typically seen injuries such as SLAP tears, rotator cuff tears, bursitis, and impingement. Specific to the capsule, a clinician must also rule out adhesive capsulitis, commonly known as 'frozen shoulder', as a cause of the pain.

Much like a rotator cuff tear, the player will complain of pain during throwing, in particular the load and deceleration phases of throwing. This in turn can develop into palpatory tenderness of the shoulder around the insertions of the rotator cuff tendons, as well as the bony landmarks of the glenohumeral joint upon physical examination. Musculoskeletal examinations, including the load and shift test and the apprehension and relocation test can be performed to confirm anterior instability. Magnetic resonance imaging is useful in demonstrating the presence, location, and severity of the capsule tear, usually with the administration of gadolinium contrast necessary.

NON OPERATIVE TREATMENT

Non-surgical approaches to treating capsule tears are predominantly not successful, and demonstrate a high rate of occurrence of re-injury. After a period of rest and the initial management of pain and inflammation has been successful, non-operative methods of treatment focus on the restoration normal range of motion, strength, and mechanics, accomplished through standard physical therapy and baseball specific throwing programs once the player is pain free.

SURGICAL TREATMENT

No matter what surgical technique is used eventually used for a given player, the goal of surgery is to regain stability of the glenohumeral joint through re-establishing the proper amount of tension to the capsule and the restoration of the labrum to its attachment site, should it be torn. While arthroscopic approaches are typically recommended in athletes due to the reduced amount of recovery time and post operative compromises of shoulder range of motion, open arthrotomies are commonly performed with capsule tears, especially when the tear is adjacent to the glenoid cavity versus the humeral head.

To start, the patient is positioned in either the beach chair or lateral decubitus position after anesthesia and intubation have been performed. An exam is performed while the patient is under anesthesia, and is used to assess the degree of joint laxity and confirm preoperative findings and diagnoses. From here, there are slight deviations as to how the surgeon proceeds, depending on whether the repair is open or arthroscopic. In order to expose the capsule in an open procedure – a capsular shift - a number of anatomical elements are reflected away from the surgical site, including the cephalic vein, the deltoid muscle, short flexor tendons, and the subscapularis muscle, which is detached. With the capsule visualized, it is then incised through the tear, creating two flaps, an inferior and superior flap. The rim of the glenoid cavity is then abraded until bleeding to promote healing, and holes are drilled in to the glenoid rim. From here, sutures are placed through these holes and the capsule tissue is sutured to the glenoid rim, with the inferior flap advanced superiorly and the superior flap advanced inferiorly, thereby greatly reducing capsular volume. This procedure not only minimizes laxity of the tissue, but also strengthens the already thin and fragile anterior portions of the capsule by increasing the thickness of the tissue through doubling over the capsule tissue. Multiple sutures can be used to assist in fine tuning the amount and direction of the shift, depending on the severity and location of the tear. Should there be additional pathology with any associated adjacent anatomy, such a a labrum tear, repair of these structures would be performed before the capsular plication and shift is sutured shut. The concepts are similar in an arthroscopic capsular plication technique, with minimal insults to surrounding anatomy, due to smaller incision and surgical sites afforded by arthroscopic technology. With plication, the capsule tear is not extended as it is with an open procedure, and is simply sewn upon itself to the surrounding capsular tissue, again minimizing iatrogenic insults to the anatomy. Before closing the site, passive motion is performed to ensure at least 90 degrees of abduction and 45 degrees of external rotation of the glenohumeral joint are possible.





POST OPERATIVE REHABILITATION

Rehabilitation approaches differ slightly depending on the surgical approach used, but are very similar to those seen with rotator cuff repairs. A thorough and detailed description of the rehabilitation process can be found here. Briefly, range of motion is severely limited for first four weeks following surgery, with only basic daily activities and waist level routines allowed. No over the head movements are permitted for six weeks, and the shoulder is protected through shoulder immobilization and slinging at this time to promote uninterrupted recovery and repair. Hand and elbow exercises to promote full range of motion of these wrist and elbow joints are performed at this stage in the rehabilitation, with some shoulder exercise performed after week 2 of this stage, with everything performed as pain allows, against gravity, and with shoulder rotation kept under 90 degrees. After six weeks, strengthening exercises are started, with slinging and immobilization of the shoulder discontinued. As rehabilitation progresses, strengthening exercises are gradually increased, range of motion exercises are continued, and isokinetic and tubing exercises are introduced around three months post-operation. Assessment of baseball specific function will begin around 3-6 months postoperatively, with throwing programs discussed after about nine months of rehabilitation. With open surgical approaches, this may not happen until later, closer to a year postoperatively. Given the rarity of the anterior capsule repair within baseball circles, these guidelines are still being revised to optimize recovery specific to the procedure.

SUMMARY

There is much to still be learned about the ideal surgical and rehabilitation techniques for an anterior capsule tear in the baseball player. With less than ten players having had confirmed procedures performed for a tear, the verdict is still out as to which methods will provide the ideal mix of total recovery with minimal chance of re-injury, combined with the least amount of postoperative pain and rehabilitation time specific to baseball activities. As imaging techniques improve and awareness of capsule tears within the baseball community increase, improvements will be made not only in the management of tears, but in the prevention of this career threatening injury.

03 April 2013

Offense Picks Up Hammel, Puts Up Runs on Price, McGee

I'm not going to be writing regular game recap posts, but I did notice at least one interesting thing about the Orioles' 7-4 opening day win over the Rays:
  • Jason Hammel (6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 K, 1 BB) was fine in this game, but the offense, primarily in a five-run seventh inning, was the main contributor in the win. The O's collected 13 hits and four walks, with 11 of those hits and three of the walks coming against two very talented lefties: David Price (2.56 ERA in 2012) and Jake McGee (1.95 ERA in 2012). Last season, the O's only had seven such games:
Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO
1 2012-09-17 BAL SEA W 10-4 46 42 10 15 3 0 2 10 4 0 6
2 2012-04-16 BAL CHW W 10-4 51 46 10 15 3 0 4 10 5 0 15
3 2012-09-22 BAL BOS W 9-6 55 50 9 15 6 1 2 9 5 1 11
4 2012-09-16 BAL OAK W 9-5 49 39 9 13 4 0 2 9 9 1 7
5 2012-07-27 BAL OAK L 9-14 46 40 9 15 2 0 2 9 5 0 13
6 2012-05-06 BAL BOS W 9-6 69 59 9 15 4 0 4 9 10 0 15
7 2012-07-14 BAL DET W 8-6 59 47 8 14 4 0 3 8 9 2 8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/3/2013.
  • The Orioles scored at least eight runs in all seven of those games last season, though they only scored seven runs yesterday (while stranding eight baserunners). Oddly enough, the O's also managed to strand at least nine runners in all seven of those 2012 games.
  • In those seven 2012 games, though, four of them were extra-inning games: the April 16 win over the White Sox (10 innings), the crazy, Chris Davis-pitched win on May 6 against the Red Sox (17 innings), the July 14 win over the Tigers (13 innings), and another win over the Red Sox on September 22 (12 innings). So the Orioles really only accomplished the (at least) 13-hit, four-walk effort in only three nine-inning games last season -- all against AL West teams (twice vs. the A's and once vs. the Mariners).
  • A couple other quick notes: Steve Pearce was the only O's batter without a hit or a walk. And Nick Markakis (single) and J.J. Hardy (double) were the only batters to reach base only once.

02 April 2013

The Optimist / Pessimist Guide to the 2013 Season: Pitchers

The Optimist / Pessimist Guide to the 2013 Season: Pitchers

Yesterday, we ran through the position players with one number to expect something more from a player and another to expect less.  As mentioned, the goal was not to conclusively prove one position or another.  Rather, it is merely a crib sheet of a simple number or two to remember as you continue a conversation while reaching for a third beer.
This is the second of two articles.  This one will focus on the position players.
Starting Rotation
Jason Hammel (ZIPS; 8.0 K/9; 3.0 BB/9; 3.59 FIP; 2.5 fWAR)
Optimist: 2.  Two seams have been a game changer.  His sinking fastball has made him into a strike out and ground ball machine.  An ace quality year is not out of the picture.
Pessimist: 118 IP.  It probably is just a coincidence, but he added on a new pitch, changed his delivery slightly, and then wound up having a knee problem and able to only throw 118 IP.
Wei-Yin Chen (ZIPS; 4.9 K/9; 1.9 B/9; 4.44 FIP; 1.3 fWAR)
Optimist: 7.2 K/9.  ZIPS is not using his numbers in Japan well.  Chen struck out a lot of batters and improve as he gets used to the long season in the States.
Pessimist: 37.1% GB.  Camden Yards is kind to home runs and Chen leaves a lot of balls in the air.  He likely won’t get any worse with them than last year, but there really is not a lot of ways he can improve.
Miguel Gonzalez (ZIPS; 6.6 k/9; 3.6 BB/9; 4.59 FIP; 0.3 fWAR)
Optimist: 2012.  Miguel Gonzalez was found in Mexico as a new pitcher.  Nothing he does is done especially well, but he has excellent command and control.
Pessimist: 82.6% runners left on base.  Gonzalez pitched himself out of many a tight spot.  Pitchers tend not to continually leave so many runners on base, so that number should regress to the mean and more baserunners will score.
Jake Arrieta (ZIPS; 7.1 K/9; 4.2 BB/9; 4.81 FIP; 0.5 fWAR)
Optimist: 4.05 FIP.  Jake was not as bad as his 6.20 ERA made him out to be.  For most pitchers, a single season of FIP is far more predictive for future performance than ERA.
Pessimist: 6.20 ERA. Read this article.  The article was originally here on BSL, but no longer appears to be in the directory.
Chris Tillman (ZIPS; 6.9 K/9; 3.0 BB/9; 4.44 FIP; 1.3 fWAR)
Optimist: 92.4 mph.  Tillman’s fastball is back.  He saw a bump in his average fastball velocity of about 3 mph from his struggles of the past two year.  For a righty with his command, he desperately needs those 3 mph.  In fact, they can make him a mid to front end starter.
Pessimist: -0.2 mph.  On average, that is how much Tillman’s velocity decreased with each start.  If you remember, he was blazing an average of 95 mph in his first start last year.  He ended at 92.4 mph.
Bullpen
T.J. McFarland (ZIPS; 4.4 K/9; 3.9 BB/9; 5.19 FIP; 0.1 fWAR)
Optimist: 8.8 K/9 against AAA lefties.  McFarland was the International League version of Joe Saunders.  He simply killed lefties when they came up to bat.
Pessimist: 1.87 FIP.  His FIP against right handers was 1.87 higher than against left handers.  McFarland simply will not be able to face MLB quality right handed hitters.
Brian Matusz (ZIPS; 6.7 K/9; 3.8 BB/9; 4.97 FIP; -0.1 fWAR)
Optimist: 1.89 FIP.  When Matusz came back in the second half of the year, he returned as a reliever and he was simply lights out.  He saw a slight bump in velocity and was able to face a higher percentage of left handed batters.
Pessimist: .167 BABIP.  As a reliever, hitters could not put their ball in play in any meaningful way.  However, a .167 BABIP is not something you see from any pitcher over any significant period of time.  We should expect that to regress to the mean.
Troy Patton (ZIPS; 8.2 K/9; 2.3 BB/9; 3.51 FIP; 0.5 fWAR)
Optimist: 50.3% GB rate.  Restrict Patton to a couple innings and shield him from right handed batters a little bit and you have a solid ground ball inducing, strikeout machine.  He may not do what he did last year, but he probably won’t be too far off.
Pessimist: 84.6% LOB.  Again, it is difficult for a pitcher to leave such a high number of base runners on base.  That number should fall about 10% and add about a run or so onto his ERA.
Darren O’Day (ZIPS; 8.8 K/9; 2.2 BB/9; 3.69 FIP; 0.4 fWAR)
Optimist: 80.8% career left on base.  An 80+% for left on base is rare.  However, O’Day consistently produces at that left and holds the highest LOB% over the past five years (at least 240 IP).
Pessimist: -.029 wOBA.  Lefties hit off him better than righties.  However, that is pretty light criticism.  A .294 wOBA is Jeff Franceour.
Tommy Hunter (ZIPS; 5.1 K/9; 2.1 BB/9; 5.12 FIP; -0.3 fWAR)
Optimist: 96 mph.  Shifted off of the starting rotation, Hunter found the velocity he has been missing since he was an amateur.  The 5+ bump looks real and is devastating.  A rare case where as a reliever, he has far more value
Pessimist: 12.2 IP.  So he found his velocity in 12.2 IP with a deep expanded roster bullpen.  How well will he keep that velocity when asked on several occasions to pitch back-to-back nights?
Pedro Strop (ZIPS: 8.2 K/9; 4.8 BB/9; 4.03 FIP; 0.2 fWAR)
Optimist: 64.3% GB. Yeah, so he walks guys.  His ability to induce groundballs helps mitigate his wildness.  He also was hitting his mark well in the World Baseball Classic for the tourney winners, Dominican Republic.
Pessimist: 3.9 P/PA.  That is not a bad number.  It is only slightly high, but he is a pitcher that is depended on a great deal.  He may be more susceptible to injury with his high effort mechanics and his tendency to slightly run up his pitch count.
Luis Ayala (ZIPS; 6.1 K/9; 2.3 BB/9; 4.11 FIP; 0.1 fWAR)
Optimist: 17.4% of his pitches are cut fastballs.  Ayala turned himself into a new kind of pitcher with the Yankees when he begin throwing a cut fastball.
Pessimist: 44% of inherited baserunners scored in 2012.  Although only 80% of his baserunners scored last year, Ayala showed a horrible ability to prevent people already on base from scoring.
Jim Johnson (ZIPS; 5.8 K/9; 2.3 BB/9; 3.87 FIP; 0.3 fWAR)
Optimist: 59% of his pitches for two seamers.  Johnson has become a relatively unimpressively dominant reliever once he committed to the two seamer.  He induces >60% grounders because of it and it makes up for his low strikeout rates.
Pessimist: 2.Two closers since 1993 has been effective (> 40 saves) with a strikeout rate lower than Jim Johnson’s (5.4 K/9): Jose Mesa (2004, Pittsburgh; 4.8 K/9) and Danny Graves (2004; Cincinnati; 5.3 K/9).  How does that sound?

Anyway…have fun, enjoy the game, be responsible.

Looking at Lineup Construction and the Move to Bat Machado Second

I tend to focus on batting lineups a little too much when something seems off. And I wouldn't say that batting Manny Machado second is necessarily a bad decision, but I was legitimately surprised when the opening day lineup was announced yesterday. Maybe I simply dismissed that move as an unrealistic option. For anyone who missed it, the O's will be sending out the following lineup against lefty David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays today:

Nick Markakis, RF
Manny Machado, 3B
Adam Jones, CF
Matt Wieters, C
Chris Davis, 1B
J.J. Hardy, SS
Nolan Reimold, LF
Steve Pearce, DH
Brian Roberts, 2B

A few notes on the lineup:

1) I'm glad to see Markakis leading off. He's the best on this team at getting on base, and he should be batting as many times as possible.

2) I'm also a fan of Roberts in the ninth slot. Sure, he used to bat leadoff and was very good at it, but until he can prove himself again, there's nothing wrong with him hitting last. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see how he plays and it's hard not to root for him to both stay healthy and contribute.

3) Buck Showalter smartly moved Hardy down the lineup. Hardy's not adept at reaching base (career .314 OBP), so he certainly shouldn't bat second like he did all of last season. It would be helpful if his power returned, though.

As hinted at above, the unexpected part of the lineup is Machado batting second and Reimold batting seventh. One reason I can think of for the decision is this:

Machado vs. LHP: 53 PA, .344 wOBA
Reimold vs. LHP: 321 PA, .339 wOBA

Sample size is an issue, but their numbers aren't that different, anyway. Then again, Hardy has a career .351 wOBA against lefties and he'll be batting sixth, so the split stats explanation might be inconsequential. Machado being the everyday third baseman also may factor in, though Reimold should be in the lineup as much as possible as well, either in left field or as the designated hitter.

The Orioles are expecting Machado to eventually be a better hitter than Reimold, but I'm just not sure that will happen this season. Reimold has already demonstrated the ability to get on base more often and hit for a bit more power, and he's probably the team's fastest runner (at least down the first base line). But he just hasn't been able to stay on the field, so I wonder how much Showalter actually trusts him. The Orioles have also been steadfast in challenging their young stars whether in the minors or majors the last couple years, so maybe this is just another case of seeing what a young and promising player can handle.

It's important to note that while lineup concerns can be fun to complain about, they aren't THAT significant. Per Baseball Musings' lineup tool, the O's opening day lineup is projected to score 4.795 runs per game. The best two lineups offered for these nine players (Markakis-Reimold-Wieters-Davis-Jones-Machado-Hardy-Pearce-Roberts and Markakis-Jones-Wieters-Davis-Reimold-Machado-Hardy-Pearce-Roberts) are projected to score 4.865 runs per game. So, yeah, not a big difference -- maybe worth one win over a full season, but that's assuming Showalter sticks to the same lineup and never adjusts, which won't happen.

And before getting too upset, let's also note that 1) it's the first game of the season, and 2) Showalter will deploy a different lineup against right-handed pitchers. Nate McLouth will most likely be in the lineup for most of those match-ups, as will Wilson Betemit when he comes off the disabled list. (I'm intrigued to see where McLouth bats in the lineup.) It'll probably take Showalter some time to find the lineups he likes the most, and I'd still be surprised to see Machado batting second every day. Then again, I didn't think Machado would handle his initial debut as well as he did, and it's possible that he starts the season out well and is comfortable batting behind Markakis for the entire season. Maybe Machado has a fantastic second season and keeps hitting for power while improving his getting-on-base skills.

That's the fun part, after all. We don't know what's going to happen.

01 April 2013

The Optimist / Pessimist Guide to the 2013 Season: Position Players

The Optimist / Pessimist Guide to the 2013 Season: Position Players

There are often two keys to winning an argument: loudness of voice and having the appearance of have some solid evidence behind your point of view.  The point of this post is to equip you with the bare minimum you need to win a battle of words on any player on the team’s opening day roster. while you drink away at one of the local watering holes around Camden Yards.  Alas, if you running into someone with two pieces of evidence then I have no promises.
This is the first of two articles.  This one will focus on the position players.
Catchers
Matt Wieters (ZIPS – 256/330/433; .329 wOBA; 7.0 UZR; 4.5 fWAR)
Optimist: Age 27.  This is the age year where players, as a population, deliver their best offensive season.  Catchers tend to see their batting mature slightly later, so this may be the year Wieters breaks out with the bat to go along with his elite defense.
Pessimist: .262 BA.  Stats guys who do not understand stats will tell you that batting average means nothing, but it does.  The issue with it is that it fluctuates a great deal.  Wieters best season was two years ago with a .262 BA and it appears flatlined at best.  He is not a complete masher and his walks are around league average.  He simply does not connect with enough pitches successfully to be an effective middle of the order hitter.  He is a 7 or 8 hitter in a good lineup.
Taylor Teagarden (ZIPS; 191/226/316; .240 wOBA; -2.0 UZR; 0.1 fWAR)
Optimist: .152 ISO.  Teagarden carries around a good deal of power for a catcher.  If he is able to move his batting average above the Mendoza Line (.215 BA), then he is going to be a valuable backup catcher who could start in a pinch.
Pessimist: .215 BA.  Again…batting average can matter.  Teagarden’s career batting average is .211, below the Mendoza Line.
Infield
Chris Davis (ZIPS; 252/308/450; .323 wOBA; -3.0 UZR; 0.9 fWAR)
Optimist: 6 of 33.  Only 6 of Davis’ home runs barely cleared the fence.  Davis’ power is real and he does not need to walk much or hit much to be league average.
Pessimist: -2.  That is the cumulative fWAR Davis earned from 2009 through 2011.  Is last season’s performance really enough to outweigh his horrible three years preceding?
Brian Roberts (ZIPS; 244/309/363; .294 wOBA; -3.0 UZR; 0.2 fWAR)
Optimist: 63 plate appearances.  Brian Roberts has accumulated more spring training appearances than any other Oriole.  Given his concussion and other injury issues over the last three seasons, this alone is a great accomplishment.
Pessimist: 2009.  This was the last year Roberts was a meaningful MLB player.  Concussions are difficult medical issue and we will all be worried anytime he gets turned up while manning second.
Manny Machado (ZIPS; 252/311/315; .315 wOBA; 4.0 UZR; 2.7 fWAR)
Optimist: 1.3 fWAR in 55 games.  Over a full season, those numbers project Machado as a fringe All Star player as a 19 year old.  Sky is the limit.
Pessimist: 0.5.  That is how much of his fWAR was due to fielding.  51 games of fielding means little.  Machado is a good 3B, but he is not the best thing since Matt Wieters with the glove.  He’ll probably be a solid average player, but lets not get carried away.
J.J. Hardy (ZIPS; 258/304/424; .313 wOBA; 9.0 UZR; 3.5 fWAR)
Optimist: 52 home runs.  After spending a couple years in the wilderness, Hardy found his power stroke again over his past two years in Baltimore and is the most feared SS power bat in the AL.  Plus, with his glove, any hitting at all is just gravy.
Pessimist: 141 games.  From 2009 through 2011, Hardy missed an average of 47 games a year.  Last year, he missed 4.  Did he really set a new level for health?  If not, welcome Ryan Flaherty to the daily lineup at third base with Machado shifting to short.
Alexi Casilla (ZIPS; 250/304/347; .285 wOBA; -3.0 UZR; 0.3 fWAR)
Optimist: 13.1 BsR.  Over three seasons worth of plate appearances, Casilla has been worth a little over a win on the basepaths.  Even if he adds nothing else, his versatility in the field and his base running gives the Orioles options late in the game.
Pessimist: $25,000.  If I remember correctly, that is the cost of making a waiver claim.  Rarely do you get a useful player with 478 games with a club.  Most front offices will notice players who profile as average or better players.  What do the Orioles know that the Twins do not?
Ryan Flaherty (ZIPS; 232/285/372; .286 wOBA; 0.0 UZR; -0.1)
Optimist: .330 wOBA.  In the second half of the year, Flaherty showed that he has grown accustomed to the game.  He delivered an above average wOBA.  That is a solid way to end the season.
Pessimist: .231 wOBA.  In the first half, his wOBA was 90 points below average.  Add to that his Rule 5 status.  Again, good regimes (like Theo Epstein’s Cubs) typically do not let good players get away for free.
Steve Pearce (Oliver; 260/341/448; .340 wOBA; 0.1 UZR; 1.3 fWAR)
Optimist: 7.  Home runs hit in spring training.  He is on a roll.
Pessimist: 10.  Home runs Jake Fox hit in spring training back in 2011.  Home runs in spring training?  Don’t give me that weak sauce.
Outfield
Nate McLouth (ZIPS; 231/318/379; .307 wOBA; -3.0 UZR; 1.2 fWAR)
Optimist: .338 wOBA.  McLouth’s 55 game stint was in line with his career average wOBA of .331.  McLouth did nothing that he did not do before.  Why should we not expect this level of performance going forward?
Pessimist: -1.9 fWAR.  McLouth accumulated this level of performance in two and a half injury plagued and ineffective years for the Braves and Pirates.  Are 55 games at his career average really enough to erase two and a half years of poor performance?
Adam Jones (ZIPS; 277/326/474; .343 wOBA; -4.0 UZR; 3.6 fWAR)
Optimist: -8 runs.  This was how many runs that UZR appeared off when measuring Jones in the outfield. If you believe in offensive metrics and gold gloves then consider Adam Jones as a top 5 player in the American League.
Pessimist: -1 runs.  Jones’ rARM in 2012 was the first year registered below 5 runs.  His defensive game primarily runs around his arm.  Good outfield arms tend to break out early and then fade away.  With each year, Jones inches closer to belonging in LF.  Maybe he is already there.  You know, Raffy got a gold glove once for being at 1B for only 27 games or so.
Nick Markakis (ZIPS; 281/350/428; .335 wOBA; -4.0 UZR; 2.0 fWAR)
Optimist: .174 ISO.  Markakis’ power increased about 40% from his past two years.  At that level, he is an All Star player over a full season, assuming defensive metrics are a mess in Camden Yards.
Pessimist: 2.  Markakis has had to deal with wrist and neck issues.  Wrists blow out power and necks are often troublesome, chronic injuries.
Nolan Reimold (ZIPS; 246/322/420; .322 wOBA; 0.0 UZR; 1.0 fWAR)
Optimist: 24.  Even with his awful 2010 season, Nolan Reimold profiles as a solid average power hitter.  This team could have eight players with 20 home runs.
Pessimist: 3.  Number of seasons since 2006 that Reimold has not spent time on the disabled list.  Do you really want to count on his health?
 Next: The Pitchers

Opening Day Starters and Jason Hammel

A team's opening day starter, by itself, doesn't mean all that much. It shows who is each team's ace -- not always, but usually -- but it doesn't reveal how good the rest of a rotation actually is. And while it may be more of a charade at this point to find out a few days before spring training ends who every team's opening day starter is -- especially since no one cares about the "opening day starter" designation after that first game of the season -- it's still somewhat intriguing to see who gets the official nod.

Some teams are lucky enough to roll out a talented pitcher on opening day for a half-decade or longer. The most recent pitcher like that for the Orioles was Mike Mussina in the '90s. From 1994 to 1996 and from 1998 to 2000 (he had elbow tendinitis to start the season in 1997), Mussina got the ball on opening day. That's six times in a span of seven seasons. And that obviously wasn't out of necessity; Mussina was very, very good. It's a shame that he wasn't able to pitch in Baltimore beyond 2000.

Since Mussina, though, the Orioles haven't had a dominant force at the top of their rotation (except for maybe Erik Bedard for a couple of seasons). A handful of guys were supposed to fill that role, but for one reason or another, it just didn't work out. But this isn't a post about failed prospects, thankfully. It's just a look back at the pitchers to make opening day starts for the Orioles for the last decade. Here they are:

2012: Jake Arrieta (1.6 WAR)
2011: Jeremy Guthrie (2.0)
2010: Kevin Millwood (1.2)
2009: Jeremy Guthrie (1.7)
2008: Jeremy Guthrie (2.5)
2007: Erik Bedard (5.1)
2006: Rodrigo Lopez (1.7)
2005: Rodrigo Lopez (2.0)
2004: Sidney Ponson (2.8)
2003: Rodrigo Lopez (1.1)

There are some decent seasons sprinkled in that group, but there's just one elite performance: Bedard in 2007, before he was traded to the Mariners the following offseason. Unsurprisingly, that season was Bedard's best. He finished with a 3.16 ERA and struck out an absurd 30.2% of the batters he faced while walking 7.8% of them. That strikeout percentage was the best in all of baseball in 2007; the next closest was Scott Kazmir (26.9%). That's a fantastic feat, though he hasn't posted a strikeout percentage over 26% in any other season. And while he's been effective at times, he hasn't posted a single-season WAR above 2.1 since 2007, either.

So does Jason Hammel, this season's opening day hurler, have a chance at eclipsing Bedard's 5.1 WAR? It's unlikely, but not impossible. He was very good last season -- 3.43 ERA, 22.9 K%, 8.5 BB% -- which was a lot better than most fans were expecting, but he only pitched 118 innings because of a nagging knee injury (which he eventually needed surgery on). And thanks to an improved fastball, he induced ground balls 53.2% of the time -- a career best. A left-on-base percentage of 73.9% and home-run rate of 0.69, which were higher and lower, respectively, than his career averages, aided his strong stat line, but he wasn't overly lucky (.291 BABIP).

Hammel's work with pitching coach Rick Adair last spring to improve his two-seam fastball proved to be extremely effective. It also didn't hurt that, per Pitch F/X data, Hammel's average fastball velocity of 93.6 was the best of his career. If he's able to stay healthy, get close to the 200-inning mark, and maintain that same (or a similar) level of effectiveness with his fastball, Hammel could approach Bedard's outstanding 2007 season. He may not dominate like Bedard did in the strikeout department, but barring injury, he should at least be the Orioles' best opening day starter in more than five seasons.

And if he does pitch well and demonstrates that he can stay on the field, Hammel will present the Orioles with a difficult decision. Hammel, 30, is in his final arbitration year, meaning he's a free agent after 2013. Would the O's be willing to bring him back with a multiyear deal? It would probably make plenty of sense, depending on the price. Fortunately, the Orioles don't have to decide right now, but a big season for Hammel will certainly be beneficial to his bank account.